Fashion
The sneaker boom had a long run. Now some analysts say it’s over
By
Bloomberg
Published
January 11, 2026
For nearly two decades, sports brands benefited as people swapped out dress shoes for sneakers when heading everywhere from the airport to fancy restaurants and even the office.
That’s been a boon for Adidas AG, Nike Inc. and Puma SE, which capitalized on consumers’ changing tastes by serving up snazzy, comfy kicks that people wanted to wear on and off the playing field. The rising demand for sports shoes also underpinned the rapid growth of challengers like Hoka and On Holding AG, which emerged in the wake of the financial crisis and quickly became popular brands.
Now the future of that longstanding sneaker boom is being called into question, most notably by Bank of America analysts led by Thierry Cota. They rocked the footwear world last week with a 61-page analysis concluding that the growth prospects for these sports brands are rapidly dimming.
They argue that the sporting goods sector had enjoyed a 20-year “upcycle” that lifted sneakers from less than a quarter of world footwear sales to at least a half — a trend that culminated during the Covid pandemic, when millions of people were suddenly working from home. “With this structural shift largely complete, prospects for future revenue growth are now significantly reduced,” the analysts said.
They accompanied that view with a rare “double downgrade” of Adidas, abandoning their “buy” rating and declaring the stock one of the least attractive in the industry.
Their contention that the sneaker boom has passed its peak prompted a backlash from skeptics who say the casual footwear trend has room to run. Longtime industry analyst Matt Powell, an adviser at consulting firm Spurwink River, conveyed that sentiment on LinkedIn, where he posted a Barron’s article about the research and commented: “C’mon, man! No evidence of this.”
Adidas shares plunged as much as 7.6% in response to the downgrade on Tuesday, before recovering part of those losses by the end of the week.
Sneakers now make up about 60% of footwear sales in the US, according to Beth Goldstein, an analyst at Circana in New York. Sport shoes have won over the population as part of a wider societal push toward comfort, health and wellness, priorities that probably aren’t going to disappear anytime soon, she said. The US sneaker category grew 4% last year through November, while the fashion category dropped 3%, she added.
“The sneaker business is larger than ever,” she said. “I wouldn’t even call casualization a trend — it’s just a key consumer preference.”
Yet the sneaker makers have run into headwinds since the pandemic as they sometimes failed to keep up with shoppers’ fickle tastes, saw sales cool particularly in China, and faced the threat of US tariffs. Shares of Adidas are down by almost a third in the past year, and even On Holding’s stock is down by more than 10% in the period, despite strong revenue growth.
“We don’t believe the casualization trend is over — rather, it has stabilized, with wardrobes now more balanced,” said Poonam Goyal, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The category has moved beyond the pandemic-driven demand spike and is now operating in a more normalized environment.”
There are signs that sneakers are bleeding into the dress shoe category. In 2025, the top-traded loafer on Stockx, an online resale platform, was the New Balance 1906L, which looks like the offspring of a preppy boat shoe and a marathon trainer. It’s also common these days to see movie stars and fashion influencers donning spiffed-up, expensive versions of trainers, often in collaboration with luxury brands like Gucci and Moncler.
The analysts at Bank of America didn’t suggest that people are going to ditch their sneakers for patent leather oxfords anytime soon. Rather, they indicated that sporting goods — after booming during the pandemic — have since mid-2023 been growing at a slower-than-average pace compared with the past couple of decades.
While that typically could mean the industry is poised to take off again, no big rebound is apparent, the analysts argued. They cited data ranging from recent credit card purchases to sluggish sales figures from Asian footwear and apparel suppliers to less-than-bullish commentary from industry leaders regarding the outlook for 2026.
If the sporting goods industry grew by an average of about 9% a year since 2007, as millions of people traded in dress shoes for sneakers, the future annual expansion may only be about 4% or 5%, they suggested.
Their optimistic take is that the industry is in a prolonged slump because of consumers fearing economic conditions and recent stumbles at Nike. That could mean that the sneaker boom still has legs and will resurge as early as 2027.
“The alternative is much worse and more likely, in our view,” the Bank of America analysts added. “The emergence of a new, less favorable long-term industry paradigm.”
Total apparel shipments fell by 2.66 per cent year on year to $425.44 million in January 2026, compared with $437.07 million in the corresponding month of 2025. The performance underscored uneven global demand conditions that continue to influence sourcing patterns and order flows for Sri Lankan manufacturers.
