Sports
Miami-Indiana national title game confidential
MIAMI — Indiana is on the cusp of capping off one of the most dramatic program U-turns in the history of college football.
Miami is on the verge of completing a generational revival, as it has mostly slogged through its existence in the ACC since joining in 2004.
The No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) have been a testament to perfection all season — they are undefeated, play cleaner football than anyone in the power conferences and have become the fresh face of success in this transient era of college football. The program is seeking its first national title and hasn’t finished in the top five since 1967.
The No. 10 Hurricanes bring a superior roster in terms of pure talent, as they’ve gone from the bubble of the College Football Playoff to positioning themselves with home-field advantage for a shot at the program’s first national title since 2001. (The confluence of location and the novelty of the Hoosiers have put the average ticket price hovering around $4,000 on the secondary market.)
Who will win? We polled 25 opposing coaches, scouts and front office members who played against or studied the teams. The results were resounding, with 21 of 25 respondents picking Indiana.
Why the Hoosiers? And what’s Miami’s path to victory as nearly a touchdown underdog? The NFL scouts and opposing coaches/assistants break down the key factors looming over the game.
Who has the talent advantage?
Maybe the biggest compliment to the insta-juggernaut Curt Cignetti has created at Indiana?
The same scouts that almost unanimously favor Indiana also acknowledge Miami has a roster with more NFL talent.
How distinct is this advantage from a pure talent perspective? Using NFL draft picks as a barometer isn’t a perfect metric.
This variable is tricky, as there are players with draft decisions who could decide to return to school. But Miami projects to have 12 draftable players, although they’ll end up with fewer if the likes of tailback Mark Fletcher, left tackle Markel Bell and Ahmad Moten Sr. return, as the school has indicated to scouts. Indiana’s reality is closer to six players drafted this year.
(Ohio State had 14 players drafted last year, and typically double-digit draft picks is a hallmark of a title contender.)
Scouts and coaches point to the trenches as both Miami’s strength and likely advantage, as four of Miami’s five offensive linemen project as draft picks. But the coaches also point out that Indiana has beaten lines with better talent all year, and they wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case Monday night.
Carson Beck projects as a third- or fourth-round pick, but scouts wonder if this push to the title game, and a big game on Monday, might boost his stock. There are at least six NFL teams with overt needs at quarterback — Miami, New York Jets, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Vegas and Arizona — and Beck or Penn State’s Drew Allar is likely to be the third quarterback off the board.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the presumptive No. 1 pick and by far the best prospect on the field. Other Hoosiers who’ll hear their names called include star receiver Elijah Sarratt, corner D’Angelo Ponds and linebacker Aiden Fisher. None of those three are likely top 50 picks.
“Miami has better personnel,” said an opposing coach. “But because Miami is limited in what they do schematically, I think Mendoza will have a good day. They just need to protect him.”
What is Miami’s path to victory?
The joke among coaches is that if Miami is going to win, it’s going to be the shortest title game in history. Miami huddles, and often in the College Football Playoff didn’t approach the line of scrimmage until there were about 15 seconds left on the play clock.
Miami dominated time of possession against Ole Miss, controlling the ball for 41:22 of the game clock. It had four drives of more than 13 plays. While that time of possession came in part because of Ole Miss’ tempo, the Canes will need the tenor of this game to be similar.
A peek at what it needs to look like for the Hurricanes came on Oregon’s second drive against Indiana last round. After Dante Moore threw a pick-six on the opening drive, he calmly executed a 14-play, 75-yard drive to tie the game that took nearly eight minutes off the clock. Miami offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson — an old Air Raid disciple — will need to stay patient, run the ball and take what’s available.
The barometer early will be Miami’s run game. Fletcher has 58 carries for 395 yards in the playoff, an average of 6.8 yards per carry. He has moved piles of defenders with such consistency, it’s as if he’s angling for a Caterpillar NIL deal.
“I think Miami will shorten the game and run the ball,” said a veteran NFL scout. “I do think it’s going to be a close game. Ultimately, the Indiana quarterback is going to make more throws on third down.”
Right tackle Francis Mauigoa is the anchor of Miami’s O-line, as he projects as the highest draft pick on Miami’s offense. (Freshman Malachi Toney is the most talented player, but he’s not draft-eligible.)
At 6-foot-6 and 335 pounds, Mauigoa might end up as a guard in the NFL. But he’s a road grader who’ll need to exploit an Indiana defensive line that has lost two key defensive line stars, Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley, to injury.
One scout notes Mauigoa has the raw power and anchor to have a “high ceiling” in the NFL. He’ll be needed to dominate the point of attack to help drain the clock and keep this game low-scoring.
