Business
Hollywood has a box office problem: The old movie sequel trick is falling flat
Moviegoers will find a wealth of familiar franchises on the big screen this year. It may not be enough to save the box office.
New entrants from popular film series dominate the movie slate in the next 12 months. The 2026 schedule features releases from Star Wars, Marvel, DC Comics, Toy Story, Super Mario Bros., Hunger Games, Scream, Scary Movie, Minions, Dune and Jumanji.
Intellectual property like these established franchises has long been an important part of Hollywood, but they are increasingly vital in 2026 as the theatrical industry seeks to break the $10 billion mark at the domestic box office for the first time since the pandemic.
But some big-name installments aren’t drawing the crowds they used to, and industry insiders worry the $10 billion benchmark may be beyond reach this year for a post-pandemic industry that has been rocked by production shutdowns, the consolidation of major studios and a shift in consumer viewing toward streaming.
“The reliance on franchises has been a little trickier the last few years,” said Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research for Wedbush. “Yes, there’s a level of certainty … but it’s not a home run. It’s never going to be a home run from here on out, because people are pickier than they used to be. They know what’s coming. Word of mouth means more than ever.”
Since 2010, the top 10 highest-grossing films domestically have predominantly been franchise films, according to data from Comscore. During that time, between eight and 10 of the films released each year were a sequel, prequel or remake. The only outlier was 2020, when seven of the top 10 films were franchise based, due to the number of films that were delayed during Covid shutdowns.
And, of course, a number of the original titles that broke into the top 10 have become franchises themselves in the last two decades. Look at “Avatar,” “Frozen,” “Zootopia,” “Inside Out,” “Secret Life of Pets” and “Ted.”
“Studios clearly feel that audience comfortability — with going to see a movie where they already, in some sense, know what they’re getting before they walk into the auditorium — is a bet worth making,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore.
As studios lean into the safety of a built-in audience, box-office sales become more reliant on the success of these franchise films.
Before the pandemic, during the span of 2010 to 2019, top 10 films represented an average of 30% of the total domestic box office annually. Outpacing the group was the 2019 calendar where these films accounted for nearly 40% of the annual haul. All 10 films that year were IP-driven, and nine of them generated more than $1 billion globally.
Post-pandemic, the average percentage that the top 10 films represent of the total annual domestic box office is 44%.
“I remember having this conversation the late ’90s,” said Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners. “The box office has for the last several decades been franchise-driven. That’s just the way it is. Why? It’s because when there’s familiarity with content, there’s a greater chance that people will show up because there’s an affinity towards a particular franchise and it’s already known.”
Now, Hollywood is facing the harsh reality of what happens when franchises fall flat.
Great expectations
Two of the most anticipated films to hit theaters last year — Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Disney’s “Avatar: Fire and Ash” — underperformed expectations.
The first “Wicked” movie, released in 2024, tallied $475 million at the domestical box office and a little more than $750 million globally during its run in theaters. A year later, the second part of the duology collected just under $350 million from the U.S. and Canada and about $525 million globally.
Box-office analysts attributed the smaller ticket sales to a drop in quality between the first and second installments. “Wicked” generated an 88% “Fresh” rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, while “Wicked: For Good” scored a 66% rating.
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” had even bigger shoes to fill. James Cameron’s breakout hit “Avatar,” released in 2009, snared $785.2 million domestically and $2.1 billion internationally. It remains the highest-grossing film of all time at the box office with $2.9 billion in ticket sales.
More than a decade later, “Avatar: The Way of Water” hit theaters, generating $688.8 million domestically and $1.6 billion internationally, bringing its total haul to $2.3 billion.
But when “Fire and Ash” hit theaters in December, consumer demand wasn’t nearly as high and the allure of Cameron’s groundbreaking filming techniques had worn off. “Fire and Ash,” which is still playing in theaters, has tallied just $378.5 million domestically and passed $1 billion internationally as of Sunday.
Wedbush’s Reese said part of the problem can be trying to mine too much from any one franchise.
Take, for example, Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. The film franchise has been a box-office darling for nearly two decades, but struggled in the wake of the climactic “Avengers: Endgame” in 2019 to produce consistent quality sequels. At the same time, it flooded the streaming market with a dozen new television series.
“If you try to stretch it too thin and you don’t put the same level of attention to details then it’s not going to work,” Reese said.
