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Reimagining our economy in the AI age | The Express Tribune
1733130350-0/Untitled-design-(76)1733130350-0-640x480.webp "Reimagining our economy in the AI age | The Express Tribune")
FIR disruptions, shifting trade rules demand a China-linked, innovation-driven growth reset
ISLAMABAD:
The Fourth Industrial Revolution (FIR) is taking shape. Technological innovation, artificial intelligence (AI) and the application of new methods are reshaping the basic contours of the economy. It has challenged traditional economic wisdom and production models.
The FIR has triggered changes in total factor productivity as well as in the factors of production themselves. AI is transforming both total and industrial productivity by reshaping skill sets, altering production costs and redefining competitiveness. Estimates suggest that AI can reduce costs by up to 25%, improve efficiency by 10-50% and save time required to solve complex issues and make decisions. However, AI will also exert pressure on traditional labour markets, leading to job enhancement, elimination, or new opportunities.
At the same time, the global economic order is changing. US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the West’s insistence on maintaining hegemonic control have fast-tracked these changes. The Global South, led by China, has refused to accept hegemonic practices. Therefore, the global economic order is adjusting and remains in a state of flux.
The most visible change is taking place in global trade structures. The multilateral trading system built around the World Trade Organisation is under strain. The so-called rules-based order is weakening, while unilateralism and protectionism are increasingly becoming the norm.
These changes call on every country, including Pakistan, to reimagine its economic and trade strategies. For Pakistan, this task is challenging given that inflation has begun to rise again. The financial crisis, including circular debt and foreign debt, remains unresolved. Agricultural growth is declining due to policy distortions and governance failures. The rebasing of the economy in 2021-22 revealed that the industrial sector’s share of GDP declined from 20.9% to 19.5%. The incumbent government has been unable to reverse this trend.
The social development situation is equally troubling. According to the Labour Force Survey 2024-25, unemployment among educated youth remains high. The unemployment rate stands at 11.9% among master’s and PhD holders, 10.9% among graduates and 12.5% among those with intermediate education. In education, 26.2 million children are out of school, while millions more are enrolled in madrassas without access to formal or technical education. These challenges reinforce poverty levels, which the World Bank has estimated at 44.5%.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan must revive its economy. Conventional reform approaches and incremental policy adjustments will not suffice. The changes underway are structural and unprecedented. How? Historically, technological innovation has complemented human labour rather than competing with it. AI, however, is the first major invention to pose a direct challenge to human employment by disrupting job markets. Pakistan therefore needs to fundamentally reimagine its economic model. Policies must address current challenges, revive growth, ensure sustainable development and enable Pakistan to enter the FIR with confidence and dignity.
Exports have traditionally been prescribed as the primary engine of growth and economic revival. Pakistan continues to rely on this approach to generate employment and ease financial stress. However, under current global conditions – characterized by protectionism, unilateral trade measures and tariff wars – this strategy faces serious constraints. Structural weaknesses, including a narrow industrial base, weak branding capacity and a deteriorating agricultural sector, further complicate the task.
In this context, Pakistan’s most viable option lies in deeper integration into global supply chains, particularly those linked to advanced economies. This requires addressing structural deficiencies. Pakistan has an excellent opportunity to execute this policy through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the recently signed Action Plan with China. Several sectors, including textiles, minerals and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), offer scope for supply-chain integration.
The textile sector illustrates this potential. Despite being a major export industry, it remains heavily dependent on contract manufacturing for foreign brands and lags behind in brand development and global market presence. China, by contrast, has developed a complete textile supply-chain ecosystem. Collaboration with China offers Pakistan an opportunity to move up the value chain. A recent example is the establishment of a textile-focused special economic zone in Lahore by a Chinese firm, which has invited other Chinese companies to invest. These firms will manufacture products currently imported by Pakistan, including synthetic fibres and chemicals. Chinese companies also bring expertise in modern machinery, the Internet of Things and AI-enabled production systems, which can help Pakistan conserve foreign exchange and expand industrial capacity.
The mineral sector presents another strategic opportunity. Pakistan possesses vast mineral resources but lacks the technical capacity for exploration and processing and remains dependent on imported machinery. China dominates global mineral and machinery supply chains, making it a natural partner for supply-chain integration or joint ventures. Encouragingly, cooperation agreements in this sector have already been signed, providing a foundation for progress. Agriculture also has the potential to drive growth, generate employment and reverse development challenges. However, poor governance, low-quality inputs, structural inefficiencies and limited modernisation continue to constrain productivity. While many countries have moved beyond basic mechanisation to adopt AI, drones and precision agriculture, Pakistan remains among low-productivity agricultural economies.
