Welcome to The Playbook for Week 10, which kicks off Thursday with the Raiders at the Broncos.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

LV-DEN | ATL-IND | NYG-CHI | BUF-MIA | BAL-MIN | CLE-NYJ | NE-TB
NO-CAR | JAX-HOU | ARI-SEA | LAR-SF | DET-WAS | PIT-LAC | PHI-GB

Projected score: Broncos 28, Raiders 15

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, J.K. Dobbins, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: Troy Franklin has seen eight-plus targets in three straight games and now trails Sutton by only one (65-64) for the team lead. Of course, Sutton has been substantially more productive, turning his usage into a 38-566-4 receiving line (13.4 fantasy PPG), compared to a 37-385-4 line for Franklin (11.6 PPG). Franklin’s 58% catch rate and 6.0 yards per target have him sitting 40th among receivers in yards despite ranking 17th in targets.

Franklin sits top eight at the position in both end zone targets and air yards, which provides him with plenty of upside, but the problem is that his two big games (24-plus fantasy points in both) have not been enough to offset his seven dud weeks (under 13.0 in all of them, averaging 7.6 PPG). Franklin does have a good Week 10 matchup (more on that in a second), but he remains a very boom/bust flex.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Denver’s receivers against a struggling Raiders pass defense that overhauled its secondary last week. Starting perimeter corner Kyu Blu Kelly was replaced by third-round rookie Darien Porter and primary slot Darnay Holmes was replaced by undrafted rookie Greedy Vance and more three-safety looks. The result was the Jaguars’ shorthanded receiver room putting up 185 yards, the second most the Raiders have allowed to a WR room this season. The Raiders now sit top five on the season in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed to receivers. Sutton, Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr. and Pat Bryant should be upgraded.

Over/under: 43.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 89% (Highest)

Projected score: Colts 29, Falcons 20

Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Kyle Pitts Sr.

Fantasy scoop: Pitts a lineup lock? It’s not hard to justify, considering (A) his recent usage (B) two top tight ends on a bye and (C) a terrific Week 10 matchup. Pitts has handled seven-plus targets in three straight games and sits top five among tight ends in routes, target share, targets and catches. He hasn’t seen enough goal line work (one TD and one end zone target), but he’s still 11th at the position in fantasy PPG.

Pitts, who has 13-plus fantasy points in three of his past five outings, will face a Colts defense that sits top five in targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Indianapolis has allowed one TD and 19-plus fantasy points to tight ends in four straight, including 20-plus-point efforts by Oronde Gadsden II and Trey McBride.

Shadow Report: Jaylon Jones made his 2025 debut on Sunday and successfully shadowed DK Metcalf. Jones aligned against Metcalf on 22 of his 33 routes, including 21 of 23 on the perimeter. Pittsburgh’s top receiver was held to 6 yards on four targets, totaling 2.6 fantasy points. It’s possible Jones shadows London this week as Sauce Gardner gets acclimated to the Colts’ scheme, but either way, London will have his hands full against the Colts’ new-look perimeter corner situation. The Colts have allowed the second-most receptions and eighth-most fantasy points to receivers, but the recent improvements suggest this will be a tough assignment for London and Darnell Mooney.

Over/under: 49.3 (7th highest)
Win probability: Colts 80% (3rd highest)

Projected score: Bears 28, Giants 27

Lineup locks: Jaxson Dart, D’Andre Swift, Wan’Dale Robinson, Rome Odunze

Fantasy scoop: In the Giants’ first full game without Cam Skattebo, the duo of Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary formed a near-even backfield committee. Singletary surprisingly led the way, handling eight carries and two targets on 31 snaps (16 routes). Tracy managed five carries and four targets on 25 snaps (14 routes).

Tracy was expected to operate as the lead back (as he did most of last season), but especially after Singletary outplayed him (51 yards to Tracy’s 37), we need to plan as if this will be a near-even split for the time being. Week 10 presents a solid matchup against a Bears defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fifth highest) to RBs. Both backs are best viewed as flex options, with Tracy the slightly preferred option.

