Business
The regulatory path ahead for a Netflix and Warner Bros. deal could get dicey
Logos of Netlfix and Warner Bros.
Reuters
The Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery deal came together quickly — but its path to regulatory approval may not be so speedy.
Netflix stunned the media industry on Friday when it announced its proposed $72 billion deal to acquire the iconic Warner Bros. film studio and streaming service HBO Max. The combination brings together two of the most popular streaming platforms in the business. Netflix reported 300 million global subscribers as of late 2024, the last time it reported the metric. HBO Max had 128 million customers as of Sept. 30.
Netflix currently claims 46% of mobile app monthly active users in global streaming, according to data from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Combined with HBO Max, that share would rise to 56%, it found.
“This deal cements Netflix’s position as the premier streaming service for original content,” according to a research note from analysts at William Blair on Friday.
The size of the deal makes it ripe for scrutiny, from both industry insiders and U.S. lawmakers.
The Trump administration is viewing the merger with “heavy skepticism,” CNBC reported Friday, and Sen. Elizabeth Warren has already called for an antitrust review.
“This deal looks like an anti-monopoly nightmare. A Netflix-Warner Bros. would create one massive media giant with control of close to half of the streaming market — threatening to force Americans into higher subscription prices and fewer choices over what and how they watch, while putting American workers at risk,” Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said in a statement.
The merger would also give Netflix control over the famed Warner Bros. film studio, further consolidating the cinematic space and raising concerns that the number or typical windowing of popular releases could shrink.
It’s typical in the days and weeks following a deal announcement of this scale for interest groups, politicians and corporate competitors to call foul on antitrust grounds.
The Department of Justice is most likely to review the deal, as it has other media mergers in the past, and it could take some time. DOJ reviews can take anywhere from months to more than a year.
Netflix said Friday it expects the transaction to close in 12 to 18 months, after Warner Bros. Discovery spins out its portfolio of cable networks into Discovery Global.
Netflix confidence
Ted Sarandos, co-chief executive officer of Netflix , attends the annual Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho on July 11th, 2025.
David A. Grogan | CNBC
Netflix executives on Friday said they were “highly confident” the deal would win regulatory approval.
“You know, this deal is pro-consumer, pro-innovation, pro-worker, it’s pro-creator, it’s pro-growth,” Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos said during an investor call following the acquisition announcement.
“Our plans here are to work really closely with all the appropriate governments and regulators, but [we’re] really confident that we’re going to get all the necessary approvals that we need,” Sarandos added.
As part of the deal, Netflix has agreed to pay a $5.8 billion breakup fee to Warner Bros. Discovery if the deal were to get blocked by the government.
Netflix’s bid won out over competing offers from Paramount Skydance and Comcast.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank and William Blair were at least minimally convinced Friday of the potential for the deal to go through.
“A merger of Warner Bros. Discovery and any of the three bidders would probably succeed, even if the DOJ were to sue to block a proposed combination,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a note on Friday, citing insights from a Department of Justice veteran who the analysts said “does not see any significant antitrust problems with any of the three scenarios.”
“However … we don’t know all of the detailed facts that will be collected and analyzed by the DOJ, nor do we know who the judge hearing the case will be, and both of these factors can have an impact on the outcome,” the Deutsche Bank analysts noted.
Paramount, for its part, has been fanning the flames.
Paramount’s lawyers sent a letter to Warner Bros. Discovery this week, first reported by CNBC, in which it argued the sale process had been rigged in Netflix’s direction. The Wall Street Journal reported that in a separate letter, Paramount said a Netflix transaction would likely “never close” because of regulatory headwinds.
Paramount was the only bidder looking to buy WBD’s massive portfolio of pay-TV networks — and it’s unlikely to walk away from the process quietly.