To unlock this potential, Pakistan must reverse current trends. Building strong linkages with China’s agricultural sector, particularly in inputs, is essential. Access to high-quality seeds alone can substantially increase output and exportable surplus. Similar cooperation can be extended to farm mechanisation, livestock development and AI-based agricultural applications.
At the same time, Pakistan must prepare for the broader demands of the FIR. This revolution will be driven by scientific advancement, digital technologies and AI. Innovation will be the key determinant of competitiveness. Countries with strong innovation ecosystems will be better positioned to benefit. Unfortunately, Pakistan lags behind on most indicators of AI and innovation. It lacks an AI hardware industry, including semiconductors and related components, while software development remains limited. In global innovation rankings, Pakistan consistently performs poorly due to weak human capital and an underdeveloped research ecosystem.
Investment in these areas is therefore critical. Through CPEC and the Action Plan, Pakistan has an opportunity to build a technological and innovation base with Chinese support. Cooperation should be implemented without delay, particularly in agriculture, research and development and technology deployment. However, caution is required. The adoption of AI and advanced technologies can disrupt labour markets, especially in agriculture, textiles and SMEs.
THE WRITER IS A POLITICAL ECONOMIST AND VISITING RESEARCH FELLOW AT HEBEI UNIVERSITY, CHINA
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Christian Eich of Genpact highlights India’s rapid AI adoption, stressing that workforce adaptability, not just technology, will drive competitive advantage in supply chain.
AI Impact Summit 2026 begins today in India
A senior supply chain executive has spotlighted the growing visibility of artificial intelligence adoption in India, arguing that the real competitive edge lies not in AI itself, but in how quickly professionals learn to work alongside it.
In a recent LinkedIn post, Christian Eich, Vice President Supply Chain and Partner at Genpact, reflected on the rapid pace of AI integration during a visit to India. “Let’s face it, AI will replace some jobs. But it’s also reshaping roles, creating new ones, and raising the bar on skills,” he wrote, adding that the key differentiator will be how fast people adapt to the technology.
AI company leaders are arriving in India to mark their presence in AI Impact Summit 2026, which is happening between February 16-20, 2026.
AI Momentum Becomes Increasingly Visible In India
Eich noted that while jobs in India are not directly comparable to those in other regions, the momentum around AI adoption is “striking” and increasingly visible. His comments align with broader industry observations that India is emerging as a major hub for AI experimentation and deployment, particularly in technology services and global capability centers.
India’s large digital workforce, expanding startup ecosystem, and growing enterprise investment in automation have accelerated the shift. From AI-powered customer service platforms to advanced analytics in supply chains and manufacturing, the technology is being embedded across functions rather than confined to pilot projects.
Skills, Not Software, As The Real Differentiator
Eich emphasized that AI’s impact goes beyond generating social media content or creative avatars — uses that have become common in professional networks. Instead, he challenged professionals to consider how they are deploying AI tools in daily workflows to improve productivity and decision-making.
As head of the European Supply Chain Managed Services & Analytics practice at Genpact, Eich leads initiatives focused on AI-enabled operating models designed to enhance cost efficiency and agility. His remarks reflect a growing consensus among transformation leaders that workforce upskilling and human-machine collaboration will define the next phase of enterprise AI adoption.
The message is clear: the technology itself may be widely accessible, but the ability to harness it effectively could determine who leads — and who lags — in the evolving labor market.