There’s also risk in trying to broaden a niche interest into a global success, she said. Do filmmakers stay close to the original IP and play to its base, or do they shoot for a wider audience and a bigger splash?
Sandworms emerge on the desert planet Arrakis in Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two.”
Warner Bros. | Legendary Entertainment
Reese noted Warner Bros.’ new Dune franchise, starring Timothée Chalamet and directed by Denis Villeneuve, is a good example of a series that’s threaded the needle, landing with fans who already loved the books at the same time that it drew in new crowds.
“If it’s a good film, it’ll service that core audience and it might bring in some newbies and have that broader appeal,” Reese said. “But, if you try to get that broad appeal and you’re not servicing your core fans, they will turn against you. That will spell huge problems, because if they don’t like the film, everyone else is going to find out about it, and they won’t go either, right?”
More than a film
Since Covid shutdowns all but decimated the movie industry in early 2020, the number of films being produced for theatrical release has declined.
As studios produce fewer films, they’re counting even more on what they perceive as the safe bets of tried and true IP.
In 2024, 94 movies were released in more than 2,000 locations, a 20% decline from the 120 wide releases in 2019. That drop was mirrored in the box-office results, which were down about 23% from the $11.4 billion tallied in 2019.
In 2025, there were 112 wide released films, about 6.6% down from 2019 levels, but the box office still lagged more than 20%.
Hollywood analysts point to several factors to explain why the domestic box office continues to drag.
There is a lack of theatrical content, particularly films that are in the mid-budget range — $15 million to $90 million. Most of these films, which tend to be dramas, comedies, romantic comedies and thrillers, have transitioned to streaming, as they are cheaper to make and help pad digital libraries with new content.
At the same time, consumers have become pickier about what they watch and the home entertainment space has advanced in a way that in-home technology makes staying on the couch easier.
Because of this, studios and theater owners have started “eventizing” film releases — promoting the films as must-see in premium large format theaters like IMAX, Dolby Cinema, Screen X or 4DX; selling specialty merchandise like popcorn buckets and drink sippers as well as limited-time food options; and hosting events associated with a film release like friendship bracelet making for the Taylor Swift concert film release.
Often, the films that are easiest to promote in this way are those that are based on known franchises.
Last year, when “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” hit theaters, Alamo Drafthouse hosted fancy dress screenings, encouraging moviegoers to arrive in period-appropriate attire. The event included a costume contest and themed drinks and food. The theater chain has hosted similar events for screenings of James Bond and Star Wars films and will host one for the upcoming “Wuthering Heights” adaptation.
And these franchises aren’t just showing up in movie theaters. Many major film studios also have their own consumer product and experience divisions, which rely on theatrical content to not only sell merchandise but fuel theme park designs, live events and even cruise ships.
Fans of franchises are hungry for products that celebrate and show off their favorite characters or movie moments. This can manifest in the form of apparel, bedding, kitchen utensils and bumper stickers all the way to collectibles, luxury watches, electronics and seasonal products like ornaments.
Disney has built theme park lands, rides and cruise ship elements based on Star Wars, Marvel, The Muppets, Pixar films like Cars, The Incredibles, Toy Story and Monsters Inc., as well as Disney Animation properties like Frozen, Zootopia, Moana, The Lion King and the Little Mermaid.
New Toy Story Land at Disney’s Hollywood Studio
Source: Courtesy Visit Orlando
Comcast’s Universal, too, has decked out its theme parks with its own properties — Jurassic Park, Minions, Secret Life of Pets, Dark Universe and How to Train Your Dragon — alongside licensed franchises like the Wizarding World of Harry Potter and Nintendo.
And beloved and well-tended-to franchises have staying power: The Star Wars franchise hasn’t notched a new theatrical release since 2019, yet it’s remained one of the top film franchises in the cultural zeitgeist, according to Fandom, the world’s largest platform for entertainment fans.
Disclosure: CNBC and Rotten Tomatoes are divisions of Versant Media.
