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‘Indian Economy Continues To Gain Momentum Despite Uncertain Global Outlook’: FinMin Report

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‘Indian Economy Continues To Gain Momentum Despite Uncertain Global Outlook’: FinMin Report


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‘Demand conditions across rural and urban India strengthened with…GST reforms and the festive season,’ the finance ministry says in latest Monthly Economic Review.

The finance ministry said the combination of macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms, and ongoing structural initiatives is expected to have a positive multiplier effect on economic activity.

Despite global economic uncertainties and trade disruptions, India’s economy has continued to gather strength, supported by robust domestic demand, strong manufacturing and services activity, and contained inflation, according to the finance ministry’s Monthly Economic Review for September 2025 released on October 27.

“Amidst…uncertain global outlook, India’s economy continues to gain momentum. Demand conditions across rural and urban India strengthened with the implementation of the GST reforms and the festive season, coinciding with industry reports signalling robust growth in sales, particularly in sectors such as automobiles. On the supply side, the manufacturing and services sectors expanded healthily. Taking into account the higher-than-anticipated growth in Q1 FY26 and steady upward trends visible in Q2 FY26, India’s growth forecasts for FY26 have been upgraded,” the finance ministry said in the report.

The report noted that economic activity worldwide has remained steady over the past few months, despite adverse trade policy disruptions. As a result, global economic growth this year is now expected to fare better than initially feared. This is reflected in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) upward revision of the global growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 per cent in October 2025, compared with 3 per cent in July 2025 and 2.8 per cent in April 2025. Several transitory factors, such as a lower effective tariff rate in the US and frontloading of trade, have contributed to propping up growth. However, this resilience masks underlying structural weaknesses which are coming to the fore, leaving projections for global growth in 2026 broadly unchanged since July 2025.

The IMF now expects India’s real GDP to grow 6.6% in FY26, while the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projects an even higher 6.8% growth, reflecting upgrades of 20 and 30 basis points, respectively.

Inflation Under Control, Price Stability Expected to Continue

The report highlighted that inflation remains well within control, aided by continued deflation in food categories. Retail headline inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, bringing the Q2 FY26 average to 1.7%.

Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) stood at 4.6% in September, with prices of non-food items staying stable. The ministry said, barring any adverse weather events or supply chain shocks, price stability is likely to prevail.

The RBI expects inflation to average 1.8% in Q3 FY26, with a slight uptick in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 as base effects fade.

RBI Measures Support Liquidity and Credit Flow

The finance ministry credited the RBI’s liquidity management for ensuring adequate credit availability to support growth. The transmission of monetary policy into money and credit markets remains effective, reflecting the central bank’s calibrated approach.

It added that the RBI’s recent regulatory and development policies demonstrate a “balanced response” to evolving macroeconomic conditions — combining prudence with reforms aimed at strengthening banks, boosting credit flow, simplifying forex management, and internationalising the Indian Rupee.

External Trade Remains Resilient

India’s external sector has also shown resilience despite a volatile global trade environment. Total exports of goods and services grew 4.4% year-on-year in the first half of FY26 to reach USD 413.3 billion.

While merchandise exports rose 3%, services exports expanded 6.1% during the same period. Core merchandise exports, excluding petroleum and gems & jewellery, grew a strong 7.5%, underscoring the competitiveness of India’s manufacturing base.

Labour Market, Reforms, and Innovation Drive Growth

The government’s emphasis on skill development and job creation has helped stabilise the labour market in H1 FY26, with rising labour force participation and employment growth in both industry and services.

The introduction of GST 2.0 is expected to further stimulate consumption and investment, creating a multiplier effect on employment and demand.

The report also highlighted the government’s focus on research and innovation to boost global competitiveness. The Promotion of Research & Innovation in Pharma-MedTech Sector (PRIP) scheme, launched by the Department of Pharmaceuticals, will provide around ₹11,000 crore in support for R&D projects. The initiative aims to transform India’s Pharma-MedTech sector into a globally competitive, innovation-driven ecosystem by funding early-stage research and promoting flexible collaborations focused on public health priorities.

Outlook: Growth Momentum to Sustain

The finance ministry said the combination of macroeconomic stability, regulatory reforms, and ongoing structural initiatives is expected to have a positive multiplier effect on economic activity. These efforts, it said, will support domestic demand, enhance resilience, and help sustain India’s growth momentum despite a challenging global environment.

