Business
Tax, spending and investment: Where the Budget ranks in history
Rachel Reeves’s second Budget as Chancellor has set the UK on a path towards levels of tax, spending and investment not seen for many years, according to the latest economic forecasts.
Here the PA news agency looks at what those forecasts suggest about the likely future of the country’s finances – and how they compare with decades gone by.
– Tax burden to reach new all-time high
The UK’s tax burden was already set to hit record levels in the years ahead, but new data shows the figure peaking even higher than previously thought.
The tax burden, or tax take, is a measure of how much the Government collects in taxation, expressed as a proportion of the total value of the economy.
When Rachel Reeves delivered her spring financial statement in March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast the tax burden to reach the equivalent of 37.7% of GDP by 2027/28: the highest level since current records began in 1948.
The OBR is now forecasting it to reach 37.6% by 2027/28 but then go on climbing to an even higher record of 38.3% in 2030/31.
This is more than five percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 32.9% in 2019/20.
The main drivers of the increase are personal taxes, such as the extension of the threshold freeze at which people start paying higher rates of income tax, plus the increase in employer national insurance contributions, the OBR said.
– Spending on health and disability benefits passes £100 billion for first time
Government spending on welfare is also forecast to continue at record levels.
Spending on health and disability benefits per year is likely to pass £100 billion for the first time, rising from £83.1 billion in 2025/26 to £103.6 billion in 2029/30.
This is up from the previous forecasts of £81.2 billion in 2025/26 and £97.7 billion in 2029/30.
The OBR acknowledges there is “uncertainty” around the future costs of welfare spending, because of “the growth of disability and health caseloads, which have increased very sharply since the pandemic”.
The latest forecasts have been calculated on the assumption that the number of people requiring these benefits will continue to rise, but at a slower pace than recently.
However, if growth continues at rates seen since the pandemic, this could increase spending in 2029/30 by around £11 billion, the OBR added.
Total government spending on welfare per year is forecast to rise from £333.0 billion in 2025/26 to a new all-time high of £389.4 billion in 2029/30.
This is higher than the previous forecasts of £326.1 billion in 2025/26 and £373.4 billion in 2029/30.
The revised forecasts reflect the reversal of cuts to winter fuel payments and health-related benefits, along with the removal of the two-child limit within Universal Credit.
– Longest sustained period of high government spending since Second World War
Total government public spending is forecast to remain at the equivalent of between 44% and 45% of GDP for nearly the entire decade.
This is almost five percentage points higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
It also represents the longest sustained period of spending at this level since the Second World War.
The forecast suggests spending will not fall below the equivalent of 44% of GDP for nine financial years in a row, from 2022/23 to 2030/31.
This easily surpasses the two other post-war periods when spending was 44% of GDP or above, in the three years from 1974/75 to 1976/77 and the three years from 2009/10 to 2011/12.
Spending at the end of the last century, in the financial year 1999/2000, stood at 34.6% of GDP.
– Debt as percentage of GDP remains at levels last seen in early 1960s
The headline measure of public sector net debt in the UK, which includes the Bank of England, is forecast to remain between 95% and 97% for the rest of the decade.
This level of debt was last seen at the end of the financial year 1962/63, when debt stood at 98.2% of GDP: a time when Harold Macmillan was Conservative prime minister, there were only two television channels in the country, and The Beatles had just released their debut album Please Please Me.
Debt at the end of the last century, in 1999/2000, stood at 32.4% of GDP.
– Highest sustained level of government investment since 1970s
Government investment is forecast to remain above the equivalent of 2% of GDP in every year for the rest of the decade: the highest sustained level since the 1970s.
Public sector net investment stood at the equivalent of 2.4% of GDP in 2023/24 and is forecast to climb to 2.9% in 2027/28, before falling back to 2.5% by 2030/31.
This would represent eight consecutive years with investment above 2%: a trend not seen in the UK for more than 40 years.
Government investment as a proportion of GDP was above 2% in every year from 1948/49, when current records began, to 1980/81.
It then remained below 2% in almost every year until the late 2010s, save for 1983/84, 2004/05 and 2008/09-2010/11.
Spending rose above 2% in the two years from 2017/18 to 2018/19, then again from 2020/21 to 2021/22, but in each case it fell back below 2% the following year.
