Business
Pre-Budget jitters blamed for surprise contraction in economy
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has come under further pressure as pre-Budget worries and tax hike speculation was widely blamed for an unexpected contraction in the economy during October.
Official figures showed the UK economy shrank for the second month running in October, contracting by 0.1% following a 0.1% decline in September.
Most economists had been expecting a rise of 0.1% for October on hopes of a manufacturing bounceback led by Jaguar Land Rover’s (JLR) recovery from a major cyber attack.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product (GDP) fell as car manufacturing activity only made a “slight” recovery from the woes at JLR, with the services sector weighed down as consumers held back spending on the high street before the Budget, delivered on November 26.
The data shows the UK economy has now not grown since June, with GDP either flat or falling in the past four months.
Economists said the weaker-than-expected figures would reinforce hopes of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week in what would be a welcome pre-Christmas boost to households.
In the three months to October, the economy shrank by 0.1% after growth of 0.1% in the three months to September, according to the ONS.
Many businesses have recently indicated that activity in the economy slowed in the lead-up to the Budget as speculation over possible tax measures grew.
Barret Kupelian, chief economist at PwC, said: “Some of this weakness still reflects the cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, which knocked car output earlier in the autumn, but the bigger story is that speculation around the autumn Budget kept households and businesses in wait-and-see mode.
“Given the timing of the Budget, November’s GDP print is likely to look similarly subdued before any post-Budget effects start to show up.”
Some experts have said weak recent growth was largely driven by rampant speculation in the run up to the Budget.
Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said last month the prolonged worries over the Budget and leaks over possible tax hikes had “caused businesses and consumers to hunker down”.
Earlier this week, Ms Reeves hit out at “too many leaks” in the run-up to Budget when questioned by a committee of MPs.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said the latest GDP blow was “a direct result of Labour’s economic mismanagement”.
He said: “For months, Rachel Reeves has misled the British public. She said she wouldn’t raise taxes on working people – she broke that promise again. She insisted there was a black hole in the public finances – but there wasn’t.”
The ONS data The data revealed that month-on-month activity in car production jumped 9.5% higher in October, but this was only a partial recovery from the 28.6% plunge in September as the JLR cyberattack sent shockwaves through the sector.
Car production activity remained 21.8% lower than in August.
JLR was forced to pause production of its cars for more than a month after being targeted by hackers, having a knock-on impact for the wider sector and resulting in a costly recovery.
It gradually resumed production through October.
Widespread pressure in the rest of the economy also weighed on the GDP outturn, with output down 0.3% across the dominant services sector – including a 1.1% drop for retail – and a 0.6% fall across construction.
A Treasury spokesperson said: “We are determined to defy the forecasts on growth and create good jobs, so everyone is better off, while also helping us invest in better public services.”
Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the recent “Budget chaos” through November is likely to hit growth through that month too, which could see GDP contract by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2026.
He said: “Weak GDP adds to the reasons for the Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates next week.
“Rate setters would need a huge surprise in inflation and the labour market data published next week to stop a hike.”
NEW DELHI: The West Asia conflict is pushing govt to look at a faster transition towards renewable energy, including the possibility of increasing ethanol blending in petrol from 20-25%, although in a calibrated manner. This will come along with increased refining capacity within the country, so that there is a buffer in the system and greater domestic resilience, those familiar with the discussions said, pointing out that sustaining refineries at 100% capacity is not sustainable.While Barmer refinery has begun operations, expansion at Numaligarh is underway and work on integrated refineries on the west coast is also under focus. Apart from a mega refinery in Maharashtra, a new facility in Gujarat is also planned.Officials said rising use of renewables, biofuels and hydrogen in the energy mix was no longer just an environmental issue, but a strategic necessity in a situation like the present one, where the military conflict in West Asia has disrupted global energy supplies, triggering a supply crisis and a surge in oil and gas prices.According to officials, 20% ethanol blending has helped India save 4.5 crore barrels of crude annually and reduce foreign exchange outflow by around ₹1.5 lakh crore so far. Given the concerns over fuel efficiency and impact on vehicles, govt is expected to take a gradual approach that addresses the anxiety on ethanol blending. The third pillar on energy is expanding the strategic petroleum reserves.
Millions of car finance payouts are in jeopardy after the UK’s financial watchdog indicated its compensation scheme faces significant delays, changes, or even collapse.
This uncertainty stems from four legal challenges against the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
The FCA has advised motor finance firms to prepare for the possibility that its redress scheme, which could see an average payout of £829, may not proceed.
The regulator stated that while a hearing date is unclear, these cases are unlikely to be heard before October.
In the meantime, it is in discussions about the “possibility of suspending some elements” of its compensation scheme, while still urging lenders to prepare for payouts.
But the regulator said it was also considering its options should parts of the scheme be quashed by the courts, including proceeding with a revised version or asking lenders to plan for a scenario where “there would be no scheme”.
This could mean lenders need to be ready to respond to complaints from car finance customers individually, rather than under the rules of an industry-wide programme set by the FCA.
“Many people will be frustrated that the legal action will delay payouts due to begin this year,” the FCA said.
“We remain committed to ensuring consumers receive any compensation owed as promptly as possible.”
The FCA set out the final details of its compensation scheme in March, which it estimated could cost the industry about £9.1 billion in total.
It had been expecting millions of claims to be paid out this year and the vast majority settled by the end of 2027.
The financial services arms of carmakers Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz and the car finance arm of French bank Credit Agricole, as well as Consumer Voice, a group representing consumers, are asking the courts to quash the scheme, arguing the rules are unlawful.
“Between the four separate legal challenges, it is claimed in effect that the FCA’s approach to establishing the schemes has been both unduly favourable to consumers and unduly favourable to lenders,” the watchdog said.
At least one claim alleges that the FCA has breached the rights of lenders under the 1998 Human Rights Act, according to the watchdog.
Despite the uncertainty of the legal cases, the watchdog is still advising consumers to complain directly to their lender if they think they might be owed compensation, which they can do for free using a template letter on its website.
The federal government has increased petrol and diesel prices by nearly Rs15 per litre each for the next week.
In a notification issued on Friday, the Petroleum Division said new fuel rates will come into effect from May 9.
The price of petrol has jumped from Rs399.86 to Rs414.78, while the HSD price increased from Rs399.58 to Rs414.58 per litre.
This marks the third consecutive increase in petrol and diesel prices after cumulative hikes of Rs33.28 on petrol and Rs46.16 on diesel over the previous two weeks.
The government has been reviewing petroleum prices every Friday night amid global oil market volatility linked to the US-Iran conflict.
Global oil prices were up more than 1% on Friday after renewed fighting broke out between the US and Iran, threatening a shaky ceasefire and dashing hopes for progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas transit route.
Brent crude futures were up $1.41, or 1.41%, at $101.47 a barrel as of 0123 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude futures rose by $1.12, or 1.18%, to $95.93 a barrel. At the market open prices had risen by more than 3%.
Petrol is mainly used by commuters in small vehicles, rickshaws and two-wheelers. Higher fuel prices significantly impact the budgets of middle and lower-middle-class households, who rely on petrol for daily travel.
On the other hand, a significant portion of the transport sector relies on high-speed diesel.
Its price is considered inflationary since it is predominantly used in heavy goods transport vehicles, trucks, buses, trains, and agricultural machinery such as tractors, tube wells, and threshers.
The consumption of high-speed diesel particularly contributes to the increased prices of vegetables and other food items.
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