Politics
With Iran war exit elusive, Trump aides vie to affect outcome
A complex tug-of-war inside the White House is driving US President Donald Trump’s shifting public statements on the course of the Iran war, as aides debate when and how to declare victory even as the conflict spreads across the Middle East.
Some officials and advisers are warning Trump that surging gasoline prices could exact a political cost from the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, while some hawks are pressing the president to maintain the offensive against the Islamic Republic, according to interviews with a Trump adviser and others close to the deliberations.
Their observations to Reuters offer a previously unreported glimpse inside White House decision-making as it adjusts its approach to the biggest US military operation since the 2003 Iraq war.
Shifting messages, various internal viewpoints
The behind-the-scenes manoeuvring underscores the high stakes Trump, who returned to office last year promising to avoid “stupid” military interventions, faces nearly two weeks after plunging the nation into a war that has rattled global financial markets and disrupted the international oil trade.
The jockeying for Trump’s ear is a feature of his presidency, but this time the consequences are a matter of war and peace in one of the world’s most volatile and economically critical regions.
Shifting from the sweeping goals he framed in launching the war on February 28, Trump in recent days has emphasised that he views the conflict as a limited campaign whose objectives have mostly been met.
But the message remains unclear to many, including the energy markets, which have lurched in both directions in response to Trump’s statements.
He told a campaign-style rally in Kentucky on Wednesday that “we won” the war, then abruptly pivoted: “We don’t want to leave early, do we? We’ve got to finish the job.”
Economic advisers and officials, including from the Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, have warned Trump that an oil shock and rising gasoline prices could quickly erode domestic support for the war, said the adviser and two others close to the deliberations, speaking on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions.
Political advisers, including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief James Blair, are making similar arguments, focusing on the political fallout from higher gas prices and urging Trump to define victory narrowly and signal the operation is limited and nearly finished, the sources said.
Pushing in the other direction are hawkish voices urging Trump to sustain military pressure on Iran, including Republican lawmakers such as US Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton, and media commentators such as Mark Levin, according to people familiar with the matter.
They argue the US must prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and respond forcefully to attacks on American troops and shipping.
A third force comes from Trump’s populist base and figures such as strategist Steve Bannon and right-wing television personality Tucker Carlson, who have been pressing him and his top aides to avoid getting dragged into another prolonged Middle East conflict.
“He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited,” the Trump adviser said.
Asked for comment, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement: “This story is based on gossip and speculation from anonymous sources who aren’t even in the room for any discussions with President Trump.
“The President is known for being a good listener and seeking the opinions of many people, but ultimately everyone knows he’s the final decision maker and his own best messenger,” she said. “The President’s entire team is focused on ensuring the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved.”
Other people named for their roles in the deliberations did not immediately respond to Reuters’ questions.
Looking for an exit
In taking America to war, Trump offered little explanation, and the administration’s stated war aims have ranged from thwarting an imminent attack by Iran to crippling its nuclear programme to replacing its government.
As he seeks an exit from an unpopular conflict, Trump is trying to juggle competing narratives that some critics say have complicated an already difficult situation, with Iran defiant despite the devastating US-Israeli air assault.
Top political aides and economic advisers, whose warnings before the war of the potential economic shock were largely ignored, appear to have played a major role in pushing Trump’s efforts this week to reassure skittish markets and contain rising oil and gas prices.
His public shift to downplaying the war’s impact, describing it as a “short-term excursion,” and his insistence that gas price hikes would be short-lived appeared aimed at calming fears of an open-ended conflict.
Some top aides have advised him to work toward a conclusion to the conflict that he can call a triumph, at least militarily, the sources said, even if much of the Iranian leadership survives, along with remnants of a nuclear program that the campaign was meant to target.
Wave after wave of US and Israeli air strikes have killed a number of top Iranian leaders among some 2,000 people overall — some as far away as Lebanon – devastated its ballistic missile arsenal, sunk much of its navy and degraded its ability to support armed proxies around the Middle East.
But the military achievements have been seriously undercut by Iran’s stepped-up attacks on oil tankers and transport facilities in the Gulf, driving up oil prices.
Trump has said he will decide when to end the campaign. He and his aides say they are far ahead of the four- to six-week timeframe Trump initially announced.
The shifting reasons for launching the conflict, which has spilt over into more than half a dozen other countries, have only made it more difficult to predict what comes next.
