Business
Stock market outlook: How will Nifty50, BSE Sensex react to US Fed chair Powell’s rate cut hints? What analysts say – Times of India
Indian equity benchmark indices, Nifty50 and BSE Sensex, are expected to see a gap-up opening on Monday after US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may cut rates in its September policy review.Analysts suggest that domestic equity markets may respond positively to signals of a possible US Federal Reserve rate reduction, whilst investors remain watchful of the approaching deadline for supplementary US tariffs on Indian products in the upcoming shortened trading week. Favourable international indicators may offer backing, following substantial gains in US markets and weakening of the dollar index after Powell signalled possible rate reductions during his Jackson Hole Symposium address, analysts say.Additionally, market movements during the week will be influenced by foreign investor activities, international market developments and scheduled economic data releases such as GDP growth numbers.Last week witnessed the BSE benchmark advancing by 709.19 points or 0.87%, whilst the Nifty registered gains of 238.8 points or 0.96%.
What Fed’s Powell indicated on rate cut
Jerome Powell suggested on Friday that interest rates might be reduced during the September central bank meeting. He adopted a careful approach, avoiding definite promises about rate cuts. His statement recognised growing worries about jobs whilst noting ongoing inflation concerns.“While the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising, and if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment,” Powell said.“At the same time, GDP growth has slowed, notably in the first half of this year, to a pace of 1.2%, roughly half the 2.5% pace in 2024. The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending, as with the labor market. Some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output.“We continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward looking and consider the lags its effects on the economy. For this reason, our policy actions depend on the economic outlook and the balance of risks to that outlook,” he said.
How will Indian stock markets react?
According to Sunny Agrawal, Head – Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, Indian stock markets are expected to react positively on Monday. “Powell indicates conditions ‘may warrant’ interest rate cuts as the situation suggests downside risks to employment rising. This is likely to put pressure on the dollar and augur well for riskier asset classes – EMs like India and commodities. Metals and IT stocks are likely to react positively in the trade on Monday,” Agarwal told TOI.Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited said the stock market’s upside may be muted to US President Donald Trump’s lingering tariffs.“Fed chief Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole indicates a rate cut in September. His remark that ‘there is a downside risk to unemployment and shifting risk balance may warrant policy adjustment’ clearly indicates a rate cut in September. The US markets have responded with rise in stock prices and decline in bond yields. The Indian market, too, may respond positively on Monday, but here tariff concerns are likely to weigh on markets more,” he told TOI.Siddhartha Khemka, who leads Research at the Wealth Management division of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said, “We expect Indian equities to remain supported by optimism around GST 2.0 reforms and domestic macro strength. Globally, clarity on US tariff actions against India and upcoming GDP data from both India and the US will shape investor sentiment”.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has approved a fresh increase in the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), raising the cost for both domestic consumers and commercial users.
According to the notification issued, the LPG price has been increased by Rs7.39 per kilogram, setting the new rate at Rs209 per kg for December. As a result, the price of a domestic LPG cylinder has risen by Rs87.21, bringing the new price to Rs2,466.10.
In November, the price of LPG stood at Rs201 per kg, while the domestic cylinder was priced at Rs2,378.89.
The latest price hike is expected to put additional pressure on households already grappling with rising living costs nationwide.
New Delhi: The taxable value of all supplies under GST surged by a robust 15 per cent during September-October this year, compared to the same period in 2024 due to sharp increase in consumption triggered by the tax rate cuts on goods across sectors that kicked in from September 22, according to official sources.
The growth in the same two-month period last year was 8.6 per cent. “This surge in taxable value during ‘Bachat Utsav’ demonstrates strong consumption uplift, stimulated by reduced rates and improved compliance behaviour,” a senior official said.
He pointed out that the growth has especially been strong in sectors where rate rationalisation was implemented, such as FMCG, pharma goods, food products, automobiles, medical devices and textiles. In these sectors, the taxable value of supplies has seen significantly higher growth, confirming that lower GST rates translated directly into higher consumer spending.
“It vindicates our strategy that reducing rates on essentials and mass-use sectors would create demand-side buoyancy — a Laffer Curve–type demand uplift,” he explained.These trends confirm that GST next-gen reforms have not disrupted revenue stability, and that consumption-side buoyancy has begun to translate into higher taxable value in key sectors.
This growth is in value terms which means that since GST rates were lower, the growth in volume terms will be even higher. It is clearly visible that while the Next Gen Reforms resulted in significant Bachat — increased consumption, industry has been very proactive in passing on the GST savings to the final consumers and ensuring that there is no supply side deficiency.
As GDP private consumption data will be released much later, GST taxable value serves as the most reliable real-time proxy for consumption, and the current numbers clearly indicate sustained demand expansion, the official added.
Business
Private sector data: Over 2 lakh private companies closed in 5 years; govt flags monitoring for suspicious cases – The Times of India
NEW DELHI: The government on Monday said that over the past five years, more than two lakh private companies have been closed in India.According to data provided by Minister of State for Corporate Affairs Harsh Malhotra in a written reply to the Lok Sabha, a total of 2,04,268 private companies were shut down between 2020-21 and 2024-25 due to amalgamation, conversion, dissolution or being struck off from official records under the Companies Act, 2013.Regarding the rehabilitation of employees from these closed companies, the minister said there is currently no proposal before the government, as reported by PTI. In the same period, 1,85,350 companies were officially removed from government records, including 8,648 entities struck off till July 16 this fiscal year. Companies can be removed from records if they are inactive for long periods or voluntarily after fulfilling regulatory requirements.On queries about shell companies and their potential use in money laundering, Malhotra highlighted that the term “shell company” is not defined under the Companies Act, 2013. However, he added that whenever suspicious instances are reported, they are shared with other government agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and the Income Tax Department for monitoring.A major push to remove inactive companies took place in 2022-23, when 82,125 companies were struck off during a strike-off drive by the corporate affairs ministry.The minister also highlighted the government’s broader policy to simplify and rationalize the tax system. “It is the stated policy of the government to gradually phase out exemptions and deductions while rationalising tax rates to create a simple, transparent, and equitable tax regime,” he said. He added that several reforms have been undertaken to promote investment and ease of doing business, including substantial reductions in corporate tax rates for existing and new domestic companies.
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