Business
Labour parliamentarians urge UK Government to oppose Rosebank oil field
Labour MPs are among a group of more than 60 parliamentarians to have made public their opposition to the planned Rosebank oil field – with one of Sir Keir Starmer’s backbenchers urging the Government to rule against the development and take a stand “against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters”.
Clive Lewis is one of more than 50 MPs at Westminster who have signed a pledge from campaign group Uplift to “oppose the Rosebank oil field” and instead “advocate for a properly funded just transition for oil and gas workers and communities”.
Urging the Government to reject the development, Norwich South MP Mr Lewis said: “We must stand our ground against Trump, Reform and their fossil fuel paymasters.
“Approving an enormous new oil field would mean caving in to their anti-climate, anti-renewables agenda that runs completely counter to our values and our long-term interests.”
Scottish Labour MP Chris Murray, another of the Labour MPs to have signed the pledge, said the decision on Rosebank was “an opportunity for the Government to change course”.
It comes as the UK Government continues to consider whether the development of the oil field can go ahead – with Labour now under mounting pressure after the loss of the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens on Thursday.
Rosebank, which lies about 80 miles west of Shetland, is the UK’s largest untapped field, containing up to an estimated 300 million barrels of oil.
Drilling there was approved by the Conservative government in 2023 but was then subject to a legal challenge in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling which said the emissions created from burning fossil fuels should be considered when granting permission for new sites.
Now the decision on whether it can proceed lies with Labour ministers – with some 16 Labour MPs having made plain their opposition to the development.
The group includes Mr Lewis, Mr Murray, former Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell and Scottish Labour’s Brian Leishman.
Former Labour MPs Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have also signed the pledge, along with a number of Liberal Democrat and Green MPs, SNP MP Chris Law, Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts and Paul Maskey of Sinn Fein.
In Scotland a number of Labour MSPs have signed the pledge, along with Green MSPs – including the party’s Scottish co-leader Ross Greer – and former SNP health secretary Michael Matheson.
While previous Scottish first ministers Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf made plain their opposition to Rosebank, First Minister John Swinney has insisted the Scottish Government takes a “case-by-case approach” to new oil and gas developments, stressing these should only proceed if found to be compatible with climate change targets.
Mr Lewis said opposing Rosebank would “show that a Labour Government will stand by the promises we made to the country”.
He added: “There are only so many times we can afford to make mistakes and then change course.
“With Rosebank, we have an opportunity to get it right the first time.”
Mr Murray, the Labour MP for Edinburgh East and Musselburgh, said many locals in his constituency were “deeply concerned about Rosebank and rightly so”.
He added: “Climate change is one of the reasons I came into politics, and opening new oil and gas fields is simply incompatible with our climate commitments.
“With the North Sea’s oil supply dwindling, Scotland’s energy sector must transition to clean energy, or workers risk being left behind.”
Scottish Labour MSP Mercedes Villalba, who has also signed the pledge, argued that “approving projects like Rosebank will lock us into a toxic dependence on volatile, conflict-ridden fossil fuels”.
This would create “another excuse to delay the urgent investment needed to create secure, well-paid jobs for Scotland’s workers”, she added.
Ms Villalba said: “In an increasingly uncertain world, where climate action is relegated in favour of fossil politics, the UK and Scotland must lead the way on the clean energy transition.”
Wera Hobhouse, Liberal Democrat MP for Bath, said people in her constituency and across the country “are already facing the consequences of an increasingly unstable climate”.
Highlighting the impact of flooding and “skyrocketing food prices”, she said that “climate impacts are now a daily reality”.
Ms Hobhouse said: “Extreme weather is damaging crops, putting pressure on farmers, and destroying our precious natural environment.
“We cannot ignore these warning signs.
“A massive new oil field like Rosebank would only make matters worse.
“The emissions would be enormous, locking us into decades more pollution when we should be cutting carbon and unlocking the benefits of cheap, renewable energy.”
Approving the Rosebank development would “make a mockery of Labour’s environmental promises”, she said.
A UK Government spokesperson said: “Our priority is to deliver a fair, orderly and prosperous transition in the North Sea in line with our climate and legal obligations, which drives our clean energy future of energy security, lower bills, and good long-term jobs.”