For their part, Iran’s rulers will claim victory, analysts say, for simply surviving the US-Israeli onslaught, especially after demonstrating their ability to fight back and inflict damage on Israel, the US and its allies.
Venezuela miscalculation
Critical to the war’s final trajectory will be the Strait of Hormuz. A fifth of the world’s oil shipments, which normally traverse the narrow waterway, have come to a near-standstill.
Iran, in recent days, has struck tankers in Iraqi waters and other ships near the strait, and the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to keep it shut.
If Iran’s stranglehold on the waterway pushes US gas prices high enough, that could increase political pressure on Trump to end the military campaign to help his Republican Party, which is defending narrow majorities in Congress in November’s midterm elections.
Trump has recently refrained from pushing the idea that the war seeks to topple the government in Tehran. US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is not at risk of collapse anytime soon, Reuters reported on Wednesday.
At least some of the confusion over the war’s trajectory appears rooted in the quick US military success in Venezuela.
Since the start of the war, some aides have struggled to convince Trump that the Iran campaign was unlikely to unfold in the same way as the January 3 Venezuela raid that captured President Nicolas Maduro, according to another source familiar with the administration’s thinking.
That operation opened the way for Trump to coerce former Maduro loyalists into giving him considerable sway over the country’s vast oil reserves – without requiring extended US military action.
Iran, by contrast, has proved a much tougher, better-armed foe with an entrenched clerical and security establishment.
Experts have rejected claims by Trump aides that Iran had been within weeks of being able to produce a nuclear weapon, despite the president’s insistence in June that US-Israeli bombing had “obliterated” its nuclear program.
Most of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium is believed to have been buried by the June strikes, meaning the material potentially could be retrieved and purified to bomb grade. Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons.
If the war drags on, American casualties mount and the economic costs multiply, some analysts say it could erode backing from Trump’s political base. But despite criticism from some supporters opposed to military interventions, members of his “Make America Great Again” movement have so far largely stayed with him on Iran.
“The MAGA base is going to give the president wiggle room,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.
Some 287 candidates will be considered for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, the secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee said on Thursday, with US President Donald Trump likely to be among the nominees.
Of this year’s nominations, 208 are individuals and 79 are organisations, said Kristian Berg Harpviken, adding that there were many new nominees compared to last year.
“Since I am new in the job, one of the things that has to some extent surprised me is how much renewal there is from year to year on the list,” Harpviken said in an interview. He has held the position since January 2025.
Despite the number of conflicts rising worldwide and international cooperation under pressure, the award remains relevant, he added.
“The Peace Prize is even more important in a period like the one we’re living in,” he said. “There is as much good work, if not more, than ever.”
Trump likely nominated, but not confirmed
The leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have said they nominated Trump for this year’s prize. Their nominations, if made, would have been done in spring and summer 2025, and they are therefore valid given the deadline was January 31.
There is no way of verifying they have done as they have said as nominations remain secret for 50 years and Harpviken declined to say on Thursday whether Trump had been nominated.
A nomination is not an endorsement by the award body.
In addition to committee members, thousands of people worldwide can propose names: members of governments and parliaments; current heads of state; university professors of history, social sciences, law and philosophy; and former Nobel Peace Prize laureates, among others.
Many names appear on betting sites giving odds on this year’s possible laureates, from Russia’s Yulia Navalnaya, the wife of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, to Pope Leo and Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a volunteer aid group, among others.
Concern for health of jailed Iranian laureate
Harpviken said the committee was deeply concerned about the health of the 2023 Peace Prize laureate, Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi, which is worsening after she suffered a heart attack in prison.
Her supporters said on Wednesday her life was in imminent danger.
“Her sister was able to visit her in prison yesterday and the reports coming out after that are actually quite alarming as to her health condition,” said Harpviken.
“We see there is a lot of international pressure now. So we hope that the Iranian authorities do pay attention to that and release her so that she can have proper medical treatment.”
Who else could be nominated?
Among possible nominees for this year’s prize are Lisa Murkowski, the US senator for Alaska, and Aaja Chemnitz, a member of the Danish parliament elected from Greenland, according to the Norwegian lawmaker who nominated them both.
“Together they have worked relentlessly to build trust and to secure a peaceful development of the Arctic region over many years,” said the lawmaker, Lars Haltbrekken.
Greenland has been in particular focus this year due to Trump’s relentless push to acquire the island from Nato ally Denmark.
This year’s Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 9, while the ceremony will take place on December 10.
