Politics
US intelligence says Iran govt not at risk of collapse

- US intelligence says Iran’s leadership remains stable.
- IRGC continues to dominate security and economic sectors.
- Israel admits regime collapse is not guaranteed.
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON: US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss US intelligence findings.
The latest report was completed within the last few days, the source said.
With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest US military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.
The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the US and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials in closed discussions also have acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Shifting objectives
Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.
The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.
Still, the US intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior leaders, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.
Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a fourth source familiar with the matter.
It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.
It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.
The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops into Iran.
Intelligence suggests Kurds lack firepower to fight Iran
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq consulted with the US about how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.
Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on Wednesday that the parties are highly organised inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive US support.
Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of US and Israeli strikes.
“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent US intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.
The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.
The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and US lawmakers for the US to provide them with weapons and armoured vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.
Politics
Some 287 nominated for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, Trump likely among them

Some 287 candidates will be considered for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, the secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said on Thursday, with US President Donald Trump likely to be among the nominees.
Of this year’s nominations, 208 are individuals and 79 are organisations, said Kristian Berg Harpviken, adding that there were many new nominees compared to last year.
“Since I am new in the job, one of the things that has to some extent surprised me is how much renewal there is from year to year on the list,” Harpviken said in an interview. He has held the position since January 2025.
Despite the number of conflicts rising worldwide and international cooperation under pressure, the award remains relevant, he added.
“The Peace Prize is even more important in a period like the one we’re living in,” he said. “There is as much good work, if not more, than ever.”
Trump likely nominated, but not confirmed
The leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have said they nominated Trump for this year’s prize. Their nominations, if made, would have been done in spring and summer 2025, and they are therefore valid given the deadline was January 31.
There is no way of verifying they have done as they have said as nominations remain secret for 50 years and Harpviken declined to say on Thursday whether Trump had been nominated.
A nomination is not an endorsement by the award body.
In addition to committee members, thousands of people worldwide can propose names: members of governments and parliaments; current heads of state; university professors of history, social sciences, law and philosophy; and former Nobel Peace Prize laureates, among others.
Many names appear on betting sites giving odds on this year’s possible laureates, from Russia’s Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, to Pope Leo and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer aid group, among others.
Concern for health of jailed Iranian laureate
Harpviken said the committee was deeply concerned about the health of the 2023 Peace Prize laureate, Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, which is worsening after she suffered a heart attack in prison.
Her supporters said on Wednesday her life was in imminent danger.
“Her sister was able to visit her in prison yesterday and the reports coming out after that are actually quite alarming as to her health condition,” said Harpviken.
“We see there is a lot of international pressure now. So we hope that the Iranian authorities do pay attention to that and release her so that she can have proper medical treatment.”
Who else could be nominated?
Among possible nominees for this year’s prize are Lisa Murkowski, the US senator for Alaska, and Aaja Chemnitz, a member of the Danish parliament elected from Greenland, according to the Norwegian lawmaker who nominated them both.
“Together they have worked relentlessly to build trust and to secure a peaceful development of the Arctic region over many years,” said the lawmaker, Lars Haltbrekken.
Greenland has been in particular focus this year due to Trump’s relentless push to acquire the island from Nato ally Denmark.
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 9, while the ceremony will take place on December 10.
Politics
US jury convicts Sharifullah linked to 2021 Kabul airport attack

