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Trump sees a ‘dead economy’ – but US-based S&P Global upgrades India’s credit rating – here’s why – Times of India

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Trump sees a ‘dead economy’ – but US-based S&P Global upgrades India’s credit rating – here’s why – Times of India


S&P has said that the impact of US tariffs is not likely to be extensive on India’s economy.

S&P Global, the US-based credit ratings agency, has upgraded India’s rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-) citing several positive factors in favour of the world’s fifth largest economy. S&P’s confidence in India’s growth story comes at a time when US President Donald Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports to America, and has even called India a ‘dead economy’. This is reportedly the first rating upgrade for India in almost 19 years.The credit rating of an economy reflects the country’s ability and willingness to repay debt. It is a crucial indicator of economic health, indicating the risk level for investors and lenders.

Trump’s ‘Indian Economy Dead’ Jibe Falls Flat; RBI Guv Drops Bombshell | ‘Doing Better Than U.S.’

“The upgrade of India reflects its buoyant economic growth, against the backdrop of an enhanced monetary policy environment that anchors inflationary expectations. Together with the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation and efforts to improve spending quality, we believe these factors have coalesced to benefit credit metrics,” S&P said.

Little impact of Trump’s tariffs on India

Not only has S&P upgraded India’s sovereign rating, it has also said that the impact of US tariffs is not likely to be extensive on India’s economy.“We believe the effect of US tariffs on the Indian economy will be manageable. India is relatively less reliant on trade and about 60% of its economic growth stems from domestic consumption,” S&P Global said.“We expect that in the event India has to switch from importing Russian crude oil, the fiscal cost, if fully borne by the government, will be modest given the narrow price differential between Russian crude and current international benchmarks,” it said.While the United States is India’s biggest trading ally, the potential imposition of 50% tariffs is not anticipated to significantly hinder economic growth. Exports from India to the US account for roughly 2% of the country’s GDP, S&P notes.Taking into account specific exemptions for sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer electronics, the portion of Indian exports that would be affected by these tariffs decreases to 1.2% of GDP. Although this could lead to a temporary setback in growth, we predict that the overall effect will be minimal and will not disrupt India’s long-term economic trajectory, it added.Also Read | ’Secondary tariffs could go up…’: US official warns of higher sanctions on India if Trump’s talks with Putin fail; asks Europe to ‘put up or shut up’After Trump’s move to impose high tariffs on India, several global institutions and experts have predicted that India’s GDP growth may take an up to 0.3% hit due to US trade moves.

Major items US imports from India

Major items US imports from India

Why did S&P upgrade India’s credit rating?

  1. India continues to be one of the top-performing economies globally. It has made a significant recovery from the pandemic, with real GDP growth from fiscal year 2022 (ending March 31) to fiscal year 2024 averaging 8.8%, the highest in the Asia-Pacific region.
  2. The Indian economy’s overall size is now believed to be approximately 80% bigger in rupee terms compared to its pre-COVID state, and nearly 50% larger when measured in dollars. However, the pace of economic growth is stabilizing towards a more sustainable rate, maintaining strong momentum.
  3. S&P anticipates that this growth trend will persist in the medium term, with GDP projected to rise by 6.8% annually over the next three years. This growth helps to moderate the government debt-to-GDP ratio, despite the presence of substantial fiscal deficits.
  4. The recent performance of India’s economy underscores its enduring strength. S&P’s forecasts for robust growth, despite external challenges, are based on the country’s positive structural developments. These include favorable demographics and competitive labor costs.
  5. India’s corporate and financial sectors have improved their balance sheets compared to the pre-pandemic period. Nonetheless, S&P acknowledges that maintaining high growth rates over an extended period is essential for the economy to generate enough jobs, lessen inequality, and fully capitalize on its demographic advantages.
  6. India’s fiscal weaknesses have historically been the most fragile aspect of its sovereign credit ratings. However, with the economy now on a solid recovery path, the government is able to outline a clearer, though gradual, strategy for fiscal consolidation. S&P forecasts suggest that the general government deficit, which is 7.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2026, will decrease to 6.6% by fiscal year 2029.
  7. Over the past five to six years, the quality of government expenditure has seen improvement, says S&P. The current government has increasingly prioritized infrastructure in its budget allocations. The union government’s capital expenditure is projected to rise to 11.2 trillion Indian rupees, or approximately 3.1% of GDP, by fiscal year 2026, up from 2% of GDP a decade ago.
  8. When including capital spending by state governments, total public investment in infrastructure is expected to be around 5.5% of GDP, which is comparable to or exceeds that of similar sovereign entities. S&P anticipate that enhancements in infrastructure and connectivity in India will eliminate bottlenecks that currently impede long-term economic growth.
  9. The shift in monetary policy towards inflation targeting has proven beneficial. Inflation expectations are now more stable compared to ten years ago. From 2008 to 2014, India frequently experienced inflation rates in the double digits. However, over the last three years, despite fluctuations in global energy prices and supply disruptions, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has grown at an average rate of 5.5%. Recently, it has remained at the lower end of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range of 2%-6%. These changes, along with a robust domestic capital market, indicate a more stable and conducive environment for monetary policy, says S&P.
  10. India’s sovereign ratings are supported by a vibrant and rapidly expanding economy, a strong external balance sheet, and democratic institutions that ensure policy consistency. These positive aspects are offset by the government’s poor fiscal performance, high debt levels, and low GDP per capita.

