Business
Gold price prediction today: Where is gold rate headed this week as US Fed meeting in focus? Here’s the outlook – The Times of India
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are expected to react to the US Federal Reserve policy this week. Maneesh Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers shares his views and recommendations for gold investors:Last week saw a blend of inflation trends & political interference which involved Fed independence risk created a wave of uncertainty, boosting safe haven appeal for gold as it continued to hit record highs.In the US, mixed inflation data, cooling labour markets, and weakening consumer sentiment kept expectations of a Fed rate cut in place. In Europe, political instability in France added to economic pressure, while the ECB held rates steady. China grappled with deflationary pressures & Japan prepared for snap elections. Other asset classes included, global equity markets ending the week higher, while US Treasury yields, & the US dollar weakened, while oil prices edged up. Gold recorded repeated all-time highs edging near to $ 3,700 per oz in the current week. Gold ETF investors continued to be heavy buyers continuing their purchase for third consecutive months with net holdings rising steadily. led by Western funds. (YTD Inflows: 472.7 tonnes inflows. Vs 6.8 tonnes outflows in 2024).In India, Gold ETFs recorded inflows of Rs 2,190 crore in August, the largest since January’s Rs. 3,751 crores. Global central banks now own more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a substantial shift in their foreign exchange holdings. Gold has already surpassed the euro as the second most important reserve asset after the US dollar. Adjusting for over four decades of inflation the spot price of gold, also surpassed its inflation adjusted peak of $ 850 set on January 21, 1980 which comes to around $3590 per oz.
Gold Price Outlook
The current week remains most crucial for gold as the US Fed may announce its monetary policy on September 17, midnight. It is widely expected that the central bank may go ahead to slash its interest rates by 25 bps, as a slight possibility of a 50 bp cut also exists. Overall possibility of 3 rate cuts persists by the end of the year. Having said that, a summary of economic projections which includes projections on interest rate cuts to be released by the US Fed during the meeting remains crucial to be assessed for further direction in precious metal prices. Overall, a likely hawkish cut could bring in profit booking moves in prices. However, chances of any major correction lower remains’ limited, as the US labour market shows signs of weakening, where major supports lie at around $ 3620 – 3570 zone (CMP $ 3685). On the higher side, prices could turn volatile in the coming session post release of Fed statement as strong upside barriers could persist at around $ 3,720 – 3,750 per oz in spot. This could translate to a level of Rs. 1,12,000 – 1,12,500 // 10 gm on MCX futures contract on a higher side on a weekly basis.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Stock prices in London closed mostly higher on Friday, in light of lower-than-expected US inflation the day before.
The US consumer price index rose by 2.7% in November from a year before, slowing from 3.0% annual inflation in September. Market consensus cited by FXStreet had expected inflation to increase to 3.1% in November.
“The knife-edge nature of yesterday’s rate decision by the Bank of England is keeping UK stocks in check and stalled the FTSE 100’s push towards the 10,000 mark,” said AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson. “Investors have responded to the reality that we could be approaching the end of the current rate-cutting cycle.”
She continued: “Across the Atlantic, the sharply lower-than-anticipated CPI reading in the US suggests the Federal Reserve might have more scope for rate cuts next year.”
The FTSE 100 index closed up 59.65 points, 0.6%, at 9,897.42. The FTSE 250 ended down 12.88 points, 0.1%, at 22,312.71, and the AIM All-Share closed up 1.03 points, 0.1%, at 757.39.
On the FTSE 100, Anglo American edged up 0.4% after reporting that it was striving to wrap up the sale of its nickel business and that it had restarted efforts to dispose of its remaining coal operation.
The London-based diversified miner previously suffered a setback, after Peabody Energy abruptly ended its bid to acquire Anglo American’s steelmaking coal assets in Australia.
Anglo American said on Friday it has reinitiated a formal process to sell the remaining steelmaking coal business.
The miner also said it is working to finalise the last regulatory approval with the European Commission required to complete the transaction, first announced in February this year.
Carnival, on the FTSE 250, jumped 17%.
The Florida-based cruise operator’s pre-tax profit jumped 45% to a “record” 2.77 billion dollars in the financial year ended November 30, from 1.92 billion dollars a year ago. Revenue climbed 6.4% to 26.62 billion dollars, also a record, from 25.02 billion dollars, with passenger ticket revenue growing 5.8% to 17.42 billion dollars.
Carnival also announced the reinstatement of dividends, declaring a quarterly payout of 15 US cents.
For the full year 2026, the company expects adjusted net income to grow by 12%.
In small caps, Seraphim Space rose 8.8%.
The space technology-focused investor’s largest holding, ICEYE, has won a 1.7 billion euro deal through a joint venture with arms firm Rheinmetall AG. The JV will provide the German armed forces with radar services.
On AIM, Revel Collective plunged 74%.
The bar and pub company said that “a number of credible parties” were in talks with the firm to potentially acquire the businesses it operates, but it warned that any deal is unlikely to return any value to shareholders.
Caledonia Mining rose 11%.
