Fashion
The sneaker boom had a long run. Now some analysts say it’s over
By
Bloomberg
Published
January 11, 2026
For nearly two decades, sports brands benefited as people swapped out dress shoes for sneakers when heading everywhere from the airport to fancy restaurants and even the office.
That’s been a boon for Adidas AG, Nike Inc. and Puma SE, which capitalized on consumers’ changing tastes by serving up snazzy, comfy kicks that people wanted to wear on and off the playing field. The rising demand for sports shoes also underpinned the rapid growth of challengers like Hoka and On Holding AG, which emerged in the wake of the financial crisis and quickly became popular brands.
Now the future of that longstanding sneaker boom is being called into question, most notably by Bank of America analysts led by Thierry Cota. They rocked the footwear world last week with a 61-page analysis concluding that the growth prospects for these sports brands are rapidly dimming.
They argue that the sporting goods sector had enjoyed a 20-year “upcycle” that lifted sneakers from less than a quarter of world footwear sales to at least a half — a trend that culminated during the Covid pandemic, when millions of people were suddenly working from home. “With this structural shift largely complete, prospects for future revenue growth are now significantly reduced,” the analysts said.
They accompanied that view with a rare “double downgrade” of Adidas, abandoning their “buy” rating and declaring the stock one of the least attractive in the industry.
Their contention that the sneaker boom has passed its peak prompted a backlash from skeptics who say the casual footwear trend has room to run. Longtime industry analyst Matt Powell, an adviser at consulting firm Spurwink River, conveyed that sentiment on LinkedIn, where he posted a Barron’s article about the research and commented: “C’mon, man! No evidence of this.”
Adidas shares plunged as much as 7.6% in response to the downgrade on Tuesday, before recovering part of those losses by the end of the week.
Sneakers now make up about 60% of footwear sales in the US, according to Beth Goldstein, an analyst at Circana in New York. Sport shoes have won over the population as part of a wider societal push toward comfort, health and wellness, priorities that probably aren’t going to disappear anytime soon, she said. The US sneaker category grew 4% last year through November, while the fashion category dropped 3%, she added.
“The sneaker business is larger than ever,” she said. “I wouldn’t even call casualization a trend — it’s just a key consumer preference.”
Yet the sneaker makers have run into headwinds since the pandemic as they sometimes failed to keep up with shoppers’ fickle tastes, saw sales cool particularly in China, and faced the threat of US tariffs. Shares of Adidas are down by almost a third in the past year, and even On Holding’s stock is down by more than 10% in the period, despite strong revenue growth.
“We don’t believe the casualization trend is over — rather, it has stabilized, with wardrobes now more balanced,” said Poonam Goyal, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
“The category has moved beyond the pandemic-driven demand spike and is now operating in a more normalized environment.”
There are signs that sneakers are bleeding into the dress shoe category. In 2025, the top-traded loafer on Stockx, an online resale platform, was the New Balance 1906L, which looks like the offspring of a preppy boat shoe and a marathon trainer. It’s also common these days to see movie stars and fashion influencers donning spiffed-up, expensive versions of trainers, often in collaboration with luxury brands like Gucci and Moncler.
The analysts at Bank of America didn’t suggest that people are going to ditch their sneakers for patent leather oxfords anytime soon. Rather, they indicated that sporting goods — after booming during the pandemic — have since mid-2023 been growing at a slower-than-average pace compared with the past couple of decades.
While that typically could mean the industry is poised to take off again, no big rebound is apparent, the analysts argued. They cited data ranging from recent credit card purchases to sluggish sales figures from Asian footwear and apparel suppliers to less-than-bullish commentary from industry leaders regarding the outlook for 2026.
If the sporting goods industry grew by an average of about 9% a year since 2007, as millions of people traded in dress shoes for sneakers, the future annual expansion may only be about 4% or 5%, they suggested.
Their optimistic take is that the industry is in a prolonged slump because of consumers fearing economic conditions and recent stumbles at Nike. That could mean that the sneaker boom still has legs and will resurge as early as 2027.
“The alternative is much worse and more likely, in our view,” the Bank of America analysts added. “The emergence of a new, less favorable long-term industry paradigm.”
At the same time, growing demands on fiscal policy require governments not only to respond to immediate shocks, but also to support growth, facilitate structural transformation and reduce poverty and inequality over the medium to long term, it noted.
With fiscal positions weakened and policy space narrowed, ASEAN+3 policymakers must safeguard fiscal sustainability and rebuild buffers, the ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report 2026 said.