Indian Economy: The road ahead

“The Indian general elections resulted in a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi after his Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) won the largest number of seats but fell short of an absolute majority. The subsequent formation of a coalition government is a first for the BJP, which has ruled independently in its previous two terms,”S&P said.“But the BJP retains a healthy majority in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament. This supports the government’s efforts to implement economic reforms. Since the beginning of economic liberalization in 1991, India has had consistently high GDP growth while governed by different political parties and coalitions–reflecting a consensus on key economic policies,” it adds.Also Read | ‘Can’t cross some red lines’: Government officials tell Parliamentary Panel on India-US trade talks; focus on export diversification amidst Trump tariffs“In our view, the success of the government in funding large infrastructure investment without substantially widening the country’s current account deficit will be important. If India can shrink the fiscal deficit significantly while achieving these objectives, rating support will strengthen over time,” it says.According to S&P Global, its stable outlook indicates the belief that India’s long-term growth prospects will be bolstered by consistent policy stability and significant infrastructure investments. This, coupled with prudent fiscal and monetary policies that help manage the government’s high debt and interest obligations, will support the rating over the next two years.S&P said that it may upgrade the ratings if fiscal deficits significantly decrease, leading to a structural reduction in the net change of general government debt to below 6% of GDP. Sustained increases in public infrastructure investment would enhance economic growth, and when combined with fiscal reforms, could strengthen India’s weak public finances.However, S&P said it might consider lowering the ratings if it sees a decline in political commitment to improving public finances. Additionally, if India’s economic growth significantly slows down in a way that threatens fiscal sustainability, it could also exert downward pressure.





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Business news live: The firms bidding for Costa Coffee and Nvidia share price falls

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Business news live: The firms bidding for Costa Coffee and Nvidia share price falls



Costa Coffee: How much will it cost and what happens next?

Reports suggest Costa Coffee could be on the market for around £2bn.

That’s half of what it was bought for six years ago but coffee sales in the UK are below the level now from when Coca-Cola bought it.

There are more than 2,000 stores in the UK and Costa operates across 50 different countries, though Coca-Cola have not released figures on total stores or employees worldwide.

Costa has about 38% of the UK coffee market share according to research, but it is under pressure from cheaper alternatives like Gregg’s, and more upmarket offerings such as local specialist coffee boutiques or independent cafes.

Add in increased employer costs this year in the UK and it’s clearly a tough time for many businesses right now – though it’s still one which recorded revenues of £1.2bn in 2023.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 10:00

Costa Coffee up for sale: Who wants to buy it?

Costa Coffee is a UK high street staple. You see it pretty much everywhere: main shops, inside shopping centres, even within petrol stations in a tiny kiosk or machine.

