Business
Stocks mixed despite GDP surprise amid hot US producer price inflation
The FTSE 100 struggled for direction on Thursday, weighing better-than-expected UK growth figures and a surprise pick-up in producer price inflation across the pond.
The FTSE 100 index closed up 12.01 points, 0.1%, at 9,177.24.
The FTSE 250 ended down 49.89 points, 0.2%, at 21,801.67, and the AIM All-Share finished 2.17 points higher, 0.3%, at 759.71.
In Europe, the CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.7%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt advanced 0.8%.
The Office for National Statistics said UK gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.3% in the second quarter from the first, slowing from a 0.7% expansion in the first three months of the year.
According to market consensus cited by FXStreet, growth of 0.1% on-quarter had been expected for the three months to June.
Deutsche Bank analyst Sanjay Raja said the UK economy found an “unexpected second wind”.
“The economy expanded by 0.3% on the quarter. But mind the third decimal. Unrounded, UK GDP grew by 0.345% on the quarter – a hair’s breadth away from an even stronger surface print. This puts the UK on course to become the second fastest growing economy in the G7 (after claiming the top prize in Q1-25),” Mr Raja said.
But Mr Raja noted some areas of disappointment, such as household spending and business investment.
On-month, the UK economy rounded off the second quarter with a 0.4% expansion in June, following falls of 0.1% in each of May and April.
April’s figure was revised upwards from a drop of 0.3% before.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2025 to 1.4% from 1.2%, above the 1.0% forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Mr Raja said: “To be sure, the economy is growing. Positive momentum is brewing.
“But animal spirits remain tepid.
“While the Chancellor is poised to focus her budget on improving productivity – a very welcome focus for the UK – Number 11 should also prioritise lifting household and business confidence to sustain the UK’s outperformance.”
In the US, producer prices shot up at a faster pace than expected in July.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics said the producer price inflation rate for July was 3.3%, the fastest 12-month gain since February and nearly a full percentage point up from June’s rate of 2.4%.
A much tamer acceleration to 2.5% was expected, according to consensus cited by FXStreet.
On-month, producer prices rose 0.9% in July from June, the largest monthly rise since January, and topping the consensus of a 0.2% increase.
Following a fairly benign consumer inflation print on Tuesday, the figures were seen as dampening hopes for widespread rate cuts later in the year.
“After a string of data pointing to greater odds of a September rate cut, the large upside surprise in producer prices highlights the dilemma the Federal Reserve faces in judging the risks to its dual mandate,” said Matthew Martin, at Oxford Economics.
But Veronica Clark, at Citi, said strength in services in both CPI and PPI was concentrated in a few specific components and not indicative of broad-based price pressures.
She continues to expect limited signs of persistent inflation and a weakening labour market will have Fed officials cutting rates by 25 basis points in September and each meeting after to a 3% to 3.25% rate.
Mr Martin is not so sure.
His baseline forecast expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until December, although he accepts “our near-term outlook for monetary policy is walking a tightrope” that will be shaped by the next employment and price reports.
The data saw stock markets ease, giving back a slice of recent gains, the dollar perk up, and bond yields push higher.
In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4%, the S&P 500 was 0.3% lower, as was the Nasdaq Composite.
The pound eased to 1.3541 dollars late on Thursday afternoon in London, compared with 1.3566 dollars at the equities close on Wednesday. The euro ebbed to 1.1650 dollars, lower against 1.1713 dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 147.72 yen compared with 147.24 yen.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was at 4.28%, widened from 4.23%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was 4.87%, stretched from 4.83%.
In London, insurance stocks were the flavour of the day with gains for Aviva and Admiral.
Aviva, which has more than 33 million customers and operates in more than 16 countries globally, rose 2.5% as it said pre-tax profit surged 30% to £1.27 billion in the first six months of the year from £978 million a year prior.
The London-based insurer said operating profit was 22% higher on-year at £1.07 billion from £875 million a year prior.
Gross written premiums were 4.7% higher at £6.29 billion from £6.01 billion.
It lifted its interim dividend by 10% to 13.1 pence per share from 11.9p.
“With operating profit up 22% (10% ahead of consensus) and the interim dividend up 10% (2% ahead of consensus), Aviva’s recent run of success appears to have continued,” Jefferies analyst Philip Kett said.
Admiral jumped 5.6% after reporting strong first-half results, led by growth in its motor insurance business, where profits leapt 56% year-on-year.
The FTSE 100-listing said pre-tax profit rose 67% to £516.1 million in the six months to June 30 from £309.8 million the year prior.
Pre-tax profit from continuing operations jumped 69% to £521.0 million from £307.6 million, beating the £508 million Visible Alpha consensus.