Business
Budget 2026: Fiscal deficit, capex, borrowing and debt roadmap among key numbers to track – The Times of India
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her record ninth straight Union Budget, with markets closely tracking headline numbers ranging from the fiscal deficit and capital expenditure to borrowing and tax revenue projections, as India charts its course as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.The Budget will be presented in a paperless format, continuing the practice of recent years. Sitharaman had, in her maiden Budget in 2019, replaced the traditional leather briefcase with a red cloth–wrapped bahi-khata, marking a symbolic shift in presentation.Here are the key numbers and signals that investors, economists and policymakers will be watching in the Union Budget for 2025-26 and beyond:
Fiscal deficit
The fiscal deficit for the current financial year (FY26) is budgeted at 4.4 per cent of GDP, as reported PTI. With the government having achieved its consolidation goal of keeping the deficit below 4.5 per cent, attention will turn to guidance for FY27. Markets expect the government to indicate a deficit closer to 4 per cent of GDP next year, alongside clarity on the medium-term debt reduction path.
Capital expenditure
Capital spending remains a central pillar of the government’s growth strategy. Capex for FY26 is pegged at Rs 11.2 lakh crore. In the upcoming Budget, the government is expected to continue prioritising infrastructure outlays, with a possible 10–15 per cent increase that could take capex beyond Rs 12 lakh crore, especially as private investment sentiment remains cautious.
Debt roadmap
In her previous Budget speech, the finance minister had said fiscal policy from 2026-27 onwards would aim to keep central government debt on a declining trajectory as a share of GDP. Markets will look for a clearer timeline on when general government debt-to-GDP could move towards the 60 per cent target. General government debt stood at about 85 per cent of GDP in 2024, including central government debt of around 57 per cent.
Borrowing programme
Gross market borrowing for FY26 is estimated at Rs 14.80 lakh crore. The borrowing number announced in the Budget will be closely scrutinised, as it signals the government’s funding needs, fiscal discipline and potential impact on bond yields.
Tax revenue
Gross tax revenue for 2025-26 has been estimated at Rs 42.70 lakh crore, implying an 11 per cent growth over FY25. This includes Rs 25.20 lakh crore from direct taxes—personal income tax and corporate tax—and Rs 17.5 lakh crore from indirect taxes such as customs, excise duty and GST.
GST collections
Goods and Services Tax collections for FY26 are projected to rise 11 per cent to Rs 11.78 lakh crore. Projections for FY27 will be keenly watched, especially as GST revenue growth is expected to gather pace following rate rationalisation measures implemented since September 2025.
Nominal GDP growth
Nominal GDP growth for FY26 was initially estimated at 10.1 per cent but has since been revised down to about 8 per cent due to lower-than-expected inflation, even as real GDP growth is pegged at 7.4 per cent by the National Statistics Office. The FY27 nominal GDP assumption—likely in the 10.5–11 per cent range—will offer clues on the government’s inflation and growth outlook.
Spending priorities
Beyond the headline aggregates, the Budget will also be scanned for allocations to key social and development schemes, as well as spending on priority sectors such as health and education.Together, these numbers will shape expectations on fiscal discipline, growth momentum and policy support as India navigates a complex global economic environment.
Drinkers across the UK are set to face higher prices for wine and spirits as a significant increase in alcohol duty comes into effect this Sunday, 1 February.
Industry leaders warn that businesses “have no choice but to increase prices” to remain viable amid mounting financial pressures.
The tax levied on alcoholic beverages will rise by 3.66 per cent, in line with the Retail Prices Index (RPI) inflation, a measure confirmed in November’s autumn budget.
While the duty is directly imposed on producers, industry chiefs anticipate a “trickle down” effect, with consumers ultimately bearing the brunt of these additional costs.
Official figures illustrate the impact: the duty on a typical 37.5 per cent alcohol by volume (ABV) bottle of gin will climb by 38p to £8.98, inclusive of VAT.
Similarly, a 40 per cent ABV bottle of Scotch whisky will see its duty increase by 39p, reaching £9.51. A 14.5 per cent red wine will incur an additional 14p in duty.
The Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA) highlighted that the duty on a 14.5 per cent red wine has now surged by £1.10 per bottle since the new alcohol duty regime was introduced in August 2023.
In response, the UK Spirits Alliance, representing hundreds of distillers, has urged the Chancellor to use an upcoming duty review to foster growth, address “spirits discrimination,” and establish a long-term strategy for the sector.
The duty structure, partly linked to drink strength, saw an overhaul in 2023, resulting in beer below 3.5 per cent ABV paying significantly less tax.
This has prompted some beer brands, such as Foster’s, to reduce their strength to 3.4 per cent in recent months to mitigate duty costs.
