Tech
Boom or bubble: How long can the AI investment craze last?
The staggering investments in artificial intelligence keep coming: Last week, AI chip giant Nvidia announced it would invest $100 billion to help OpenAI, the frontrunner in generative AI, build data centers.
How are these enormous sums possible when the returns on investments, at least for now, pale in comparison?
Huge investments
AI-related spending is soaring worldwide, expected to reach approximately $1.5 trillion by 2025, according to US research firm Gartner, and over $2 trillion in 2026—nearly 2% of global GDP.
Even though tangible returns fall short of the investments going in, the AI revolution appears unstoppable.
“There’s no doubt among investors that AI is the major breakthrough technology”—on par with harnessing electricity, said Denis Barrier, head of investment fund Cathay Innovation.
Silicon Valley’s mindset “is more about seizing the opportunity” than worrying about any risks, he said.
Geopolitical tensions are helping drive the frenzy, primarily to build massive data centers housing tens of thousands of expensive chips that require phenomenal electrical power and large-scale, energy-hungry cooling.
From 2013 to 2024, private AI investment reached $470 billion in the United States—nearly a quarter in the last year alone—followed by superpower rival China’s $119 billion, according to a Stanford University report.
Just a handful of giants are on the receiving end, with OpenAI first in line.
In March 2025, ChatGPT’s parent company raised approximately $40 billion, bringing its estimated valuation to around $300 billion, according to analysts.
‘Circular funding’
OpenAI is now the world’s most valuable company, surpassing SpaceX, worth $500 billion in a deal for employees to sell a limited number of shares.
The company led by CEO Sam Altman sits at the center of an AI investment bonanza: It oversees the Stargate project, which has secured $400 billion of the $500 billion planned by 2029 for Texas data centers spanning an area the size of Manhattan.
The White House-backed consortium includes Softbank, Oracle, Microsoft and Nvidia.
Nvidia, which completed over 50 venture capital deals in 2024 according to PitchBook data, is often chided for practicing “circular funding”—investing in startups that use the funds to buy its chips.
Some analysts criticize this as bubble-fueling behavior.
The OpenAI deal “will likely fuel those concerns,” said Stacy Rasgon, a Bernstein Research analyst.
In the first six months of 2025, OpenAI pulled in around $4.3 billion in revenue, specialist outlet The Information reported this week.
Therefore, unlike Meta or Google with substantial cash reserves, OpenAI and competitors like Anthropic or Mistral must be creative in their search for funds to bridge the gap.
For AI believers, an explosion in revenue is only a matter of time for a company whose ChatGPT assistant serves 700 million people—reaching nearly 9% of humanity less than three years after launch.
‘Up in smoke’
Nothing is certain, however.
Feeding AI’s computing appetite will cost up to $500 billion annually in global data center investments through 2030, requiring $2 trillion in annual revenues to make the expenses viable, according to consulting firm Bain & Company.
Even under optimistic assumptions, Bain estimates the AI industry faces an $800 billion deficit.
OpenAI itself plans to spend over $100 billion by 2029—meaning turning a profit is still a ways off.
On the energy front, AI’s global computing footprint could reach 200 gigawatts by 2030—the annual equivalent of Brazil’s electric consumption—half of that in the United States.
Despite the daunting figures, many analysts remain optimistic.
“Even with concerns about a possible ‘AI bubble’… we estimate the sector is in its 1996” moment during the internet boom, “absolutely not its 1999” before that bubble burst, said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst.
Long-term, “many dollars will go up in smoke, and there will be many losers, like during the internet bubble, but the internet remained,” said the Silicon Valley investor.
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Tech
The 5 Big ‘Known Unknowns’ of Donald Trump’s New War With Iran
More recently, Iran has been a regular adversary in cyberspace—and while it hasn’t demonstrated quite the acuity of Russia or China, Iran is “good at finding ways to maximize the impact of their capabilities,” says Jeff Greene, the former executive assistant director of cybersecurity at CISA. Iran, in particular, famously was responsible for a series of distributed-denial-of-service attacks on Wall Street institutions that worried financial markets, and its 2012 attack on Saudi Aramco and Qatar’s Rasgas marked some of the earliest destructive infrastructure cyberattacks.
Today, surely, Iran is weighing which of these tools, networks, and operatives it might press into a response—and where, exactly, that response might come. Given its history of terror campaigns and cyberattacks, there’s no reason to think that Iran’s retaliatory options are limited to missiles alone—or even to the Middle East at all.
Which leads to the biggest known unknown of all:
5. How does this end? There’s an apocryphal story about a 1970s conversation between Henry Kissinger and a Chinese leader—it’s told variously as either Mao-Tse Tung or Zhou Enlai. Asked about the legacy of the French revolution, the Chinese leader quipped, “Too soon to tell.” The story almost surely didn’t happen, but it’s useful in speaking to a larger truth particularly in societies as old as the 2,500-year-old Persian empire: History has a long tail.
