Business
Is Pakistan ready to seize US export opportunity? | The Express Tribune

ISLAMABAD:
The United States is undergoing a major overhaul of its trade policies, triggering a broader reshaping of global supply chains. Steep tariff hikes on key exporters like China, India and Brazil are forcing US importers to rethink their sourcing strategies.
This disruption presents a rare and valuable opening for countries like Pakistan to step in and gain market share. With Chinese and Indian exports facing average tariffs of 50% or more, Pakistan’s comparatively low 19% tariff offers a clear competitive edge. The critical question is whether Pakistan is prepared to seize this moment.
American importers are already shifting supply chains away from high-tariff countries, creating new opportunities for agile exporters. Pakistan, with its recent economic reforms reducing input costs and facilitating capital goods imports, is uniquely positioned to capitalise on this trade realignment.
After years of stagnant exports, this market disruption presents a critical window to gain foothold in vacated market segments, particularly where Pakistan’s newly enhanced cost competitiveness can deliver immediate advantages.
Pakistan’s current strongest export position in the US lies in textiles and apparel, where it ships over $5 billion of goods annually. By comparison, China exports $40 billion — apparel about $24 billion and textiles $16 billion — and India $9 billion with a balanced 50-50 split between apparel and textiles.
Even a modest redirection of orders from these countries to Pakistan could generate significant gains. The textile sector, given its existing base and infrastructure, remains the most immediate area where Pakistan could scale up exports quickly.
In addition to textiles and clothing, several other sectors show promise. Pakistan’s leather exports to the US currently stand at $171 million, while its global leather exports total $710 million, highlighting that the country is competitive in this sector.
Similarly, the sports goods industry, known for its world-class football manufacturing, has exports nearing $400 million and is well-positioned to grow with improved branding and market access. The recent emergence of truck and bus radial tyres as an export item to the US is another bright spot. With exports surpassing $100 million last year and over 20% year-on-year growth, it reflects the kind of momentum that can be built with the right focus.
Pakistan’s mobile assembly sector represents one of its most glaring missed industrial opportunities. While India’s mobile exports to the US surged to $7.5 billion in FY 2024-25, fuelled by China tariff diversions, Pakistan’s $160 million in annual exports remain confined to low-end markets, despite sharing similar starting conditions.
The 2020 Mobile Device Manufacturing Policy attracted 26 assemblers through component duty exemptions and local market protection, driving import substitution (90% of domestic demand). However, this inward-focused model, which failed spectacularly in the auto sector, continues to stifle export potential. Component imports now consume $1.5-2 billion annually without generating meaningful foreign exchange as assemblers prioritise lucrative domestic sales over competitive global integration.
The need for change is particularly critical in the engineering goods sector where Indian exports to the US are about $18 billion, or 28% of their exports, as compared to Pakistan’s less than $0.5 billion, or about 7% of its exports. This sector must be freed from the outdated import substitution mindset still embedded within the relevant government institutions.
This is a missed opportunity not just economically but also strategically, as engineering-led exports can help Pakistan diversify its trade base and reduce over-reliance on traditional low value-added sectors. If this sector is freed from micromanagement of government agencies, it could become a key driver of export growth and industrial upgrading.
The global trade order is experiencing its most profound transformation in a generation, presenting Pakistan with a critical opportunity to reshape its economic future. Bold reforms in this year’s budget, particularly tariff rationalisation, are already yielding promising results: a record 17% monthly export surge and 42% growth in customs and other taxes on imports, marking the highest single-month gains in recent history.
While it’s premature to draw long-term conclusions from one month’s data, these early indicators align with economic modelling that predicted benefits from greater openness, validating the reform direction. Critics who focus narrowly on deficits overlook a fundamental truth of development economics: strategic short-term deficits have consistently served as necessary investments for emerging economies to achieve lasting prosperity, as demonstrated by the trajectories of China, Vietnam and other success stories.
The writer is a member of the steering committee on US tariffs. Previously he served as Pakistan’s ambassador to WTO and FAO’s representative to the United Nations
Business
EY and Microsoft launch AI skills passport: Free program to train youth in AI; focus on career growth – The Times of India

EY and Microsoft on Saturday launched the AI Skills Passport, a free online learning initiative aimed at equipping Indian students and early-career professionals with essential artificial intelligence (AI) skills. The program targets individuals aged 16 and above and is designed to bridge the country’s growing AI skills gap, according to an EY statement, ANI reported.Part of a global effort that has already engaged over 40,000 participants worldwide, the AI Skills Passport offers self-paced learning modules spanning around 10 hours, available in both English and Hindi. The curriculum covers AI fundamentals, responsible AI, and practical applications across sectors including healthcare, finance, and technology. Participants also receive guidance on job readiness, including resume tips, interview support, and networking insights.Learners who complete the program are awarded a verifiable digital badge, enhancing their professional profiles. The initiative is part of EY Ripples, EY’s global corporate responsibility programme, and will partner with not-for-profit organisations to ensure students from economically weaker backgrounds have access to mentorship, learning, and career guidance.Monesh Dange, Partner and Leader, Alliances and Ecosystems, EY India, said, “In an era where AI is revolutionising work, the AI Skills Passport addresses India’s urgent need for skilled talent. Together with Microsoft, we aim to ensure the program is accessible and impactful at scale.”Bhaskar Basu, Enterprise Partnerships Leader, Microsoft India & South Asia, added, “AI is transforming India’s digital economy, and youth are at its core. The AI Skills Passport brings high-quality AI learning to everyone, accelerating Microsoft’s goal to equip 10 million Indians with AI skills by 2030.”
Business
Environment minister Bhupender Yadav heads to Brazil: India engages in pre-talks ahead of COP30; climate finance and adaptation on agenda – The Times of India