Not so fast
Oracle co-founder, CTO and Executive Chairman Larry Ellison (C), U.S. President Donald Trump, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (R), and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son (2nd-R), share a laugh as Ellison uses a stool to stand on as he speaks during a news conference in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 21, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump announced an investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics including his presidential pardons of Jan. 6 defendants, the war in Ukraine, cryptocurrencies and other topics.
Andrew Harnik | Getty Images
Wall Street expected President Donald Trump’s second term to usher in a windfall of dealmaking. However, economic uncertainty has slowed the process for some companies, and regulatory holdups have played a bigger role than anticipated.
“Under Donald Trump, the antitrust review process has also become a cesspool of political favoritism and corruption,” Warren said in Friday’s statement. “The Justice Department must enforce our nation’s anti-monopoly laws fairly and transparently — not use the Warner Bros. deal review to invite influence-peddling and bribery.”
Paramount’s merger with Skydance was left in limbo for more than a year before it finally won federal approval in July.
The Federal Communications Commission (which is unlikely to review the Netflix-WBD tie-up since it doesn’t involve a broadcaster) signed off on the $8 billion merger shortly after Paramount agreed to pay $16 million to Trump to settle a lawsuit over the editing of a “60 Minutes” interview with former Vice President Kamala Harris. Paramount had also ended its diversity, equity and inclusion policies earlier in the year after the FCC said it would investigate the company over its DEI programs.
In September, the newly combined Paramount Skydance, run by David Ellison, set its sights on Warner Bros. Discovery. The company is now considering whether to take a hostile bid straight to WBD shareholders and try to unseat Netflix as the would-be buyer, CNBC reported Friday.
Ellison’s billionaire father, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, is known to be close with Trump.
The argument for whether to clear Netflix’s proposed takeover of Warner Bros. would likely come down to questions around streaming — first, on pricing for consumers, and second, on how to define Netflix’s audience.
The pricing of streaming subscriptions has risen across the board in recent years. In 2022 Netflix instituted a cheaper, ad-supported model after years of resistance in an effort to beckon more customers. The following year, Disney followed with its own more-affordable plan.
Netflix is used to upending the legacy media industry. The company ended its DVD rentals business in 2023 and went all in on streaming. It’s since found massive scale and has taken over the zeitgeist with original series like “Squid Game,” “Wednesday,” “Stranger Things,” and “Bridgerton.”
Its maverick approach to media and its broadening foothold in the industry may be its saving grace in the eyes of regulators.
“My expectation on the regulatory side is Netflix is going to advocate and argue with their advisors for a very expansive definition of what their market is … so that would include broadcast, cable, subscription and ad-supported streaming,” said said Jeff Goldstein, a partner and managing director at AlixPartners, and co-lead of the U.S. Media group.
“And really, really, really importantly, that would include YouTube,” he said.
YouTube has come to dominate the industry when it comes to viewership. Nielsen once again reported in October than YouTube had the largest share of TV usage, with Netflix in sixth place and Warner Bros. Discovery in seventh place. Traditional media companies with linear networks — Disney, NBCUniversal, Fox and Paramount — filled the spots in between.
Critics of the deal will define Netflix’s reach more narrowly to try to demonstrate outsized dominance, said Goldstein.
“I believe that streaming is not a category. Television viewership is a category … you know, eyeballs might be a category,” media industry titan John Malone told CNBC in November when asked about antitrust questions surrounding the WBD sale process.
“But if you’re going to broaden the category to that, you got to take in YouTube and Facebook and the social networks, TikTok,” he said. “I mean, that’s really the question, is streaming a category? … Are studios a category … and is that going to get looked at hard? These regulatory things are a little bit difficult to predict.”
— CNBC’s Julia Boorstin contributed to this report.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, which owns CNBC. Versant would become the new parent company of CNBC upon Comcast’s planned spinoff of Versant.
Business
The investment issues Labour must fix before the public can back its bid to join in
On the whole, Britain is not a nation of investors and the government wants that to change.