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February 16, 2026, 11:52 IST
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Stocks to buy: What’s the outlook for Nifty for February 16-20 week? Check list of top stock recommendations – The Times of India
Stock market recommendations: Arvind, and Bajaj Finance are the top stock picks by Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives, SBI Securities for the week starting February 16, 2026. He also shares his views and outlook on Nifty, Bank Nifty:Index View: NiftyLast week, the Nifty once again struggled to hold above the psychologically important 26000 mark, triggering a fresh wave of profit booking. After briefly touching 26009, the index slipped nearly 550 points in the final two sessions alone—a swift reversal that clearly reflects supply pressure at higher levels. While the headline decline may appear routine, the forces driving this correction point to deeper shifts beneath the surface.A major drag came from the Nifty IT index, which suffered a steep 8% weekly fall and is now down more than 14% month-to-date, making it one of the sharpest sectoral losers in recent months. The sell-off has been aggravated by growing concerns over the rapid rise of AIled start-ups, which investors increasingly view as structurally disruptive to traditional IT services. The speed and extent of the decline suggest this may not just be a short-lived pullback, raising the critical question of whether the sector has fully priced in the evolving risks.Technically, the IT space continues to flash strong warning signals. Every key constituent of the Nifty IT index is now trading below its major moving averages, all of which are trending firmly downward. Momentum indicators remain deeply bearish, with no signs of stabilization or reversal. In this environment, bottomfishing attempts could prove premature unless charts begin to show a meaningful shift.Turning back to the broader Nifty, the index has slipped below its 20day, 50day, and 100day EMAs, reflecting clear deterioration in both short and medium term trend strength. Notably, the 20day and 50day EMAs have also begun to slope downward—an early yet powerful indication of weakening momentum. The daily RSI’s failure to reclaim the 60 level during the recent pullback, followed by a dip below its 9day average, suggests that upside potential may remain restricted for now.Looking ahead, the 25350–25300 zone is expected to act as immediate support. A decisive break below 25300 could pave the way for a deeper slide toward 25100, and subsequently the key 24900 level. On the upside, the 50day EMA zone at 25650–25700 now stands as a stiff barrier and will need to be cleared for the index to regain any meaningful momentum.Bank Nifty ViewThe Bank Nifty outperformed the frontline indices last week, ending the week on a flat note despite heightened volatility in the broader market. For most of the week, the index remained stuck in a narrow 431point range, signalling a clear phase of consolidation. This stability, however, broke on Friday as the index slipped into a range breakdown, indicating the first signs of weakness after several sessions of subdued price action.Despite Friday’s dip, Bank Nifty continues to hold above all its major moving averages, which remain in an upward trajectory—underscoring that the broader trend structure is still intact. However, momentum indicators and oscillators are pointing towards a sideways-to-neutral bias, suggesting that the index may continue to consolidate before any meaningful directional move emerges.In the days ahead, the 20day EMA zone of 60000–59900 will act as immediate support. A sustained breakdown below 59900 could open the gates for further decline towards the 50day EMA, currently placed near 59467. On the upside, the 60600–60700 zone remains a critical resistance area, and only a decisive close above this band may set the stage for a fresh upward move.
Stock recommendations:
ArvindArvind has delivered a downward sloping trendline breakout on the weekly chart, backed by strong follow-through price action and rising volumes, which adds credibility to the move. Weekly RSI has jumped from 43 to 65, signalling a sharp improvement in bullish momentum and a shift toward strength territory. ADX is rising steadily, indicating that trend strength is expanding on the upside. Rising MACD histogram bars further show increasing positive momentum and growing bullish control. Overall, the price structure and indicator alignment suggest the stock is well positioned to extend its up move in the coming sessions. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 386-383 with a stoploss of 370. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 420 in the short term. Bajaj FinanceBajaj Finance has broken out above a downward sloping trendline on the daily chart, pointing to a potential shift from correction to fresh uptrend. On the weekly chart, a three outside up candle pattern is visible, where a strong bullish candle fully engulfs the prior bearish candle and is followed by further upside, a classic bullish reversal structure. RSI has surged from 39 to 56 in three sessions, reflecting sharp momentum recovery. In ADX, DI+ crossing above DI− shows bullish directional strength is building. Meanwhile, shrinking red MACD histogram bars indicate that downside momentum is fading and buyers are gradually taking control. Hence, we recommend to accumulate the stock in the zone of 1025-1035 with a stoploss of 1000. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of 1100 in the short term.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
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Sam Altman announces Peter Steinberger, creator of OpenClaw, will join OpenAI to advance personal agents. OpenClaw will remain open source.
Peter Steinberger Joins OpenAI as Personal AI Agents Become Core Focus
OpenAI founder Sam Altman has announced that Peter Steinberger, the creator of OpenClaw, will be joining the AI research firm to drive the “next generation of personal agents”. Altman called Steinberger a ‘genius with a lot of amazing ideas about the future of very smart agents interacting with each other to do very useful things for people’.
Altman in the X post said that the company is expecting to make personal agents core to their product offerings.
OpenClaw aka Moltbot- the open-source autonomous AI bots that can perform various tasks on a local device while also connecting with a language model – has gone viral recently. Earlier, it was known as Clawdbot.
OpenClaw is designed to perform real-world tasks on behalf of users, such as managing calendars, messaging, browsing and other actions that go beyond simple chatbot responses.
Altman said that OpenAI will continue to support OpenClaw as an open source project. ” The future is going to be extremely multi-agent and it’s important to us to support open source as part of that,” Altman added.
Peter Steinberger is joining OpenAI to drive the next generation of personal agents. He is a genius with a lot of amazing ideas about the future of very smart agents interacting with each other to do very useful things for people. We expect this will quickly become core to our…— Sam Altman (@sama) February 15, 2026
Screenshots of AI bots interacting to each other have gone viral recently on social platform, attracting eyeballs and raising doubts over the dystopian future.
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February 16, 2026, 08:24 IST
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