The Zimbabwe-focused gold miner has “welcomed” revised provisions announced by the Zimbabwean government on the gold mining sector.
A proposal to up a royalty rate to 10% from 5% will now only apply if the bullion price tops 5,000 dollars an ounce, and not 2,500 dollars. Also, a proposed tax change on capital expenditure treatment has been withdrawn.
Caledonia said that so long as the gold price remains below 5,000, dollars there will be no change to its financial outlook.
In European equities on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed up 0.3%, while the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended up 0.3%.
The pound was quoted at 1.3373 dollars at the time of the London equities close on Friday, lower compared with 1.3387 dollars on Thursday. The euro stood at 1.1715 dollars, lower against 1.1730 dollars. Against the yen, the dollar was trading higher at 157.46 yen compared with 155.46 yen.
Stocks in New York were higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.6%, the S&P 500 index up 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.8%.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.14%, widening from 4.11%. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was quoted at 4.82%, widening from 4.79%.
Brent oil was quoted at 60.16 dollars a barrel at the time of the London equities close on Friday, down from 60.23 dollars late Thursday.
Gold was quoted lower at 4,348.80 dollars an ounce, against 4,370.61 dollars on Thursday.
The biggest risers on the FTSE 100 were Endeavour Mining, up 120.00p at 3,910.00p, Rolls-Royce, up 26.00p at 1,170.00p, DCC, up 103.52p at 5,019.52p, Melrose Industries, up 11.20p at 576.60p, and Spirax, up 120.00p at 6,850.00p.
The biggest fallers on the FTSE 100 were Barratt Redrow, down 10.16p at 368.64p, Persimmon, down 32.00p at 1,317.00p, JD Sports Fashion, down 2.05p at 84.63p, Berkeley Group, down 70.00p at 3,884.00p, and Marks & Spencer, down 5.50p at 326.60p.
On Monday’s economic calendar, the UK releases current account and gross domestic product data.
On Monday’s UK corporate calendar, no significant events are scheduled.
– Contributed by Alliance News
High home prices, stubbornly high mortgage rates and now less supply are all weighing on potential homebuyers.
Sales of previously owned homes rose just 0.5% in November from October and were 1% lower than November 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales came in at an annualized rate of 4.13 million units.
This count is based on closings, so it reflects contracts likely signed in September and October, when mortgage rates initially came down slightly but then stayed in a tight range.
Supply, which had been gaining for much of this year, fell in November. There were 1.43 million homes for sale at the end of the month, down 5.9% from October but up 7.5% year over year, according to the association. At the current sales pace, that represents a 4.2-month supply. A six-month supply is considered balanced between buyer and seller.
“Inventory growth is beginning to stall,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said in a release. “With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.”
Sellers who were on the market also began to delist their properties at a higher rate than usual. Sellers often take unsold homes off the market heading into winter, but that dynamic was much stronger this year.
And that is keeping pressure on home prices. The median price of a home sold in November was $409,200, an increase of 1.2% from November 2024, and the highest November reading on record. The Realtors use a median measurement, which can skew to what end of the market is selling most. The high end is currently doing much better than the low end. Sales of homes priced in the $100,000 to $250,000 range were down nearly 8% from a year ago, while homes priced at more than $1 million were up 1.4%.
“Wage growth is outpacing home price gains, which improves housing affordability. Still, future affordability could be hampered if housing supply fails to keep pace with demand,” Yun said.
Homes are staying on the market longer, at 36 days compared with 32 days last November. First-time homebuyers made up 30% of sales, unchanged from a year ago, but historically they make up about 40%. Investors stepped back into the market, making up 18% of transactions, up from 13% in November 2024.
Business
US monetary policy: Fed’s official sees no urgency for further rate cuts, flags distorted inflation data – The Times of India
A senior US Federal Reserve official has said there is no immediate need to cut interest rates further, cautioning that recent inflation data may have been distorted due to disruptions in data collection during the federal government shutdown, AFP reported.Speaking to CNBC on Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said inflation readings for recent months were likely affected because government agencies were unable to collect price data in October and the first half of November amid the record-long shutdown.“Because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the consumer price index reading probably by a tenth or so,” Williams said, adding that it was difficult to precisely quantify the impact.He said inflation data for December could provide a clearer picture of the extent of the distortion.Williams’ remarks followed the release of a delayed US consumer price index report earlier this week, which showed inflation easing to 2.7 per cent in November from 3 per cent in September. Several economists had warned that the figures may not fully reflect underlying price pressures.Some analysts pointed out that a higher share of price quotes may have been collected during the Black Friday discount period, potentially biasing the data downward — a concern Williams echoed.Asked how the latest data influenced his outlook on interest rates, Williams said the Fed’s policy stance was appropriate for now.“I don’t personally have a sense of urgency to need to act further on monetary policy right now,” he said, adding that the rate cuts already delivered had positioned policymakers well.The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times this year as the labour market weakened, but has signalled a higher threshold for additional easing. The central bank’s next policy meeting is scheduled for late January.
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