Shadow Report: If Paulson Adebo returns from injury this week, he’s a candidate to shadow Odunze. New York’s top corner traveled with Terry McLaurin in Week 1 (McLaurin scored 4.7 fantasy points), A.J. Brown in Week 6 (14.0) and, prior to leaving injured, Courtland Sutton in Week 7 (8.9, prior to Adebo’s departure). New York continues to struggle against receivers (top seven in catches, yards and fantasy points allowed), so while Odunze’s ceiling would be limited in this scenario, he remains a fantasy starter. Note that if Adebo remains out (not to mention No. 2 CB Cor’Dale Flott), this will be a plus matchup across the board for the Chicago passing game.

Shadow Report: Upgrade the Giants’ wide receivers against a Chicago pass defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers. After surrendering 17-plus fantasy points to three Bengals receivers Sunday, the Bears have allowed 13 TDs (second most) and 9.8 yards per target (second highest) to the position. Chicago remains very short-handed at corner with Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon on IR, which sets up Robinson, Darius Slayton and Ray-Ray McCloud III with a terrific matchup against Tyrique Stevenson, Nahshon Wright, Nick McCloud and C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Over/under: 55.2 (Highest)
Win probability: Bears 56% (11th highest)

Projected score: Bills 30, Dolphins 20

Last week saw Kylian Mbappé finally become the proud recipient of the European Golden Shoe award that he actually won months ago by finishing as the top goal scorer of the continent’s top divisions in the 2024-25 season.

Having officially claimed the award back in May, the France striker was belatedly presented with his trophy before Real Madrid‘s LaLiga fixture against Valencia last weekend.

Mbappé scored 31 league goals last campaign to ensure that he added his name to a star-studded list of previous European Golden Shoe winners. He also became only the third Blancos player to earn the prestigious award behind club idols Hugo Sánchez and Cristiano Ronaldo, who claimed the award three times as a Madrid player and once with Manchester United.

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A whole host of other elite goal scorers have also won the Golden Shoe since its inception in 1967-68, with Eusébio taking the inaugural prize before the likes of Gerd Müller, Marco van Basten, Hristo Stoichkov, Ronaldo, Thierry Henry, Lionel Messi, Luis Suárez, Robert Lewandowski and Harry Kane, who won the award in 2023-24.

However, for all the heavyweights to have hoisted the Golden Shoe in the past, the chase for the 2025-26 award is not being led by Erling Haaland or Mbappé, but by a comparatively obscure striker by the name of Darko Lemajic, who plays in Latvia with Rigas Futbola Skola (RFS) and is narrowly ahead of his rivals in the race.

The 32-year-old is currently leading the pursuit for the 2025-26 European Golden Boot this season, having scored 28 goals already. However, the Latvian Virsliga is essentially a summer league that usually runs between March and November. Therefore, Lemajic has had 35 league games to amass his impressive tally while the likes of Haaland, Mbappé et al are roughly only 10 games into their domestic campaigns.

How the European Golden Shoe award works

It’s also necessary to take the manner in which the European Golden Shoe leaderboard is calculated into account. Rather than the outright number of goals scored by an individual player, since 1997 the award has been decided using a weighted points system that assigns various difficulty multipliers based on the perceived competitiveness of the league in question.

Using UEFA’s coefficient rankings, the system dictates that goals scored by a player in one of Europe’s “top five” leagues were scored in more challenging circumstances and are therefore multiplied by a factor of two and converted into points. Goals scored in European league competitions further down the coefficient rankings (between 6-22) are multiplied by a factor of 1.5, whereas goals scored in leagues thereunder (22 and below) are multiplied by a factor of 1.

That means that Lemajic’s 28 goals in the Virsliga are worth 28 points in the standings (having been multiplied by one) and Haaland and Mbappé’s 13 goals apiece are worth 26 points, having been multiplied by two. So the latter pair are already just two points behind the RFS target man despite having scored fewer than half as many goals.

It is also why an inordinate number of players from the Scandinavian leagues are nestled in the top 10, as they also largely play to summer schedules with many of their seasons having already come to a close ahead of the cold winter months.

Lemajic still has one league game of his season to play, meaning he could well add to his tally before things wrap up over in the Latvian top flight.

Below is a rundown of the top 10 as it stands.

