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Trump wants Venezuela’s oil. Will his plan work?

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Trump wants Venezuela’s oil. Will his plan work?


Archie Mitchell,Business reporterand

Natalie Sherman,Business reporter

Reuters A flame burning natural gas at an oil treatment plant operated by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSAReuters

Donald Trump has vowed to tap into Venezuela’s oil reserves after seizing President Nicolás Maduro and outlining plans to “run” the country.

The US president wants American oil firms to pile billions of dollars into the South American country, which has the largest crude oil reserves on the planet, to mobilise the largely untapped resource.

He said US companies will fix Venezuela’s “badly broken” oil infrastructure and “start making money for the country”.

But experts warned of huge challenges with Trump’s plan, saying it would cost billions and take up to a decade to produce a meaningful uplift in oil output.

So can the US really take control of Venezuela’s oil reserves? And will Trump’s plan work?

How much oil does Venezuela have?

It is true that with an estimated 303 billion barrels, Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

But the amount of oil the country actually produces today is tiny by comparison.

Output has dropped off sharply since the early 2000s, as former President Hugo Chavez and then the Maduro administration tightened control over the state-run oil company, PDVSA, leading to an exodus of more experienced staff.

Though some Western oil firms, including the US company Chevron, are still active in the country, their operations have shrunk significantly as the US has widened sanctions and targeted oil exports, aiming to curb Maduro’s access to a key economic lifeline.

Sanctions – which the US first put in place in 2015 during President Barack Obama’s administration over alleged human rights violations – have also left the country largely cut off from the investment and the parts it needs.

“The real challenge they’ve got is their infrastructure,” says Callum Macpherson, head of commodities at Investec.

In November, Venezuela produced an estimated 860,000 barrels per day, according to the latest oil market report from the International Energy Agency.

That is barely a third of what it was 10 years ago and accounts for less than 1% of world oil consumption.

The country’s oil reserves are made up of so-called “heavy, sour” oil. It is harder to refine, but useful for making diesel and asphalt. The US typically produces “light, sweet” oil used to make petrol.

In the run-up to the strikes and capture of Maduro, the US also seized two oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, as well as ordering a blockade of sanctioned tankers entering and leaving the country.

What are the challenges for oil firms?

Homayoun Falakshahi, senior commodity analyst at data platform Kpler, said the key hurdles for oil firms hoping to exploit Venezuelan reserves are legal and political.

Speaking to the BBC, he said those hoping to drill in Venezuela would need an agreement with the government, which will not be possible until Maduro’s successor is in place.

Companies would then be left gambling billions of investment on the stability of a future Venezuelan government, Mr Falakshahi added.

“Even if the political situation is stable, it’s a process that takes months,” he said. Companies hoping to take advantage of Trump’s plan would need to sign contracts with the new government when it is in place, before beginning the process of ramping up investment in infrastructure in Venezuela.

Analysts have also warned it would take tens of billions of dollars – and potentially a decade – to restore Venezuela’s former output.

Could the plan lower global oil prices?

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, said Trump’s plans would have a limited impact on the global supply, and therefore price, of oil.

He told the BBC there are “an enormous number of hurdles to overcome and the timeframe of what is going to happen is so long” that oil prices in 2026 would likely see little change.

Mr Shearing said firms would not invest until a stable government is in place in Venezuela, and the projects would not deliver for “many, many years”.

“The issue has always been decades of underinvestment, mismanagement and it is really expensive to extract,” he said.

He added that even if the country could return to previous production levels of around 3 million barrels per day, it would still be outside the world’s top 10 producers.

And Mr Shearing pointed to high production among OPEC+ countries, saying the world is currently “not suffering from a shortage of oil”.

A map of Venezuela showing its borders with Colombia, Brazil and Guyana. Inside the Venezuela section of the map it shows main oil pupelines and oilfields. The Orinaco Belt in the central area is outlined.

What have the oil companies said?

Chevron is the only American oil producer still active in Venezuela, after receiving a licence under former President Joe Biden in 2022 to operate, despite US sanctions.

The company, currently responsible for around a fifth of Venezuelan oil extraction, said it is focused on the safety of its employees and is complying “with all relevant laws and regulations”.

Other major oil firms have been publicly silent on the plans so far, with only Chevron addressing the situation.

But Mr Falakshahi said oil bosses will be in talks internally about whether to take advantage of the opportunity.

He added: “The appetite to go somewhere is linked to two main factors, the political situation and the resources on the ground.”

Despite the hugely uncertain political situation, Mr Falakshahi said “the potential prize may be deemed too big to avoid”.



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Tehran accused of ‘weaponising’ Hormuz as oil gains ahead of US-Iran talks

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Tehran accused of ‘weaponising’ Hormuz as oil gains ahead of US-Iran talks


The Strait of Hormuz is still not fully open despite the USIran ceasefire, according to the head of Abu Dhabi’s state oil company.

