The 2026 FIFA men’s World Cup kicks off in just 203 days, but six qualification slots are still up for grabs via the Intercontinental and European playoffs.

Two teams will book a place at the event (to be played in the U.S., Mexico and Canada) via the playoffs, which will be staged in Mexico in March, while 16 European nations, including four-time World Cup winners Italy, are set to battle it out for the final four UEFA qualification berths. The path to the World Cup is now clear for the 22 nations still dreaming of a place at the finals next summer.

Following a draw at FIFA HQ in Zurich on Thursday, the playoffs are now locked in, so which teams can start to plan for North America and who has a nightmare route to football’s biggest tournament?

With the ties now confirmed, here are ESPN’s predictions.

European playoffs

The final four places at the World Cup will be determined via the UEFA playoffs, to be played in March 2026. There is no path to the World Cup through FIFA’s interconfederation playoffs.

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The UEFA playoffs involve 16 teams: the 12 group stage runners-up, plus the four best-ranked group winners from the UEFA Nations League who did not finish in the top two in World Cup qualifying. The teams will be divided into four pots according to FIFA ranking, with the Nations League group winners assigned to Pot 4 and drawn into four routes, each with four teams featuring a one-legged semifinal and a final for a place at the World Cup.

Semifinals to be played on March 26; finals to be played on March 31

Path 1: Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, Bosnia-Herzegovina

Semifinal 1, Italy vs. Northern Ireland: The playoff nightmare returns for Italy following elimination at this stage ahead of the 2018 and 2022 World Cup, but they will be happy with a home draw against Northern Ireland in the semifinal.

Michael O’Neill’s team are huge outsiders, and despite finishing second in their qualifying group behind Norway, Italy should be too strong and more than capable of erasing memories of failures to beat Sweden (2018) and North Macedonia (2022) at home in their last playoff campaigns.

Winner: Italy

Semifinal 2, Wales vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Wales coach Craig Bellamy made huge importance of beating North Macedonia in Cardiff in their final group game because that would guarantee a home semifinal, and that advantage should swing the tie in their favor. The Welsh have a formidable record at the Cardiff City Stadium, playing in front of what has been billed as a “Red Wall” of passionate supporters; Bellamy’s team should win this game to seal another home tie against Italy in the final.

Winner: Wales

Final, Wales vs. Italy: Despite being the highest-ranked nation in the playoffs, sitting 12th in the FIFA Rankings, Italy lack a proven goal scorer, and they struggle to break opponents down.

If key men Sandro Tonali and Giacomo Raspadori are fit and in form, Italy should have enough to shade this tie, but Wales are strong at home, and if these two meet in the final, don’t be surprised if Wales inflict yet another playoff heartbreak on the Azzurri.

Prediction: Wales advances

Path 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Albania

Semifinal 1, Ukraine vs. Sweden: While Ukraine have home advantage, the ongoing conflict in the country means Sergiy Rebrov’s team will likely play this tie in neutral Poland, and that could tilt the game in Sweden’s favor.

Sweden were dismal in qualification, finishing at the bottom of Group B without a win in six games, but their Nations League success last year sealed a playoff spot, and star forwards Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres will surely see this as a second chance to qualify that they cannot pass up. Sweden are hugely fortunate to be in the playoffs, but they will be too strong for Ukraine.

Winner: Sweden

Semifinal 2, Poland vs. Albania: Poland have become the team that always qualifies for major tournaments but fails to deliver once on the big stage. But this is a tough tie.

Albania, coached by former Barcelona and Brazil defender Sylvinho, are a well-organized, high-energy team, and they will be confident in beating Poland away from home. At 37, this will be Robert Lewandowski‘s final World Cup campaign. If the Barcelona forward is on form, Poland will win. If not, back Albania.

Winner: Albania

Final, Sweden vs. Albania: Albania are good enough to cause any opponent problems and could quite easily travel to Sweden and win. But if Sweden overcome Ukraine and seal a home game in the final, it would be tough to deny a team with the attacking qualities of Isak, Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga.

Sweden, now coached by Graham Potter, really shouldn’t have this opportunity to reach the World Cup, but they are the strongest squad in Path B, so they will qualify.

