Tech
We’ve Slept on Nearly 30 Pillows. Here Are the Best Ones
Compare the Top 5 Pillows
Honorable Mentions
There are far too many pillows on the market. We’ve listed our favorites above, but even that doesn’t cover the wide array of serviceable designs out there for a good night’s sleep. If, somehow, all of our picks above aren’t to your tastes, here are a few others we have tested and what we thought about them.
Avocado Down Pillow for $109: This down model does have feathers sourced from Responsible Down Standard (RDS)-certified farms, but it felt unimpressive and borderline flat to sleep on
Avocado Green Pillow for $119: Avocado’s fill is made from GOLS-certified organic latex and GOTS-certified organic kapok, and comes in both a standard shape and side-sleeper curved shape. It felt much denser than others we tried, and my test panel and I preferred other latex pillows over this one.
Bedgear Storm Pillow for $200: This model from Bedgear is similar to the Bedgear Flow above but without the curve for side sleepers. If you sleep on your back 100 percent of the time, this might be a better fit, but I prefer the versatility of having one curved side and one straight side. –Eric Ravenscraft
Brooklinen Down Alternative Pillow for $59: I liked this better than Brooklinen’s actual down pillow, since it had better spring and support. (I chose the firm option for testing.) I prefer the Buffy Cloud for a down alternative, but this is a solid runner-up.
Casper Hybrid Pillow for $129: This hybrid uses a mix of thick foam and a core of shredded foam for its marshmallow-like, dense-yet-soft feel. I liked sleeping on the Casper, especially the cooling Snow version ($149), and it did well in my panel tests, but both of my panelists who volunteered to long-term test it came back with disappointing results within a week. My petite side sleeper found it too firm, and my taller, broader long-term tester found that the Casper wasn’t bouncing back quite as much as it should be for the price after a week of sleeping on it. If you like a firm-ish design, though, you could be happy with this one. The Snow version is slightly cooling, but not super cooling; more of a good winter option for hot sleepers, as one of my panel testers said.
Eli & Elm Everyday Memory Foam Pillow for $110: Compared to the latex version below, the memory foam version feels lumpy. Most of my panelists disliked it, including myself, but my chaotic sleeper was a fan of its malleable shape for her haphazard sleeping patterns.
Eli & Elm Everyday Latex Pillow for $110: This shredded latex-filled pillow is nice and springy, and it’s a solid runner-up to the Coop and Purple. I found it comfortable to sleep on as a side sleeper, since it as a higher loft and nice support.
Eli & Elm Side Sleeper Pillow for $116: This pillow is almost shockingly firm out of the box. You can customize the amount of fill inside to give it the right amount of support for you, but if you’re the type of side sleeper who likes firm support, this might be the one for you. It even comes with a separate removable cover for easy washing. It’s smaller than the Scrumptious one, so don’t expect to do much cuddling on this one, but for one person it’s a great choice. —Eric Ravenscraft
GhostBed Memory Foam Pillow for $85: Former WIRED reviewer Medea Giordano has been using the memory foam GhostBed pillow since 2020—she slept on it while visiting with a friend and immediately bought one after returning home. It’s medium-firm and works for her side-, back-, and stomach-sleeping rotation. GhostBed’s claim of it being the “Coolest Pillow in the World” is exaggerated, but Medea sleeps hot, and she says the gel-infused foam does stay cool all night.
Marlow the Pillow for $49: This is another shredded memory foam model, though it was less lumpy and had better support than the Eli & Elm. It was a little smaller than the rest, but it also has a slight adjustment option, letting you unzip side panels to make it bigger or smaller. It was fine to sleep on; I found it a little firm for my liking, but my long-term tester says it’s been supportive and cleared up her neck pain. It’s a good option for the price too.
Nest Easy Breather Pillow for $119: This is a popular model, but I found it too dense and too lofty for me. It is adjustable, so you can easily make it less lofty, and it comes with a fill bag to store your extra fill. The fill is a mix of foam and polyester fiber. My panelist who liked the firmer Marlow also liked this pillow, while the rest of us preferred softer options.
No More Aches Neck Pillow for $50: There’s no shortage of novelty pillows, but as someone who experiences a lot of neck pain, I’m intrigued by this odd little design. It has a concave center for back, side, and stomach sleeping, plus an indented edge that perfectly fits your arm. Its awkward shape makes it less than ideal for anything other than laying your head on it, but it’s still a solid pick for neck pain. —Eric Ravenscraft
Parallel High Profile Pillow for $150: Former WIRED reviewer Eric Ravenscraft was a fan of the Parallel’s high profile for taller side sleepers. It’s a good option, but I think you’ll be just as happy with a Purple or Coop cutout if you need a high loft and side sleeper support.
