We have reached the tipping point of the 2025 NFL season, where some fan bases have playoff aspirations while others are hoping for a high draft pick. So it’s the perfect time to look ahead to the 2026 NFL draft, especially since the college football regular season concluded this past weekend. Let’s project Round 1 picks.

I did my first mock draft for this cycle in August, but a lot has changed since then. We had a handful of trades mix up the first round, as four teams now have multiple Day 1 picks: the Rams (from the Falcons), the Browns (from the Jaguars), the Cowboys (from the Packers) and the Jets (from the Colts). And some teams with rookie quarterbacks — like the Browns, Giants and Saints — might be satisfied enough to not select another quarterback in 2026. Team needs are already shifting.

As we say before every mock draft, it’s important to remember things will change a good deal before the draft gets rolling on April 23. We still have bowl games and predraft events for the prospects, and free agency will shake up NFL teams’ rosters. We don’t even know the real draft order yet; the order below is based on the inverse of the standings through Week 14. But for now, here is where things stand and how I’d project Round 1. (Note: Underclassmen are identified with an asterisk.)

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Projected trade: Jets move up to No. 1

The Giants drafted their quarterback of the future in Jaxson Dart and a building-block pass rusher in Abdul Carter this year, making this a scenario where they would likely field offers to move down if they do end up with the No. 1 pick. The Jets, meanwhile, can make an aggressive move up for a QB; Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and now Brady Cook haven’t stabilized their quarterback situation. The Jets are equipped with more premium draft picks than any other team after their deadline dealings.

In this mock draft trade, the Jets would send both of their first-round picks (Nos. 7 and 18) and a Day 2 pick to the Giants for the top selection.

1. New York Jets (via projected trade with 2-11 NYG)

Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana*

Mendoza has had a remarkable season at Indiana, showing off excellent accuracy and a powerful right arm to pair with much improved pocket awareness and sack avoidance after two seasons at Cal. He leads the FBS with 33 passing touchdowns this season and just handled an extremely tough test against Ohio State, leading Indiana to its first Big Ten Championship since 1967. The Jets are currently 27th in QBR (40.5), needing a long-term answer for coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey to cement themselves within the organization.

Dante Moore, QB, Oregon*

Moore received immense hype after five starts as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023, but 2025 has been his true breakout year. While he has a slender build at 6-foot-3 and 206 pounds, he has shown strong functional mobility and high-level downfield accuracy (third-best completion percentage in the FBS). He has a unique ability to change his arm angles when navigating pressure, too, making him a very creative quarterback overall.

Moore hasn’t made his intentions clear about declaring, but there’s little doubt he would go very high if does enter the 2026 draft. And for the Raiders, it’s clear that Geno Smith is no longer a viable starter; he’s tied for the league lead in interceptions (14) and has the second-lowest QBR (32.5). Moore could be the centerpiece for an offense that already has an elite pass catcher (Brock Bowers) and a potential star running back (Ashton Jeanty).

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Dante Moore scores Oregon’s first TD

Dante Moore rushes for a 1-yard Ducks touchdown.

Arvell Reese, Edge/LB, Ohio State*

The Titans and Giants are the only teams with a better than 5% chance at the No. 1 pick that are not in the QB market (per ESPN’s Football Power Index). But Tennessee is missing the young edge rusher talent that New York likely got in 2025 with Abdul Carter. It can find that here — Reese has a case to be the best overall prospect in this entire draft class.

After just 0.5 sacks as mostly a linebacker last season, he posted 6.5 sacks as a primary edge rusher this year. Reese has exceptional burst and power, plus the frame to be a standout NFL edge rusher. As an every-down player, he would form a perfect pairing next to defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.

Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State*

The Browns will likely have conversations about the quarterback position, but Shedeur Sanders‘ growth in three games as the starter has been encouraging. And in this scenario, the two clear-cut best signal-callers in my rankings are off the board. But the Browns also have work to do within the offensive supporting cast, including at offensive tackle and wide receiver.