Union Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav is set to travel to Brasília on October 13-14 for a pre-COP meeting as India steps up preparations for the UN climate summit COP30, scheduled in Belém, Brazil, in November. The meeting aims to streamline negotiations on key issues and build consensus among ministers before the main conference. He confirmed his visit on his X account. The two-day pre-COP will bring together environment and climate ministers, senior negotiators, and observers to narrow differences on politically sensitive issues and build ministerial consensus ahead of the COP30 negotiations, PTI reported. The COP30 presidency expects 30-50 delegations and around 800 participants at the event.Pre-COPs, while not formal UNFCCC events, have become a routine instrument for host countries to focus ministerial attention on a limited set of political questions that otherwise take negotiators weeks to resolve. Ministers use these meetings to test negotiating texts, identify common ground, and prepare positions to expedite negotiations at the main COP.COP30 is unfolding against a complex geopolitical backdrop, with some developed countries reassessing climate strategies amid economic and energy security pressures. The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has further heightened tensions. Disagreements over climate finance, the pace and responsibility of the energy transition, and burdens on developing countries remain sharp.Trust between developed and developing countries is fragile following COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where many Global South delegates said finance outcomes fell short of expectations. Central issues include the scale and nature of climate finance, grant versus loan structures, and predictability of funds for adaptation and loss and damage. These topics are expected to dominate discussions in Brasília and later in Belém.Logistical concerns are adding further pressure. Reports indicate shortages of hotel rooms and high costs in Belém, potentially limiting participation of smaller delegations and vulnerable countries. Observers warn that unequal attendance could affect negotiating dynamics and the legitimacy of outcomes.Key discussion points include climate finance, the post-2025 collective finance goal, rules and integrity for international carbon trading under Article 6, adaptation and national adaptation plans, and translating the Global Stocktake into actionable timelines. Loss and damage finance will also be a priority, with ministers aiming to make it predictable and accessible.India has emphasised equity and differentiated responsibilities in climate action, urging developed countries to meet Article 9 obligations on finance. It has pressed for predictable and concessional support for adaptation and loss and damage, while highlighting the need for technology transfer and capacity building aligned with national circumstances. India has also underscored a just energy transition that allows space for development.Ahead of COP30, India plans to submit two key documents: an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), extending commitments to 2035, and the country’s first national adaptation plan (NAP). The updated NDC is expected to raise ambition on emissions intensity of GDP, non-fossil electricity capacity, and carbon sinks through forest and tree cover, without introducing new pledges. India has already exceeded its target for non-fossil installed capacity ahead of the 2030 deadline.Officials told PTI that India will closely monitor outcomes on carbon markets and accounting, ensuring that poorly designed rules do not shift burdens or create perverse incentives.
Business
Foreign Investors Turn Buyers In Indian Markets This Month Amid Positive Cues

New Delhi: The intensity of foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling in the Indian markets slowed down significantly in October, analysts said on Sunday.
The shift in the FPI trading strategy is significant and it stems from two factors.
One, the valuation differentials between India and other markets, which were high earlier, had come down significantly in recent weeks following the rally in other markets and consolidation in the Indian market.
“Two, the growth and earnings prospects for India have been revised upward by market experts. The GST cuts and the low interest regime are expected to boost India Inc’s earnings in FY27, which the market will soon start discounting,” said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.
Foreign investors turned buyers in the cash market on the last four trading sessions of the week ended on October 10.
The cash market buy figure during the last four trading sessions stands at Rs 3,289 crore.
The global market sentiment has again turned negative with the reignite of the US-China trade war, following US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 100 per cent tariff on imports from China and restricting many critical US exports to China.
The FPI flows, going forward, will depend on how this renewed trade war pans out in the coming days, said analysts.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said Nifty50 edged higher by 104 points to close at 25,285 last Friday, amid improving global sentiment, supported by easing geopolitical tensions as Israel and Hamas agreed on the first stage of a ceasefire plan, along with signs of progress in a potential India–US trade deal.
“Renewed FPI buying also boosted sentiment. Additionally, India and the UK announced multiple collaborations across sectors including education, critical minerals, climate change, and defence,” he mentioned.
With the valuation differential coming down and Indian earnings likely to improve in FY27, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to slow down selling going forward.
Sustained FPI selling continued in September with the sell figure through exchanges touching Rs 27,163 crore. However, in keeping with the long-term trend of buying through the primary market, they bought equity for Rs 3,278 crore in September.
On the macro front, investors will closely track India’s retail inflation print for September, to be released on Monday.
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