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Ask Dhirendra: ‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’ – The Times of India

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Ask Dhirendra: ‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’ – The Times of India


You don’t look at your portfolio like a long-term investor; you look at it like a daily scorecard. (AI image)

“‘If I know markets go up in the long run, why do short-term losses bother me so much?’This is one of the most honest questions an investor can ask.On paper, you know the logic. You’ve seen all the charts: “Sensex 100 to 70,000”, “Nifty over 20–25 years”, “equity beats inflation in the long run”. You nod wisely when someone says, “Equity is for the long term.And then one fine day, you open your app, see your portfolio down 8–10 per cent, and your stomach drops.The mind says, “Long term”.The heart says, “Bas, ab yeh band karo.”Let’s start with some sympathy: there is nothing wrong with you. Your brain is not designed for SIPs; it is designed for survival.When our ancestors saw red (blood, fire, and danger) the correct response was to panic and run. Today, your app shows red numbers, and your brain uses the same wiring: “Danger, danger, get out.” The problem is that the stock market is the only place where running at the wrong time converts a temporary fall into a permanent loss.It helps to see what “short term” and “long term” actually look like in numbers.

The market tests patience before it rewards it

The market tests patience before it rewards it

When we look at this kind of data at Value Research, the pattern is always similar. Over the course of a year, losses are frequent. Over ten-year periods, they shrink dramatically. So the market is not misbehaving when it falls in a single year. It’s behaving exactly like a market. It is unrealistic to expect a smooth, linear upward graph.There’s another uncomfortable truth. You don’t look at your portfolio like a long-term investor; you look at it like a daily scorecard. Every time you open the app, the number on top becomes a verdict on your intelligence. Up means “I am smart”; down means “I am stupid.” Of course, you don’t want to feel stupid for three months in a row.Now we put some more structure on this feeling.Imagine you start a ₹10,000 monthly SIP in a good, diversified equity fund for 15–20 years. Somewhere along the way, there is a year when the market is down 20 per cent.There are only three things that can happen in that year:

  1. You panic and stop your SIP or redeem.
  2. You grit your teeth and do nothing.
  3. You not only continue but increase your investments.
The cost of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time

The cost of doing the wrong thing at the wrong time

When we run such scenarios at Value Research, the surprising part is this: the investor who simply does nothing in bad years often beats the one who keeps jumping around trying to avoid pain.So why can’t we “do nothing” easily?Partly because we confuse volatility with failure, a minus 10 per cent year feels like a verdict on our choice rather than a normal part of the journey. And partly because we mix up time horizons. We say, “This is for my retirement in 2045,” and then behave as if the performance over the last 45 days is all that matters.One practical way to calm yourself is to separate money by purpose. If you put all your money into the market and then need some of it next year, of course, every fall will feel catastrophic. But if you’ve done the boring work—kept an emergency fund, kept short-term money in safer avenues—then the equity money is truly long-term. You’re not going to need it next Diwali, so you don’t have to judge it every Diwali.Another trick is to change what you watch.Instead of staring at the absolute value, look at two different things:

  • How much time do you have left before you actually need this money?
  • How much of your target have you already accumulated?

At Value Research, our planning tools and advice try to shift people from “portfolio value today” to “probability of meeting your goal over time”. It’s much easier to tolerate a bad year in the market if you see that you’re still broadly on track for your long-term destination.And finally, accept this: you don’t have to enjoy seeing losses. You just have to not overreact to them. The test of a good investment is not whether it goes up every quarter; it’s whether it helps you reach your goals over ten or twenty years, without making you do something foolish in between.So if you know markets go up in the long run but short-term losses still bother you, that just means you’re human. Good. Stay human. Just put a system around your humanity:

  • Keep your emergency and near-term money out of harm’s way.
  • Use equity only for genuinely long-term goals.
  • Decide your SIPs when you are calm, and refuse to renegotiate them with your panicked future self.