Can Miami have an Ohio State replay?
Perhaps the biggest statistical anomaly in this postseason came in Miami’s victory over Ohio State in the quarterfinals. The Hurricanes ended the game with zero penalties. They were the first team in CFP history to not commit a penalty.
Indiana’s identity revolves around clean, mistake-free football. Miami’s penchant for penalties has hounded it this season, other than that Ohio State game. Miami combined for 21 penalties that cost them 163 yards in losses to SMU and Louisville.
The numbers bear this out as one of the game’s biggest statistical discrepancies. Indiana is No. 2 nationally in fewest penalty yards, with 26.9 per game. Miami is No. 85 with 57.1 yards. Per ESPN Research, in four of Miami’s six one-score games this year, Miami had at least nine penalties.
None loomed larger for the Hurricanes than an unnecessary roughness call on defensive lineman Marquise Lightfoot that extended SMU’s game-tying drive that forced overtime in Miami’s loss in Dallas.
Indiana’s defense has been particularly efficient, as they’ve been called for just 13 penalties as a unit all year. Army is No. 1 with seven.
A place to watch Monday night will be the offensive line.
Indiana has not been infallible there, as it had seven pre-snap penalties in its win at Oregon. Six of them were false starts and another was a delay of game. Could similar issues loom if Miami fans can make crowd noise a factor? (The crowd projects as a 50-50 split, with the way tickets have been divided.)
Miami’s offensive line has been a strength, but it is not mistake free. It has been penalized 37 times this season, which is fourth most in the FBS, per ESPN Research. The Hurricanes have had 24 false starts, which is second most in the FBS. Miami had three false starts against Ole Miss.
Miami needs to play as it did against Ohio State to pull the upset.
The difference-maker on Indiana’s defense
One player coaches and scouts pointed to as a difference-maker is Indiana linebacker Aiden Fisher. He looks up to former Carolina Panthers linebacker Luke Kuechly and has enjoyed Kuechly’s ability to diagnose and predict plays pre-snap on ESPN’s “MNF Playbook with Next Gen Stats.”
“Just the way he sees the game is special,” Fisher told ESPN. “I actually kind of adapted some of his things this offseason during my notes and just how he breaks film down, how he sees the game.”
Fisher has earned a reputation around the Big Ten for gleaning the opposition’s plays through formations and movements. He says he’ll get close to the line of scrimmage to hear what quarterbacks say pre-snap under center, store it away and use it later in the game to call out plays.
He said he didn’t want to “give my secrets” for what he’s looking for against Miami. But he did have a favorite play this season, when he called out an upcoming tight end screen for Iowa based on the motion.
He screamed out the play to linebacker Rolijah Hardy, who tackled Iowa’s DJ Vonnahme for a 1-yard loss.
“That’s one of my favorite plays for the season, and I didn’t make it,” he said. “[Hardy] blew it up for the TFL and you can see me on film kind of pointing at my head. So that’s what gets me excited during football games. I can kind of call out your bluff and things like that.”
Fisher is a former high school quarterback. And his understanding of that side of the ball helps him hear the quarterback’s verbiage — “different things like protections, audibles and checks” — and use that information to predict plays later in the game.
Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines calls Fisher “an elite mind.”
“The thing about a quarterback and him walking up to the line of scrimmage is the quarterback is actually conveying a real thing,” Haines told ESPN. “The words matter. It start with an R and L (for right and left), East Coast, West Coast. Any team has like these conceptual things behind what they’re saying, and he can start to isolate some of those.
“If you add that to the formational tendencies, he’s going to have a pretty good idea of what you’re thinking here.”
The Heisman winner vs. a banged-up Miami secondary
The uncertainty in the secondary for Miami looms over this game, especially in the first half.
Miami defensive back Xavier Lucas will miss the first half of the game after a targeting call. Miami has another defensive back, Damari Brown, who hasn’t played since Nov. 29 and isn’t certain to play, as Mario Cristobal referred to him as “day-to-day.”
Both are key members of the secondary, as Lucas has 11 starts and Brown has five this season. They are heavy parts of Miami’s corner rotation.
Another key corner, OJ Frederique, played just seven snaps against Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. He told ESPN that he’s ready to play and “fully healthy.” He returned for the playoff against Texas A&M after not playing for nearly two months. He’s dealing with a nagging leg injury.
That’s going to leave Miami likely relying on some less experienced defensive backs, especially until Lucas returns in the second half.
True freshman corner Ja’Boree Antoine played 24 snaps against Ole Miss and 14 on defense, which were his third most in a game this year and most in a game of consequence.
