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Market watch: India’s equity valuations dip below long-term averages; but stay elevated versus peers – The Times of India

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Market watch: India’s equity valuations dip below long-term averages; but stay elevated versus peers – The Times of India


India’s equity valuations are trading marginally below their historical averages but continue to remain expensive compared with regional peers, raising concerns amid slowing earnings growth.The benchmark Nifty currently trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21.97 times, lower than its five- and 10-year averages of 24.4 and 24.8, respectively. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is at 11.7, South Korea’s Kospi below 13, and South Africa at around 12.7, according to an ET report.Valuations in India have traditionally traded at a premium to peers, supported by strong growth prospects. However, with corporate earnings momentum weakening, foreign investors are paring exposure and holding back fresh allocations.

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“Valuations have begun mattering now because nominal GDP growth has slipped into single digits compared to around 12-13%,” said Ritesh Jain, founder of Pinetree Macro, a global macro asset allocation fund. “Corporate profitability is a function of nominal GDP. So, for an overseas fund manager looking at various markets, a country with slowing nominal growth and rich valuations is far less appealing despite its inherent strengths.”India is now the second-most expensive major market after the US, with some global fund managers increasingly shifting allocations to cheaper Chinese, European, and Japanese equities.Fund managers also noted that index composition plays a key role in valuation levels. “The composition of Indian indices must be taken into account while looking at valuations,” said Nilesh Shah, managing director, Kotak Mutual Fund. “If the Sensex and Nifty are full of expensive consumer names and there are fewer commodity players, it’s bound to push up valuation levels. If we were to remove some of the consumer names, our valuations are around averages on a historical basis.





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Millions missing out on benefits and government support, analysis suggests

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Millions missing out on benefits and government support, analysis suggests


Dan WhitworthReporter, Radio 4 Money Box

Andrea Paterson A self-portrait family shot of Andrea Paterson alongside her mum, Sally, and dad, Ian.Andrea Paterson

Andrea (left) persuaded her mum Sally to apply for attendance allowance on behalf of her dad Ian, which helped them cope with rising energy costs

New analysis suggests seven million households are missing out on £24bn of financial help and support because of unclaimed benefits and social tariffs.

The research from Policy in Practice, a social policy and data analytics company, says awareness, complexity and stigma are the main barriers stopping people claiming.

This analysis covers benefits across England, Scotland and Wales such as universal credit and pension credit, local authority help including free school meals and council tax support, as well as social tariffs from water, energy and broadband providers.

The government said it ran public campaigns to promote benefits and pointed to the free Help to Claim service.

Andrea Paterson in London persuaded her mum, Sally, to apply for attendance allowance on behalf of her dad, Ian, last December after hearing about the benefit on Radio 4’s Money Box.

Ian, who died in May, was in poor health at the time and he and Sally qualified for the higher rate of attendance allowance of £110 per week, which made a huge difference to their finances, according to Andrea.

“£110 per week is a lot of money and they weren’t getting the winter fuel payment anymore,” she said.

“So the first words that came out of Mum’s mouth were ‘well, that will make up for losing the winter fuel payment’, which [was] great.

“All pensioners worry about money, everyone in that generation worries about money. I think it eased that worry a little bit and it did allow them to keep the house [warmer].”

Unclaimed benefits increasing

In its latest report, Policy in Practice estimates that £24.1bn in benefits and social tariffs will go unclaimed in 2025-26.

It previously estimated that £23bn would go unclaimed in 2024-25, and £19bn the year before that, although this year’s calculations are more detailed than ever before.

“There are three main barriers to claiming – awareness, complexity and stigma,” said Deven Ghelani, founder and chief executive of Policy in Practice.

“With awareness people just don’t know these benefits exist or, if they do know about them, they just immediately assume they won’t qualify.

“Then you’ve got complexity, so being able to complete the form, being able to provide the evidence to be able to claim. Maybe you can do that once but actually you have to do it three, four, five , six, seven times depending on the support you’re potentially eligible for and people just run out of steam.

“Then you’ve got stigma. People are made to feel it’s not for them or they don’t trust the organisation administering that support.”

Although a lot of financial support is going unclaimed, the report does point to progress being made.

More older people are now claiming pension credit, with that number expected to continue to rise.

Some local authorities are reaching 95% of students eligible for free school meals because of better use of data.

Gateway benefits

Government figures show it is forecast to spend £316.1bn in 2025-26 on the social security system in England, Scotland and Wales, accounting for 10.6% of GDP and 23.5% of the total amount the government spends.

Responding to criticism that the benefits bill is already too large, Mr Ghelani said: “The key thing is you can’t rely on the system being too complicated to save money.

“On the one hand you’ve designed these systems to get support to people and then you’re making it hard to claim. That doesn’t make any sense.”

A government spokesperson said: “We’re making sure everyone gets the support they are entitled to by promoting benefits through public campaigns and funding the free Help to Claim service.

“We are also developing skills and opening up opportunities so more people can move into good, secure jobs, while ensuring the welfare system is there for those who need it.”

The advice if you think you might be eligible is to claim, especially for support like pension credit, known as a gateway benefit, which can lead to other financial help for those who are struggling.

Robin, from Greater Manchester, told the BBC that being able to claim pension credit was vital to his finances.

“Pension credit is essential to me to enable me to survive financially,” he said.

[But] because I’m on pension credit I get council tax exemption, I also get free dental treatment, a contribution to my spectacles and I get the warm home discount scheme as well.”



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Jaguar Land Rover suppliers ‘face bankruptcy’ due to hack crisis

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Jaguar Land Rover suppliers ‘face bankruptcy’ due to hack crisis


The past two weeks have been dreadful for Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), and the crisis at the car maker shows no sign of coming to an end.

