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Home prices go negative for the first time in over 2 years — and may stay that way for a while

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Home prices go negative for the first time in over 2 years — and may stay that way for a while


A home is shown for sale in The Heights in Houston, Monday, Oct. 27, 2025.

Kirk Sides | Houston Chronicle | Getty Images

Home prices have finally come down compared with last year, though just fractionally, according to daily reads from Parcl Labs, which looks at high-frequency listing data on single-family homes, condos and townhomes, both new and existing.

They may stay softer, though, as home prices are down 1.4% in just the last three months.

On a national level, home prices have not gone negative since mid-2023, a year after the Federal Reserve first brought rates up from zero, and mortgage rates moved sharply higher. From March 2022 to June 2023, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage went from 3.9% to just over 7%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

But even then, prices were negative on a year-over-year basis for just a few months. It was nothing like the great financial crisis when home prices dropped 27% from their peak in 2006 to their trough in 2012, according to the S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

“More recently we have seen a period of national softness emerging after the rapid run-up during the Covid years, 2020 to 2022,” said Jason Lewris, co-founder of Parcl Labs. “The sharp increase in mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023 created an affordability shock: buyers were priced out, sales volumes dropped, and sellers had to adjust expectations. Historically, that combination of a credit or affordability shock, weaker demand, and more inventory than the market can easily absorb is what tends to produce broad national price declines.”

Inventory today is still historically low, but it has come off its near-record lows of recent years. Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher, according to Realtor.com. Sellers are also pulling their homes off the market at an unusually high rate.

Prices nationally are down less than 1%, but certain markets are seeing more significant drops: Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they’re down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%.

There are also markets seeing gains: in Cleveland, prices gained 6%; Chicago and New York City both saw price increases of 5%; Philadelphia saw prices rise 3%; and Pittsburgh and Boston both saw 2% price gains, according to Parcl.

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While other home price indexes and surveys measure just existing home values, this one measures both new and existing. There has been no government data on housing starts, building permits or sales of newly built homes since before the government shutdown started, so it’s difficult to paint any kind of supply picture in the price forecast.

That said, builders reporting quarterly earnings have indicated that demand is still relatively weak and incentives are still necessary. Homebuilder sentiment is still well into negative territory.

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said Robert Dietz, NAHB’s chief economist, in a November release. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

Mortgage rates have not moved much in the last three months, and had very little reaction to the latest Federal Reserve rate cut Wednesday. Home prices, therefore, are unlikely to do much either.

“Our base case from here is not a deep national downturn, but a period where prices hover around zero, with small positive or small negative year over year changes, rather than the double digit gains of the pandemic era,” said Lewris. “How far they move in either direction will depend mainly on mortgage rates and the broader health of the economy.”



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CII Lays Out Investment Roadmap For Budget 2026-27

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CII Lays Out Investment Roadmap For Budget 2026-27


India’s next phase of economic growth will depend on steady and strong investment across public, private, and foreign channels, according to the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). CII, in a release, laid out a detailed plan for the Union Budget 2026-27, saying that the Budget needs to act as both a stabiliser and a growth driver.

CII Director General Chandrajit Banerjee said the coming Budget must focus on boosting investments to keep India’s growth steady. He explained that public spending has pushed the country’s recovery after the pandemic, and that continued support in this area will help India stay on track as one of the fastest-growing major economies.

CII has suggested raising central capital expenditure by 12 per cent and increasing support to states by 10 per cent in FY27. These funds, it said, should go mainly to areas where spending creates the highest impact, such as transport, energy, logistics, and the green transition. CII also recommended creating a Capital Expenditure Efficiency Framework to help select and track important projects and measure their outcomes more clearly. Along with this, it proposed launching a new Rs 150 lakh crore National Infrastructure Pipeline for 2026-32 to give long-term clarity to investors and states.

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The release also noted that India needs a more flexible fiscal policy. CII suggested shifting from strict annual deficit rules to a debt framework that adjusts with economic cycles. This, it said, would help the government respond better during shocks without losing long-term stability.

On private investment, CII highlighted that India now needs strong momentum from businesses to support growth. “The Government of India has provided a big demand push via income tax relief in last year’s Union Budget and recently via GST 2.0. Investments, especially private sector investment, will be the next big driver for economic growth that needs to be focused on in the next fiscal to continue the growth momentum,” Banerjee said.

CII recommended tax credits or easier compliance for companies that increase investments or production, along with returning accelerated depreciation to help firms, especially MSMEs, modernise.

To attract long-term global capital, CII proposed creating an NRI Investment Promotion Fund with partial government holding. This fund would help channel NRI and foreign institutional money into areas like infrastructure and AI. It also suggested strengthening the National Investment and Infrastructure Fund through a new Sovereign Investment Strategy Council to guide investments.