Pillow Cube Side Cube ($70) and Ice Cube ($90): The Pillow Cube has a weird little rectangular design. It seems strange at first, but once you take the quiz and get a recommendation for what size you need, you’ll be matched with the perfect cube for you. I tested the Side Cube and the Ice Cube. They were supportive and a bit squishy, and I think they’d be a good option if you sleep exclusively on your side—with your arms stretched in front of you or near your chest. I usually sleep with my arm stretched under my pillow, so my head is resting on my shoulder (with a pillow in between), and I found the Cube was less supportive if I slept in my preferred position. And on the nights when I rolled onto my back, I woke up with neck pain. But if you only sleep in the ideal side sleeper formation, this model is much more supportive than others I’ve tried. Make sure you pick up a case! A normal case is too roomy and doesn’t fit the Cube well. —Louryn Strampe
Purple DreamLayer Pillow for $199: If you find you switch between being a side sleeper and back sleeper, the Purple DreamLayer pillow provides an excellent middle ground. Rather than using adjustable fill to customize its height, this model comes with two foam inserts so you can get exactly the level of support you need. —Eric Ravenscraft
Purple GridCloud Pillow for $149: This pillow is a softer, squishier design with the grid layer we love from the Purple Freeform and Harmony, but it has only one side with the grid instead of two. It’s described as having a down-alternative core, and it does feel much softer, like a down alternative. I preferred the support of Purple’s other models, but if you want something softer with better support than just a down or down alternative filling, this is a great option.
Saatva Graphite Memory Foam Pillow for $165: This model is slightly cooling, and has a fluffier feel compared to more sinkage-style memory foam.
Saatva Down Alternative Pillow for $115: I like this down alternative, but not more than the much cheaper Buffy. There are two loft height options which is nice if you want something specific.
Sleep Number True Temp Adapt Ultimate Pillow for $150: I tested the Ultimate shape since it’s a slight crescent-like style that’s ideal for side sleepers like myself. I like this as a side sleeper option, and it’s nicely cooling as well. It’s a little smaller than the Coop, but still big enough for the average-sized person.
Slumber Cloud UltraCool Pillow for $79: This pillow is super chilly and super soft, similar to a down or down alternative model. If you’re looking for something extra cool and like the light, malleable support of a down pillow, this is a good choice.
Snuggle-Pedic Adjustable Cooling Pillow for $57: This was our favorite pillow under $100, but it’s out of stock everywhere right now. If you can find it available, it’s a great option filled with shredded memory foam that you can adjust to get your perfect height.
Tempur-Pedic Tempur-Adapt ProAdjust Pillow for $125: This adjustable-fill model from Tempur-Pedic has a compartment where you can add or remove foam filling to get the perfect amount of support for you. This is an increasingly common feature, but what sets it apart is Tempur-Pedic’s trademark cooling materials. The company makes some of the best cooling materials on the market, and this one managed to stay cooler than most I tried. —Eric Ravenscraft
Tempur Pedic Tempur Adapt ProHi for $175: Our previous memory foam pick did fine in my panel tests, but we all preferred shredded memory foam over a solid sheet. Someone did volunteer to long-term test this as a knee support while they slept, though.
Tempur-Breeze ProHi Pillow for $229: is a wider, more spacious alternative to the Tempur-Adapt ProHi. It has a similarly high loft, and the foam is firmer and more resistant to pressure than the Adapt. It’s a better fit if you prefer a firmer option, or if you want space to share it with your cuddling partner. —Eric Ravenscraft
Understanding Pillow Sizes
There are a couple different pillow sizes you might find when shopping. Most of the time pillows come in a standard size and a king size, and you should buy a standard size unless you have a king-size bed. But there are a few more size options.
All bed pillows are usually 20 inches wide, but the length can vary. (That’s why your pillowcases might seem too long—they’re prepared for larger sizes!) If you’re curious about more sizes or found a model that has more options to choose from than you know what to do with, here are the usual sizes you can find and what measurements they should have:
- Standard Size: 20 inches by 26 inches
- Super Standard Size: 20 inches by 28 inches
- Queen: 20 inches by 30 inches
- King: 20 inches by 36 inches
- Body: 20 inches by 54 inches
You’ll want to double-check listings to see what size you’re really working with if size is an issue for you. Buffy, for example, lists a standard size for its pillows, but they’re 28 inches long, making those pillows a super standard size. You won’t want to order king-size pillows without a king-sized bed, especially since you’ll need king-size pillowcases with your sheets. Body pillows are the longest of all, and we have a separate guide to those.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Kind of Pillow Do You Need?