Prediction: Sweden advances

Path 3: Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo

Semifinal 1, Turkey vs. Romania: Turkey showed their strength by earning a 2-2 draw against Spain in Seville in their final Group E game, a result that restored some pride after a 6-0 home defeat against the European champions in September. Having scored 12 goals in three games against Bulgaria (twice) and Georgia in between the Spain fixtures, Turkey are clearly an attacking force and loaded with top talent, including Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz, Deniz Gül and midfielder Hakan Çalhanoglu.

Romania, coached by the 80-year-old Mircea Lucescu, are unpredictable but talented. They will be brave and confident in this game, but Turkey should be too strong.

Winner: Turkey

Semifinal 2, Slovakia vs. Kosovo: Kosovo are the most dangerous outsiders in the European playoffs and much stronger than their FIFA ranking of 80th would suggest. Franco Foda’s team lack big names, but their players are based throughout Europe, and Kosovo ran Switzerland close in Group B, beating Sweden home and away before being held at home by the Swiss in the final game.

Slovakia shocked Germany with a 2-0 home win in qualification before losing 6-0 to Julian Nagelsmann’s side in Leipzig in the final game. Slovakia are ranked higher (45th) by FIFA, but Kosovo are a better team right now.

Winner: Kosovo

Final, Kosovo vs. Turkey: On paper, Turkey are big favorites to make it through Path C to the finals, but home advantage could be decisive for Kosovo if they eliminate Slovakia.

Having only become a FIFA member in 2015, following a declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, the national fervor for home games in Pristina makes Kosovo a formidable opponent for Turkey. This could be a game in which Turkey’s superior talent and depth counts for little against a Kosovo team determined to make history by qualifying for a first World Cup.

Prediction: Kosovo advances

Path 4: Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, Republic of Ireland

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Semifinal 1, Denmark vs. North Macedonia: Denmark threw away an automatic qualification spot by drawing at home to Belarus and then losing away to Scotland in their final two games having been in control of Group C, so their status as favorites in this tie should be tempered by the scars of their group-stage failure.

North Macedonia’s 7-1 defeat away to Wales in their final game should not be taken as a true gauge of their capabilities, though. Blagoja Milevski’s team drew home and away with group winners Belgium and they will relish their underdog status, just as they did when eliminating Italy with a 1-0 win in Palermo in the 2018 playoffs. Denmark should be too strong at home, but North Macedonia are primed to record another shocking result.

Winner: North Macedonia

Semifinal 2, Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: The Czechs were locked in a surprise battle with the Faroe Islands for the runners-up spot in Group L and almost blew it with a 2-1 defeat away to the perennial minnows in Tórshavn in October. But Jaroslav Kostl’s squad, which includes West Ham’s Tomás Soucek and Bayer Leverkusen forward Patrik Schick, held their nerve to seal second position behind Croatia.

Ireland came from nowhere to claim a playoff place, though, with a shocking 2-0 home win against Portugal before Troy Parrott‘s hat trick in Budapest, including a 96th-minute winner, denied Hungary and claimed second spot for Heimir Hallgrimsson’s team. Ireland have momentum and belief, so they can win this tie and book a home final in Dublin.

Winner: Republic of Ireland

Final, North Macedonia vs. Republic of Ireland: Home advantage in a game to decide a place in the World Cup will be crucial, and Ireland, backed by a crowd of 52,000 in Dublin, might just have enough to make it the World Cup.

North Macedonia are more individually talented, and the same applies to Denmark if they make the final, but Ireland coach Hallgrimsson made his name guiding Iceland to a series of shocking wins, and he can do it again if key players Troy Parrott, Caoimhin Kelleher and Evan Ferguson are fit and in form in March.

Prediction: Republic of Ireland advances

Intercontinental Playoffs

The playoffs, to be held in March, will determine the final two qualifiers. Six countries will take part. Each of the five confederations (apart from UEFA) will provide one country, while the host confederation (Concacaf) receives a second slot.

The two nations with the best FIFA world ranking will be seeded and go straight into one of the two finals. The four other countries will be drawn to play a semifinal, feeding through to play a seed for one of the two places at the World Cup.

