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Is Pakistan ready to seize US export opportunity? | The Express Tribune

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Is Pakistan ready to seize US export opportunity? | The Express Tribune



ISLAMABAD:

The United States is undergoing a major overhaul of its trade policies, triggering a broader reshaping of global supply chains. Steep tariff hikes on key exporters like China, India and Brazil are forcing US importers to rethink their sourcing strategies.

This disruption presents a rare and valuable opening for countries like Pakistan to step in and gain market share. With Chinese and Indian exports facing average tariffs of 50% or more, Pakistan’s comparatively low 19% tariff offers a clear competitive edge. The critical question is whether Pakistan is prepared to seize this moment.

American importers are already shifting supply chains away from high-tariff countries, creating new opportunities for agile exporters. Pakistan, with its recent economic reforms reducing input costs and facilitating capital goods imports, is uniquely positioned to capitalise on this trade realignment.

After years of stagnant exports, this market disruption presents a critical window to gain foothold in vacated market segments, particularly where Pakistan’s newly enhanced cost competitiveness can deliver immediate advantages.

Pakistan’s current strongest export position in the US lies in textiles and apparel, where it ships over $5 billion of goods annually. By comparison, China exports $40 billion — apparel about $24 billion and textiles $16 billion — and India $9 billion with a balanced 50-50 split between apparel and textiles.

Even a modest redirection of orders from these countries to Pakistan could generate significant gains. The textile sector, given its existing base and infrastructure, remains the most immediate area where Pakistan could scale up exports quickly.

In addition to textiles and clothing, several other sectors show promise. Pakistan’s leather exports to the US currently stand at $171 million, while its global leather exports total $710 million, highlighting that the country is competitive in this sector.

Similarly, the sports goods industry, known for its world-class football manufacturing, has exports nearing $400 million and is well-positioned to grow with improved branding and market access. The recent emergence of truck and bus radial tyres as an export item to the US is another bright spot. With exports surpassing $100 million last year and over 20% year-on-year growth, it reflects the kind of momentum that can be built with the right focus.

Pakistan’s mobile assembly sector represents one of its most glaring missed industrial opportunities. While India’s mobile exports to the US surged to $7.5 billion in FY 2024-25, fuelled by China tariff diversions, Pakistan’s $160 million in annual exports remain confined to low-end markets, despite sharing similar starting conditions.

The 2020 Mobile Device Manufacturing Policy attracted 26 assemblers through component duty exemptions and local market protection, driving import substitution (90% of domestic demand). However, this inward-focused model, which failed spectacularly in the auto sector, continues to stifle export potential. Component imports now consume $1.5-2 billion annually without generating meaningful foreign exchange as assemblers prioritise lucrative domestic sales over competitive global integration.

The need for change is particularly critical in the engineering goods sector where Indian exports to the US are about $18 billion, or 28% of their exports, as compared to Pakistan’s less than $0.5 billion, or about 7% of its exports. This sector must be freed from the outdated import substitution mindset still embedded within the relevant government institutions.

This is a missed opportunity not just economically but also strategically, as engineering-led exports can help Pakistan diversify its trade base and reduce over-reliance on traditional low value-added sectors. If this sector is freed from micromanagement of government agencies, it could become a key driver of export growth and industrial upgrading.

The global trade order is experiencing its most profound transformation in a generation, presenting Pakistan with a critical opportunity to reshape its economic future. Bold reforms in this year’s budget, particularly tariff rationalisation, are already yielding promising results: a record 17% monthly export surge and 42% growth in customs and other taxes on imports, marking the highest single-month gains in recent history.

While it’s premature to draw long-term conclusions from one month’s data, these early indicators align with economic modelling that predicted benefits from greater openness, validating the reform direction. Critics who focus narrowly on deficits overlook a fundamental truth of development economics: strategic short-term deficits have consistently served as necessary investments for emerging economies to achieve lasting prosperity, as demonstrated by the trajectories of China, Vietnam and other success stories.

The writer is a member of the steering committee on US tariffs. Previously he served as Pakistan’s ambassador to WTO and FAO’s representative to the United Nations



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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs

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BP cautions over ‘weak’ oil trading and reveals up to £3.7bn in write-downs



BP has warned it expects to book up to five billion dollars (£3.7 billion) in write-downs across its gas and low-carbon energy division as it also said oil trading had been weak in its final quarter.

The oil giant joined FTSE 100 rival Shell, after it also last week cautioned over a weaker performance from trading, which comes amid a drop in the cost of crude.

BP said Brent crude prices averaged 63.73 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of last year compared with 69.13 dollars a barrel in the previous three months.

Oil prices have slumped in recent weeks, partly driven lower due to US President Donald Trump’s move to oust and detain Venezuela’s leader and lay claim to crude in the region, leading to fears of a supply glut.

In its update ahead of full-year results, BP also said it expects to book a four billion dollar (£3 billion) to five billion dollar (£3.7 billion) impairment in its so-called transition businesses, largely relating to its gas and low-carbon energy division.

But it said further progress had been made in slashing debts, with its net debt falling to between 22 billion and 23 billion dollars (£16.4 billion to £17.1 billion) at the end of 2025, down from 26.1 billion dollars (£19.4 billion) at the end of September.