A US federal jury convicted an Afghan man on Wednesday of providing support to the Daesh in Afghanistan but failed to agree on whether he was involved in the deadly 2021 suicide bombing at Kabul airport.
Mohammad Sharifullah, a member of the Daesh-Khorasan, was convicted in Virginia of conspiracy to provide material support to a terrorist organisation.
President Donald Trump, in an address to Congress last year, had described Sharifullah as the “top terrorist responsible” for the Kabul airport attack that killed at least 170 Afghans and 13 American troops.
The jury found Sharifullah guilty of providing support to Daesh but deadlocked after two days of deliberations on whether he played a role in the Kabul airport suicide bombing.
According to prosecutors, Sharifullah scouted out the route to the airport where the suicide bomber later detonated his device among packed crowds trying to flee days after the Taliban seized control of Kabul.
The United States withdrew its last troops from Afghanistan in August 2021, ending a chaotic evacuation of tens of thousands of Afghans who had rushed to Kabul’s airport in the hopes of boarding a flight out of the country.
Sharifullah was extradited to the United States in March 2025 and put on trial in Alexandria on the outskirts of the US capital.
He faces up to 20 years in prison.
According to the US authorities, Sharifullah was involved in a number of Daesh-Khorasan attacks between 2016 and his arrest by Pakistani authorities in 2025.
They included a June 2016 suicide bombing that targeted Nepali security guards protecting the Canadian embassy in Kabul.
Sharifullah was accused of conducting surveillance and transporting the suicide bomber to the attack site.
He was also accused of giving weapons instructions to Daesh-Khorasan gunmen who attacked the Crocus City Hall near Moscow in March 2024.
- Khamenei says US faces disgraceful defeat in its plan.
- Iran to secure Gulf, eliminate “enemy’s abuses”: supreme leader.
- Iranian rial has fallen to historic lows against dollar.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a published written message on Thursday that a new chapter for the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz has been taking shape since the Iran war with the United States and Israel broke out on February 28.
Iran’s Supreme Leader said that Tehran would secure the Gulf region and eliminate what he described as “the enemy’s abuses of the waterway.”
The Supreme Leader added that new management of the Strait of Hormuz would bring calm, progress and economic benefits to all Gulf nations.
“Today, two months after the largest military deployment and aggression by the world’s bullies in the region, and the United States’ disgraceful defeat in its plans, a new chapter is unfolding for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, hailing Iran’s control over shipping in the strait.
Khamenei was wounded in the initial US-Israeli strikes that assassinated his father Ali Khamenei, and has not been seen in public since being named his successor as supreme leader last month.
The United States imposed a blockade on Iran’s ports two weeks ago, while the Islamic republic has maintained its stranglehold over the strategic Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Middle East war in February.
Now, a State Department official told AFP, Washington is seeking to set up an international coalition comprising allied states and shipping firms to coordinate safe passage through Hormuz — while maintaining its own blockade of ships serving Iran.
“Any attempt to impose a maritime blockade or restrictions is contrary to international law… and is doomed to fail,” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said, in a statement that warned the blockade that began on April 13 would be “a disruption to lasting stability in the Persian Gulf”.
And Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has emerged as an influential figure, said control of Hormuz would allow Tehran to “provide itself and its neighbours with the precious blessing of a future free from American presence and interference”.
‘Choking’
Trump is expected to receive a briefing on Thursday on new plans for potential military action in Iran from Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, two sources with knowledge of US planning told news site Axios.
This week Trump has reportedly told oil executives and national security officials to prepare for a long US blockade designed to force Tehran to surrender its nuclear programme.
US Central Command said on Wednesday in a social media post that it had reached a “significant milestone after successfully redirecting the 42nd commercial vessel attempting to violate the blockade”.
It said there are “41 tankers with 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime can’t sell”, estimating the value at more than $6 billion.
Oil prices struck a four-year high on Thursday. International benchmark Brent crude soared more than 7% to $126 a barrel, but then eased in midday trading in London.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said the closure of Hormuz was “strangling the global economy” and International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told a meeting at his Paris headquarters: “The world is facing the biggest energy crisis in history.”
The European Central Bank also warned that the longer the war and high energy prices continue, “the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy.”
Trump faces domestic political pressure to end the war, which is unpopular even with much of his base, has increased costs for American consumers and has unnerved US allies.
Iran’s economy is also suffering and the rial has fallen to historic lows against the dollar.
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