Sultan Al Jaber, the chief executive officer of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, said in a post on LinkedIn that “access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled” through the world’s most critical waterway.

“The weaponisation of this vital waterway, in any form, cannot stand. This would set a dangerous precedent for the world – undermining the principle of freedom of navigation that underpins global trade and, ultimately, the stability of the global economy,” Mr Al Jaber wrote.

“An estimated 230 vessels sit loaded with oil and ready to sail. They, and every vessel that follows, must be free to navigate this corridor without condition. No country has a legitimate right to determine who may pass and under what terms. Iran has made clear – through both its statements and actions – that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage. That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion.”

Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, after US and Israeli attacks in late February, leaving around 1,400 ships stranded on either side.

However, despite the USIran truce agreed on Wednesday, which supposedly included reopening the strait, very few ships have actually moved.

This uncertainty has pushed energy prices higher and caused stock markets across Asia and Europe to fall, as fears grow that the truce may already be breaking down and tensions could escalate again.

“Every day the strait remains restricted, the consequences compound. Supply is delayed, markets tighten, prices rise. The impact is felt beyond energy markets, in economies, industries and households worldwide. Every day matters. Every delay deepens the disruption,” Mr Al Jaber wrote.

Asian stocks mostly rose on Friday, following gains on Wall Street (AP)

Asian stocks mostly rose on Friday, following gains on Wall Street, while oil prices also edged higher amid a fragile Iran ceasefire and upcoming US-Iran talks. Major indices, including South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted strong gains, with Japanese retailer Fast Retailing surging after raising profit forecasts.

London’s FTSE 100, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite Index also climbed, even as China reported softer-than-expected inflation.

Elsewhere, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped, while Taiwan and India saw moderate gains.

Oil and gas prices have swung sharply amid the ongoing uncertainty. Brent crude jumped more than 4 per cent to above $99 (£74) a barrel on Thursday, while US crude surged 8 per cent to over $102, reversing a steep drop the previous day when Brent had fallen more than 13 per cent to a four-week low.

“The initial wave of relief following president Trump’s two-week ceasefire announcement has quickly given way to underlying doubts,” IG Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore said.

“All eyes remain firmly on tanker tracker flows through the Strait of Hormuz for any signs of increased activity ahead of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan.”

Gas markets showed a similar pattern: UK gas prices edged up after a 15 per cent plunge, and European natural gas futures rebounded from recent lows.

Tensions remained high as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of a “regret-inducing response” if Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon, which have already caused heavy casualties.



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OpenAI halts UK data centre project over energy costs and red tape

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OpenAI halts UK data centre project over energy costs and red tape


ChatGPT developer OpenAI has halted plans for a significant UK data centre project, citing high energy costs and regulatory challenges as barriers to investment.

The US technology giant had intended to establish its “Stargate” data centre initiative within a new artificial intelligence growth zone in the north-east of England.

The venture was slated for multiple sites, including Cobalt Park near Newcastle and Blyth.

However, OpenAI said the plans are now on hold, awaiting “the right conditions” to facilitate long-term infrastructure investment across the UK.

A spokesman for OpenAI said: “We see huge potential for the UK’s AI future. London is home to our largest international research hub, and we support the Government’s ambition to be an AI leader.

“AI compute is foundational to that goal – we continue to explore Stargate UK and will move forward when the right conditions such as regulation and the cost of energy enable long-term infrastructure investment.”

OpenAi says it continues to ‘explore’ Stargate UK (Getty/iStock)

The reference to energy costs come at a time when prices are being pushed higher by the US and Israel’s war with Iran.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in March that the UK was one of the nations particularly exposed to soaring wholesale costs because of its reliance on gas-fired power, as opposed to sources such as nuclear and renewable energy.

Data centres are powered by very large amounts of energy so are more likely to be exposed to volatile prices.

OpenAI added: “In the meantime, we are investing in talent and expanding our local presence, while also delivering on the commitments under our MOU (memorandum of understanding) with the Government to adopt frontier AI in UK public services.”

Its Stargate project aims to invest billions of dollars into AI infrastructure in the US, with funding from OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle and MGX and partnering with tech giants including Nvidia and Microsoft.

Building it into the UK came as part of a landmark tech deal between Britain and the US, announced last September amid President Donald Trump’s second state visit.

The deal also included a 30 billion US dollar (£22.3 billion) pledge from Microsoft, the largest ever made by the company in the UK, to fund the expansion of Britain’s AI infrastructure.

Conservative MP and shadow science minister Ben Spencer said: “When global firms cite high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty as reasons to walk away, it tells you everything about the direction of travel.

“For too long, Labour have prioritised courting big tech headlines while neglecting our domestic start-ups, but also the fundamentals that actually attract investment at home.”



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He paid $248 in illegal tariffs for this coat. Will he ever get it back?

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He paid 8 in illegal tariffs for this coat. Will he ever get it back?



Importers are in line for tariff refunds. But whether everyone who paid the for the tariffs will get money back is a trickier question.



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