But it’s not a standalone company; Costa was bought by Coca-Cola in 2019 for nearly £4bn.

Since then the drinks firm has struggled to integrate it properly within its wider ecosystem and doesn’t feel the brand is generating the return it wanted. So, it’s up for sale – potentially at least, as one of several possible outcomes of a review.

At present there are three main parties who seem to be at least exploring a deal.

Apollo Global Management is the eventual parent of restaurants like Wagamama, and Bar Burrito.

KKR is a US-based private equity firm who have also held early talks, according to reports.

And Sky News initially reported a “small number” of firms who may have had exploratory talks.

There’s still a chance a sale doesn’t go through, but bids are expected in October.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 09:45

Reeves ‘plots tax raid on landlords’ to help plug £40bn Budget black hole

The plans aim to make the Treasury £2bn, as it attempts to avoid breaking the chancellor’s “red lines” outlined before the general election, which included not increasing VAT, income tax or national insurance.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 09:10

Lottery firm valued at £9.6bn after Czech owner sells part of stake

Czech tycoon Karel Komarek’s investment vehicle has sold a stake in Allwyn in a deal valuing the National Lottery operator at 11.2 billion euros (£9.6 billion).

Allwyn said central European investment fund J&T Arch has snapped up a 4.27% stake in the business from Mr Komarek’s KKCG business, which remains the majority owner.

In 2019, KKCG took 100% control of European lottery group Sazka Group before rebranding it as Allwyn.

It was awarded the licence to run the National Lottery in 2022.

Later that year, Allwyn then agreed a takeover deal for Camelot, which had previously run the UK’s National Lottery licence.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 08:45

Nvidia: Shares fall despite $46.7bn earnings beating expectations

Last night was a key event in the stock markets as Nvidia reported their earnings for the last quarter.

Without going into the finances in too much detail, $46.7bn in earnings was more than expected and earnings per share was higher than analysts’ anticipated levels too – but the share price fell after data centre revenue fell $0.2bn short of predictions.

It fell around 3 per cent initially but has since bounced back in pre-market trading, with the Nasdaq firm set to open 1.9 per cent lower according to the latest futures markets.

Nvidia is the biggest company in the world, valued at over $4tn, and the share price hit a new all time high at just over $183 earlier this month.

It’ll be around $177-178 later this afternoon when markets open, if it stays down in the 2-3 per cent range.

It’s value is so carefully watched as it makes up a significant chunk of many funds, including a basic tracker of US companies or more specifically tech-focused ones.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 08:30

Royal Mail launches services to help customers post to US after new charges

Royal Mail has announced it will be the first international postal operator to launch new services so people can continue sending goods to the United States ahead of new customs requirements coming into effect on Friday.

From today, Royal Mail customers can use the company’s new postal delivery duties paid (PDDP) services.

The move follows a US executive order last month which said that goods valued at 800 dollars or less will no longer be exempt from import duties and taxes from August 29.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 08:15

FTSE 100 in small rise after opening

The FTSE 100 fell yesterday as an afternoon slump left it around 0.1 per cent down for the day – and it’s up by less than that at the start of trading, about 0.06 per cent in the green.

There are no massive names reporting today but a few such as the Macfarlane Group and PPHE Hotel Group – which owns brands like Park Plaza, Radisson Collection and others – are some of the smaller or FTSE 250 firms set for reporting.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 08:06

Business and Money news live

Good morning all, we’ll get rolling today with FTSE 100 news and looking at Nvidia’s results from last night, then we’ve got a roundup of the bidding battle for Costa Coffee – a UK high street staple.

Karl Matchett28 August 2025 07:54



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Indigo Shares Decline Over 4% On Promoter Offloading Stake

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Indigo Shares Decline Over 4% On Promoter Offloading Stake


Mumbai: The shares of InterGlobe Aviation, the parent company of IndiGo Airlines, tanked over 4 per cent in the early trading on Thursday on news of promoter Rakesh Gangwal’s family selling stocks worth Rs 7,085 crore through a block deal.  