Following on from Rachel Reeves’ plans last year, the advertising campaign to create more retail investors is underway and with further changes afoot, the overall picture is one of Labour steering savers towards understanding why, and how, they can create better long-term returns with their money.
The cut to the cash ISA limit, however crude and unpopular, is one such upcoming change. We’ve just entered the final year of the £20,000 allowance being able to be put entirely into a cash ISA; as of April 2027, £8,000 of it will be reserved for investing-only. For those who don’t save over that amount annually it’ll make no material difference, but even the existence of the change can be argued is a prod to the consciousness of people to wonder if they should be doing something else entirely.
Then there’s targeted support.
Among industry insiders there is hope this could make a material difference, given time – in essence, those who have significant savings in cash being able to be spoken to by their bank or provider over other options, potentially including investing.
At Innovate Finance this week, a key summit of UK FinTech Week,The Independent heard from a senior executive at one neobank that the average client with them had savings in excess of £15,000 – precisely the sort of consumer who could benefit from targeted support to explain how, over the long term, they might be better off putting a portion of that excess cash into… well, something other than cash, which loses its value over time due to inflation.
Another suggested an uptick in app users branching out from just having current and savings accounts, to other products within their sphere including stocks and shares ISAs – where investing returns will be tax free for consumers.
Economic secretary to the Treasury Lucy Rigby launched the nationwide ad campaign, along with chancellor Ms Reeves, at the London Stock Exchange on Thursday.
“With greater awareness of the benefits of investing, more people will be able to make informed decisions about how to make their savings work harder for them,” Ms Rigby said. “That will mean greater prosperity and financial resilience for households across the country and strengthened domestic capital markets too.”
The aforementioned plans and prospects certainly all align with raising awareness. That is a first step.
But there are greater key issues to deal with.
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The advert campaign with Savvy the squirrel – conversational cab rides, explain-it-all website and more – will hopefully fill some painful gaps in the first instance around British people’s knowledge around the subject. Unlike in the US and several European countries, where investing is fairly commonplace, in the UK it’s not often spoken about, let alone fully understood.
Research from Barclays and their Investment Readiness Index showed this week that over a third of people (34 per cent) say fear of losing money is their main reason for not starting to invest, while nearly a quarter (23 per cent) said they believed there was a chance that a portfolio of well-known global companies could become “totally worthless” within five years.
Barclays’ report added for context that outcome was “an extremely unlikely” one.
But to really change some of those would-be investors’ minds, perhaps the response should have been more blunt. Perhaps the Treasury, the government and the campaign as a whole could stand to be a bit more…direct.
There is, in all probability, next to no chance that such a mix of companies would become worth zero in five years – unless something genuinely catastrophic happens to the world in which case we’ve all got more important issues to deal with than our portfolio performance. Maybe the Barclays report itself could likewise have benefited from feeling more freely able to state as such?
So, yes, financial education is absolutely one part, but so too is the language and understanding and framing of risk for people.
Articles, videos, all the learning activities across the web and within companies to help introduce people to investing – in every one of them you’re liable to find the disclaimer-style warning along the lines of: investments can go up as well as down, you may get back less than you invest and so on. Some find it off-putting to begin with, some barely even notice it.
In the words of the FCA, you must always “give a balanced impression of the benefits and risks of an investment product or service”.
That same pointing-out-of-the-risks wording and tone is another aspect which is being re-evaluated and could be switched up.
Now, while nobody wants that removed or watered down unduly to the point that bad actors or bad products are being pushed on newly introduced people to investing, there is still a misrepresentation of what risk means – it’s not always about you could lose all your money.
And, the reward (in theory) for taking on board risk is the possibility for higher returns, over time, than just cash alone (through interest) would give you.
Industry insiders have long also pointed out that the same – or reverse – warning is not applied to cash savings products: the risk here being you lose buying power over time due to inflation.