Just as Ole Miss went at Antoine when he entered last week, expect Indiana to try and exploit Miami’s secondary flux early in the game.
Freshman Chris Ewald, who has played in four games and 27 total snaps, and Jadais Richard, a Vanderbilt transfer who has played in four games and has 21 snaps this year, are players to watch. Miami could also shuffle more experienced players from nickel or safety to help out.
Don’t be surprised to see Mendoza and Indiana’s deep receiving corps look to find weaknesses in Miami’s back end. Opposing coaches have viewed it as Miami’s biggest weakness all year.
“Both offenses will know what’s coming because the defenses are in the same tree,” said an opposing coach. “If you know what the other team is doing, who is more dangerous? I think Indiana when they know, they make this a high-scoring game. Miami isn’t built to score like that.”
ESPN research producers Marisa Dowling and Sopan Shah contributed to this story.
The newest AP Top 25 poll is out, featuring all three remaining unbeaten teams for the first time this season: Arizona (No. 1), Nebraska (No. 7) and Miami (Ohio) (No. 25). The RedHawks are ranked for the first time in 27 years.
The Wildcats are the unanimous No. 1 for the first time this season, receiving all 61 votes. UConn, Michigan, Purdue and Duke round out the top five, with Iowa State falling to No. 9 after two consecutive losses this past week. Michigan State replaces Vanderbilt as the final team in the top 10 after the Commodores also lost both games this past week.
North Carolina fell the furthest (eight spots), followed by the Cyclones (seven), Commodores (five) and Louisville and Georgia (three each). Tennessee, Utah State and Seton Hall dropped out and were replaced by Kansas, Saint Louis and the RedHawks.
Clemson saw the biggest rise in the rankings (four spots), with Texas Tech and Florida each climbing three spots.
Let’s take a look at the full Week 11 rankings and what’s next for each team.
All times Eastern. All stats courtesy of ESPN Research unless otherwise noted.
Previous polls: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 9 | Week 10
Previous ranking: 1
2025-26 record: 18-0
Stat to know: The Wildcats have trailed for just 11:57 total in conference play this season.
What’s next: Wednesday vs. Cincinnati, 9 p.m., FSI
Previous ranking: 3
2025-26 record: 18-1
Stat to know: This is the Huskies’ seventh season starting 18-1 or better since 1980. The last time was 2008-09, when they made the Final Four.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Villanova, 12:30 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 4
2025-26 record: 16-1
Stat to know: Michigan has won nine straight games on the road or at neutral sites, its second-longest win streak in the past 35 years. The Wolverines are one of six teams to remain undefeated away from home this season, along with Arizona, Nebraska, Miami (Ohio), Purdue and UConn.
What’s next: Tuesday vs. Indiana, 7 p.m., Peacock
Previous ranking: 5
2025-26 record: 17-1
Stat to know: Purdue has won 17 straight games against unranked opponents, its longest streak since 1986-87, when it won 20 in a row.
What’s next: Tuesday @ UCLA, 10 p.m., Peacock
Previous ranking: 6
2025-26 record: 17-1
Stat to know: Cameron Boozer now has two 30-point double-doubles this season, the most by a Duke freshman since Zion Williamson had four during the 2018-19 season. Boozer is also up to three career 30-point games; his father, Carlos, had two across his three seasons in Durham.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Wake Forest, 5:45 p.m., The CW Network
Previous ranking: 7
2025-26 record: 17-1
Stat to know: The Cougars are 43-1 (.977) at home across the past three seasons, the best home winning percentage among major conference teams over that span.
What’s next: Saturday @ Texas Tech, 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 8
2025-26 record: 18-0
Stat to know: The Cornhuskers are 7-0 in conference play for the first time since 1965-66.
What’s next: Wednesday vs. Washington, 9 p.m., BTN
Previous ranking: 9
2025-26 record: 19-1
Stat to know: Gonzaga has won 11 games by 20 or more points this season, tying with Arizona and Saint Louis for most such wins in Division I.
What’s next: Wednesday vs. Pepperdine, 9 p.m., ESPN+
Previous ranking: 2
2025-26 record: 16-2
Stat to know: Iowa State is the first team in Big 12 history to start 15-0 or better before losing consecutive games to unranked opponents. The Cyclones have now lost as an AP top-15 team to unranked Cincinnati in football, women’s basketball and men’s basketball this season.
What’s next: Tuesday vs. UCF, 7 p.m., CBSSN
Previous ranking: 12
2025-26 record: 16-2
Stat to know: Michigan State has 18 consecutive wins against unranked opponents, its longest such win streak since a 23-game run between 2012-13 and 2013-14.