“Looking ahead, the lower GST rate is expected to support a positive demand outlook by reducing the tax burden on consumers and businesses, stimulating consumption and investment across sectors and boosting employment generation in the economy. Moreover, a strong performance in the industries and services sector, along with a stable labour market, will further enhance domestic demand. Nevertheless, global uncertainties warrant caution and will continue to affect external demand, presenting downside risks to the growth outlook,” the ministry said.

The implementation of various growth-enhancing structural reforms and government initiatives, including GST 2.0, is expected to mitigate some of the negative impacts of these external challenges, it added.

Mohammad Haris

Mohammad Haris

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h…Read More

Haris is Deputy News Editor (Business) at news18.com. He writes on various issues related to personal finance, markets, economy and companies. Having over a decade of experience in financial journalism, Haris h… Read More

Follow News18 on Google. Join the fun, play QIK games on News18. Stay updated with all the latest business news, including market trendsstock updatestax, IPO, banking finance, real estate, savings and investments. To Get in-depth analysis, expert opinions, and real-time updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated.
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Boost to homeowners as four major lenders lower mortgage rates

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Boost to homeowners as four major lenders lower mortgage rates


Homeowners looking to renew their mortgage before the end of the year have received a boost, with four major lenders reducing the interest rates on some deals.

Despite the Bank of England maintaining the base rate at 4 per cent, and not being expected to alter it before December at the earliest, there remains movement in the wider market around both savings and mortgages.

Last week, Zopa bank brought out an inflation-beating 4.75 per cent easy-access savings account, and now some households have another positive to consider, with lowered rates on mortgage deals.

Barclays announced five five-year products with newly lowered rates, ranging from 60 per cent to 95 per cent loan-to-value, with the lowest interest rate among these products coming in at 3.91 per cent.

HSBC did not announce exact cuts, but reduced a raft of residential mortgage products, with Santander then following suit, lowering fixed rates by as much as 0.36 per cent in some three-year fixes. On Monday, NatWest also cut rates, including lowering a two-year fixed deal to 3.77 per cent.

More than 400,000 homeowners will be coming to the end of a fixed-term deal before 31 December, mortgage and finance expert Jo Hodgson told The Independent, with the vast majority likely to need to renew their agreement.

Those who took out two-year deals initially will find interest rates are lower this time round – but those coming to the end of post-Covid purchases on five-year fixes will be preparing for a rise in payments.

There is still movement in the wider market around both savings and mortgages (PA)

This month’s lower-than-expected inflation reading has potentially paved the way for the Bank of England to lower interest rates further in the coming months, but few expect there to be more than one cut in the next three months, meaning that swap rates – which mortgage deals are based on – have already priced in most potential movements.

“There are early positive signs for mortgage rates after the rate of inflation for September held steady, undershooting expectation,” David Hollingworth from L&C Mortgages said.

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“Hopes that inflation may have peaked at a lower level than expected have opened the door to a reduction in the Bank of England base rate before the end of the year. As market forecasting has improved, swap rates have fallen further, which should give lenders the chance to improve their fixed rates.

“We know that once there are moves from some of the big players, it will inevitably lead to others following suit. If the more positive outlook in the markets holds firm, we could see another series of repricing moves that will cut fixed-rate pricing.

“However, with the Budget to come, it’s hard to predict where sentiment could head from here. That’s already brought some borrower anxiety into play, and so there’s still a strong case for taking a rate now and keeping a close eye on market movement from here. That will give security, but still allow a jump to a lower rate before completion if we see further improvements.”



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The Credit Card ‘Swipe Trap’: 5 Hidden Financial Risks You Must Watch Out For

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The Credit Card ‘Swipe Trap’: 5 Hidden Financial Risks You Must Watch Out For


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Overspending on credit cards can hurt finances. Spending Rs 40,000 out of a Rs 50,000 limit may reduce credit score and even lead to a lower card limit

Spending must remain within limits, and expenses should be tracked using a budgeting app. (Representative/Shutterstock)

Credit and debit cards, often referred to as plastic money, have revolutionised the shopping experience, making it incredibly easy and convenient. Credit cards, in particular, allow consumers to purchase their favourite items instantly, even without sufficient funds in their accounts. However, this convenience comes with potential financial pitfalls. If not managed properly, credit cards can become a financial burden. Understanding these risks can help individuals avoid such traps.

High Interest Rates Can Trap You In Debt

One of the primary dangers of credit cards is the high interest rates.