10. Harry Kane, Bayern Munich (12 goals, 24 points)

Carrying on his incredible form from last season, Kane has 12 league goals in just nine Bundesliga games this season, meaning that he is likely to ascend the 2025-26 European Golden Shoe leaderboard in the weeks and months to come. Should the England captain successfully maintain his formidable domestic goal-scoring rate, there is every chance he can reclaim the award from Mbappé come the final count.

9. Nahir Besara, Hammarby IF (17 goals, 25.5 points)

Hammarby are second in the Swedish Allsvenskan with one matchday still to play and Besara is one of three players who are level at the top of the league’s goal-scoring charts. The 34-year-old’s goals, however, have not been enough to prevent the Stockholm club, which is co-owned by Zlatan Ibrahimovic, from finishing a distance behind upstart minnows Mjällby AIF, who claimed the 2025 title in sensational fashion.

8. Ibrahim Diabate, GAIS (17 goals, 25.5 points)

The second of the three players atop the Allsvenskan goal-scoring charts, Diabate has 17 goals for GAIS, who will finish third narrowly behind Hammarby and therefore qualify for the UEFA Conference League qualifying round as a result.

7. August Priske, Djurgården (17 goals, 25.5 points)

The third and final striker from the 2025 Allsvenskan Golden Boot race, Denmark under-20 international Priske hit 17 goals for Djurgården.

6. Kasper Høgh, Bodo/Glimt (17 goals, 25.5 points)

With the Norwegian Eliteserien running between May and November like many Scandinavian leagues, Høgh is joint-level top scorer in the 2025 with a handful of games remaining. His Bodo/Glimt side are currently one point behind leaders Viking FK at the top of the table with time running out, despite having led the way for the majority of the campaign.

5. Daniel Karlsbakk, Sarpsborg FK (17 goals, 25.5 points)

Karlsbakk is the man level-pegging with Høgh in the race for Eliteserien Golden Boot, though Sarpsborg’s campaign has been far less dramatic with the club — which was only formed 17 years ago — bobbing around in ninth place with just four fixtures remaining.

4. Klaemint Olsen, NSI Runavik (26 goals, 26 points)

There’s every chance you’re not au fait with the manner in which the 2025 Faroe Islands Premier League season played out, but we’re here to inform you that Runavik finished third, some 13 points behind eventual title winners KI Klaksvik. They can at least take some solace in the fact that their star striker Olsen managed to comfortably outscore KI’s Pall Klettskard to power his way to the top of the scoring charts.

3. Kylian Mbappé, Real Madrid (13 goals, 26 points)

With just 11 games played this season, Mbappé looks to be taking his defense of the European Golden Shoe seriously. The 26-year-old France international is already six goals clear of his closest rival at the peak of the LaLiga scoring chart for 2025-26 after finding the net at least once in each of his last eight consecutive league outings for Los Blancos.

2. Erling Haaland, Manchester City (13 goals, 26 points)

Another huge talent who is scoring for fun this season, Haaland has made it his business to mercilessly bully Premier League defenders over the course of the 2025-26 season so far, scoring 11 goals in 13 league games for City. As if to further cement his credentials, the Norway international is also on the brink of becoming the fastest player ever to reach 100 Premier League goals, with another brace enough to smash Alan Shearer’s 30-year-old record.

1. Darko Lemajic, Rigas Futbola Skola (28 goals, 28 points)

Standing at 6-foot-6, Lemajic is an imposing striker who has definitely made his presence felt in the Latvian top flight. The Serbian is in his second stint with Rigas Futbola Skola having spent a couple of years in Belgium with KAA Gent, but spent the 2025 season scoring for fun as his side finished runners-up, within five points of eventual title-winners Riga FC. So potent was Lemajic that he actually scored twice as many goals as the next best marksman in the league, with Ingars Pulis of FK Tukums 2000 scoring 16 goals to finish second in the running.

Tottenham Hotspur defender Micky van de Ven is of interest to Real Madrid, while Barcelona‘s Eric García is a target for Paris Saint-Germain. Join us for the latest transfer news and rumors from around the globe.