What’s next: Tuesday @ Oregon, 9 p.m., FS1
Previous ranking: 13
2025-26 record: 15-3
Stat to know: Illinois has won five consecutive games against conference opponents, its longest such streak since it won six straight from Dec. 3, 2021, to Jan. 14, 2022.
What’s next: Wednesday vs. Maryland, 7 p.m., BTN
Previous ranking: 15
2025-26 record: 14-4
Stat to know: JT Toppin has the longest active double-double streak in D-I with seven straight. His 43 career double-doubles are the second most among active players (Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg has 48).
What’s next: Tuesday @ Baylor, 9 p.m., Peacock
Previous ranking: 11
2025-26 record: 16-2
Stat to know: BYU is winless against just two Big 12 schools since joining the league in 2023-24: Texas Tech (0-4) and Houston (0-2).
What’s next: Saturday vs. Utah, 5:30 p.m., Fox
Previous ranking: 16
2025-26 record: 16-2
Stat to know: Virginia has won at least 16 of its first 18 games of the season for the first time since it started 17-1 in 2018-19 (when it won the national title).
What’s next: Saturday vs. North Carolina, 2 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 10
2025-26 record: 16-2
Stat to know: Vanderbilt is the third SEC program over the past 45 seasons to start 15-0 or better and then lose consecutive games. The Commodores have done it twice in that span (also in 2007-08).
What’s next: Tuesday @ Arkansas, 9 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 19
2025-26 record: 13-5
Stat to know: This is the first time in program history that Florida has scored 90-plus points in four straight games against SEC opponents.
What’s next: Tuesday vs. LSU, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 18
2025-26 record: 13-5
Stat to know: Alabama has now won three games after trailing by double digits at halftime since Nate Oats took over in the 2019-20 season. (The Tide have lost 15 such games in that span as well.)
What’s next: Saturday vs. Tennessee, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 22
2025-26 record: 16-3
Stat to know: Clemson is now 6-0 in conference play, its second-best start since joining the ACC.
What’s next: Tuesday vs. NC State, 7 p.m., ACCN
Previous ranking: Unranked
2025-26 record: 13-5
Stat to know: Darryn Peterson is averaging 0.798 points per minute, the second most in Big 12 history (minimum five games and 20 minutes played per team game) behind Kansas State’s Michael Beasley (0.832 in 2007-08). Peterson also averages the third-most points per minute of any major conference player in the past 30 seasons, after Marquette’s Markus Howard (0.837 in 2019-20) and Beasley. Peterson trails only Tarleton’s Dior Johnson for most points per minute in D-I this season (0.967).
What’s next: Tuesday @ Colorado, 11 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 17
2025-26 record: 13-5
Stat to know: Darius Acuff Jr. has scored in double figures in 18 straight games. That’s the fourth-longest such streak by an SEC freshman to start their career over the past 20 seasons, behind Vanderbilt’s AJ Ogilvy (2007-08), Auburn’s Mustapha Heron (2016-17) and Kentucky’s Malik Monk (2016-17).
What’s next: Tuesday vs. Vanderbilt, 9 p.m., ESPN
Previous ranking: 21
2025-26 record: 15-3
Stat to know: Georgia has won two of its past three games against AP-ranked opponents after losing the previous eight.
What’s next: Tuesday @ Missouri, 9 p.m., SEC Network
Previous ranking: 14
2025-26 record: 14-4
Stat to know: North Carolina is 1-6 in games in the Pacific Time Zone in five seasons under Hubert Davis.
What’s next: Wednesday vs. Notre Dame, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Previous ranking: 20
2025-26 record: 13-5
Stat to know: Louisville has had five 100-point games this season, tying for the second-most such games within a season in program history.
What’s next: Saturday vs. Virginia Tech, 3:30 p.m., The CW Network
Previous ranking: Unranked
2025-26 record: 17-1
Stat to know: The Billikens have won 11 straight games since losing to Stanford in Palm Springs, California, in November.
What’s next: Tuesday @ Duquesne, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Previous ranking: Unranked
2025-26 record: 19-0
Stat to know: Miami (Ohio) is now tied for the second-longest single-season win streak in MAC history. The only team with a longer streak was 2001-02 Kent State, which featured future Pro Football Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates.
What’s next: Tuesday @ Kent State, 7 p.m., ESPN+
Benfica coach José Mourinho has shut down “soap opera” rumours of a potential return to Real Madrid this summer.
Madrid parted company with Xabi Alonso last week after he had less than eight months in charge and appointed Álvaro Arbeloa, coach of Madrid’s reserves, as his replacement.