Sri Lanka’s apparel exports declined 2.66 per cent YoY to $425.44 million in January 2026 amid weak global demand.
Shipments to the US and EU softened, while the UK remained stable with slight growth.
Other markets saw sharper contraction.
JAFF highlighted DCTS benefits and tariff changes while suggesting diversification and efficiency to sustain competitiveness.
Exports to the United States, the country’s largest market, decreased by 2.73 per cent to $165.11 million, while shipments to the European Union excluding the United Kingdom, declined by 1.93 per cent to $126.99 million. In contrast, exports to the UK remained broadly stable, rising marginally by 0.23 per cent to $61.71 million. Apparel shipments to other markets dropped more sharply by 6.07 per cent to $71.63 million.
JAAF noted that the UK’s steady performance offers a constructive signal for the sector, particularly as the revised Developing Countries Trading Scheme (DCTS), effective January 1, 2026, is expected to enhance sourcing flexibility and strengthen Sri Lanka’s competitive position in the British market.
The industry body also highlighted the introduction of a uniform 10 per cent temporary tariff in the US market as a relatively supportive development, reducing the impact of previously higher country-specific rates and providing greater short-term pricing predictability for exporters.
Commenting on the January outcome, JAAF said the moderate decline reflects ongoing volatility in global demand. The association emphasised that the industry remains committed to reinforcing resilience through market diversification, product innovation and operational efficiency, while collaborating with stakeholders to sustain Sri Lanka’s standing as a reliable apparel sourcing destination.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
Profitability remained robust despite a more challenging trading backdrop. Group EBIT stood at €913.4 million, broadly stable year on year (YoY), translating into a 29.2 per cent margin versus 29.5 per cent in FY24. Net profit reached €626.7 million compared with €639.6 million a year earlier, reflecting higher net financial expenses, while maintaining a 20 per cent margin.
Moncler has reported revenues of €3.13 billion (~$3.69 billion) in FY25, up 3 per cent at constant exchange rates, with net profit of €626.7 million (~$739.5 million).
Asia led regional growth, while DTC channels strengthened across brands.
Q4 revenues rose 7 per cent, driven by robust Moncler and Stone Island performance, as the group prepares for continued investment and leadership transition.
Regionally, the group recorded strong momentum in Asia, where revenues rose 7 per cent at constant exchange rates to €1.42 billion, supported by demand in China and Korea and a recovery in tourist flows. The Americas increased 5 per cent to €391.1 million, whereas Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 3 per cent amid subdued tourism-related traffic, Moncler said in a press release.
Channel performance highlighted the continued shift towards direct engagement. Moncler’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) revenues rose 4 per cent to €2.36 billion, accounting for nearly 87 per cent of brand sales, while wholesale declined 4 per cent as the group continued to enhance distribution quality. Stone Island’s DTC channel expanded 11 per cent to €226.4 million, whereas wholesale decreased 4 per cent.
The group’s financial position strengthened further, with net cash reaching €1.46 billion at year-end after dividend payments of €353.2 million. The board proposed a dividend of €1.4 per share and approved the consolidated sustainability statement.
Remo Ruffini, chairman and CEO of Moncler, said: “Moncler and its board of directors wish to express their most sincere thanks to Gabriele Galateri di Genola for his dedication and the highly valuable contribution he has made throughout his more than ten-year term of office. His significant experience, the vision developed over many years in senior leadership positions at leading industrial and financial organisations, as well as his constant commitment to good governance, have represented a key point of reference for our work. With gratitude, we extend our best wishes to Gabriele Galateri di Genola for the future.”
In the fourth quarter (Q4), the group delivered accelerated momentum, with revenues rising 7 per cent at constant exchange rates to €1.29 billion (~$1.52 billion). Moncler brand revenues reached €1.17 billion, up 6 per cent, while Stone Island posted €123.1 million, surging 16 per cent with double-digit growth across all regions.
Moncler’s DTC channel advanced 7 per cent despite a demanding comparable base in the quarter, supported by Asia and the Americas, while wholesale returned to growth, rising 2 per cent. Stone Island recorded broad-based acceleration, with DTC revenues increasing 16 per cent and wholesale climbing 17 per cent, partly reflecting delivery timing shifts from the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, the group emphasised continued investment in brand development and organisational strengthening, including the appointment of Leo Rongone as group chief executive officer from April 2026, as it seeks to sustain long-term growth and value creation.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
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