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TRENDING RUMORS

– Real Madrid hold a “genuine interest” in Tottenham Hotspur defender Micky van de Ven, according to TEAMtalk. Spurs have no intention of losing the 24-year-old leave — who hit the headlines this week for his stunning solo goal against FC Copenhagen — but the door could be opened if they fail to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League, with Paris Saint-Germain also closely monitoring the situation. Meanwhile, Footmercato reports that Bayern Munich centre-back Dayot Upamecano is Real Madrid’s priority for the summer and already has a verbal agreement to join Los Blancos as a free agent. The report adds that the 27-year-old has a contract extension offer from Bayern and is being closely monitored by Paris Saint-Germain. Liverpool‘s Ibrahima Konaté still wants to join Real Madrid, is also being monitored by PSG and has an offer to extend his contract at Anfield past the summer but is no longer Los Blancos‘ priority.

– Paris Saint-Germain are focusing on Barcelona‘s Eric García as they look to sign a versatile defender, as reported by L’Equipe, with this coming amid injury concerns for Les Parisiens after Achraf Hakimi became the latest player to be forced out of action. García’s contract expires in the summer, but if a deal progresses smoothly the Ligue 1 club could look to negotiate a fee for a winter transfer rather than waiting for the 24-year-old to become a free agent in the summer.

– Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea would all be interested in signing Juventus winger Kenan Yildiz if the opportunity arises, according to TEAMtalk, although they add that the Bianconeri expect him to stay. There could be a chance that the 20-year-old moves as his current wage equates to around £25,000 per week and he is looking for a pay rise that could quadruple that figure. Even so, Yildiz is keen to stay and negotiations will continue when Juventus have appointed a new sporting director.

– Liverpool and Bayern Munich are the frontrunners to sign Crystal Palace‘s Marc Guéhi as a free agent next summer, according to Diario AS. England international Guéhi wants to move to Anfield after his summer transfer fell through, but Bayern are determined to at least try to sign him. Real Madrid have also been linked with the England international, but AS reports that the 25-year-old’s wage and signing bonus demands are too high.

– Napoli are assessing various options to strengthen their midfield in January, reports Calciomercato, who suggest that they could reignite an interest in Manchester United‘s Kobbie Mainoo and Juventus’ Fabio Miretti after looking at both in the summer. Outside of that, they have have been linked with Roma’s Lorenzo Pellegrini with his contract expiring at the end of the season, while they could also move for Internazionale‘s Davide Frattesi and Atalanta‘s Éderson having held a long-term interest in both of them.

EXPERT TAKE

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OTHER RUMORS

– Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea are keeping an eye on Cologne winger Said El Mala. (Football Insider)

– Bayern Munich will face stiff competition from the Premier League for Feyenoord right-back Givairo Read. (TEAMtalk)

– Manchester City are open to January offers for Nathan Aké worth around £25m amid interest from Crystal Palace, Everton and Fulham. (TEAMtalk)

– Everton will look to re-sign Tottenham Hotspur forward Richarlison rather than moving for Al Ahli’s Ivan Toney. (Football Insider)

– AC Milan are monitoring Strasbourg’s Joaquin Panichelli and continue to look at Roma’s Artem Dovbyk as they consider signing a striker. (Corriere dello Sport)

– AC Milan have joined Internazionale and other top European clubs in showing an interest in Freiburg goalkeeper Noah Atubolu. The Rossoneri also see Cagliari’s Elia Caprile and Toulouse’s Guillaume Restes as candidates but Parma’s Zion Suzuki is losing ground. (Calciomercato)

– Juventus and the City Football Group have contacted Houston Dynamo about United States youth midfielder Brooklyn Raines. The 20-year-old could also make a move within MLS. (The Athletic)

– Bayer Leverkusen will trigger the €5m-€6m re-sign clause to bring Kerim Alajbegovic back from RB Salzburg. (Sport Bild)

– VfB Stuttgart are interested in West Ham United striker Niclas Füllkrug if loan terms can be agreed. (TEAMtalk)

– RB Leipzig are willing to let Timo Werner, Lukas Klostermann, Amadou Haidara and Kevin Kampl leave in January without any major negotiations around the fee, as they have a combined salary of around €30m-per-year. (Philipp Hinze)

– A club from LaLiga is preparing a €10m offer for 21-year-old Boca Juniors centre-back Lautaro Di Lollo. (Ekrem Konur)

– Juventus are planning to extend 18-year-old midfielder Nicolo Milia‘s contract until 2029. (Nicolò Schira)