It comes after the firm’s surprise move last month to appoint Woodside Energy boss Meg O’Neill as its new chief executive as Murray Auchincloss stepped down after less than two years in the role.

Ms O’Neill will start in the role on April 1, with Carol Howle, current executive vice president of supply, trading and shipping at BP, acting as chief executive on an interim basis until the new boss joins.

Ms O’Neill’s appointment has made history as she will become the first woman to run BP – and also the first to head up a top five global oil company – as well as being the first ever outsider to take on the post at BP.

Shares in BP fell 1% in morning trading on Wednesday after the latest update.



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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India

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Budget 2026: Kolkata realtors seek tax relief, revised affordable housing cap; eye demand revival – The Times of India


Real estate developers in Kolkata have urged the Centre to use the Union Budget to recalibrate housing policies to reflect rising land and construction costs, calling for higher tax benefits for homebuyers and a long-pending revision of the affordable housing definition to revive demand, especially in the mid-income segment, PTI reported.With the Budget set to be tabled on February 1, industry players said measures such as revisiting price caps for affordable homes, rationalising GST on under-construction properties and easing approval processes could significantly improve affordability and sales momentum.Sushil Mohta, president of CREDAI West Bengal and chairman of Merlin Group, said reforms must align with current market realities. “Revisiting the affordable housing definition, rationalising housing loan interest deductions and streamlining GST rates will significantly improve affordability and demand, especially for middle-income homebuyers,” he told PTI, adding that a policy push for rental housing and wider access to formal housing finance is crucial amid rapid urbanisation.Mahesh Agarwal, managing director of Purti Realty, said continued policy support through tax rationalisation and infrastructure spending remains critical. “A re-evaluation of affordable housing price limits in line with rising land and construction costs, along with adjustments to GST on under-construction property, will enhance affordability,” he said, stressing that simpler tax frameworks and incentives for first-time buyers would help stabilise the market and speed up project execution.Echoing similar concerns, Merlin Group MD Saket Mohta pointed to sharp increases in construction costs since the introduction of GST in 2017, underscoring the need for further rationalisation. He also called for raising the affordable housing price cap from Rs 45 lakh to around Rs 80–90 lakh and expanding unit size norms. “Mid-income housing will be the key demand driver going into 2026, and supportive tax and policy measures are essential to sustain growth,” he said.Eden Realty MD Arya Sumant said the Budget must strike a balance between fiscal discipline and growth-oriented reforms. “Higher home loan interest deductions for mid-income and first-time buyers, an updated affordable housing definition, GST rationalisation and faster approvals will improve project viability and speed-to-market,” he said, adding that sustained urban infrastructure investment would unlock demand across residential and commercial segments.Sahil Saharia, CEO of Bengal Shristi Infrastructure Development Ltd, said policy focus should shift towards large, integrated developments. “Support for mixed-use townships, rental housing and commercial hubs, along with faster clearances and digital single-window mechanisms, can help create self-sustained urban ecosystems and improve execution efficiency,” he said.Developers said clear and stable policy signals in the Budget could help restore homebuyer confidence, attract long-term capital and ensure sustainable growth for the real estate sector in eastern India.



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Asian stocks today: Markets remain mixed after Trump’s Iran remarks; HSI down over 76 points, Kospi gains 1.5% – The Times of India

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Asian stocks today: Markets remain mixed after Trump’s Iran remarks; HSI down over 76 points, Kospi gains 1.5% – The Times of India


Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump’s comments on Iran, saying that he was told “on good authority” that plans for executions in Iran have stopped. At the same time, oil prices dropped sharply, falling more than $2 a barrel.Hong Kong’s HSI was up 76 point or 0.28% down at 26,923. Nikkei plunged 230 points or 0.42% to trade at 54,110. Shanghai and Shenzhen ended down 0.33% and up 0.41%. In South Korea, Kospi was up 1.5% or 74 points.US benchmark crude slid $2, or 3.4%, to $59.75 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell $2.31, or 3.5%, to $64.21 a barrel.Shares of Toyota Industries rose 6.2% after reports said Toyota Motor had increased its buyout offer for the company to 18,800 yen ($118.61) per share. US futures were little changed. The future for the S&P 500 rose by less than 0.1%, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by less than 0.1%.On Wednesday, Wall Street closed lower for a second consecutive session. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1%.Losses were led by Big Tech stocks, even as most shares on Wall Street advanced. The sector came under pressure as investors pulled back from the artificial intelligence rally and amid warnings from some critics that valuations had become stretched. Nvidia shares declined 1.4%, while Broadcom fell 4.2%.Bank stocks also weakened. Wells Fargo sank 4.6% after reporting quarterly profit and revenue that missed expectations. Bank of America fell 3.8%, and Citigroup dropped 3.3%.Energy stocks provided some support to the broader market. Exxon Mobil gained 2.9%, and Chevron rose 2.1%.Investors continued to seek safe-haven assets as geopolitical uncertainties remained elevated. Gold prices slipped 0.8% on Thursday but stayed close to their previous record levels.In the bond market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell to 4.14% from 4.18% late Tuesday, reflecting increased demand for safer assets. Bond prices move inversely to yields.In currency trading early Thursday, the US dollar strengthened to 158.63 Japanese yen from 158.46 yen. The euro weakened slightly to $1.1636 from $1.1645.



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