Governments should also support growth, facilitate structural transformation and reduce poverty and inequality over the medium to long term, it noted.
Particular attention should be given to liabilities outside the budget.
ASEAN+3 comprises members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, along with China, South Korea and Japan.
These competing demands are compounded by sluggish revenue growth and rigid budget structures. Addressing these challenges will require stronger fiscal management frameworks, including improvements in risk management, fiscal aggregate management, strategic resource allocation, spending efficiency and revenue mobilisation.
The report also highlights the importance of comprehensive fiscal risk management, urging policymakers to strengthen the identification, assessment and disclosure of fiscal risks.
Particular attention should be given to liabilities outside the budget, including borrowing by off-budget public entities and government arrears.
Systematic monitoring and proactive management of contingent liabilities are essential, especially those related to government guarantees, public-private partnerships, state-owned enterprises and social security obligations, the report remarked.
Enhancing fiscal aggregate management, alongside improving strategic resource allocation and spending efficiency, will be critical to meeting rising expenditure demands in line with national priorities, while safeguarding fiscal sustainability and rebuilding buffers, it added.
The report further encourages policymakers to implement comprehensive and durable revenue-enhancing measures, including strengthening tax administration—particularly through digitalisation—rationalising tax expenditures and advancing structural reforms to major taxes.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
The piece of legislation, aimed at addressing long-standing challenges to the enforcement of intellectual property rights (IPR) at US borders, was reported with unanimous, bipartisan support from the House Ways and Means Committee.
AAFA along with 18 other trade bodies recently wrote to Congressional leadership in the US House of Representatives seeking support to move HR 4930 forward in the legislative process.
The piece of legislation, aimed at addressing long-standing challenges to the enforcement of IPR at US borders, was reported with unanimous, bipartisan support from the House Ways and Means Committee.
“We encourage you to move swiftly in bringing the bill to the Floor,” the letter noted.
In fiscal 2023-2024, US Customs & Border Protection (CBP) seized over 32 million counterfeit and pirated items, valued in excess of $5 billion, across more than 300 ports of entry, the letter noted.
“More disconcerting though is the rate at which those figures are increasing. In just the past five years, the number of illicit goods seized by CBP has more than doubled, while the value of those goods has grown by more than 400 per cent,” the letter said.
“The cost of this criminal trafficking cannot be measured in dollars alone though, but in the injuries caused by often dangerous fakes that put consumers’ health and safety at risk, in diminished investments to drive the next wave of innovation by American businesses, in jobs lost
to unfair competition, and increasingly, by the threats such products pose to our national security,” the letter said.
The overwhelming volume of trade passing through U.S. ports, and the speed at which it moves, presents a significant obstacle to effective border enforcement, it noted.
While Congress has expressed a clear desire in recent years for greater partnership between the public and private sectors on these issues, CBP has raised concerns over both the scope of its authority to share information with, and to seek assistance from, its partners in the private sector in carrying out its IP enforcement mission, it said.
HR 4930 clarifies and expands the agency’s authority, offering practical tools to safeguard consumers and legitimate businesses.
“It is essential that CBP has the ability to work with relevant stakeholders throughout the supply chain, both to avoid the siloing of information that has often hindered the agency’s efficiency, and to ensure that the private sector can offer effective and timely assistance on matters of trade enforcement, thereby ensuring that bad actors and trade cheats are held accountable,” the letter added.
The trade associations which signed the letter include Baby Safety Alliance, International AntiCounterfeiting Coalition, International Intellectual Property Association, Personal Care Products Council and Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)
This marks the first comprehensive revision in decades, with the last fee increases recorded in 1998 for trademarks, 2016 for designs, and 2018 for patents. The IPO stated that the changes aim to address a 32 per cent rise in inflation since 2016 while supporting continued investment in digital systems and services.
The UK IPO has increased fees for trademarks, designs and patents from April 1, 2026 under new rules, marking the first major revision in years.
The move reflects a 32 per cent rise in inflation since 2016 and aims to support continued investment in digital systems and services, with transitional provisions applicable for certain filings and payments.
The updated fees apply to all applications and payments made on or after April 1, 2026. Transitional provisions have also been outlined for certain cases. For designs, deferred registration requests submitted from April 1 onwards will be subject to the new fees, even if the original application was filed earlier.
For trademarks, applicants using the permitted period of grace may still be eligible to pay the previous fee, provided the application was filed before April 1 and any outstanding payment is completed within the IPO’s deadline.
Separately, UKFT has submitted industry feedback to the IPO regarding the UK’s updated Design Framework, which is expected to be announced later this year.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (JP)
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