Business
UAE stock markets close, trading halted by Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market for two days amid Iran–US–Israel war fallout – The Times of India
In an unprecedented economic response to escalating regional conflict, the United Arab Emirates has announced that its two major financial markets, the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) and the Dubai Financial Market (DFM), will remain closed on Monday, March 2 and Tuesday, March 3, 2026. The decision comes as the UAE reels from a series of retaliatory Iranian strikes following coordinated US and Israeli military actions against Iran, which have destabilised Gulf business sentiment and prompted sweeping security and economic precautions.The UAE Capital Markets Authority said that keeping the exchanges closed temporarily is part of its supervisory and regulatory mandate, providing authorities and market participants time to assess the impact of recent events on financial infrastructure and investor confidence. The halt affects equities, derivatives and trading in hundreds of billions of dollars in listed assets and is among the clearest signs yet of economic shockwaves from the regional crisis.
Why UAE stock markets are paused: Regional conflict among Iran–US–Israel disrupts confidence
The closures follow Iran’s retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Gulf cities and strategic targets, including airports and other infrastructure, after a joint US–Israel offensive. These attacks have not only led to safety measures such as airspace restrictions and travel advisories but also triggered widespread business disruption across the Gulf. Major airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have seen operations halted or altered and commercial hubs from ports to retail centres have felt the strain.
UAE Markets Shut Down: Is This Economic Capitulation to Regional War?
Financial markets are typically among the first economic indicators affected by geopolitical instability. When investors fear prolonged unrest, they often pull funds from equities and seek so-called “safe-haven” assets like gold, sovereign debt or commodities such as oil, especially when conflict threatens critical energy supply corridors like the Strait of Hormuz.
Regional market turmoil and knock-on effects in the Middle East amid Iran–US–Israel clashes
While the UAE exchanges are closed, other Gulf markets that remained open on Sunday experienced significant sell-offs as investors reacted to the turmoil:
- Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index saw sharp drops before partially recovering as investors weighed conflict risks against energy price gains.
- Muscat and other regional bourses also slid, reflecting broader risk-off sentiment.
- In Kuwait, authorities took the rare step of suspending trading indefinitely due to “exceptional circumstances” linked to the same regional tensions.
Financial markets are serving as a barometer of risk and economic confidence and the dramatic moves across the Gulf underscore how intertwined political stability is with economic performance in the region.
What the UAE’s stock market closure means for investors
For both domestic and international investors, the temporary shutdown of ADX and DFM has several implications. Liquidity and price discovery are paused, leaving billions of dollars in listed assets in limbo. Risk premiums on Gulf assets may rise, as traders reassess exposure during periods of heightened uncertainty. Investor sentiment is likely to remain fragile until there are visible signs of de-escalation or credible diplomatic resolutions.Economists note that halting trading does not eliminate market pressure, it simply delays it and when markets do reopen, there may be sharp moves as investors recalibrate positions based on new geopolitical and economic realities. The conflict has not just shaken stock markets, energy markets have also reacted. Reports from analysts indicate that crude oil prices have surged as fears of supply disruptions increase, with the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for roughly 20% of global oil exports, under theoretical threat of closure.
UAE Stock Markets Closed: What Does This Mean for Global Investors Amidst Escalating Conflict?
Higher oil prices can partially offset stock market pain in energy-exporting economies like the UAE but the overall economic impact remains complex. Other sectors, from tourism and hospitality to trade and logistics, have also felt immediate fallout: airport shutdowns have stranded travellers and corporate events and networking key to Ramadan business cycles have been postponed, compounding uncertainty.
UAE government messaging and future prospects
UAE authorities have stressed that public and economic safety remain top priorities. The temporary market closure is coupled with broad advisories across transportation, education and public services, such as airports issuing travel advisories and schools moving to remote learning, aimed at ensuring operational stability while the situation evolves. Officials have pledged to monitor conditions closely and communicate updates on any further market action. This includes potential rescheduling of reopening dates for ADX and DFM or additional measures to support investors once trading resumes.The UAE Capital Markets Authority ordered a two-day closure of the Abu Dhabi and Dubai stock markets on March 2–3, 2026, in response to escalating regional tensions. The pause follows retaliatory strikes by Iran after US and Israeli military action, which have disrupted markets, air travel and business operations across the Gulf. Gulf markets that remained open experienced sharp declines and volatility, reflecting investor risk aversion. Oil prices and safe-haven assets have climbed as geopolitical risk fuels global economic uncertainty. Authorities will continue to assess and communicate market developments as conditions evolve.
Business
Flights cancelled as new travel warnings issued after US-Israeli strikes on Iran
BA and Virgin Atlantic are among major airlines to ground services to the Middle East in light of the attacks.
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