However, the latest increase will affect beer sold in both pubs and supermarkets, marking the first time pubs have been impacted since 2017.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, stated: “These changes unfortunately increase the likelihood of further price rises, which no brewer or publican would want to inflict on their customers.
“For brewers, who already pay some of the highest rates of beer duty in Europe, this increase will add further strain to their already razor-thin profit margins and risk one of the UK’s world-renowned industries producing the greatest beers in the world.”
Miles Beale, chief executive of the WSTA, criticised the government’s approach: “Despite the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) at last acknowledging higher prices lead to a decline in receipts, the Government fails to recognise that its own policy is benefiting no-one.
“For the nation’s wine and spirit sector the complexities of price changes, especially for wine which is now taxed by strength, mean more red tape headaches ahead.
“Add to this all the other costs – including NI (national insurance) contributions, business rates and waste packaging taxes – and businesses have no choice but to increase prices in order to keep afloat, which unfortunately means consumers are going to take the hit once again.”
Braden Saunders, spokesperson for the UK Spirits Alliance and co-founder of Doghouse Distillery, Battersea, remarked on the timing: “The timing couldn’t be more ironic. Just as dry January draws to a close and people contemplate their first hard-earned drink, they’re met with higher prices at the bar.
“The spirits industry has been treated as a cash cow by consecutive governments, and the sector is on its knees.”
Allen Simpson, chief executive of UKHospitality, echoed these concerns: “Hospitality businesses are facing price pressures at every turn and our sector’s cost burden is growing at an unsustainable rate.
“Increases to alcohol duty, while not paid directly by operators, is another pressure, if it is passed on to businesses through higher drinks prices. We strongly urge suppliers to show restraint in doing so, recognising the economic pressure the sector is under.”
A Treasury spokesman defended the policy, stating: “For too long the economy hasn’t worked for working people, and cost-of-living pressures still bear down. That’s why we are determined to help bring costs down for everyone.
“It’s why we’re taking £150 off energy bills, increasing the National Living Wage, ending the two-child limit, rolling out free breakfast clubs for all primary school children, and freezing fuel duty, rail fares and prescription fees.
“We need to rebuild the public services we all rely on. We’ve put record funding into our schools and NHS to give every child the best start in life and bring down waiting lists.
“Alcohol duty plays an important role in ensuring public finances remain fair and strong and funds the public services people rely on every day.”
Last Updated:
Union Budget 2026, to be tabled by Nirmala Sitharaman, will focus on a detailed Part B, outlining India’s economic vision, reforms, and global strengths.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to present the Union Budget in Parliament tomorrow, Feb 01.
Budget 2026: Union Budget 2026 to be tabled tomorrow, Sunday, February 01, 2026, is expected to be different and unique from earlier budgets delivered since Independence. It is expected that the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will focus more in detail on Part B than Part A, as seen in earlier budgets, government sources said.
Traditional Budget Structure Likely To Change
In past budget presentations, Part A of the Finance Minister’s speech typically carried extensive detail on economic conditions, fiscal numbers, and major policy announcements, while Part B was relatively brief and limited in scope. However, government sources said this long-standing format is set to change in the upcoming budget.
According to sources, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to devote significantly more time and detail to Part B of the Budget Speech than seen in previous years. GoI sources said this shift reflects the government’s intention to present a more structured and forward-looking policy narrative.
Focus On Short-Term And Long-Term Economic Goals
The sources said Part B of the Budget Speech will place strong emphasis on both immediate economic priorities and long-term development goals. The section is expected to outline how the government plans to balance near-term growth, fiscal discipline, and social welfare with longer-term structural reforms.
Part B will articulate India’s economic vision as the country moves deeper into the second quarter of the 21st century, highlighting policy continuity as well as new initiatives aligned with evolving global and domestic challenges.
Showcasing India’s Strengths On The Global Stage
The sources further said Part B of the Budget Speech will offer a roadmap for showcasing India’s local strengths in a global context. This is expected to include an assessment of India’s current economic capabilities, sectoral advantages, and future growth potential.
The emphasis will be on positioning India as a competitive and resilient economy, while reinforcing its role in global supply chains and international markets.
Economists And Global Experts Watching Closely
Given the expanded scope and strategic intent of Part B, GoI sources said it is likely to draw close attention from economists, policy analysts, and global experts. The section is expected to serve as a key indicator of the government’s medium- to long-term economic priorities and reform trajectory.
January 31, 2026, 19:42 IST
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