Asked about speculation in Spain that Madrid are looking to bring him back for the 2026-27 campaign, Mourinho said following Benfica’s 2-0 win at Rio Ave on Saturday: “Don’t count on me for soap operas. There are many good soap operas, but they take too long.
“Then you miss an episode or two and you lose track. Don’t count on me, I don’t watch soap operas.”
Mourinho, 62, guided Madrid to a LaLiga title, and Copa del Rey and Spanish Supercup triumphs during his three seasons (2010-13) with the Spanish giants.
The former Chelsea and Manchester United manager took the reins at Benfica in September and has a contract until June 2027.
– Marcus Rashford scores, Jude Bellingham jeered – the latest at Real Madrid, Barcelona
– Kylian Mbappé only trails Cristiano Ronaldo in race to 50 LaLiga goals
Benfica, third in the Primeira Liga, 10 points adrift of leaders FC Porto, play at Juventus in Wednesday’s Champions League before hosting Mourinho’s former club Real Madrid on Jan. 28.
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Dan Graziano
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Ben Solak
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Ben Solak
ESPN
- Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
The NFL divisional round began with an incredible game in Denver on Saturday. The Bills and Broncos went to overtime, but the Broncos emerged after hitting a 23-yard field goal to win it in the extra frame. But it came at a cost; quarterback Bo Nix went down because of an ankle injury. The second game was more one-sided, as the Seahawks blew out the 49ers on Saturday night.
Sunday began with the Patriots’ win over the Texans, with New England capitalizing on four C.J. Stroud interceptions. To cap the weekend, the Rams beat the Bears on Sunday night in a wild overtime stunner.
What are the main lessons and takeaways from each divisional round matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the second round and look forward from all angles. For each divisional round game, Solak is answering one big remaining question, and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.
Let’s jump in, making sense of Matthew Stafford‘s current play, Caleb Williams‘ place in the 2024 draft class, Stroud’s performance, the Patriots’ defense, the Seahawks’ great roster, the 49ers’ decimated roster, the Nix injury news and the Bills’ playoff woes.
Jump to:
LAR-CHI | HOU-NE
SF-SEA | BUF-DEN
‘The Bears would be in the NFC Championship Game if they’d drafted Drake Maye instead of Caleb Williams.’ Overreaction?
YES, OVERREACTION! C’MON! Sure, Maye’s team is still playing and Williams’ team isn’t. And sure, part of the reason is Williams’ overtime interception that cost the Bears a chance at a game-winning field goal and gave the Rams the opportunity to win it. The variance on Williams can be maddening. He had the lowest completion percentage of any qualified quarterback in the NFL this season. His game still needs refining. But c’mon, did you see that touchdown throw that sent the game to overtime?
Caleb Williams is the reason we watch sports. This is not hyperbole. You can tell me you watch because you bet on it, or because you play fantasy, or because you were born into the particular fandom of a particular team and enjoy suffering and celebrating with like-minded individuals. Any and all of that might be true. But on a fundamental level, the reason we watch sports is to be amazed by what human beings can accomplish when they explore or exceed the limits of human potential. Williams crystallizes all of this.
Yes, Matthew Stafford and the Rams won the game. But what I’ll remember is that Sean McVay didn’t trust Stafford to make a third-down throw when one would have put away the game in the final minutes of regulation, and that Williams made one of the most incredible, impossible fourth-down passes of all time a few moments later to tie the score and send the game to OT. Williams simply can do things other people cannot.
Maye is awesome — a wonderful, wonderful young player with a bright future ahead of him that might include a Super Bowl title in his second year as a pro. He might have a better career than Williams. But if you’re a Bears fan, you aren’t wishing your team had Maye instead. Heck, Maye has taken 10 sacks and fumbled six times in two playoff games so far. It’s not like he’s immune to mistakes. Williams obviously isn’t, either, and he’ll be kicking himself that he didn’t get it done Sunday night when the chance was in front of him. But I come out of this weekend thinking I want to watch every game Williams plays again because when he plays, anything is possible.
If you’re a Bears fan, the fact that anything is possible is a massive win, especially at quarterback, where your team has struggled to find an answer for literally more than a century. You’re bummed your team’s season is over, but you cannot wait until next season because you know you have an absolute star at the most important position. Hopefully, we get to see Maye and Williams play Super Bowls against each other in the future, and we get to debate this for years to come.
In the meantime, I don’t think either team is regretting its pick. And the Bears might have the most fun and exciting player in the NFL. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why is Stafford in a funk — and can the Rams get him out of it?
Here’s the good news: The Rams have won two playoff games, both on the road. That’s hard to do. Here’s the bad news: They look like they’re barely hanging on.