You might think a pillow is a pillow. It just has to be soft and fit under your head, right? Your head, neck, and back disagree. Getting a good night’s sleep can depend heavily on your pillow, so when choosing one, here are a few key questions to ask.
What kind of sleeper are you? Do you sleep on your back, side, or stomach? Do you stay relatively still, or do you toss and turn a lot? Do you usually have one pillow under your head, or do you cocoon yourself into a pillow chrysalis? This is probably the most important thing to keep in mind when deciding what type works best for you, and we’ve noted our picks below based on sleeping style.
What is the pillow made of? Pillows can be filled with all types of materials, from feathers to foam. Down and synthetic down are fluffy clusters of fiber that can feel soft and comfortable, whereas memory foam is designed to compress with the weight of your head but still return to its previous shape. Organic latex can be heavy and spongey, holding a side-sleeper’s head in place. There are also hybrid pillows that use multiple layers of different materials for a more structured feel.
How are the materials sourced? Since some materials like down feathers come from animals, you might want to be aware of how manufacturers get their fill (literally). Down filling typically comes from the belly feathers of either ducks or geese. In order to ensure that down feathers are ethically sourced—such as by avoiding cruel practices like live plucking—programs like the Responsible Down Standard set criteria that manufacturers must adhere to. Another option is to look for synthetic down alternatives, which use cotton, rayon, or polyester as a synthetic replacement. The broader Material Matters Standard is a recently overhauled system for examining the environmental impact and sustainability of bedding manufacturers.
How firm is it? However you sleep, you’ll want a pillow that keeps your spine straight and your head aligned with your back. That means you want something firm enough to support your head yet soft enough that it doesn’t dig into your ear or face.
How lofty is it? “Loft” is a term often used to describe how high off the bed the pillow keeps your head. If it’s too tall, for example, you might end up with your neck tilted upward, straining it throughout the night. Most models typically fall into one of three categories: Low loft, which is relatively short and ideal for back sleepers; high loft, which is better for side sleepers (since your head will be further off the bed than when you’re on your back); and medium loft, which is somewhere in the middle and best if you’re a combination sleeper who doesn’t stick to one particular sleep style.
What is the warranty and return policy? You might not think the pillow you sleep (and sweat and drool) on would have a robust warranty, but many manufacturers offer generous policies. For example, Purple offers a one-year warranty and even a 100-night trial period. Casper has a similar warranty and a 30-day trial. If you’re unsure whether your new pillow is right for you, check out the company’s policies to see what leeway you have to try before you commit—and make sure you’re protected if something goes wrong.
What’s the Best Pillow Fill for You?
A variety of filling materials are used, and the type of fill is a big part of how pillows are categorized. You’ve heard of down pillows, for example, which means it’s full of down undercoating or feathers, and hearing the words “memory foam” usually invokes the sinking sensation that good memory foam can give. Here’s a quick explainer of the main types of fill you’ll find and how they differ.
Down: Down pillows, as I mentioned above, are filled with either down clusters (an undercoating on ducks) or down feathers, or a mix of both. It’s a fill that’s been around for ages, and it feels similar to a comforter in the sense that it’s soft and squishy, and very malleable to shape in any way you prefer. (But it also doesn’t retain its shape well.) Since these are filled with down clusters or feathers, you’ll want to check for certifications, like the Responsible Down Standard (RDS), that confirm if the down was ethically sourced.
Down alternative: These pillows aren’t a set type, but use other materials to replicate the down experience. Buffy, for example, uses recycled plastic to create their fill, while Saatva uses a combination of memory foam and latex foam. You’ll have to take a look to see what makes up any down alternative design, since it isn’t consistent. But what is consistent is the different feel. In my tests, I’ve found down alternative models are usually more supportive and do a better job holding their shape than a classic down.
Memory foam: Memory foam is popular since it can “remember” its original shape, letting it return to its previous form once your head is off the pillow. Memory foam does have a sinking sensation to it, which you might like or dislike. You’ll also want to check if the memory foam is a solid sheet or shredded; I’ve found shredded and cut memory foam to have more bounce and support and less sinkage than a memory foam sheet.