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New Caledonia or Jamaica vs. Congo DR

Congo DR await the winners of the New Caledonia vs. Jamaica semifinal, and it would be a huge upset if Jamaica fail to book a final clash against the African nation.

New Caledonia are the lowest-ranked team in the playoffs, sitting at 149th in the FIFA rankings, and coach Johann Sidaner told ESPN last month that his team, from an archipelago in the South Pacific, have a “1 percent chance” of qualifying for the World Cup.

Jamaica blew their chance of automatic qualification with a 0-0 draw at home to Curacao in the final round of Concacaf qualifiers, and that result forced coach Steve McClaren to quit. Jamaica will be too strong for New Caledonia, and they will face Congo DR as underdogs.

Congo DR have Premier League experience in Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Arthur Masuaku and Axel Tuanzebe, but Jamaica can also rely on Brentford‘s Rico Henry and Ethan Pinnock. This tie is a close call, but Congo DR look to have just a little bit more quality and will claim the qualification spot.

Prediction: Congo DR advances

Bolivia or Suriname vs. Iraq

Iraq won a two-legged Asian playoff against United Arab Emirates to clinch their place in the Intercontinental playoffs — their winning goal was a penalty 17 minutes into stoppage time.

Due to their FIFA ranking of 58th, Iraq are seeded through to the final, where they will expect to face Bolivia. Coached by former Australia coach Graham Arnold, Iraq’s squad are largely based in the Middle East, but former Manchester United youngster Zidane Iqbal, now at FC Utrecht, is a player with European experience.

Suriname, ranked 123rd, have a squad of players based in Europe, but while Bolivia’s squad is largely drawn from South American leagues, they have a recent win against Brazil on their form guide, so they should be too strong for Suriname. If Bolivia face Iraq in the final, it will be tough to call, but their experience of playing at altitude could be crucial in Mexico, and it should give them the edge.

Prediction: Bolivia advances

They are the kind of midseason acquisitions that dreams are made of.

Think of the player who comes in, fits in seamlessly with his teammates, and whose performances on the field make the team better. Reality is often different, with some players not quite living up to the hype. But this Saturday, the MLS Cup playoffs will feature two players who fit into the former category: LAFC‘s Son Heung-Min and the Vancouver Whitecaps‘ Thomas Müller.

It’s almost a shame that these players are meeting up at this stage of the playoffs, and not deeper into the postseason. Son has been a sensation for LAFC, both on and off the field, recording 10 goals and four assists in 12 league and playoff appearances, and electrifying LAFC’s entire fanbase with his trademark smile. Müller has been almost as good, with eight goals and three assists in nine matches, including the postseason.

It raises the question of why have Son and Müller have done so well while others have failed, beyond their obvious quality. ESPN tackled that query as it related to high-profile players earlier this year, and the list of factors included adapting to the style of play, the ability to adapt to new teammates off the field, as well as the hunger to win.

It sounds simple, but it also requires the kind of character that is accepting of how the soccer culture in MLS might be very different than what they’re used to. Suffice it to say, Müller and Son have checked all of those boxes.

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LAFC defender Ryan Hollingshead recalls with clarity the first time he met Son. It was when the South Korea international was introduced before the team’s Leagues Cup match against Tigres, and went into the locker room, where Hollingshead was using some weights to help him warm up for the match.

“I handed [Son] my weights and he said, ‘Let’s get to work,'” Hollingshead recalled. “And he laughed and started doing the exercise. He was ready to go. Obviously, he was in his street clothes, but it was just one of those where it was like, I got to test his banter early, and he definitely passed the test.”

Son’s acclimatization was helped by the fact that he fit perfectly into LAFC’s counterattacking style. LAFC manager Steve Cherundolo felt his side were missing another attacking weapon up top, one who could finish plays and create a goal out of nothing. That proved correct, with Son’s pairing with Denis Bouanga proving to be devastating to opponents, with Bouanga netting 13 times since Son’s arrival.

But Son’s attitude has been critical to his adaptation as well. Hollingshead noted that Son is demanding, isn’t afraid to speak up if something isn’t working, but in a constructive way.