A US federal jury convicted an Afghan man on Wednesday of providing support to the Daesh in Afghanistan but failed to agree on whether he was involved in the deadly 2021 suicide bombing at Kabul airport.
Mohammad Sharifullah, a member of the Daesh-Khorasan, was convicted in Virginia of conspiracy to provide material support to a terrorist organisation.
President Donald Trump, in an address to Congress last year, had described Sharifullah as the “top terrorist responsible” for the Kabul airport attack that killed at least 170 Afghans and 13 American troops.
The jury found Sharifullah guilty of providing support to Daesh but deadlocked after two days of deliberations on whether he played a role in the Kabul airport suicide bombing.
According to prosecutors, Sharifullah scouted out the route to the airport where the suicide bomber later detonated his device among packed crowds trying to flee days after the Taliban seized control of Kabul.
The United States withdrew its last troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, ending a chaotic evacuation of tens of thousands of Afghans who had rushed to Kabul’s airport in the hopes of boarding a flight out of the country.
Sharifullah was extradited to the United States in March 2025 and put on trial in Alexandria on the outskirts of the US capital.
He faces up to 20 years in prison.
According to the US authorities, Sharifullah was involved in a number of Daesh-Khorasan attacks between 2016 and his arrest by Pakistani authorities in 2025.
They included a June 2016 suicide bombing that targeted Nepali security guards protecting the Canadian embassy in Kabul.
Sharifullah was accused of conducting surveillance and transporting the suicide bomber to the attack site.
He was also accused of giving weapons instructions to Daesh-Khorasan gunmen who attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow in March 2024.
Politics
Mojtaba Khamenei says new management of Strait of Hormuz ‘will bring calm’

- Khamenei says US faces disgraceful defeat in its plan.
- Iran to secure Gulf, eliminate “enemy’s abuses”: supreme leader.
- Iranian rial has fallen to historic lows against dollar.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a published written message on Thursday that a new chapter for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz has been taking shape since the Iran war with the United States and Israel broke out on February 28.
Iran’s Supreme Leader said that Tehran would secure the Gulf region and eliminate what he described as “the enemy’s abuses of the waterway.”
The Supreme Leader added that new management of the Strait of Hormuz would bring calm, progress and economic benefits to all Gulf nations.
“Today, two months after the largest military deployment and aggression by the world’s bullies in the region, and the United States’ disgraceful defeat in its plans, a new chapter is unfolding for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, hailing Iran’s control over shipping in the strait.
Khamenei was wounded in the initial US-Israeli strikes that assassinated his father Ali Khamenei, and has not been seen in public since being named his successor as supreme leader last month.
The United States imposed a blockade on Iran’s ports two weeks ago, while the Islamic republic has maintained its stranglehold over the strategic Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Middle East war in February.
Now, a State Department official told AFP, Washington is seeking to set up an international coalition comprising allied states and shipping firms to coordinate safe passage through Hormuz — while maintaining its own blockade of ships serving Iran.
“Any attempt to impose a maritime blockade or restrictions is contrary to international law… and is doomed to fail,” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said, in a statement that warned the blockade that began on April 13 would be “a disruption to lasting stability in the Persian Gulf”.
And Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as an influential figure, said control of Hormuz would allow Tehran to “provide itself and its neighbours with the precious blessing of a future free from American presence and interference”.
‘Choking’
Trump is expected to receive a briefing on Thursday on new plans for potential military action in Iran from Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, two sources with knowledge of US planning told news site Axios.
This week Trump has reportedly told oil executives and national security officials to prepare for a long US blockade designed to force Tehran to surrender its nuclear programme.
US Central Command said on Wednesday in a social media post that it had reached a “significant milestone after successfully redirecting the 42nd commercial vessel attempting to violate the blockade”.
It said there are “41 tankers with 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime can’t sell”, estimating the value at more than $6 billion.
Oil prices struck a four-year high on Thursday. International benchmark Brent crude soared more than 7% to $126 a barrel, but then eased in midday trading in London.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said the closure of Hormuz was “strangling the global economy” and International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told a meeting at his Paris headquarters: “The world is facing the biggest energy crisis in history.”
The European Central Bank also warned that the longer the war and high energy prices continue, “the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.”
Trump faces domestic political pressure to end the war, which is unpopular even with much of his base, has increased costs for American consumers and has unnerved US allies.
Iran’s economy is also suffering and the rial has fallen to historic lows against the dollar.
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