Red numbers on a screen are not a verdict on your intelligence. Most of the time, they’re just the market’s way of asking, “Did you really mean it when you said long term?”If the answer is yes, close the app and let time do the arguing for you.If you have any queries for Dhirendra Kumar you can drop us an email at: toi.business@timesinternet.in(Dhirendra Kumar is Founder and CEO of Value Research)



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Four ports under construction in Andhra Pradesh, Centre tells Lok Sabha – The Times of India

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Four ports under construction in Andhra Pradesh, Centre tells Lok Sabha – The Times of India


The Centre is pushing port-led infrastructure expansion in Andhra Pradesh, with four ports currently under construction, even as it steps up nationwide port modernisation and efficiency measures.As per information shared on Friday in Parliament, the ports under construction in Andhra Pradesh are Mulapeta Port (formerly Bhavanapadu Port) in Srikakulam district, Machilipatnam Port in Krishna district, Ramayapatnam Port in SPSR Nellore district, and Kakinada SEZ Port in Kakinada district.The government said it is undertaking measures such as mechanisation of berths and terminals, digitalisation and logistics integration, new berth construction, capital dredging for larger vessels, and connectivity upgrades across road, rail and waterways.It has also rolled out initiatives including elimination of manual forms, direct port delivery and entry, container scanners, e-delivery of documents and payments, RFID-based gate automation and Maritime Single Window platform SagarSetu 2.0 to cut vessel turnaround time.Two new ports — Vadhavan Port in Maharashtra and Galathea Bay Port in Andaman and Nicobar Islands — have been notified as major ports. At present, 12 major ports operate under the central government, while 68 other-than-major ports are under state governments.Under the Sagarmala scheme, financial assistance is provided across five pillars including port modernisation, connectivity, port-led industrialisation, coastal community development and inland water transport.The government has also launched HaritSagar green port guidelines, the Green Tug Transition Programme (GTTP), and the Cruise Bharat Mission to promote sustainability and cruise tourism.The information was given by Union Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways Sarbananda Sonowal in a written reply to the Lok Sabha.At present, 12 major ports operate under the administrative control of the central government, while 68 operational other-than-major ports are under state governments.The government said it has launched multiple national programmes for port development, expansion and upgradation. Under the Sagarmala scheme, financial assistance is provided under five pillars — port modernisation, port connectivity, port-led industrialisation, coastal community development, and coastal shipping and inland water transport.Green and sustainability-linked initiatives have also been introduced. The government has launched HaritSagar green port guidelines to promote environment-friendly port ecosystems and initiated the Green Tug Transition Programme (GTTP) to shift harbour tugs towards greener fuel alternatives.Further, the Cruise Bharat Mission has been launched to prioritise cruise tourism development across the country.



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Anthropic At $380 Billion Surpasses India’s Top IT Firms Combined As AI Fears Rock Stocks

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Anthropic At 0 Billion Surpasses India’s Top IT Firms Combined As AI Fears Rock Stocks


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Anthropic’s AI tools have triggered a sharp decline in Indian IT stocks like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, eroding Rs 3,11,873 crore in market value.

Anthropic's valuation surpassed combined value of total IT firms in India

Anthropic’s valuation surpassed combined value of total IT firms in India

The entire Information Technology (IT) industry in India is battering with the existential threat, which comes on the heels of rising generative AI, posing doubts over the viability of their business model.

Stocks of the IT industries, including Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, etc., hit brutally over the past week. This was triggered with the launch of new AI tools by Anthropic’s Claude for Cowork, which is like an office teammate helping the user to do tasks such as file sorting, reading legal drafts, etc.

Anthropic’s Valuation vs Nifty IT Index

Anthropic’s phenomenal valuation rise has surpassed the combined value of India’s top IT firms. Standing at a valuation of $380 billion, the US-based AI company has eclipsed India’s Nifty IT index, whose market cap was at $296.4 billion by the time of writing this report.

Investors are accelerating their exit from technology stocks as concerns intensify that advanced artificial intelligence tools could disrupt core segments of the global software and IT services industry.

This week alone, TCS, Infosys and HCL Technologies dragged 9-11 per cent.

