KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) maintained its powerful upward momentum during the outgoing week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index surging 6,733 points, or 4.15% week-on-week (WoW), to close at 168,990, marking its best nine-month performance since 2009.

The rally was largely driven by strong investor confidence, robust banking sector gains, and optimism about IMF meetings that could shape the near-term economic outlook. On a day-on-day basis, bulls marched ahead at the PSX on Monday, driving the benchmark index to the intra-day peak of 1,646 points. It settled at 163,847, up 1,590 points (0.98%).

On Tuesday, continuing its powerful bullish streak, the bourse closed the final session of the month at 165,494, notching up gains of 1,646 points, or 1%.

Wednesday was a topsy-turvy day as the KSE-100 swung between gains and losses before closing nearly flat at 165,640, posting a modest rise of 146 points, or 0.09%.

Following a brief pause, the PSX roared back into action on Thursday, extending its historic rally as the KSE-100 closed at 168,490, up 2,849 points (+1.72%), marking yet another record high. Continuing its record-setting run, the market touched the intra-day high of 169,989 (+1,499 points) on Friday before paring gains to close at 168,990, still higher by 500 points (0.30%).

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) noted in its weekly review that the KSE-100 index closed at 168,990, up 6,733 points (4.15% WoW). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2025 came in at 5.6% year-on-year (YoY) compared to 3% in August. In the latest T-bill auction, yields surged 19-40 basis points (bps), with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) raising Rs730.4 billion against the target of Rs750 billion, while participation remained robust at Rs1,494.7 billion, AHL said.

In September, total cement dispatches rose 7.05% to 4.25 million tons compared to 3.97 million tons in September 2024, taking 1QFY26 volumes to 12.16 million tons, higher by 16.3% against 10.46 million tons last year.

In Sept’25, fertiliser offtake showed mixed trends where urea sales rose 17% YoY to 429k tons, while DAP sales slumped 47% YoY to 71k tons, reflecting weak farm economics and lower imports.

In September, petroleum sales rose 8% YoY and 5% month-on-month (MoM) to 1.37 million tons, driven by strong motor spirit and high-speed diesel demand, while furnace oil volumes declined on reduced reliance for power generation. Cumulatively, in 1QFY26, sales increased 6% YoY to 3.89 million tons compared to 3.68 million tons last year.

Also, Pakistan recorded a trade deficit of $3.3 billion in September, with exports at $2.5 billion (down 11.7% YoY, up 3.6% MoM) and imports at $5.8 billion (up 14% YoY, 10.5% MoM), taking the 1QFY26 deficit to $9.4 billion, higher by 32.9% YoY.

Pakistan’s foreign currency reserves rose to $19.80 billion (+$3.4 million), including the SBP’s reserves of $14.40 billion (+$21 million). Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.03% WoW, closing at 281.37 against the US dollar, AHL added.

“The KSE-100 index extended its bullish momentum yet again as the PSX delivered its best nine-month performance since 2009, closing at 168,990 points, up 4% WoW, supported by improved investor sentiment,” Syed Danyal Hussain of JS Global mentioned in his report. Notably, the banking sector was the major contributor to the rally, adding 4,313 points to the index. Average volumes dropped 11% WoW to 1,484 million shares. The positive trend was reinforced as Pakistan successfully repaid a $500 million Eurobond, with another $1.3 billion repayment scheduled for April 2026, he said.

On the macro front, the CPI for September 2025 stood at 5.6% YoY (1QFY26 inflation averaged at 4.2%). Furthermore, fiscal concerns persisted as the Federal Board of Revenue missed its 1QFY26 tax target by Rs200 billion, collecting Rs2.88 trillion against the target of Rs3.08 trillion, Hussain added.