Business
Stock markets outlook: Dalal Street braces for swings as RBI MPC decision, war risks weigh on sentiment–Check key triggers – The Times of India
Domestic equities are expected to remain volatile this week as investors track the Reserve Bank’s monetary policy decision, global macroeconomic cues and evolving developments in the West Asia conflict, analysts said, according to PTI.Market participants will also keep a close watch on crude oil price movements and foreign fund flows, which continue to influence sentiment.Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments Ltd, said the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be the key domestic trigger, with investors focusing on the central bank’s stance on inflation and growth.“A rate pause is near-certain consensus, the central bank walks a tightrope between crude-driven inflation risks and a four-year low Manufacturing PMI signalling a softening growth impulse. The governor’s commentary on the rate cycle trajectory and FY27 projections will be closely monitored.“Globally, the US March CPI reading will carry significant importance, as it buries residual Fed rate-cut hopes, strengthens the dollar and tightens financial conditions for emerging markets, including India,” Nair said.He added that geopolitical developments in West Asia will remain the dominant factor shaping market direction.“Indian markets return after a three-day gap and remain acutely vulnerable to weekend war developments, with crude trajectory and any credible ceasefire signal being the decisive variable that could either trigger a sharp relief rally or extend the current sell-on-rise mode,” he said.In the previous holiday-shortened week, the BSE Sensex declined 263.67 points, or 0.35%, while the NSE Nifty fell 106.5 points, or 0.46%.Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research (Wealth Management) at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said investor sentiment will remain closely linked to developments in the West Asia conflict.Brent crude prices have stayed elevated near $107 per barrel, fuelling concerns around imported inflation. Currency pressures have also intensified, with the rupee weakening sharply before recovering towards Rs 93 against the US dollar following RBI intervention, he noted.Foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows remain a key overhang, with March witnessing heavy selling of Rs 1.2 lakh crore, among the highest monthly outflows in recent years.“Investors will monitor the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, GDP data, and initial jobless claims for further cues on growth and the policy trajectory.“Overall, markets are expected to remain volatile as geopolitical developments, crude price movements, FII flows and global macro data continue to drive sentiment,” Khemka said.Analysts said any signs of de-escalation in the West Asia conflict could ease crude prices and stabilise the currency, offering relief to markets, while further escalation may prolong risk aversion and keep pressure on foreign flows.
The price of oil moved higher on Tuesday amid caution from investors ahead of Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The US president has threatened to launch a major attack on Iranian infrastructure if a ceasefire deal is not reached by 1am UK time on Wednesday.
Global financial markets were tentative ahead of the deadline as a result.
The price of Brent crude oil increased by around 1.5% to 111.4 US dollars a barrel in early trading.
It is around 53% higher than before the conflict started at the end of February, and has resulted in sharp increases in petrol and diesel costs as a result.
Traders are still hopeful a diplomatic breakthrough can be secured but have seen little headway from recent peace talks.
In London, the FTSE 100 opened a touch higher but quickly swung into the red. It was down 0.1% at 10,426.05 points shortly before 9am.
Elsewhere, the German Dax index was down 0.2% while the French Cac 40 was up 0.4% in early trading.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said: “In the immediate term investors are facing a binary event – ceasefire or further escalation of the conflict.
“Asian markets provided little direction overnight, leading to a subdued UK mood although the main indices made cautious progress in opening exchanges.
“The FTSE 250 remains down by 3.4% so far this year, weighed down by a cocktail of domestic economic issues and the more general risk-off approach which has blighted other global markets.”
Business
Air India revises fuel surcharge amid energy crunch; here’s how much more you will pay – The Times of India
Aviation giant Air India group on Tuesday revised its fuel surcharge across domestic and international routes, as Middle East tensions continued to weigh oil supplies across the globe. The move follows the decision by the ministry of petroleum & natural gas and the ministry of civil aviation to cap the increase in domestic aviation turbine fuel (atf) prices at 25%. For domestic travel, the airline will replace its existing flat surcharge with a distance-linked structure. The revised domestic surcharge will come into effect from 0901 hrs IST on April 8, 2026, and will apply across the group, including Air India Express flights.As per the latest data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global average jet fuel price nearly doubled within a month, rising from $99.40 per barrel at the end of February to $195.19 for the week ending March 27, 2026.
Here’s how much more you will pay from Wednesday:
- Passengers flying up to 500 km will pay an additional Rs 299 per sector.
- Those travelling between 501 and 1,000 km will be charged Rs 399.
- Journeys of 1,001 to 1,500 km will attract Rs 549.
- For distances between 1,501 and 2,000 km, the surcharge will be Rs 749.
- The surcharge will further increase to Rs 899 for sectors beyond 2,000 km.
On the international front, the airline has introduced steeper revisions, citing the lack of similar price controls on ATF. Effective from 0901 hrs IST on April 8, 2026, passengers flying to SAARC destinations (excluding Bangladesh) will pay a surcharge of $24 per sector. Charges for the Middle East have been set at $50, while routes to China and Southeast Asia (excluding Singapore) will attract $100. The surcharge for Singapore stands at $60, and for Africa at $130.For flights to Europe, including the United Kingdom, the surcharge has been fixed at $205. Meanwhile, passengers travelling to North America and Australia will be charged $280 per sector, with these rates taking effect from 0001 hrs IST on April 10, 2026.
Why Air India introduced the surcharge?
The airline pointed out that the increase is not limited to crude oil prices alone. Refinery margins, referred to as ‘crack spread’, have also surged sharply, climbing from $27.83 per barrel for the week ending February 27 to $81.44 by March 27. This combination has intensified cost pressures for airlines worldwide. Air India stated that even after the revision, the updated international fuel surcharge does not fully offset the rise in fuel costs, and a substantial portion continues to be absorbed by the airline. The airline added that revisions for flights to and from Bangladesh, along with Far East destinations such as Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea, will be announced later, subject to regulatory approvals. Air India clarified that tickets issued before the revised timelines will not be subject to the new surcharge unless passengers make changes to their travel plans that require a recalculation of fares.
Business
Supreme Court: No personal oral hearing needed before labelling bank accounts as fraud: SC | India News – The Times of India
The Supreme Court, on Tuesday, issued a decision regarding the classification of bank accounts as fraud. The apex court ordered that banks are not obligated to grant customers a personal oral hearing before declaring their accounts as fraud. However, prior to labelling them, banks must provide customers with a forensic audit report.The ruling follows submissions made earlier this year by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and State Bank of India (SBI), which argued that conducting personal hearings in every case would not be feasible given the scale of fraud in the banking system.Earlier, appearing for SBI, solicitor general Tushar Mehta had told the court that the volume of fraud cases has risen sharply, making individual hearings difficult to implement. He said that introducing such a requirement could disrupt the process of identifying and declaring fraudulent accounts.
Poll
Do you agree with the Supreme Court ruling that banks are not obligated to grant personal oral hearings for fraud declarations?
The court was informed that around 60,000 instances of bank fraud were recorded over the past two financial years, involving Rs 48,244 crore. Breaking down the figures, Mehta said there were 36,060 cases in 2023–24 and 23,953 in 2024–25. The amount involved in 2024–25 stood at Rs 36,014 crore, reflecting a 194 per cent increase from Rs 12,230 crore in the previous year.A bench of Justices J B Pardiwala and K V Viswanathan had earlier questioned the absence of personal hearings, noting that such a step is generally linked to principles of natural justice. In response, Mehta maintained that banks do not offer personal hearings in these situations, as it may defeat the purpose of the classification process. He added that there could also be circumstances where providing such hearings is not possible.
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