Latex foam: Latex foam is made from rubber, giving it a much bouncier, supportive feel than other foam options. Latex foam is becoming a popular option thanks to that nice support, and it is usually found with a shredded type of fill that gives plenty of airflow.
Hybrid: Hybrid is another category gaining in popularity. It can be a mix of any of the above fills, but I often find it’s a sheet of foam combined with either shredded foam or some other kind of softer filling. Casper, for example, uses both sheets of memory foam and then has a core of shredded foam at the center to give it its marshmallow-like feel.
Cotton, kapok, and wool: These fills are all natural fibers that take less processing than foam, and could be used in a blend with other materials above. Kapok and cotton are supposed to be on the fluffy end, while wool is great for temperature regulation. But none are as popular as foam or down options, though you might see these as ingredients in organic or hybrid options.
Are Standard and Queen the Same Pillow Size?
No, a standard size is a little smaller at only 26 inches wide, while a queen size should be 30 inches wide. You might want to check the measurements in case it’s mislabeled to be the same thing, but if you have the choice between the two, I prefer a few extra inches with the queen size.
Why Should You Spend So Much on a Pillow?
You might be surprised by some of the price tags on these pillows. I remember spending bottom dollar on my pillows for years. But those bottom-dollar pillows needed to be frequently replaced and didn’t provide the long-term support (or even all-night support) my neck needed.
Higher-quality pillows cost more but will use better materials, last longer, and come with trial periods and warranties so that you can test out the pillow of your choice and get a guarantee it’ll last. Plus, while most of these aren’t cheap, it’s still an affordable investment when you break down how many hours you’ll be lying on them.
How Should You Care for Your Pillow?
The best way to wash your pillow is going to depend on the pillow you have. You can choose to hand wash, spot clean, or machine wash pillows, though you’ll want to check the label and make sure it’s safe to machine wash it. If it’s not, spot or hand cleaning is your best option.
The easiest pillows to clean are ones that come with removable covers, because you can remove said cover and wash it with other sheets and bedding. Not all pillow fill should be washed, so that’s important to check before throwing an entire pillow into your washing machine. Our top five picks all have removable covers for easy washing, though for some (like the Honeydew Scrumptious) you’ll have to manually remove the filling and store it in a bag, while others like the Purple have a separated cover and fill section.
How Does WIRED Choose Pillows to Review?
We research all pillows we test to make sure we test a variety of styles, fills, and shapes to find which are the most supportive over a night’s sleep. We test both expensive and affordably priced models to see how the quality stacks up, and usually look to test new designs and options to see what’s coming next (and every other category we test for). We also check out reviews and customer feedback when available to see if it’s worth testing to compare against pillows we know we already like.
How Does WIRED Test Pillows?
Every pillow in this guide is slept on for a minimum of three nights, with our top picks getting at least a week if not closer to a month of sleep testing from either myself, other staffers, or long-term testers. I also hosted a testing panel in March 2025 with six participants and 22 different models. The panelists all had different sleep styles ranging from classic side and back sleepers to chaotic sleepers who end up underneath their pillows every night, and the panel judged which options they found most comfortable and would be most likely to buy for their sleep needs.
How Does WIRED Acquire Pillows? What Happens to the Review Units After Testing?
Most of our pillows are provided by the company for us to review, sometimes by that company reaching out to offer its newest model for us to consider, or more frequently, us reaching out and asking to test it after researching that specific style or fill type. We also purchase some pillows for ourselves and will write about them.
After we test pillows, they’re either placed with a long-term tester if the model is a pick, or they’re donated.
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Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow but vital oil trade route in the Middle East—has almost ground to a halt since the start of the United States and Israel’s war against Iran. Tankers in the region have faced military strikes and a spike in GPS jamming attacks, a new analysis says.
Since the first US-Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, more than 1,100 ships operating across the Gulf region have had their GPS or automatic identification system (AIS) communications technology disrupted, says Ami Daniel, the CEO of maritime intelligence firm Windward. Ships have been made to appear as if they were inland on maps, including at a nuclear power plant, the firm says.
The analysis comes as maritime officials have warned of a “critical” risk to ships operating in the region and as the initial conflict has quickly expanded to involve countries across the Middle East. At least three tankers in the region have been damaged in the conflict.
“We’re seeing a lot of GPS jamming,” Daniel says of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas. The levels of electronic interference are “way above the baseline” of usual interference, he says. “It’s becoming very dangerous to go in and out.”