So language, as well as education, must remain on the table to improve and perhaps nudge people more forcefully towards a choice which helps them, similarly to reminding them to check employer contributions to their workplace pensions or taking out travel insurance before they fly.

There will still be one remaining gap though, even after people tentatively read the info, breathe in the adverts and eventually follow Savvy the squirrel down a new journey to take the plunge in investing: where are those people starting?
The ad campaign will not direct people to choose a particular platform or product, though many – Barclays, Hargreaves Lansdown, NatWest and more – are sponsoring the campaign and will be placed on the website as a result. But people still have to choose, and that particular analysis paralysis point has already left many ready to take the first steps, but unsure where to place their feet.
There are more new stocks and shares ISA providers available, loads of low-cost platforms as well as established, recognised names to choose from and deciding which suits any given person’s initial investment plan is as much a key decision as parting with their first few pounds in the first place.
It is important, for the long-term wealth of families, that more people start to invest. It is a positive thing that more information is therefore being pushed in front of them, to be able to make that call in an informed fashion.
But the reason it’s all needed in the first place is an overabundance of caution, a generational stepping-away from investing as a run-of-the-mill part of individual money management. Getting Brits back on board might therefore require less, not more, of that gentle approach to remedy the situation.
Business
Bank of England set to hold interest rates despite Iran war pushing up inflation
Bank of England policymakers will “almost certainly” hold interest rates at 3.75% at their meeting next week despite the Iran war pushing up the cost of living, economists have said.
However, experts have said a future interest rate increase could still be a possibility if firms and households continue to face inflationary pressure.
The Bank of England’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote on whether to maintain, increase or decrease its base interest rate on Thursday April 30.
The Bank will also publish its first full monetary policy report and set of economic forecasts since the conflict between US-Israeli and Iranian forces began in late February.
This week, a raft of economic data has shown that the conflict has helped to drive inflation higher.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation lifted to 3.3% in March, a three-month-high, on the back of accelerating fuel prices.
The price of motor fuels jumped by 8.7% month-on-month – the largest increase since June 2022 – as disruption to oil production and transportation drove diesel and petrol prices higher.
Meanwhile on Friday, Bank of England research saw UK firms warn they think food inflation could jump as high as 7% as they increased their inflation outlook for next year.
Other economic data also indicated that activity in the UK economy has been stronger than expected.
The ONS reported the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, ahead of forecasts of 0.1%, before the conflict began.
Elsewhere, UK retail sales volumes were stronger-than-expected after a boost from fuel, with motorists buying more in March in a bid to stock up amid rising prices.
Despite these figures, economists broadly expect the Bank’s rate-setters to maintain the current interest rate.
Oxford Economics chief UK economist Andrew Goodwin said: “We expect the MPC to keep bank rate unchanged at 3.75%, with most committee members seemingly keen to hold policy at its current restrictive level as they gather more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy.
“Nevertheless, we suspect a minority will opt for a 25 basis point (0.25 percentage point) hike, on the basis that some pre-emptive tightening is a more robust strategy to guard against an inflation outlook where the risks are skewed to the upside.”
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, said the result of the meeting looks “nailed on”.
He said: “The Bank of England (BoE) will almost certainly hold interest rates at 3.75% at its meeting next week, most likely in a unanimous 9-0 vote again.
“The picture of the war in Iran is little clearer than at the last meeting and the value in waiting for more information is significant, given the uncertainty over both the future direction of energy prices and their impact on the economy.”
He indicated however that the “resilience” of some recent data “raises the risk that interest rates will rise in the summer”.
Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, also predicted a unanimous hold vote but also suggested that recent data could drive future concerns over elevated inflation.
He said: “If surveys for May repeat the same pattern, and crucially the ‘dirty’ Middle East ceasefire continues with oil flows disrupted, we think the MPC will be bumped into a hike in June or perhaps July.
“We expect rate setters to hike once this year, in June, before cutting twice in 2027 to leave interest rates at 3.5%.”
Business
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