As much as Trump (and the world) might hope that democracy breaks out in Iran this spring, the CIA’s official assessment in February was that if Khamenei was killed, he would be likely replaced with hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. And indeed, the fact that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against other targets in the Middle East continued throughout Saturday, even after the death of many senior regime officials—including, purportedly, the defense minister—belied the hope that the government was close to collapse.
The post-World War II history of Iran has surely hinged on three moments and its intersections with American foreign policy—the 1953 CIA coup, the 1979 revolution that removed the shah, and now the 2026 US attacks that have killed its supreme leader. In his recent bestselling book King of Kings, on the fall of the shah, longtime foreign correspondent Scott Anderson writes of 1979, “If one were to make a list of that small handful of revolutions that spurred change on a truly global scale in the modern era, that caused a paradigm shift in the way the world works, to the American, French, and Russian Revolutions might be added the Iranian.”
It is hard not to think today that we are living through a moment equally important in ways that we cannot yet fathom or imagine—and that we should be especially wary of any premature celebration or declarations of success given just how far-reaching Iran’s past turmoils have been.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has repeatedly bragged about how he sees the military and Trump administration’s foreign policy as sending a message to America’s adversaries: “F-A-F-O,” playing off the vulgar colloquialism. Now, though, it’s the US doing the “F-A” portion in the skies over Iran—and the long arc of Iran’s history tells us that we’re a long, long way from the “F-O” part where we understand the consequences.
Let us know what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor at mail@wired.com.
Tech
This Backyard Smoker Delivers Results Even a Pitmaster Would Approve Of
While my love of smoked meats is well-documented, my own journey into actually tending the fire started just last spring when I jumped at the opportunity to review the Traeger Woodridge Pro. When Recteq came calling with a similar offer to check out the Flagship 1600, I figured it would be a good way to stay warm all winter.
While the two smokers have a lot in common, the Recteq definitely feels like an upgrade from the Traeger I’ve been using. Not only does it have nearly twice the cooking space, but the huge pellet hopper, rounded barrel, and proper smokestack help me feel like a real pitmaster.
The trade-off is losing some of the usability features that make the Woodridge Pro a great first smoker. The setup isn’t as quite as simple, and the larger footprint and less ergonomic conditions require a little more experience or patience. With both options, excellent smoked meat is just a few button presses away, but speaking as someone with both in their backyard, I’ve been firing up the Recteq more often.
Getting Settled
Photograph: Brad Bourque
Setting up the Recteq wasn’t as time-consuming as the Woodridge, but it was more difficult to manage on my own. Some of the steps, like attaching the bull horns to the lid, or flipping the barrel onto its stand, would really benefit from a patient friend or loved one. Like most smokers, you’ll need to run a burn-in cycle at 400 degrees Fahrenheit to make sure there’s nothing left over from manufacturing or shipping. Given the amount of setup time and need to cool down the smoker after, I would recommend setting this up Friday afternoon if you want to smoke on a Saturday.
Tech
Make the Most of Chrome’s Toolbar by Customizing It to Your Liking
The main job of Google Chrome is to give you a window to the web. With so much engaging content out there on the internet, you may not have given much thought to the browser framework that serves as the container for the sites you visit.
You’d be forgiven for still using the default toolbar configuration that was in place when you first installed Chrome. But if you take a few minutes to customize it, it can make a significant difference to your browsing. You can get quicker access to the key features you need, and you may even discover features you didn’t know about.
If you’re reading this in Chrome on the desktop, you can experiment with a few customizations right now—all it takes is a few clicks. Here’s how the toolbar in Chrome is put together, and all the different changes you can make.
The Default Layout
Take a look up at the top right corner of your Chrome browser tab and you’ll see two key buttons: One reveals your browser extensions (the jigsaw piece), and the other opens up your bookmarks (the double-star icon). There should also be a button showing a downward arrow, which gives you access to recently downloaded files.
Right away, you can start customizing. If you click the jigsaw piece icon to show your browser extensions, you can also click the pin button next to any one of these extensions to make it permanently visible on the toolbar. While you don’t want your toolbar to become too cluttered, it means you can put your most-used add-ons within easy reach.
For the extension icons you choose to have on the toolbar, you can choose the way they’re arranged, too: Click and drag on any of the icons to change its position (though the extensions panel itself has to stay in the same place). To remove an extension icon (without uninstalling the extension), right-click on it and choose Unpin.
Making Changes
Click the three dots up in the top right corner of any browser window and then Settings > Appearance > Customize your toolbar to get to the main toolbar customization panel, which has recently been revamped. Straight away you’ll see toggle switches that let you show or hide certain buttons on the toolbar.
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