Business
Trump’s 100% tariffs on China: For India, the message is clear – No deal with US is ever final, says GTRI – The Times of India
India should be careful in its negotiations with the US and should focus on its self-reliance rather than depending on Washington, Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI) said in a report. In a report titled “Trump’s tariff offensive hits a rare earth wall,” the think tank analysed the impact of Trump’s recently imposed tariffs on China and how India should proceed.
The US President Donald Trump on Friday announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports, raising total US duties to around 130%, which will be in effect from November 1. The action is one of the most major escalations in US-China trade tensions since the 2018 tariff war. Washington’s move responds to China’s stringent restrictions on rare-earth exports, which are vital for the US defence, clean-energy, and technology sectors.‘The message is clear’: Lessons for IndiaThe report said that India should advance its negotiations with the US cautiously and on “equal terms,” warning that “no deal with the US is ever final.”It suggested ensuring reciprocity and safeguarding strategic autonomy. The GTRI report also said that instead of depending on “shifting US promises,” New Delhi should prioritise self-reliance in critical technologies and minerals, shielding its economy from future trade shocks. The country should also use its neutral stance to strengthen ties with both Western and BRICS nations.ImpactPrices of electric vehicles, wind turbines and semiconductor parts are expected to rise as China and the US get embroiled in a new series of trade tensions.The report further noted that if Washington seeks support from its allies, costs could rise further, as they can’t quickly match China’s dominance in rare-earth minerals.Analysing the impact, think tank GTRI said, “The impact will be felt quickly. Prices of EVs, wind turbines, and semiconductor parts are expected to rise, while the US will try to “friend-shore” its mineral supply chains to Australia, Vietnam, and Canada. China, meanwhile, is likely to redirect supplies toward its non-Western partners to strengthen alternative industrial networks.”Washington may feel the heat tooWashington is still heavily reliant on Beijing for its electronic, textile, footwear, white goods and solar panels, some areas where China could strike back.Once the new tariffs take effect, prices might surge making it difficult for the Trump administration to handle the inflation and production costs. Hence, the US President’s “tough-on-China” approach could backfire, potentially raising costs for American consumers and weakening his wider economic agenda.‘China appears better prepared’Given the importance of rare earths to US industries, Washington may soon have little choice but to negotiate a new deal with Beijing. “Unlike the US, which often acts before weighing economic consequences, China appears more deliberate and better prepared,” the GTRI said.
Business
Spike in petrol thefts after Iran war pushed up fuel prices
One petrol retailer says he is experiencing about five drive-offs a week at each forecourt, costing him thousands.
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Billions to be paid! US starts refund process for Trump tariffs: Can Indian exporters claim? – The Times of India
The US government has rolled out a system to facilitate refunds of over $166 billion from tariffs introduced by Donald Trump and later invalidated by the US Supreme Court. In February, the court struck down a broad set of reciprocal tariffs, delivering a significant setback to a central pillar of Trump’s economic agenda and paving the way for repayments.On Monday, US Customs and Border Protection announced that the first phase of its refund-processing platform is now operational, allowing importers and customs brokers to begin filing claims to recover the duties they had paid.The agency had earlier estimated in March that more than 330,000 importers may qualify for reimbursements on duties or deposits linked to over 53 million shipments. In its initial rollout, the platform covers about $127 billion in duty payments eligible for electronic refunds.
Tariff refunds What US Customs and Border Protection has said
The process to return reciprocal tariff payments starts on April 20 through a newly launched online platform, CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries), operated by US Customs and Border Protection.This move follows a February 20, 2026 judgment by the US Supreme Court, which ruled that tariffs introduced by Donald Trump were unlawful. The court found that these duties had been imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act without adequate legal backing.Also Read | Iran has closed Strait of Hormuz completely: What does this mean for India’s crude oil, LPG, LNG supplies?The tariffs impacted a wide range of exports from countries including India. To receive repayments, importers in the US are required to submit claims which include shipment details, applicable tariff classifications and proof of payment. Once approved, these refunds along with interest are expected to be processed within 60 to 90 days. Eligibility is limited to those who originally paid the tariffs, primarily US importers and businesses.The total amount to be refunded is estimated at around $166 billion, with nearly $12 billion tied to Indian goods.The tariff structure began at 10% on April 2, 2025, before escalating quickly. Duties on Indian goods increased to 25% by August 7, 2025, and further to 50% by August 28, remaining at that level until early February 2026. On February 6, 2026, rates were lowered to 18% following negotiations. However, the Supreme Court’s ruling later that month nullified the entire regime, effectively rendering the tariffs void and paving the way for refunds.
What it means for India
Exporters and end consumers are not permitted to file claims directly, although some companies, such as FedEx, may opt to pass on the refunded amounts at their discretion.According to Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), around 53% of India’s shipments to the US, which largely comprises textiles and apparel, were subject to higher tariffs. This makes them the largest contributors to the refund pool. Of the nearly $12 billion tied to Indian exports, textiles and apparel are estimated to account for around $4 billion, followed by engineering goods with a similar share and chemicals contributing about $2 billion, while other sectors make up the remainder.However, what is important to understand is that these refunds will not flow directly to Indian exporters. The payments are meant only for US importers who bore the tariff burden.Also Read | Explained: On way to 4th largest, how India slipped to 6th rank & what it means for 3rd largest economy dream“Payments go only to US importers, and exporters have no legal right to claim them. Indian exporters, therefore, have no direct legal route to claim refunds,” explains Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI.Hence, any potential recovery of these refunds will depend on commercial discussions. Exporters will need to actively engage with their US counterparts to negotiate a share of the refunded duties, particularly in cases where earlier pricing factored in tariff costs. GTRI explains that this can be done by reopening contracts, adding rebate-sharing clauses, asking for price revisions or credit notes, and using invoices and tariff data to show how costs were absorbed. “Exporters with stronger bargaining power, especially in textiles and engineering goods, may secure better terms in future orders,” the think tank says.Industry bodies such as the Apparel Export Promotion Council, Engineering Export Promotion Council of India and Chemexcil can also assist exporters with guidance on contract renegotiation and sector-specific approaches, it adds.
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John Ternus will take over running the technology giant as Cook steps up to become executive chairman.
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