“Another great update from the gift that keeps on giving,” said Bank of America.
Centrica climbed 3.4% as it said it had agreed, along with Energy Capital Partners LLP, to buy the Isle of Grain liquefied natural gas terminal in Kent from National Grid for an enterprise value of £1.5 billion.
Rolls-Royce rose 2.1% as UBS raised its share price target to 1,375 pence from 1,075p, driven primarily by “our likely above-management pricing expectations and above-guidance margin assumptions in Civil and Power Systems, where we see further opportunity for turnaround benefits to be realised”.
In an upside scenario, UBS sees 2,000p fair value as “credible”.
A barrel of Brent rose to 66.80 dollars late on Thursday afternoon from 65.51 dollars on Wednesday. Gold eased to 3,339.74 dollars an ounce against 3,356.28 dollars.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Admiral, up 192 pence at 3,560p, Centrica, up 5.5p at 167.6p, BAE Systems, up 44.5p at 1,776p, Aviva, up 16.2p at 675.2p and Babcock International, up 21.5p at 988.5p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Rio Tinto, down 188p at 4,480.5p, Beazley, down 24p at 776p, Diploma, down 130p at 5,315p, Persimmon, down 26p at 1,103p, and Halma, down 62p at 3,224p.
There are no significant events in the local corporate calendar on Friday.
The global economic calendar on Friday has US retail sales and industrial production data.
Contributed by Alliance News
Business
BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war
BP has come under fire after revealing profits more than doubled in the first three months of the year, thanks to the soaring cost of crude caused by the Iran war.
Chief executive Meg O’Neill praised the quarter as sending the firm “in the right direction” and “strengthening the balance sheet” – but critics have labelled the energy giant’s revenues as “horrifying” as “millions suffer the fallout” from war.
The FTSE 100 firm revealed its preferred profit measure – underlying replacement cost profit – surged by over 130% to a better-than-expected $3.2bn (£2.4bn) in the first quarter, up from $1.38bn (£1.02bn) a year earlier and $1.54bn (£1.13bn) in the previous three months. Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of $2.67bn (£1.97bn).
Campaigners accused the group of profiting at the expense of households, who have seen fuel prices rocket at the pumps and are set to see energy bills jump higher once more when the price cap is next updated on July 1.
The price of oil has risen from the mid-$60s range in February to over $100 now, spiking close to $120 several times during the course of the Iran war.
Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at campaigning organisation Global Witness, said: “It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.
“As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.
“It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to. BP profits, we all pay.”
Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, added: “Just as we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel giants are quids in when global instability drastically inflates fuel prices.
“But again, it’s ordinary people who pay the price when soaring energy prices threaten to plunge the UK into an even deeper cost-of-living crisis.”
The End Fuel Poverty Coalition called for a windfall tax on firms profiting from the Iran-related energy crisis.
The campaign group’s co-ordinator Simon Francis said: “These astronomical profits are a startling reminder that when conflict drives up the price of oil and gas, energy companies profit and households pay.”
BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill, who took over at the helm on April 1, said the group was ensuring fuel supplies are met across the UK.
She said: “The teams across BP are playing their part to keep oil, gas and refined products flowing during an incredibly challenging time – focused on maintaining safe, reliable and cost-efficient operations.”
She added: “We are working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed, helping minimise disruption and the impact it can have on people’s lives.”
Ms O’Neill took over from Murray Auchincloss, who himself served only two years in the role after succeeeding Bernard Looney’s three-year tenure. Prior to the recent regular changes, Bob Dudley spent a full decade in the job up to 2020.
BP have struggled with strategy direction and the transition to clean energy, first doubling down on their green plan before an abrupt about-face turn.
In share price terms, the results saw BP rise 2.5 per cent in early trading on Tuesday, adding to a surge of more than 28 per cent in the past three months alone, as investors watched a soaring oil price and predicted the profits to come.
“In February, BP announced it was halting share buybacks as weak oil prices hurt profitability. How times change,” said Freetrade’s investment writer, Duncan Ferris.
“The firm has been among the best-performing supermajors since the escalation of conflict in Iran. Higher oil prices, and the opportunities they offer to the company’s traders, have breathed life into a stock battered by faltering low-carbon projects and investor unrest.”
Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.
Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and, despite falling back, is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.
BP’s update showed its customers and products division – including its oil trading unit – reported profits of 2.5 billion (£1.84 billion), compared with 1.4 billion dollars (£1.03 billion) in the previous quarter and just 103 million dollars (£76.2 million) a year ago as traders were able to capitalise on highly volatile oil prices.