The sharp correction has wiped out substantial investor wealth. Based on intraday lows, the combined market capitalisation of the top five domestic IT companies has eroded by nearly Rs 3,11,873 crore this week.

TCS emerged as the biggest laggard, losing Rs 1,28,800 crore in market value, with its market capitalisation slipping to Rs 9,35,253 crore. The fall also pushed it to the fifth-most valued listed company from the fourth position.

Infosys has seen its market capitalisation shrink by Rs 91,431 crore following a 15 per cent decline this week. HCL Technologies has lost Rs 53,647 crore in market value over the past five trading sessions. Wipro and Tech Mahindra have also recorded declines, with their market capitalisations falling by Rs 22,762 crore and Rs 15,233 crore, respectively, during the same period.

Company Name Mcap ($Billion)
Tata Consultancy Services 107.4
Infosys 61.2
HCL Technologies 43.6
Wipro 24.8
Tech Mahindra 16.6
LTIMindtree 16.7
Persistent Systems 9.5
Oracle Financial Services Soft 6.4
Coforge 5
Mphasis 5.2
Total 296.4
Source: Bloomberg

Anthropic’s Recent Funding Round

Anthropic has recently raised $30 billion in Series G funding led by GIC and Coatue, valuing Anthropic at $380 billion post-money, as announced by the company in the press release.

The investment will fuel the frontier research, product development, and infrastructure expansions that have made Anthropic the market leader in enterprise AI and coding.

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IndiGo plans to hire over 1,000 pilots after December’s crew crunch – The Times of India

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IndiGo plans to hire over 1,000 pilots after December’s crew crunch – The Times of India


IndiGo, the country’s largest airline is set to go on a hiring spree, bringing over 1,000 pilots on board. This comes after the aviation giant faced massive operational disruption last December, when the company was forced to cancel more than 5,000 flights within seven days.The fresh intake will span trainee first officers, senior first officers and commanders. A recruitment notice shows the carrier is also ready to accept applicants without time on the Airbus A320, the workhorse aircraft across its network, ET reported.Under the updated framework, the number of landings permitted between 12 am and 6 am has been limited, while the mandatory weekly rest period for pilots has gone up.A review carried out by the irectorate General of Civil Aviation concluded that the airline had neither hired in line with the new rules nor accelerated its training capacity. This, the probe noted, resulted in pilots being stretched through repeated reassignments, lengthier duty spans and greater use of deadheading, in which crew are moved as passengers to operate flights elsewhere.

Stepping up expansion

A senior official, as cited by ET, maintained that IndiGo is now lining up a steady supply of cockpit crew to keep pace with rapid aircraft additions. The airline’s in-house system is currently upgrading about 20–25 first officers to captain each month. Now, alongside hiring, the carrier has begun adjusting its network planning to create more breathing space in daily operations. From almost no buffer in December, the margin has been raised to 3% this month. Standby crew availability has also been lifted to a minimum of 15%.Fleet expansion is continuing at a brisk rate, with roughly four aircraft joining the airline every month on average.Training remains a long lead activity. Trainee first officers require around six months before they are cleared to operate, while promotion to captaincy demands at least 1,500 hours of flying, though airlines may prescribe stricter benchmarks.While the regulator’s baseline requirement is three sets of pilots per aircraft, including one captain and one first officer, IndiGo’s intense utilisation levels push its need to well over twice that figure.Figures placed during the inquiry into the December episode showed the airline needed 2,422 captains but had 2,357.

DGCA findings

After the disruption, the watchdog stepped in with temporary relaxations, suspending night-duty restriction rules until February 10.In its assessment, the DGCA said there was an overriding focus on maximising utilisation of crew, aircraft, and network resources, which significantly reduced roster buffer margins.The Directorate General of Civil Aviation said that the airline structured its crew schedules to extract the longest possible duty hours, leaning heavily on deadheading, tail swaps and stretched work patterns while leaving very little room for recovery. It noted that such planning weakened roster integrity and hurt operational resilience.



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