Tate is the next first-round lock from the Ohio State receiver room, and he would be awesome in the Cleveland pass game. He has very good size, runs terrific routes and can make contested catches. He would bring a vertical ability, as he averaged 17.5 yards per catch this season. Also of note: Tate has zero drops on 58 targets this season. No Browns wide receiver has reached 40 catches or 500 receiving yards this season. Time for an upgrade.

Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami*

New Orleans has seen promising play from rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and could opt against drafting a top signal-caller, even in the top five. Taking an offensive tackle in the first round for the third straight season might seem odd, but the Saints could move 2024 draftee Taliese Fuaga from right tackle to right guard in this scenario.

Mauigoa has been a three-year starter for Miami, playing all but 13 of his snaps at right tackle over the past three seasons. He has excellent mauling power and size at 6-6, 315 pounds, and he holds up extremely well in pass protection. Mauigoa allowed a pressure on just 0.5% of dropbacks this season, the best of any FBS offensive tackle. The Saints, meanwhile, are 31st in pass block win rate (54.5%).

David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

The Commanders have relied on an extremely veteran group of edge rushers this season, lacking a true difference-maker at the position. Von Miller leads Washington with six sacks at 36 years old. But there’s no better pure rusher in this class than Bailey, who had the second-most sacks (13.5) and pressures (62) in the FBS during his only season at Texas Tech. That makes for a good fit. Bailey’s first step puts offensive tackles on their heels in a hurry, and he has eight forced fumbles over the past two seasons.

Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State*

After trading down from No. 1 in this mock draft, the Giants can hammer away at their needs — and one of them is more playmakers for Dart. The Giants struggled to piece things together on offense without Malik Nabers (torn ACL) for much of this season, and top fill-in receiver Wan’Dale Robinson will be a free agent in March. Tyson brings a package of size, versatility and explosiveness that would pair great next to Nabers. When the ball is in Tyson’s hands, he is tenacious and flexes excellent acceleration. His production dipped this season (711 receiving yards, down from 1,101 in 2024), but he missed three games with a hamstring injury and was without starting quarterback Sam Leavitt for all of November.

Spencer Fano, OT, Utah*

The Cardinals are closer to getting on track than their record indicates, and right tackle is where they could start the process. Jonah Williams has been the team’s preferred right tackle over the past two seasons, but he has played in only 15 games over that span, is currently on injured reserve after shoulder surgery and will be a free agent this offseason. Meanwhile, Fano has surrendered just one sack in two years at Utah. His lighter frame has made some scouts think he could thrive at guard, but Arizona could start him out at right tackle and move him inside if needed. Whether it’s Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett or someone else under center for the Cardinals, they’re going to get better protection.

Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State*

The Rams are in rare territory as a strong Super Bowl contender with a potential top-10 pick in April — thanks to the Falcons. While they have the option to make another move with the pick, they could use it here on one of the best safety prospects in recent memory. Downs is a versatile, tone-setting defender who has the chance to be the first safety picked in the top 10 since Jamal Adams went No. 6 to the Jets in 2017. Downs has played in an NFL scheme at Ohio State for much of his college career; he can handle coverage deep in the middle of the field and be a menacing force in the box. Los Angeles has a ton of young talent up front on its defense, but it might lose players on the back end this offseason. Safety Kam Curl is a free agent in March.

Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami*

Trey Hendrickson and Joseph Ossai (who leads the teams in sacks) are scheduled to be free agents in Cincinnati. The Bengals tried to prepare for this future by taking Shemar Stewart in the first round this year, but he has been a nonfactor. Cincinnati really needs to look at the defense again. The Bengals are allowing 6.3 yards per play, worst in the NFL. While some scouts think Bain’s lack of length could make him a late first-round pick, all of them agree he’s one of the best prospects at his position. I like him in Cincinnati. His relentless, powerful and explosive traits helped him to ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors this season. Expect much more debate around Bain and his ceiling in the coming months, but no offense had a real answer for him at the collegiate level.

Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

A notable need for the Vikings is cornerback, where the team is lacking depth behind Byron Murphy Jr. and Isaiah Rodgers. Enter Delane, who took his game to another level after transferring from Virginia Tech before this season. He has excellent size for the position (6-foot, 190 pounds) and thrives using force at the catch point to disrupt the ball. Delane is at his best playing off coverage and reading the quarterback, though he is also a willing run defender who could thrive in Brian Flores’ aggressive system. When targeted as the primary coverage player this season, he surrendered the third-lowest completion percentage in the FBS (27.8%).

Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn*

The Dolphins need pass-rush help with Bradley Chubb turning 30 this offseason and Jaelan Phillips now on the Eagles (traded on Nov. 3). They’re also currently 21st in pass rush win rate (36.5%). Faulk had seven sacks and a forced fumble last season, with all the measurables of a prototypical NFL edge rusher. He is a fluid mover at 6-6, 285 pounds, and his pass-rush arsenal is developed enough to where scouts believe he should be a high draft pick despite a modest 2025 campaign (2.0 sacks). He can set the edge against the run, too.

Peter Woods, DT, Clemson*

With Travis Jones scheduled for free agency and Nnamdi Madubuike out for the year with a serious neck injury, defensive tackle is an area of need for Baltimore. It’s always wise to look beyond the box score with defensive tackle prospects, and that’s especially the case with Woods. He has only 5.0 sacks in three seasons, but he can create havoc at the line of scrimmage. Woods has the agility and quickness that could allow him to move out to the edge for some snaps as well. His overall length is a question mark for some scouts, as he has sub-32-inch arms and is listed at 6-2. Regardless, he’s a lock in the first round.

Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame*

As Kansas City enters an unusual offseason that will likely start when 14 other teams advance to the playoffs, it’s clear the offense needs another playmaker. The Chiefs’ running backs are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry this season. Is it likely that Love drops to No. 14 to fix that? I have my doubts, but most NFL teams are wary of using a first-round pick at running back when they could address needs at more premium positions. The Chiefs might have some pause after their 2020 selection of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (No. 32) didn’t work out, but Love is too good to pass on here.

He’s an amazingly explosive, agile and balanced runner who effortlessly makes defenders miss (60 forced missed tackles this season on just 199 carries). The Heisman Trophy finalist is also a legitimate threat in the passing game, with 10.4 yards per catch and three receiving touchdowns this season.

Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

The Cowboys have needs on multiple levels of their defense, which is allowing the second-most points per game this season (29.7). They could address linebacker first with Styles, who has made the impressive transition to the position after beginning his collegiate career at safety. He has outstanding length, movement skills and range at the second level. And on top of the coverage skills from his time at safety, Styles can be an effective blitzer when called upon; he had 6.0 sacks during Ohio State’s national title run last season. Styles could thrive in any defensive circumstance for the Cowboys, who just boosted their linebacker room with the return DeMarvion Overshown and addition of Logan Wilson.

CJ Allen, LB, Georgia*

Carolina is still in need of a game-changing edge rusher, but there’s hope for internal development with 2025 draftees Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen. Linebacker, however, is an area where the team’s depth has been tested this season, and I’ve gone back and forth between Styles or Allen as my top player at the position. Allen has the benefit of quarterbacking Georgia’s defense, which has produced a strong lineage of NFL linebackers. He is a missile as a tackler, bringing force and physicality to every aspect of his game. And Allen’s nine pass breakups speak to his ability to impact the passing game as well. The Panthers could benefit from him as a tone-setter in the middle of their defense, especially with Christian Rozeboom on an expiring contract.

Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah*

While most of the picks so far have been to address immediate needs, the Lions could anticipate a future hole by selecting Lomu. Starting left tackle Taylor Decker is already 31 and has two more years on his current deal, so Detroit must be mindful of the position this offseason. Lomu is just steady in virtually every way. He moves fluidly at 6-6, 304 pounds, serving as a gifted striker in the running game and a dependable pass blocker. Lomu did not allow a single sack this season, giving up a measly six pressures.

