An earlier Lunar New Year flattered global air cargo demand in January as the year commenced with unexpected vigour with a 7-per cent year-on-year (YoY) boost in demand and an easing of recent freight rate declines, according to Xeneta.

But any early market optimism for 2026 was dampened by the first YoY fall in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022, the Norway-based ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform said.

An earlier Lunar New Year flattered January global air cargo demand, which saw a 7-per cent YoY boost, Xeneta said.
Recent freight rate declines eased.
But any early market optimism for 2026 was dampened by the first YoY fall in e-commerce exports from China since January 2022.
Ocean container shipping is a key wildcard for air freight growth, with the Red Sea/Suez situation needing attention.

The growth in global chargeable weight in January was the strongest increase since January 2025, and ahead of the 5-per cent YoY growth in capacity supply.

With volumes rising faster than capacity, the global dynamic load factor edged up by one percentage point to 57 per cent. Dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity.

Recent pricing declines also recovered with global air cargo spot rates down by just 1 per cent YoY to $2.56 per kg in January. 

The picture for global air cargo spot rates in January may be a truer reflection of world economic events than demand for capacity, said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, in a company release. Air freight rates are typically quoted in local currencies, so a weaker dollar can make a world average—converted back into dollars—look firmer than it truly is.

While the outlook for demand and air cargo rates is unlikely to become clearer until the end of the first quarter, one undeniable fact certain to influence air freight volumes is the drop-off in e-commerce volumes ex China and Hong Kong.

With the US de minimis ban now firmly in place, China-to-US e-commerce exports extended their steep decline, down by more than 50 per cent for a third consecutive month in December. For full year 2025, e-commerce exports fell by 28 per cent YoY.

The move by China’s big e-commerce platforms to grow their share of the European market, to offset higher costs impacting volumes into the US, has provided more positive news on this corridor in recent months, but this, too, is now looking exposed, Xeneta observed.

The growth of China-to-Europe e-commerce volumes slowed to roughly an 8-per cent rise in December compared to a growth rate of 54 per cent over the first 11 months last year. And, excluding Russia, e-commerce sales from China to the rest of Europe declined by a considerable 23 per cent YoY.

Developments in ocean container shipping remain a key wildcard for air freight growth, with the Red Sea/Suez situation requiring close attention. Since late last year, major carriers have been testing Suez Canal routings on selected sailings.

Even if the Red Sea were to improve further, a rapid modal shift from air back to ocean still looks unlikely in the first quarter this year. Many container vessels are still being diverted around Cape of Good Hope routings, transit times are still lengthy, and network-wide schedule/capacity reallocation back to the Suez Canal is operationally difficult to execute within a single quarter.

In the near-term, this uncertainty may help to ensure the demand gap in air freight volumes caused by fewer e-commerce shipments doesn’t widen further, Xeneta added.

Fibre2Fashion (DS)