Stafford had a dropback success rate of 31.8% in this game — easily his worst in any game this season. His previous low was 41.2%. The game against the Panthers last week was his fifth lowest by success rate. On a down-to-down basis, the Rams’ passing game feels like it’s reeling. Give credit to the defenses the Rams have faced. The Panthers and Bears did a great job packing the intermediate zones and forcing the Rams to attempt more passes outside the numbers. The Bears blitzed off the edge all night, moving the generally immobile Stafford off his spot and forcing him to throw from adjusted platforms. But there’s no doubt that Stafford looks off.
0:17
Rams advance to NFC championship with walk-off FG in OT
Harrison Mevis makes a 42-yard field goal to give the Rams a 20-17 win vs. the Bears.
After a pristine first drive that looked like the promise of a classic Rams terminator game, he mislocated open throws to receivers in the flats, minimizing YAC and creating incompletions. Even his one-on-one shots fell uncatchable more often than they were even within contestable range. The aging veteran started the season questionable because of his back, and it looks like the season is really catching up to him. Most players are dealing with some degree of lingering pain and injury at this point in the season, but for a veteran quarterback with back concerns, the impact is magnified.
It’s tough to believe Stafford will suddenly rediscover his midseason form in a third matchup with a Seahawks defense that gave him a ton of trouble in the first matchup and enough trouble in the second. The Rams’ passing game has enough star power elsewhere (see: Nacua, Puka) that they don’t need Stafford to consistently play at an MVP level to have success, but the margins will be extremely thin against that Seahawks D — and would be thin again should they draw the Broncos or Patriots defenses in a Super Bowl. It’s hard to trust this Rams’ passing attack moving forward. — Solak
‘The Texans need to wait at least another year before extending C.J. Stroud.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. Stroud got it together in the second half Sunday, especially considering he was playing without top wide receiver Nico Collins, starting tight end Dalton Schultz got hurt and the Texans have no run game whatsoever. But he was catastrophically bad in the first half, throwing four interceptions and putting his team into a hole from which even its stifling defense could not extract it. This performance came six days after Stroud fumbled five times and turned the ball over three times in a wild-card-round victory over the Steelers that was closer in the fourth quarter than it should have been.
This season’s Texans, who rolled into Foxborough on a 10-game win streak and with a defense playing as well as any defense east of Seattle, had a golden opportunity. A win would have advanced them to their first AFC Championship Game next Sunday against a banged-up Broncos team that’s going to be playing without its starting quarterback. Sunday was a wet, snowy, sloppy game in which the Patriots had plenty of their own turnover problems and surely could have been beaten by a team that did a better job of holding on to the ball. But the Texans were not that team, and whatever legitimate excuses Stroud might have had available to him, he played horribly. You can make a strong case that he’s the reason Houston lost.
As the No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft, Stroud is now eligible for a contract extension for the first time. To be clear: I have not heard one single indication that the Texans are planning to do anything other than extend Stroud as soon as they can. That’s almost certainly what will happen. But are we 100 percent sure it should?
Stroud’s rookie season was a revelation. And he has led the Texans to the second round of the playoffs in each of his three seasons so far. They believe they have a true franchise quarterback. But after throwing 26 touchdown passes and only five interceptions (counting playoffs) as a rookie, he has now thrown a combined 42 touchdowns and 26 interceptions (counting playoffs) in the two seasons since then. The Texans changed offensive coordinators after Stroud’s second season, in which he was sacked 52 times, and he did see improvement this season. But he still wasn’t up to his rookie-year standards, and this season will be remembered for his postseason meltdown.
I’m not saying Stroud is no good. He’s 24 years old. His rookie season might have set too high a standard for him to live up to in his second and third years. And he could recover from Sunday and have a Hall of Fame career. All I’m saying is, there’s no reason to hurry here. Stroud is signed through 2026, and the Texans have a team option for 2027 that’s a no-brainer to pick up. They could theoretically franchise-tag him in 2028 and 2029 if needed. Why not give it another year and see how he recovers from this and what improvements he makes to get back to playing the way he did as a rookie?
Teams rush into these deals far too often (hello, Dolphins!) and end up regretting them. I’m just not understanding the need to rush a Stroud extension after what we saw Sunday (and last Monday) and while Houston still has at least four more years of team control. — Graziano
The lingering question: Are we properly rating this Patriots defense after two dominant playoff performances?
A quick look at the stats: Against the Texans, the Patriors had 3.3 yards per play allowed and five takeaways. They pressured Stroud on 36% of his dropbacks, and he was 2-for-14 on those plays. Texans running backs had 18 carries for 31 yards — this, one week after the Chargers’ backs had 12 carries for 30 yards in the wild-card round. The Patriots have given up one touchdown across two playoff games, and it was a 27-yard drive off a Drake Maye turnover.