At around 11:38 am, the shares were trading at Rs 5,789.0, down 4.31 per cent or Rs 261.

The promoter family is likely to sell 1.2 lakh shares, worth Rs 7,085 crore, at an average price of Rs 5,830 per share.

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(Also Read: Key Financial Rules Changing From September 2025)

 

According to earlier media reports, the Gangwal family plans to sell up to 3.1 per cent of InterGlobe Aviation through block deals valued at approximately Rs 7,020 crore.

A floor price of Rs 5,808 per share, or about 4 per cent less than the closing price of the previous session, was anticipated for the block deal.

With this, the family’s persistent withdrawal from IndiGo continues.

They have been reducing their stake in the airline since Rakesh Gangwal left the board in February 2022; as of 2025, they have sold almost 9 per cent of the company.

(Also Read: What Is GST Compensation Cess? GST Council May End It By October 31)

By reducing their ownership of InterGlobe Aviation, Rakesh Gangwal and his family have raised more than Rs 45,300 crore since 2022.

In September 2022, a 2.74 per cent stake worth Rs 2,005 crore was sold. In February 2023, his wife, Shobha Gangwal, sold a 4 per cent stake for Rs 2,944 crore, and in August 2023, a further 2.9 per cent stake was sold for slightly more than Rs 2,800 crore.

Despite a 4.7 per cent increase in revenue, IndiGo recently reported a 20 per cent year-over-year drop in net profit for the first quarter of FY26, with earnings of Rs 2,176 crore.

Higher fuel prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and other external factors were the primary causes of the decline in profitability.

However, the airline continued to demonstrate strong operational performance, as evidenced by its 84.2 per cent passenger load factor and 87.1 per cent on-time performance.



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Top stocks to buy today: Stock recommendations for August 28, 2025 – check list – The Times of India

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Top stocks to buy today: Stock recommendations for August 28, 2025 – check list – The Times of India


Top stocks to buy today (AI image)

Top stock market recommendations: According to Aakash K Hindocha, Deputy Vice President – WM Research, Nuvama Professional Clients Group, Nykaa, Kaynes, and Dr Reddy’s Laboratories are the top buy calls for today. Here’s his view on Nifty, Bank Nifty and the top stock picks for August 28, 2025:Index View: NiftyAfter an inside bar formation on Monday, Nifty opened with a gap down reeling all throughout the session ahead of its trading holiday on Wednesday. The index has closed below its trailing support of 24800 allowing for further downside to be opened for 24500 / 24350. Nifty has also formed a bearish head and shoulders formation on daily charts with a neck line support seen at 24450. A break below the same post monthly expiry could reel in further pressure on the index.Bank NiftyUnderperforming Nifty, Bank has broken its support of 55050 opening for a test of sub 54000 odd levels to begin with. The index has also closed at a 3.5 month low on daily charts ahead of its monthly expiry scheduled on Thursday. 55000 is likely to act as resistance on the upside while the index slides below sub 54000 levels in the coming week.NYKAA (BUY):

  • LCP: 231.65
  • Stop Loss: 223
  • Target: 252

Stock has been gaining traction ever since its 3 year triangle breakout seen in June 2025. For now NYKAA has given the highest ever close in past 3 years of trading along with a huge cup and handle breakout on daily and weekly charts. This opens up for a 18-20% trading buy target on the stock, yet we would advise for an initial uptick being 250+ on this leg.KAYNES (BUY):

  • LCP: 6197
  • Stop Loss: 5980
  • Target: 6620

After a cup and handle breakout in early August 2025, stock has been consolidating near the breakout zone for the past 4 weeks now. Last week’s price action suggests further move northwards from CMP as the stock has completed multiple retests of its ongoing breakout.Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (BUY):

  • LCP: 1263
  • Stop Loss: 1230
  • Target: 1355

Sustaining above its 200 DMA support, DRREDDY’s has also given a bullish flag breakout on daily charts. This allows its initial upside to open for the 1350-1360 zone where it could meet another potential breakout on upside.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)





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