A cyber attack, which first came to light on 1 September, forced the manufacturer to shut down its computer systems and close production lines worldwide.

Its factories in Solihull, Halewood, and Wolverhampton are expected to remain idle until at least Wednesday, as the company continues to assess the damage.

JLR is thought to have lost at least £50m so far as a result of the stoppage. But experts say the most serious damage is being done to its network of suppliers, many of whom are small and medium sized businesses.

The government is now facing calls for a furlough scheme to be set up, to prevent widespread job losses.

David Bailey, professor of business economics at Aston University, told the BBC: “There’s anywhere up to a quarter of a million people in the supply chain for Jaguar Land Rover.

“So if there’s a knock-on effect from this closure, we could see companies going under and jobs being lost”.

Under normal circumstances, JLR would expect to build more than 1,000 vehicles a day, many of them at its UK plants in Solihull and Halewood. Engines are assembled at its Wolverhampton site. The company also has large car factories in China and Slovakia, as well as a smaller facility in India.

JLR said it closed down its IT networks deliberately in order to protect them from damage. However, because its production and parts supply systems are heavily automated, this meant cars simply could not be built.

Sales were also heavily disrupted, though workarounds have since been put in place to allow dealerships to operate.

Initially, the carmaker seemed relatively confident the issue could be resolved quickly.

Nearly two weeks on, it has become abundantly clear that restarting its computer systems has been a far from simple process. It has already admitted that some data may have been seen or stolen, and it has been working with the National Cyber Security Centre to investigate the incident.

Experts say the cost to JLR itself is likely to be between £5m and £10m per day, meaning it has already lost between £50m and £100m. However, the company made a pre-tax profit of £2.5bn in the year to the end of March, which implies it has the financial muscle to weather a crisis that lasts weeks rather than months.

JLR sits at the top of a pyramid of suppliers, many of whom are highly dependent on the carmaker because it is their main customer.

They include a large number of small and medium-sized firms, which do not have the resources to cope with an extended interruption to their business.

“Some of them will go bust. I would not be at all surprised to see bankruptcies,” says Andy Palmer, a one-time senior executive at Nissan and former boss of Aston Martin.

He believes suppliers will have begun cutting their headcount dramatically in order to keep costs down.

Mr Palmer says: “You hold back in the first week or so of a shutdown. You bear those losses.

“But then, you go into the second week, more information becomes available – then you cut hard. So layoffs are either already happening, or are being planned.”

A boss at one smaller JLR supplier, who preferred not to be named, confirmed his firm had already laid off 40 people, nearly half of its workforce.

Meanwhile, other companies are continuing to tell their employees to remain at home with the hours they are not working to be “banked”, to be offset against holidays or overtime at a later date.

There seems little expectation of a swift return to work.

One employee at a major supplier based in the West Midlands told the BBC they were not expecting to be back on the shop floor until 29 September. Hundreds of staff, they say, had been told to remain at home.

When automotive firms cut back, temporary workers brought in to cover busy periods are usually the first to go.

There is generally a reluctance to get rid of permanent staff, as they often have skills that are difficult to replace. But if cashflow dries up, they may have little choice.

Labour MP Liam Byrne, who chairs the Commons Business and Trade Committee, says this means government help is needed.

“What began in some online systems is now rippling through the supply chain, threatening a cashflow crunch that could turn a short-term shock into long-term harm”, he says.

“We cannot afford to see a cornerstone of our advanced manufacturing base weakened by events beyond its control”.

The trade union Unite has called for a furlough system to be set up to help automotive suppliers. This would involve the government subsidising workers’ pay packets while they are unable to do their jobs, taking the burden off their employers.

“Thousands of these workers in JLR’s supply chain now find their jobs are under an immediate threat because of the cyber attack,” says Unite general secretary, Sharon Graham.

“Ministers need to act fast and introduce a furlough scheme to ensure that vital jobs and skills are not lost while JLR and its supply chain get back on track.”

Business and Trade Minister Chris Bryant said: “We recognise the significant impact this incident has had on JLR and their suppliers, and I know this is a worrying time for those affected.

“I met with the chief executive of JLR yesterday to discuss the impact of the incident. We are also in daily contact with the company and our cyber experts about resolving this issue.”



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AstraZeneca pauses £200m expansion in Cambridge

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AstraZeneca pauses £200m expansion in Cambridge



British drug giant AstraZeneca has paused a planned £200 million expansion of its research site in Cambridge, the company said.

It comes after the pharmaceutical firm abandoned plans to invest £450 million in a vaccine plant in Merseyside earlier this year in a blow to the Government as it seeks to stress its commitment to growing the economy and making the country more attractive to international investors.

An AstraZeneca spokesperson said on Friday: “We constantly reassess the investment needs of our company and can confirm our expansion in Cambridge is paused.

“We have no further comment to make.”

In February, AstraZeneca chief executive Pascal Soriot said he was “very disappointed” in the move to scrap the Merseyside site but that the company “couldn’t make the investment economically viable”.

Mr Soriot denied any rift with the Government over the decision and said Labour had failed to match the previous government’s offer of support.

The cancelling of the plant reversed an announcement made by then-chancellor Jeremy Hunt at last year’s March budget that would have seen the pharmaceutical company expand its existing facility in Speke.

Last month, AstraZeneca announced plans to invest 50 billion dollars (£37 billion) in the US over the next five years amid the looming threat of President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs.

The firm said the investment will fund a new “state-of-the-art” manufacturing facility in Virginia – set to be its largest single manufacturing investment in the world.

It will also expand research and development (R&D) and cell therapy manufacturing in Maryland, Massachusetts, California, Indiana and Texas.



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