  • Consider the case of Rahul, who borrowed Rs 10,000 with the intention of repaying it the following month. However, with interest rates ranging between 18-36%, his debt ballooned to Rs 15,000 within six months, trapping him in a cycle of debt.
  • This illustrates the danger of carrying an outstanding balance on a credit card, where high interest rates can turn a small debt into a substantial one.
  • To avoid this, it is crucial to pay the full bill each month and prioritise clearing the card with the highest interest rate first. Additionally, opting for the EMI (Equated Monthly Installment) option, while checking the interest calculator, can be beneficial.

The Ghost Of Late Payments

  • Late payments pose another significant risk, as they can negatively impact credit scores for up to seven years. This can affect not only the ability to secure loans but also job prospects and rental applications.
  • Setting up auto-payment and calendar reminders can help avoid late payments. At the very least, paying the minimum amount on time is essential, though full payment is always preferable.

The Danger Of Overspending

  • Overspending is a common issue with credit cards. For example, if the card limit is Rs 50,000 and Rs 40,000 is spent, it could lead to a reduced credit score and a lowered card limit.
  • Spending more than 30% of the credit limit can label a person as ‘high risk’ to banks.
  • To prevent this, it is advisable to follow the 30% rule, using budget apps and distinguishing between needs and wants.

The ‘Greed Trap’ Of Credit Card Rewards

  • Many people end up shopping more than needed just to earn cashback. Rewards worth Rs 2,000 often lead to an extra spend of Rs 20,000.
  • The lure of points, miles, or cashback creates an illusion of savings — when in reality, it’s overspending.
  • To prevention this, rewards should be treated as a bonus, not a goal. Spending must remain within limits, and expenses should be tracked using a budgeting app.

The Hidden Ghost Of Secret Charges

  • Credit cards often include hidden charges. For instance, Vikram used his card during an overseas trip and was shocked to see an additional bill of Rs 5,000 — comprising a 3% foreign transaction fee, annual fee, and late payment charge.
  • Annual fees, overlimit penalties, and currency conversion costs are among the many charges that often go unnoticed.
  • To prevent this, the fine print must be reviewed carefully before selecting a card. Monthly statements should be checked for unexplained charges, and opting for a no-fee card is advisable.

Follow These 3 Golden Credit Card Rules

To be a savvy credit card user, one should follow these three golden rules:

  • Track every transaction with apps like Mint or PhonePe,
  • Create an emergency fund instead of relying on credit cards,
  • Stay informed about RBI guidelines, which cap interest rates at 36%. Smart usage is the key to avoiding financial pitfalls.
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News business The Credit Card ‘Swipe Trap’: 5 Hidden Financial Risks You Must Watch Out For
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Petrofac files for administration putting 2,000 jobs at risk

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Petrofac files for administration putting 2,000 jobs at risk



Oil and gas services firm Petrofac has filed for administration, putting around 2,000 Scottish jobs at risk.

The company is tumbling into insolvency after recent restructuring plans collapsed in the wake of a failed renewables contract in the Netherlands.

On Monday, Petrofac told investors that it has applied to the High Court to appoint administrators.

The firm employs more than 7,000 workers globally.

This includes around 2,000 employees from its UK base in Aberdeen, with around 1,200 of these offshore and a further 800 onshore in training and operational roles.

Petrofac said it will now enter insolvency after Dutch electricity grid TenneT terminated a major contract to build windfarms.

The company stressed that the administration will affect the group’s main holding company.

It will continue to trade and assess options for an alternative restructuring, with different merger and acquisition options also being explored with its key creditors.

Advisers at corporate finance firm Teneo are expected to advise over the administration.

“When appointed, administrators will work alongside executive management to preserve value, operational capability and ongoing delivery across the group’s operating and trading entities,” the company said.

Petrofac’s UK business is based in Aberdeen and is involved in the operation of North Sea oil platforms for firms including BP and Shell.

It also has smaller offices in London, Woking and Great Yarmouth.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has stressed the Government will work with Petrofac after the oil and gas services group filed for administration.

A DESNZ spokeswoman said: “The UK arm of Petrofac has not entered administration and is continuing to operate as normal, as an in-demand business with a highly-skilled workforce and many successful contracts.

“Petrofac’s administration is a product of longstanding issues in their global business.

“The Government will continue to work with the UK company as it focuses on its long-term future.

“Ministers are working across all parts of government led by DESNZ in support of this.”

The company was worth around £6 billion at its peak in 2012 but has slumped in recent years.

It was worth around £20 million when its shares were suspended in May after being severely impacted by an investigation by the Serious Fraud Office and volatile energy prices.



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