18. New York Giants (via projected trade with 3-10 NYJ)

Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson*

After our projected trade, the Giants get their second chance to hammer away at needs by addressing cornerback, where Deonte Banks has struggled this season and Cor’Dale Flott will be a free agent. The younger brother of Falcons star cornerback A.J. Terrell Jr., Avieon has some big-time game of his own. He’s on the smaller side at 5-11 and 180 pounds, but he makes up for it with excellent quickness to trigger back to the ball in coverage. He’s also a very capable blitzer and disruptor, recording 3.0 sacks and five forced fumbles this season. The Giants are giving up the ninth-most passing yards per game this season (231.5).

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Clemson’s Avieon Terrell forces a fumble on Bauer Sharp

Avieon Terrell hits Bauer Sharp as he’s falling and Ricardo Jones picks it up for Clemson.

Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon*

With tight end Cade Otton slated to became a free agent in March, the Bucs are potentially thin at the position. Sadiq is one of best prospects in this class in terms of athletic ability, and he has been great after the catch at Oregon. Scouts have questions about Sadiq’s length, but he’s extremely versatile and can make an impact in an NFL offense. He has 40 catches for 490 yards and eight touchdowns in 2025. With aging offensive playmakers in Mike Evans (32) and Chris Godwin Jr. (30 in February), the future of Tampa Bay’s offense could be built around Jalen McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving and Sadiq.

Makai Lemon, WR, USC*

Besides DK Metcalf, the Steelers do not have a receiver that strikes fear into opposing defenses. Pittsburgh is one of two teams with fewer than 100 catches from wide receivers this season (97). Lemon could change that moving forward. The best way I can describe him: certified baller, as his average size (5-11, 195 pounds) hasn’t slowed him down in any way. We are in an era where dominant receivers don’t come exclusively in the form of 6-3, 200-plus pound players with 4.4 speed. Lemon has one of the best catch radiuses I’ve studied over the past three classes, and he has dropped the ball only once in each of his three seasons. It would not shock me if he goes a few spots higher than this in April.

Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee*

The Eagles need to add to their cornerback depth opposite Quinyon Mitchell, and we know Philly is a team that always finds value. This would be a calculated risk, as McCoy did not play at all this season after an ACL tear in January. Some scouts believe he is a top-10 prospect, while others are dubious he will even go in the first round without any tape this season. But his elite skill set was obvious with the Volunteers last season, resulting in four interceptions and nine pass breakups. And the Eagles have taken a chance on injured prospects before, drafting linebacker Jihaad Campbell in April despite some concern over a left shoulder injury.

A’Mauri Washington, DT, Oregon*

While it seems like the NFL’s top scoring defense has it all, Houston’s defensive tackle position could use some youth and depth. Sheldon Rankins is set for free agency in March and Mario Edwards Jr. will turn 32 in January. Washington is becoming one of my favorite prospects to watch, and I expect him to be discussed as a top-20 player in due time. He has just 1.5 career sacks after becoming a full-time starter this year, but he has the quickness, power and length required to ram through offensive linemen in the NFL. His pass-rushing upside would be fascinating in DeMeco Ryans’ defense, where there’s room to work in between Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.

Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&M

Coordinator Dennis Allen’s defense has exceeded expectations with an NFL-high 27 takeaways despite plenty of injuries. But this team needs a spark on the defensive line opposite 29-year-old Montez Sweat. And at this spot, Howell would be the most explosive pass rusher on the board. He stepped into a much larger role for the Aggies this season and thrived, as his 11.5 sacks are tied for fourth most in the FBS. His ability to torque his body and turn a corner tightly is among the best in the class. The Bears are tied for the worst pass rush rate in the NFL (28.6%), so this match makes sense.

Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State*

The Chargers’ offensive line issues have been headlined by injuries to tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, but their healthy interior has also been disappointing. Ioane is my No. 1 guard in this class, as he would help any offensive line get tougher and more physical. He uses his excellent strength to dominate in the running game and he’s also a standout pass protector. Over the past two seasons, Ioane has not allowed a single sack. This season, he has given up just two pressures. Penn State’s offensive scheme also highlighted his ability to get out and play in space, which only strengthens his draft outlook.

Denzel Boston, WR, Washington*

It’s no mystery that the Bills are still looking for a game-altering receiver after Keon Coleman‘s down year and Khalil Shakir‘s inconsistent campaign. Boston has the potential to check that box for Buffalo with his size at 6-4 and alignment versatility. He routinely got the better of defenders in the red zone over the past two seasons, using his frame to snag 19 receiving touchdowns. He was dependable in the big slot role, too, with two drops on 189 targets since 2024. The Bills have 15 attributed drops this season, which is tied for 17th in the NFL.

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Washington’s Denzel Boston scores big TD on fourth down

Denzel Boston’s 13-yard touchdown makes it a one-score game against Oregon.

Caleb Banks, DT, Florida

Simply put, the 49ers need more disruptors on defense. They currently rank dead last in sacks (16), 30th in pass rush win rate (29.3%) and 30th in pressures (111). The injuries to Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams obviously impacted that, but the defensive line could still use more help in 2026. Banks’ evaluation is a little tricky because he logged just 90 snaps in three games this season before fracturing his foot. He has a huge frame, with over 35-inch arms, and generates major shock at the point of attack. Banks is the type of player who could help the 49ers put teams into less-favorable passing situations.

Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama*

When evaluating options for the Browns at No. 4, it came down to wide receiver or offensive tackle. This pick would check off both boxes after they took Tate earlier. Yes, some scouts aren’t convinced that Proctor will hold up against twitchy NFL edge rushers. But there are no doubts about his experience (three years at starting left tackle) and overwhelming power in the running game. After allowing nine sacks as a true freshman, he has surrendered just four over the past two seasons. Cleveland has cycled through multiple options at left tackle because of injuries this season.

Damon Wilson II, Edge, Missouri*

The defensive investment would continue for the Cowboys here via Wilson, who broke out in 2025 after transferring from Georgia. His 9.0 sacks with the Tigers nearly tripled his 3.5 sacks over the first two seasons of his collegiate career. Wilson has very good length, first-step quickness and torque to bend the edge. He also brought it in big games this season, with four sacks against teams ranked in the top 10. After shoring up their interior defensive line by trading for Quinnen Williams, Wilson could be a game changer on the edge for the Cowboys.

Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina*

Seattle is searching for a cornerback to play opposite of Devon Witherspoon, as the team has relied upon Josh Jobe this season and Riq Woolen is in the final year of his rookie deal. Cisse is an ascending corner who showed off impressive man coverage skills after transferring from NC State in the spring. He broke up 10 passes over the past two seasons, allowing a completion percentage under 40% in 2025. He’s extremely comfortable lining up opposite bigger-bodied perimeter wide receivers, which could be asked of him in Mike Macdonald’s defense.

Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

Under coach Mike Vrabel, the Patriots have made such a leap that they don’t have an immediate need to fill if the board falls this way. But the team generally needs more cornerback depth behind All-Pro Christian Gonzalez, as Carlton Davis III will turn 29 in a few weeks. Hood has some areas to clean up with his technique, but there’s an infectious energy that you see every time you watch him play. He posted 10 pass breakups this season — his first with Tennessee after spending one season at Colorado and his freshman year at Auburn. Hood loves the challenge of man coverage and can be an aggressive player in run support.

Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama*

Let’s start by acknowledging that Simpson is no lock to declare for the draft (just 13 starts over his career) and his recent play has been concerning. However, his performances early in the season were strong enough to keep him in the first-round conversation in the right circumstances. This would be exactly that. Since Matthew Stafford is still playing at an MVP level and under contract next season, the Rams would likely not need Simpson to play at all in 2026. That would give him time to develop — and there’s perhaps no better quarterback tutor in the game than coach Sean McVay.