The Patriots’ defense has experienced a revitalization over the postseason in large part because of the players who have returned from injury: Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III all sat out time at the end of the regular season, and the run defense in particular has hugely benefited from the return to health in the front seven. But the Patriots have also played two remarkably below-average offensive lines, especially for playoff contenders. The Chargers’ interior has been an issue all season, and the Texans’ offensive line had barely scraped together passable play in the second half of the season before injuries caught up to them in this Patriots game.
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C.J. Stroud throws his 4th INT of the game
Carlton Davis III picks off C.J. Stroud again as the Patriots come away with their fourth interception of the first half vs. the Texans.
I have no doubt that the Patriots’ defense is a strong unit and has benefitted from more health, but I am also certain that they’ve drawn a particularly soft schedule of opposing offensive trenches, which has allowed them to dictate game state easily. The truth of the Patriots’ defense is somewhere in the middle, but it’s hard to tell exactly where. This isn’t particularly meaningful for next week, as the Patriots draw a much better offensive line in the Broncos … but New England will also see a backup quarterback in Jarrett Stidham following the injury to Bo Nix. The Patriots’ defense should have a huge advantage in that game based on quarterback play alone.
But as we potentially enter a Super Bowl run for the Patriots, we’ll be faced with a tough challenge: riddling out exactly how good this defense is playing relative to the offenses it has faced. And that also goes for the regular season. Much has been made of the Patriots’ easy schedule for weeks now. Again, I’m certain this is a good unit. But how good? Good enough to beat the Seahawks if the offense has a terrible day against the uproarious Seattle defense? Good enough to stop the high-flying offense of the Bears or Rams? Even as we wrap up Week 20, it’s a unit I’m not sure I fully appreciate, which makes estimating exactly how dominant this Patriots team is somewhat tricky. — Solak
‘The Seahawks had the best offseason of any team.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. The Seahawks went into the 2025 offseason intent on and expecting to sign Geno Smith to a contract extension. When it became apparent to them that Smith wasn’t interested in extending his deal at their numbers, they traded him to the Raiders and signed Sam Darnold. Say what you will about Darnold, but the 2025 Seahawks went 14-3 — same record as Darnold’s 2024 Vikings — and now he has a home game Jan. 25 in the NFC Championship Game.
Seahawks GM John Schneider went about his offseason the same way he would have had he landed his first choice at quarterback. He signed DeMarcus Lawrence. He signed Cooper Kupp because he’s a better blocker at this point than Tyler Lockett. He drafted Nick Emmanwori in the second round. Schneider freaking loves the second round. Even as someone who likes to see players get as much money as they can and wishes the top QBs would push harder to move the market upward for others, I still have to appreciate a philosophy like Seattle’s approach: “Do we have to pay our quarterback $50-plus million per year if he still hasn’t shown he’s that guy?”
A Seahawks employee told me after the team’s wild Week 16 victory over the Rams, “We’re trying to win championships here,” and the Seahawks obviously are living that. Seattle has lost three games all season, and the margins were four, three and two points. Two of those losses were to division rivals, one of which they eliminated Saturday. Is Darnold the second coming of Joe Montana? No. Of John Elway? No. Of Patrick Mahomes? No. But the Seahawks decided, at some point, that they intend to be the example of how to win a championship without paying great quarterback money to a pretty good quarterback because there’s a championship-caliber roster around him.
Kudos to the Seahawks for treating the QB portion of their offseason the way they would have treated any other portion of it. They didn’t get the player they wanted, but they knew they could still win with this quarterback because of everything else they do well. Hiring Mike Macdonald as head coach was a last offseason move, not a this offseason move, but it was still one that impacted their approach to this offseason. And here they still are. — Graziano
The lingering question: Will the 49ers be NFC favorites with a healthy team next season?
It’s too early to say, of course. But spin it forward for me. The Seahawks will likely be the favorite, barring some catastrophic injury between now and then. The Rams could be up there, as well, especially if they finish the NFC playoffs strong … but Matthew Stafford‘s career longevity is always going to be a question that hurts them in the futures markets. Meanwhile, the 49ers still have most of their main players under contract.
Trent Williams‘ contract is expiring, and the offensive line clearly needs help across the board. Wide receiver is a little thin with the Brandon Aiyuk situation unclear and Jauan Jennings approaching free agency. But that young defense, which was hammered by injuries this season, will return Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. And Yetur Gross-Matos and Jordan Elliott are the only two expiring contracts there. This group will benefit from postseason experience next season and will presumably add to the pass rush.