“[Son] is the first one to push for things,” Hollingshead said. “But then, as soon as the play breaks, he’s coming over and giving you a high five and laughing with you and talking to you about what he could have done differently himself and what he saw, and he’s talking through the play. So it’s like trying to find a solution. And that’s what I love. It’s not just frustration. It’s like, ‘How do we as a team get better?’ His goal is always to make the team better.”

Some familiar faces have helped as well. LAFC keeper Hugo Lloris was at one time Son’s captain at Tottenham Hotspur. Cherundolo played against Son when the two were in the Bundesliga, Cherundolo with Hannover 96, while Son was with Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen. Cherundolo recalled that Son was “constantly a thorn to your side, running and darting and just a pain.

“All of those components point into really only one direction,” added Cherundolo. “This was always headed towards success.”

Many of the attributes that those around LAFC use to describe Son are echoed by Vancouver players and staff about Müller. There’s a push for perfection, but also a humility about everything he does.

“He wants it to be about the Whitecaps with Thomas on the team, and not about Thomas and then with the Whitecaps in the background,” said Vancouver manager Jesper Sørensen. “So I think that’s been his ambition from day one. And that’s also been how he’s been acting, and that’s been very easy for his teammates to deal with. Also with him and also for us as coaches, because obviously we also looked how we could make him fit well into how we would like to do stuff.”

Whitecaps midfielder Sebastian Berhalter recalled how Müller sent him a text before he arrived, where the German introduced himself, and said how excited he was to play with the U.S. international and that they would do great things together. That made a huge impression.

“[That] kind of just set the tone from the beginning, that he’s just like us and he wants to just be one of the boys,” Berhalter told ESPN. “And that’s something from day one, he’s emphasized that he just wants to be one of the boys and we’ve tried to make him feel like that.”

Once the two got to know each other as teammates, the conversations covered all kinds of topics, from soccer tactics to recovery to the way he looks at life. Berhalter’s biggest takeaway?

“[Müller] doesn’t overthink things, he doesn’t make anything complicated,” said Berhalter. “He keeps it very simple and very easy and he does what he wants to do, and that’s very clear and that I think is what makes him successful. He’s learned over his career that, for him, it’s about just being himself and doing the right things and being a realist almost in senses and not trying to hide and going after it.”

Müller may have spent his entire career before this summer in Germany with mighty Bayern Munich, but he knew that the changes he was taking on were big enough that nothing was guaranteed. His attitude proved to be his insurance policy.

“I was not coming here for vacation,” Müller told reporters on Tuesday. “I wanted to do a serious job and that was always my goal when I came here, that I want to perform. But you never know in a different country, different league, in a new team, how long this process maybe will last until you’re really a real part of the team.

“But yeah, in the end I was always able to adapt really quick to situations during all my career. I changed my playing styles so many times in a tiny bit of way.”

The two players have faced off nine times previously, with Müller having the edge with a 6W-1L-2D record, but Son’s win was a biggie: that being in the 2018 World Cup when he scored in South Korea’s 2-0 win over Germany that eliminated the defending World Cup champions.

When asked what he remembered about Son when they squared off in the Bundesliga, Müller remarked that it was a little unfair to look at the kind of player the South Korea international was back then. The Hamburg and Leverkusen teams didn’t have the level of talent to compete with the likes of Bayern.

“We are now [on] very good teams, two very good teams, and he is a big player there,” Müller said about Son. “I’m a big player here, so it’s a little bit different because when he was at Hamburg, when we came with Bayern at this time, we crushed him every time.”

LAFC will be trying to avoid that fate on Saturday. Doing so will require finding a way to nullify Müller as best they can. Cherundolo knows from personal experience how difficult that is.

“He’s one of the most intelligent players out there in the world, just really exceptional at reading the moment in the game and what the game needs,” Cherundolo said. “He has a very lanky and long frame and his technique sometimes look like it’s out of control, but I can tell you firsthand it is everything but that. It is 100% under control and in control. He’s exceptional at his first touch, his passes, his finishes.

“He doesn’t make mistakes and his timing of spatial awareness is amazing. His prowess in the box and sniffing plays out is world class.”

So is Son’s, and come Saturday, fans of both teams — as well as neutrals — will get a chance to admire the quality of both players. But only one player’s dream season will continue.