Simpson has nifty in-pocket movement, the ability to be an accurate passer and a strong arm when he can set his platform. Given their extra first-round pick, the Rams can afford to take a chance on their quarterback of the future.

Chris Bell, WR, Louisville

For the second straight offseason, there might not be a roster with fewer glaring needs than the Broncos, who are currently on a 10-game winning streak with second-year quarterback Bo Nix. Is another wide receiver a must? No, but it couldn’t hurt to have another inexpensive option behind Courtland Sutton. At 6-2, 220 pounds, Bell has some of the best size of any of the touted receivers in this class. He was scorching hot in the first six games of this season, with six touchdowns and three 100-plus-yard games. He did not score or reach 80 yards in any of his final six games of the regular season, but he still displayed uncommon power and burst for a player of his stature.

Update: On Wednesday night, it was reported that Bell suffered a torn ACL and is set to have surgery this week, likely keeping him out of the first round.

Pakistan Army widened their lead at the 35th National Games on Thursday after sweeping 31 gold medals in athletics, swimming and multiple team sports.

At the conclusion of the pulsating day, Pakistan Army remained at the summit of the medal standings with 144 gold medals, coupled with 72 silver and 42 bronze.

The Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda) remained second in standings despite their gold medal tally increasing by 15 to 61, followed by Pakistan Navy in third with 28 top honours.

Pakistan Army also clinched the general trophy in women’s swimming earlier today, courtesy of Olympian Jehanara Nabi, who bagged five individual and three team gold medals during the 35th National Games.

The department won the discipline with utmost dominance, bagging 12 gold medals, eight more than second-placed Sindh, which could claim four.

Among provinces, Punjab lead the medal race, with 10 golds and 84 overall medals, closely followed by host Sindh, who have five top honours to their name.

For the unversed, the 35th National Games features 14 teams, comprising departments and provinces, including hosts Sindh, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, Islamabad, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan, alongside Pakistan Army, Pakistan Air Force, Pakistan Navy, WAPDA, Pakistan Police and Higher Education Commission (HEC).

It is pertinent to mention that the ongoing 35th National Games will run until December 13 and will conclude with a star-studded closing ceremony at the National Bank Stadium here, which is expected to be graced by Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif.

Matchday 5 of this season’s UEFA Women’s Champions League league phase is in the books and there are plenty of talking points beginning to crop up.

Tuesday saw Juventus thrash St Polten 5-0, before Arsenal beat FC Twente 1-0, Real Madrid saw off VfL Wolfsburg 2-0, and Paris Saint-Germain were knocked out after only managing a 0-0 draw with Oud-Heverlee Leuven.

On Wednesday, OL Lyonnes made light work of Manchester United to beat them 3-0, while Chelsea hit six past cellar-dwelling Roma.

Elsewhere, Bayern Munich held Atletico Madrid 2-2 and Paris FC beat Valerenga 1-0, but it’s Barcelona that remain top of the table after a 3-1 win over Benfica and — for now — favorites for the title.

Read on as ESPN experts Emily Keogh, Yash Thakur and Sam Marsden offer their thoughts on some of our burning questions.

– UWCL permutations: Who has qualified? What’s left?
– Hamilton: Man Utd’s UWCL ambitions tempered by OL Lyonnes’ brilliance
– Keogh: Wasteful Wolfsburg allow Madrid to join UWCL contenders
– As it happened: OL Lyonnes beat Man United, Chelsea roll past Roma

Q1: Who will take the final two places in the top 4?

Keogh: With goalkeeper Stina Johannes a possible doubt after taking a boot to the face against Real Madrid, and their current lack of clinical finishing and poor final touch in front of goal, I am not convinced VfL Wolfsburg will have enough in the tank to defeat Chelsea. That’s especially true after the Blues’ recent loss to Everton in the WSL sparked them into a ruthless performance against Roma on Wednesday — so I think Chelsea will claim third place.