Over the last few years, attacks against GPS and navigation systems have been on the rise—largely driven by the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. They can impact people’s phones or devices, but also disrupt the safety and navigation systems in planes and ships. The electronic interference largely comes in two forms: jamming and spoofing. During jamming attacks, satellite signals are overwhelmed so that positioning data isn’t available. Whereas spoofing can create false signals that make an object appear incorrectly on a map—for instance, making ships appear as if they are inland at airports.
Inaccurate location data can lead to ships running off course, potentially increasing the chances of them crashing into other tankers, running aground, or causing damaging oil spills. In warzones, electronic interference is often used to try and disrupt the navigation systems of drones or missiles, which can rely on location data to find and hit their targets.
Analysis of shipping data by Windward found that there has been an “escalating” level of electronic interference across Iranian, United Arab Emirates, Qatari, and Omani waters since the initial strikes on February 28. Daniel says that the majority of the activity the company has identified so far has been jamming rather than spoofing. The company’s analysis says it has identified around 21 “new clusters” where ships have had their AIS data jammed in recent days.
“Ships were falsely positioned at airports, a nuclear power plant, and on Iranian land, creating navigation and compliance risks,” a report from the firm says. “AIS signals have also been diverted to the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant and nearby waters, while hundreds of other vessels are creating circle-like patterns off UAE, Qatari, and Omani waters.”
GPS and AIS interference within the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding area is not new. In June 2025, as Israel and Iran exchanged missile fire, significant jamming in the region was reported.
While almost all commercial air travel has been grounded around the Middle East, there have been signs of electronic interference on aircraft flying ahead of and around the strikes. “There are at least six new spoofing signatures in the Middle East,” says Jeremy Bennington, vice president of positioning, navigation, and timing strategy and innovation at technology firm Spirent Communications. “Hundreds of flights have been impacted. However, that decreased significantly over the weekend as flights have been canceled.”
In the wake of a major series of new US and Israel-led attacks on Iran and subsequent retaliatory strikes on Gulf states including Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has reassured British organisations that there is likely no significant change in the direct cyber threat posed by Iranian actors.
But that despite the attacks, Iranian state threat actors likely retain some ability to conduct cyber attacks, and more widely, there is a risk of collateral impacts – such as distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks – originating from hacktivist groups sympathetic to Iran.
And, as the spreading conflict threatens to draw in the UK, the GCHQ-backed cyber agency said it this assessment was subject to change at short notice, and there was almost certainly a heightened risk of indirect cyber threat for any UK organisations with a presence in the Middle East.
“In light of rapidly evolving events in the Middle East, it is critical that all UK organisations remain alert to the potential risk of cyber compromise, particularly those with assets or supply chains that are in areas of regional tensions,” said NCSC director for national resilience, Jonathon Ellison.
“Today, the National Cyber Security Centre has published an alert outlining the current cyber threat to the UK and the practical steps organisations should take in response.
“This includes engaging with our guidance to reduce the likelihood of falling victim to an attack where the cyber risk is heightened, and how critical national infrastructure organisations can prepare for and respond to severe cyber threats.
“Organisations are strongly encouraged to act now, following the recommended actions to prioritise and strengthen their cyber security posture,” said Ellison.
Global conflict
Although no European states have taken part in the initial strikes, Dennis Calderone, principal and chief technology officer (CTO) at Suzu Labs, said that European organisations still needed to pay attention.
“Iran’s cyber operations don’t stop at US borders, and the proxy groups operating on Iran’s behalf are even less predictable in their targeting,” said Calderone. “When the motivation is retaliation and the conventional military is gone, cyber operators cast a wide net.
“Since it appears that conventional military options are looking increasingly to be off the table, cyber is what Iran has left,” he added.
“And even with their own internet down, pre-positioned implants and operators based outside Iran can still execute. If you’re in energy, water, financial services, or defense, assume you’re a target. Start hunting for anomalous access in your environment now. Don’t wait for something to break.”
James Turgal, vice president of global cyber risk and board relations at Optiv, said that over the next 30 days or so, there will likely be a surge of cyber activity linked to Iran, including website defacements, DDoS attacks, doxxing and leaks, and disruptive intrusions designed to create symbolic impact and public fear. This will likely include influence operations.
Threat actors will likely opportunistically exploit vulnerabilities in unpatched, internet-facing systems, and take advantage of other cyber weaknesses, such as exposed VPNs, and badly-secured operational technology (OT) or industrial control systems (ICS).