Additional reporting by PA
Business
Strait of Hormuz blockade persists, but India’s imports of Russian oil are down from highs seen in March – here’s why – The Times of India
India’s imports of crude oil from Russia have dropped from the highs seen in March when the supply disruptions from the Middle East caused by the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure prompted refiners to step up buys from Moscow.India’s imports of Russian crude oil have declined 20 per cent month-on-month in April to 1.57 million barrels per day, easing from the sharp surge recorded in March. The spike in March had been driven by the availability of floating cargoes during the Iran conflict, along with a temporary waiver on US sanctions. This waiver has been extended for now. Nearly all Indian refiners, except Numaligarh Refinery, are now importing Russian crude. This marks a significant shift from January, when only three refiners – namely Indian Oil, Nayara Energy and BPCL, were purchasing Russian oil after US sanctions on key Russian exporters had discouraged many buyers. Reliance resumed its Russian crude imports in February.Also Read | Iran war: Trump sanctions waiver or not – why India continues to buy Russian oil
Why are Russian crude oil imports down in April?
April volumes were affected by loading disruptions at a major Russian export terminal following a Ukrainian attack.Indian Oil Corporation remained the largest importer of Russian crude in both March and April. Between April 1 and April 26, the company imported an average of 670,000 barrels per day, accounting for roughly 42 per cent of India’s total Russian crude purchases. This was about two-and-a-half times the volume imported by Reliance Industries, which averaged 263,000 barrels per day, according to Kpler data quoted in an ET report. In March, Indian Oil had imported 589,000 barrels per day. Other major buyers in April included Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited at 136,000 barrels per day, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited at 83,000 barrels per day, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited at 68,000 barrels per day, HPCL-Mittal Energy Limited at 66,000 barrels per day, and Nayara Energy at 28,000 barrels per day. The buyers of an additional 262,000 barrels per day could not be immediately identified.Nayara Energy’s imports dropped sharply from 315,000 barrels per day in March, largely because the Rosneft-backed refiner began a 35-day maintenance shutdown on April 9.According to Nikhil Dubey, Senior Research Analyst at Kpler, the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March prompted Indian refiners to turn to readily available floating Russian cargoes in the Indian Ocean and other regions to offset supply disruptions from the Gulf. This led to a significant jump in imports during that month.India imported nearly 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude in March, substantially higher than the 1.3 million barrels per day of India-bound cargoes loaded from Russian ports in February. The higher March arrivals were supported by floating supplies. Since Russian shipments generally take around a month to reach India, lower February loadings, which were caused by US sanctions that had curtailed Indian purchases, had an impact on subsequent arrivals.Russian crude loadings in March were estimated at around 1.5 million barrels per day, which translated into similar arrival volumes at Indian ports in April, as most of the previously available floating cargoes had already been absorbed.Dubey also noted that Ukrainian attacks on a Russian Baltic Sea terminal in March disrupted loading operations.
Business
Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz
Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as Donald Trump weighed Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.
The US president is unhappy with the latest Iranian proposal, a US official said on Monday. Iranian sources disclosed that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.
Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20 per cent of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.
Brent crude rose to $108.13 per barrel, hovering near a three-week high, while US West Texas Intermediate went up to $96.48.
Both benchmarks are well above pre-war levels. Brent was trading at $72 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February.
Asian stocks were broadly subdued at the opening. While MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.12 per cent, hovering near the record high it touched on Monday, Nikkei fell 0.5 per cent.
The S&P 500 eked out modest gains on Monday and was on course for a nearly 10 per cent gain for April. US stock futures were 0.1 per cent higher in Asian hours.
Indian shares are set to open lower on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty futures pointing to the benchmark Nifty 50 opening below Monday’s close of 24,092.70. Both Nifty and Sensex snapped a three-session losing run on Monday, led by a rebound in technology stocks, but the broader momentum remained constrained by unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Elevated oil prices are a particular headwind for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, heightening inflation risks, pressuring economic growth and widening the country’s import bill.
Foreign portfolio investors offloaded domestic stocks worth Rs 11.5bn ($122m) on Monday, extending their selling streak to a sixth straight session.
Vessel crossings showed signs of recovery over the weekend, according to the maritime intelligence firm Windward, but analysts warned increased movement was yet to translate into a surge in oil and gas flows.
Iran reportedly offered to end its blockade of the waterway without addressing its nuclear programme, passing the proposal to Washington through Pakistani mediators. But Mr Trump has made ending Iran’s atomic programme a condition for any deal.
Central banks are also in focus this week, with the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all due to announce policy decisions. All are expected to hold rates steady, but markets will be watching closely for signals about how policymakers plan to respond to the inflationary pressure from the war.
“The BOJ is likely to stay highly sensitive to market volatility,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, told Reuters. “Our base case remains one single 25 basis point hike this year in July, but a June rate rise becomes more likely if the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed after mid-May.”
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