Bayern Munich or Real Madrid are realistically best placed to clinch fourth, while Juventus will face a wounded Manchester United. A draw feels likely between the two teams, who have been pretty evenly matched thus far. Bayern and Madrid both have fairly easy draws against minnows in comparison to their history and financial backing so, assuming they both claim three points, I think Madrid will sneak in with their goal difference already significantly higher than Bayern’s.

Thakur: I feel Real Madrid are one of the best positioned teams to take one of the spots after their win against Wolfsburg this week. With a final game against FC Twente remaining, Las Blancas will feel confident of securing another three points. Linda Caicedo and Caroline Weir are back to their best and have carried the side on their backs again. After a 6-0 win this matchday, Chelsea are the other likely contender for the final two spots. Despite a tricky fixture against former European champions Wolfsburg, Sonia Bompastor’s side will feel confident. However, the last time these two sides met in the UWCL, the She-Wolves beat Chelsea 4-0 and knocked them out of the group stage in 2021-22.

Marsden: Chelsea, with 11 points, are in pole position behind Barcelona and OL Lyonnes, but they have the hardest game of the teams in the chasing pack. If they fail to win away at Wolfsburg, Juventus, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, all on 10 points, are waiting to pounce. A Wolfsburg win could even propel them into the top four, so it’s all to play for when it comes to claiming a direct spot in the quarterfinals.

Given Wolfsburg are still in the running, I’m going to pick them to frustrate Chelsea, Juve to fail to beat Manchester United at home, and Madrid and Bayern to sneak into the top four. They have the most winnable games on paper — Madrid at Twente and Bayern at home to Vålerenga — but do need other results to go their way.

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How Wolfsburg can recover from Real Madrid loss

VfL Wolfsburg striker Lineth Beerensteyn discusses what she thinks her team need to comeback stronger after UEFA Women’s Champions League loss.

Q2: Bayern have really turned things around since that mauling by Barcelona. What’s been the catalyst?

Marsden: A shout out to coach José Barcala and the belief demonstrated by the Bayern players to bounce back from that 7-1 Barça humbling on matchday one, but it certainly helps when you have the quality of Klara Bühl and Pernille Harder. Harder has scored big goals in big moments, including two more against Atlético this week, but Bühl has been sensational when it comes to driving her team on. With seven assists and one goal, she has more goal contributions than anyone else in the league phase. She has created a whopping 27 chances in five games, 10 more than Lyon’s Melchie Dumornay, who ranks second in chance creation in the competition. If Bayern are going to go far in this competition, it’s going to be at the feet of Bühl.

Keogh: Realistically, the only way Bayern could have responded to that humbling defeat at the hands of Barcelona was by going on an extended unbeaten run. That crushing loss served as a wake-up call; none of those players would ever want to experience a performance or the emotions that came with it again. In many ways, it jolted them into gear. Since then, individual performances have risen sharply, and the result has been a noticeably improved team as a whole. Their press has become far more cohesive and organized, and their patience, something evident in both meetings with Arsenal last season and this one, has allowed them to withstand pressure with real resilience and grind out results. In the past, Bayern might have crumbled in those moments, so this shift in approach and mentality is clearly paying off.

Thakur: I feel Bayern Munich and Barcala had the worst audition at the European stage that belied their true level. The club have since gone on a 13-game unbeaten run, including 12 straight wins until the draw on Wednesday. Barcala’s approach forces them to be slightly braver on the ball and aggressive off it. This urge to play vertical and press high can leave the side exposed in moments. Against Barcelona, all such moments were punished and the team lost morale as the game went on. Since then, the Bavarian giants have put their squad depth — especially in attacking areas — to great use. Bühl’s otherworldly form has quite literally been the difference maker on multiple occasions. The Germany winger has been involved in 46% of Bayern’s goals this season, creating 20 goals before mid-December.

Q3: Did you expect Juventus to be so good, and Paris Saint-Germain so bad?