Of course, the 49ers will see if they get through the offseason without losing defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was key to their surprising success despite all the injuries. Saleh has interviewed with the Titans and Ravens already and is a deservedly hot name on the head coaching circuit. If he gets a job, San Francisco will be forced back on the defensive coordinator carousel.
0:16
Seahawks pick off Brock Purdy in 3rd quarter
Brock Purdy tries to throw down the middle, but gets intercepted by the 49ers’ Ernest Jones IV.
It’s also worth noting that the 49ers, who had a very easy schedule entering this season, will play a third-place schedule next season despite their postseason appearance. With only a few moves in offseason housekeeping and a regression to the mean in injury luck, the Niners should be considered a deep NFC playoff team once again. — Solak
‘The Broncos are done without Bo Nix.’ Overreaction?
No, not an overreaction. The Broncos barely won Saturday’s game. Buffalo had to turn the ball over five times — including once in overtime — or else Nix might not have broken his ankle in the first place. And certainly, without Nix’s clutch play in the fourth quarter and overtime, Denver wouldn’t have won and advanced to a home AFC Championship Game.
But now? You want me to believe the Broncos are going to beat Houston or New England with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback? And even if they do, does anyone believe they can then win the Super Bowl? I’m sorry, Jarrett, but it just doesn’t feel to me like this Broncos team is good enough to pull a 2017 Eagles and win this thing without their starting quarterback.
The Broncos have a good defense, yes. We know this about them. But they weren’t super awesome Saturday against a Bills team that moved the ball extremely well between turnovers, and they haven’t been elite in the way that defenses such as Seattle and Houston have been — at least not over the second half of this season. The Broncos do run the ball better than most think, but c’mon. We all watched this game. The Bills handed the Broncos 10 points at the tail end of the first half, then three more at the start of the second, and Buffalo still had a fourth-quarter lead that Nix found a way to overcome. Nix isn’t a perfect player, but what he can do with his legs and what he can do in the clutch are separating factors that Stidham just doesn’t offer.
The Broncos defense is going to have to play the game of a lifetime next week — even if it’s against Houston’s inconsistent offense — if it wants to lug this team into the Super Bowl. And even if it collects a bunch of turnovers and sneaks into the big game, Denver is then going to have to beat a team that has had two weeks off and likely still has its starting quarterback.
It’s a shame. It would have been fun to see what Sean Payton and this Broncos team could have done. Payton could have been the first coach to win the Super Bowl with two different teams. But in the wake of the Nix injury news, all of that is a lot harder to imagine. — Graziano
The lingering question: Why do the Bills keep losing in the postseason?
I have no idea. What is there to say? The Bills turned the football over five times, and no team that turns the ball over five times deserves to be in the game at all. Josh Allen‘s end-of-half fumble to let the Broncos go up 20-10 was an inexcusable mistake. He was stripped to start the second half to give Denver an even bigger lead. He threw a pick immediately off a key defensive takeaway.
It felt like Allen was digging the hole, and then as always, Allen was the one to pull the Bills back out. But there were too many misses. Allen failed to connect with Khalil Shakir on a third-and-8 screen in the red zone that could have allowed him to score, and he missed an open Dawson Knox at the end of regulation on a throw that could have walked the game off. Allen was simultaneously one of the biggest reasons the Bills were still in that game, while also being one of the biggest reasons they fell short.
The Bills have now made it to seven consecutive postseasons with Allen at the helm, which means they’ve suffered seven postseason losses. There’s really no unifying factor on the field, though. Wide receiver talent was a big deal in this game; Allen was 0-for-9 throwing 20-plus yards downfield, and downfield production is often a receiver stat. The pass rush has been an issue and was again in this game; Nix was pressured on 20% of his dropbacks, and the Bills needed to send blitzes to get home. Defensive back depth was also a big deal; two of Nix’s three touchdowns came targeting backup defensive backs.
0:19
Wil Lutz sends Broncos to AFC Championship Game on winning FG in OT
Wil Lutz nails the game-winning field goal in overtime to send the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game.
Still, when you’ve lost seven playoff games, there are some obvious unifying factors — coach Sean McDermott, GM Brandon Beane and Allen. The Bills’ triumvirate has been in place for the better part of a decade and has yet to get over the hump. Whether fair or unfair, the buck stops at the top, and the fact that the Bills have failed to make a Super Bowl in Allen’s tenure despite seven postseason appearances is an enormous failure.
If the Bills make changes, I’d totally get it. If they don’t, I’d totally get it, too. They’ve been so close so many times. What a devastating loss. — Solak
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