CII further called for simpler external borrowing rules and a single-window system for large foreign investment proposals to reduce delays and increase certainty. It also suggested forming an India Global Economic Forum to allow structured discussions between global investors and government leaders.

“An investment-driven growth strategy, anchored in fiscal credibility and institutional reforms, will define India’s next development phase,” Banerjee said.



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Can Indians Switch To A 4-Day Work Week? Here’s What Govt Says

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Can Indians Switch To A 4-Day Work Week? Here’s What Govt Says


New Delhi: For decades, the five-day work week has been the norm for most Indian employees. However, with rising conversations around work–life balance and productivity, many are now wondering if a four-day work week could become a reality in India. Several countries such as Japan, Germany and Spain have already experimented with shorter work schedules and reported encouraging outcomes. Interestingly, recent changes and discussions around India’s labour laws indicate that a four-day work week may be possible for certain sections of the workforce.

What the Labour Ministry Has Said on 4-Day Work Week

The Ministry of Labour and Employment recently clarified on X (formerly Twitter) that a four-day work week is possible under the new Labour Codes. According to the Ministry, employees can work for 12 hours a day for four days, while the remaining three days will be paid holidays. However, the total weekly working hours will still be capped at 48 hours, and any work beyond 12 hours in a day will have to be paid at double the normal wage rate.

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Flexible Work Schedule Allowed Under New Labour Codes

The Labour Ministry has said that the revised Labour Codes allow employees to work 12 hours a day for four days, while the remaining three days can be taken as paid holidays, making a four-day work week possible under the new rules.

Weekly Work Hours Cap Remains Unchanged

The Labour Ministry clarified that the total working hours in a week will still be capped at 48 hours, even under a four-day work schedule. It also noted that the 12-hour workday includes breaks and spread-out time, ensuring employees are not working continuously for the entire duration.

What’s New Under India’s Updated Labour Laws

On November 21, 2025, the government consolidated 29 existing labour laws into four new labour codes—the Code on Wages (2019), Industrial Relations Code (2020), Social Security Code (2020), and the Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code (2020). The move aims to simplify labour regulations while ensuring timely payment of wages, regulated working hours, better workplace safety and wider access to health and social security benefits.

A major change under the new codes is for fixed-term employees. They are now entitled to the same benefits as permanent workers, including leave, health coverage and social security. Notably, fixed-term workers can claim gratuity after just one year of continuous service, instead of the earlier five-year requirement, and must be paid wages equal to permanent employees doing similar work.



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Kanpur–Lucknow Expressway To Revitalise Startup Ecosystem, Forge Vibrant Economic Belt

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Kanpur–Lucknow Expressway To Revitalise Startup Ecosystem, Forge Vibrant Economic Belt


New Delhi: Lucknow is set to witness a significant boost to its startup ecosystem with the construction of the Kanpur–Lucknow Expressway, a key infrastructure project expected to reshape economic activity across the region, Uttar Pradesh government officials said on Sunday.

The expressway, being developed under the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath government’s connectivity push, is projected to emerge as a catalyst for innovation, entrepreneurship, and industrial growth. Once operational, the expressway will drastically reduce travel time between Kanpur and Lucknow, cutting the current journey of nearly two hours to a matter of minutes.

The improved connectivity is expected to make business travel more efficient, strengthen supply chains, and enhance logistics movement, making the corridor an attractive destination for startups and investors alike. According to Deepak Maini, Chairman of the Progressive Federation of Trade and Industry (PFTI), Uttar Pradesh’s rapid infrastructure expansion is creating a favourable environment for innovation-driven enterprises.

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He said the Kanpur–Lucknow corridor has the potential to evolve into a vibrant economic belt, generating new opportunities in industry, education, and employment.

Industry experts believe the expressway will also encourage closer collaboration between academic institutions. With faster access, partnerships between IIT Kanpur and leading educational and management institutions in Lucknow are expected to intensify, particularly in areas such as deep technology, the Internet of Things, and advanced manufacturing.

Such collaboration could provide startups with easier access to mentorship, research facilities, funding avenues, and skilled talent.

Plans are also being discussed to develop manufacturing and logistics clusters along the expressway route.

In the coming years, the corridor is likely to see the establishment of IT parks, industrial nodes, and special economic zones, offering startups a conducive environment to scale operations. Officials say the expressway aligns with the state’s long-term vision of “Viksit Uttar Pradesh @ 2047”, aimed at accelerating economic growth and job creation.

A strategic roadmap is being prepared to position Lucknow as a major startup hub in North India, with expectations of increased private investment and the generation of a large number of high-paying jobs in the years ahead.



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