Thakur: I feel Juventus and Paris Saint-Germain are two sides of the same coin. The two teams are closer in their performances than the table might suggest. One team has had the lion’s share of the fortune compared to the other. Juventus have scored 11 non-penalty goals from a non-penalty expected goals (npxG) value of 7.7 while PSG have three goals from a npxG of 8.1. The Parisian club have conceded 11 times as compared to Juventus’ seven, despite both clubs conceding the same xG so far (6.9). Juve had some freakish moments, especially in the 3-3 draw with OL Lyonnes, where everything they tried turned to gold before the opponents came back. Unfortunately, PSG haven’t had that luxury this campaign.

Marsden: Yash is right, the points difference between Juve and PSG is not completely representative of how matches have always gone, but I also want to take this chance to gloat about suggesting Italy‘s success in reaching the semifinals at the European Championship last summer could propel Juve on in the Champions League this season. Eight members of that Italy squad played for Juve, who have an experienced squad and will be eyeing a quarterfinal spot at the least. As for PSG, however fine the margins have been, it’s unacceptable to only have one point from five games. I did not expect them to be exiting the competition after the league phase — and certainly not with one game to spare.

Keogh: PSG are probably finally feeling the real repercussions of having their talent pool drained summer after summer by French rivals OL Lyonnes. It has been a conveyor belt of top players moving from one teams to the other, and while OL Lyonnes have continued to strengthen, PSG have unmistakably regressed. That doesn’t excuse their frankly unforgivable performances, but when you compare last season’s squad to the one that they have now, the gaps are obvious. And they go a long way toward explaining why this season has unravelled so badly.

As for Juventus, they’ve grown steadily, keeping pace with the evolution of the women’s game without trying to accelerate too quickly, and that patience has paid off. As Sam mentioned, Italy’s Euro 2025 campaign has also boosted development, investment, and overall player quality. On top of that, Juve’s smart summer business has ensured they remain competitive. They have assessed the conditions of each of their games well and adapted quickly, which has led to their current standing.

Q4: How impressive have Oud-Heverlee Leuven been this tournament?

Keogh: Reaching the knockout stages in their first-ever European campaign would be an extraordinary achievement, especially for a club that had never even reached the qualifiers before this season. I’m a sucker for a fairytale, and I can’t help but hope Leuven complete theirs by making it to the playoffs. It isn’t always about the results. They may not beat Arsenal, yet they’ve already exceeded all expectations with a win and three draws.

In truth, they probably would have been delighted simply to experience their first European adventure, however condescending that might sound from the outside. Perhaps having nothing to lose and an opportunity to shake up the competition without any real expectations is what has aided their impressive run. Having spent a lot of time researching the club, I can say the project behind their rise is genuinely impressive. And the core group of fans who have been with them every step of the way has made the journey even more special. Their support for the minnows of the competition is what makes this story so heartwarming.

Thakur: Mighty impressive. The debutants from Belgium have been the surprise package with just one loss in five games. They have made themselves a difficult side to score against, conceding just seven times so far. They even managed to keep the mighty Barcelona out for almost the entirety of the first half. Belgian goalkeeper Lowiese Seynhaeve has been a standout performer. She made 11 and 14 saves against Roma and Barcelona respectively and made another six against PSG this matchday. Her spectacular shot stopping skills have saved their blushes on multiple occasions. Unless Valerenga — without star striker Karina Saevik — upset Bayern in their final game, the Belgium side have all-but secured their place in the top 12, irrespective of their result against Arsenal in the final matchday.

Marsden: With Christmas coming, shall I play Scrooge? Leuven look set to reach the knockout round and that will be a remarkable and unexpected feat, but hindsight does put a slightly different gloss on their performances. Apart from Barcelona, who they lost to, they haven’t played anyone higher than 10th in the standings. Three of their five matches have been against teams who have already been eliminated in PSG, Twente and Roma. Of course, reaching this stage with just one defeat so far is impressive. They should make the next round now — save defeat to Arsenal next week and an unlikely Vålerenga win at Bayern — but it’s hard to see them causing any major upsets.