Within 72 hours, at-risk organisations should move to lock down internet-facing exposures, verify they are patched and up-to-date, have removed or limited unnecessary remote admin surfaces, rotated any exposed credentials, and validated multifactor authentication on any remote devices, said Turgal. CNI operators should also review their OT and ICS segmentation and monitoring.
More widely, security leaders should take steps to protect user identities against potential intrusion, and ensure their infrastructure is hardened against DDoS attacks.
Blended threat
Halcyon’s Cynthia Kaiser – who was previously deputy assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division, said she was already seeing increased activity in the Middle East, and calls to action from hacktivists, DDoS botnet operators, and ransomware gangs.
“Iran has a long track record of using cyber operations to retaliate against perceived political slights…. Tehran’s cyber playbook has been aggressive and evolving,” she said.
“Increasingly, ransomware is incorporated into these escalating operations. Last year, an Iranian national pleaded guilty to ransomware attacks that crippled Baltimore and other US municipalities, causing tens of millions in damages. Since at least 2017, Iranian operators have targeted US critical infrastructure … with ransomware campaigns that blur the line between criminal extortion and state-sponsored sabotage.”
In practice, Kaiser explained, Iranian cyber ops blend state sponsorship, personal profiteering, and outright criminal behaviour. For example, she said, financially-motivated hackers may attempt to monetise access gained through government-funded campaigns.
Like Moscow, she added, Tehran turns a blind – or at least indifferent – eye to criminal cyber ops against shared enemies such as the US, Israel and their regional allies.
“Having access to cyber criminals gives the government options. As Iran considers its response to US and Israeli military actions, it is likely to activate any of these cyber actors if it believes their operations can deliver a meaningful retaliatory impact,” said Kaiser.
Oil prices surged on Monday following the United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran this weekend, as some analysts predict that it could soon reach over $100 a barrel. Amid escalating attacks on oil and gas infrastructure in the region and stopped traffic in a crucial shipping route, experts tell WIRED that how the White House directs the conflict over the coming week—as well as Iran’s and other oil producers’ responses—will be key in determining just how high prices eventually climb.
The price of Brent crude jumped to almost $80 a barrel—a nearly 13 percent increase over Friday’s prices—when markets opened Sunday evening. The market has been pricing in the risk of the US’s aggressive stance toward Iran for months, says Tyson Slocum, the director of the energy program at the progressive think tank Public Citizen, insulating prices from an even more severe jump. But the disorganized US follow-through to the initial attack—which killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader—is introducing much more uncertainty.
“For all of Trump saying, ‘Hey, you know, we took out Khamenei, we knew exactly where he was,’—apparently we didn’t do the same for Iran’s attack capabilities,” Slocum says. “It seems like our plan was to take out Khamenei and then hope for the best.”
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes in the world. One out of every five barrels of oil travels through the strait. Major members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the world’s dominant oil and gas cartel, rely almost entirely on the strait to get their product out of the region.
“As long as I have been in the oil market, Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been kind of the ultimate risk scenario for prices,” says Canadian oil market researcher Rory Johnston. Usually, he says, OPEC would respond to an international crisis that involves oil by increasing production. “But if OPEC’s emergency production is on the other side of the problem area, it doesn’t do as much good.” Johnston compares the region to a garden hose, where a kink in one section can decrease output.
Throughout the weekend, while Iranian officials sent mixed messages on whether the strait is formally closed, traffic through the strait dropped to near zero. Insurance companies have jacked up policies on ships traveling through the strait, while some ships have been hit by drone strikes. What seems to be happening, Johnston says, is more of a “voluntary closure” than an official one.
There are worse scenarios for oil prices that could unfold in the coming days than just the closure of the strait. In September of 2019, drones hit major oil production facilities east of the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh. While the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen publicly claimed responsibility for the attack, US officials blamed Iran. The attack temporarily shot oil prices up 15 percent.
On Monday, Saudi officials said that they had closed a major domestic refinery following drone strikes, while a few other oil and gas fields across the region were also shut down. Qatar LNG, the country’s state-run liquefied natural gas producer, said Monday it was shutting down production due to drone strikes, sending gas prices in Europe spiking. Johnston says that continued, serious strikes like these could have a massive impact on prices.
“Going back to the garden hose thing … [that would be] more like taking a gun and blasting off the faucet,” Johnston says.
Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, DC, agrees. “The more desperate Iran becomes, the greater likelihood for it to use energy as leverage to advance its interests,” he says. “If tankers abandon the Gulf trade in large numbers, and certainly if major oil infrastructure is damaged, we’re likely to see triple-digit crude prices again.”
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