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Khamenei dead, Middle East on edge: What will be the implications of Trump’s ‘Epic fury’ on stock markets, gold & oil? – The Times of India

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Khamenei dead, Middle East on edge: What will be the implications of Trump’s ‘Epic fury’ on stock markets, gold & oil? – The Times of India


Experience shows markets often come to view geopolitical disruptions as temporary. (AI image)

The global markets are in for a phase of enhanced turmoil and uncertainty! The ongoing tensions in the Middle East after US and Israel’s strikes on Iran and Ali Khamenei’s death may have investors running for cover – looking for an asset class that is safer.During the night of February 27–28, the United States and Israel carried out joint aerial strikes on Iran as part of “Operation Epic Fury.” Statements by President Trump openly referring to regime change suggest that the confrontation could evolve into a prolonged campaign rather than remain a limited exchange, say market analysts at Franklin Templeton Institute.What does the situation mean for stock markets, energy markets (oil), gold and other asset classes? Here’s what Franklin Templeton Institute analysts have to say:From a market perspective, the key uncertainty is whether the conflict remains confined to direct military engagement or expands into disruptions affecting energy supplies and logistics networks, which would sustain a higher and more persistent risk premium.At the centre of the ongoing uncertainty from a global market and trade perspective is the Strait of Hormuz. While a complete blockade would carry severe consequences for Iran itself, the country has the capability to disrupt maritime traffic through tactics such as vessel harassment, seizures, drone activity, cyber operations, or the use of proxy forces.

Strait of Hormuz

Strait of Hormuz

The most immediate economic impact is expected in energy markets, where crude oil and natural gas prices are likely to move higher, they say. Such actions, feel analysts, will keep geopolitical risk premiums at high levels. In 2024, approximately 20 million barrels per day moved through the Strait of Hormuz, which is around one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption. Even a limited interference – which can be caused by delays, rerouting, or isolated seizure – can push prices higher through increased risk perception well before any actual shortages emerge.Liquefied natural gas should not be overlooked in this context. Qatar has the world’s third-largest LNG export capacity, and roughly one-fifth of global LNG shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, largely consisting of Qatari exports. As a result, shipping risks in the region affect gas markets as significantly as oil markets.Also Read | US-Israel strikes on Iran: How will India be hit by Strait of Hormuz closure? ExplainedShipping expenses have already begun to rise, with insurance costs acting as a major driver. Insurers have started issuing cancellation notices and revising war-risk premiums for voyages in the Gulf region. Some routes have reportedly seen premium increases of up to about 50%, while earlier periods of tension recorded rises exceeding 60% on important trade corridors. These developments effectively tighten supply conditions even when production levels remain unchanged.The possibility of the conflict spreading across the region is increasing. Franklin Templeton Institute analysts are of the view that across global financial markets, the immediate response to such shocks is usually driven by adjustments in risk perception rather than by underlying economic changes. “The initial market reaction for this type of event would typically see Treasury yields move lower and equities lower—mostly a risk-premium repricing. Impacts on activity/earnings may be delayed and uneven. The US dollar reaction is not guaranteed; gold tends to benefit while bitcoin has been trading like a risk asset (i.e., down with equities), reinforcing that it’s not typically a reliable hedge/diversifier in geopolitical drawdowns,” say Franklin Templeton Institute analysts.However, they note that experience shows markets often come to view geopolitical disruptions as temporary. Initial spikes in risk premiums are frequently followed by the realization that the overall effect on corporate profitability is limited. The duration of the conflict, developments in shipping and insurance costs, and the eventual resolution will be more important than the initial headlines.“We would not yet label this a clean buy-the-dip setup—duration, shipping/insurance mechanics, and the endgame matter more than the first headline,” they say.From an investment perspective, the near-term outlook favours sectors linked to energy markets, as well as companies benefiting from higher shipping and insurance costs, along with defence-related industries, the analysts say. At the same time, caution is warranted toward emerging markets that depend heavily on energy imports and toward cyclical sectors sensitive to fuel and logistics costs, including airlines and certain industrial segments.“For protection, we prefer oil upside/volatility structures and selective gold exposure over broad equity shorts—the path will be driven more by shipping/insurance reality than by the new cycle,” they conclude.



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BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war

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BP profits more than double as oil trading booms amid Iran war


BP has come under fire after revealing profits more than doubled in the first three months of the year, thanks to the soaring cost of crude caused by the Iran war.

Chief executive Meg O’Neill praised the quarter as sending the firm “in the right direction” and “strengthening the balance sheet” – but critics have labelled the energy giant’s revenues as “horrifying” as “millions suffer the fallout” from war.

The FTSE 100 firm revealed its preferred profit measure – underlying replacement cost profit – surged by over 130% to a better-than-expected $3.2bn (£2.4bn) in the first quarter, up from $1.38bn (£1.02bn) a year earlier and $1.54bn (£1.13bn) in the previous three months. Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of $2.67bn (£1.97bn).

Campaigners accused the group of profiting at the expense of households, who have seen fuel prices rocket at the pumps and are set to see energy bills jump higher once more when the price cap is next updated on July 1.

The price of oil has risen from the mid-$60s range in February to over $100 now, spiking close to $120 several times during the course of the Iran war.

Patrick Galey, head of news investigations at campaigning organisation Global Witness, said: “It is horrifying to see BP’s profits grow as millions suffer the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran. Unfortunately we’ve been here before – when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago we saw big oil firms make bumper profits from spiralling fuel costs.  

“As oil prices drive up bills once again, it’s clear that fossil fuel companies don’t enhance affordability or energy security, they make life worse. They destroy the climate, push up the cost of living, and rake in billions in profit while innocent civilians die.

“It’s well overdue that we make oil companies pay for the damage their doing. If they broke it, they need to fix it. It’s clear they can afford to. BP profits, we all pay.”

Mike Childs, head of science, policy and research at Friends of the Earth, added: “Just as we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, fossil fuel giants are quids in when global instability drastically inflates fuel prices.

Most analysts had expected first-quarter profits of 2.67 billion dollars (£1.97 billion) (PA)

“But again, it’s ordinary people who pay the price when soaring energy prices threaten to plunge the UK into an even deeper cost-of-living crisis.”

The End Fuel Poverty Coalition called for a windfall tax on firms profiting from the Iran-related energy crisis.

The campaign group’s co-ordinator Simon Francis said: “These astronomical profits are a startling reminder that when conflict drives up the price of oil and gas, energy companies profit and households pay.”

BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill, who took over at the helm on April 1, said the group was ensuring fuel supplies are met across the UK.

She said: “The teams across BP are playing their part to keep oil, gas and refined products flowing during an incredibly challenging time – focused on maintaining safe, reliable and cost-efficient operations.”

She added: “We are working with customers and governments to get fuel where it’s needed, helping minimise disruption and the impact it can have on people’s lives.”

Ms O’Neill took over from Murray Auchincloss, who himself served only two years in the role after succeeeding Bernard Looney’s three-year tenure. Prior to the recent regular changes, Bob Dudley spent a full decade in the job up to 2020.

BP have struggled with strategy direction and the transition to clean energy, first doubling down on their green plan before an abrupt about-face turn.

In share price terms, the results saw BP rise 2.5 per cent in early trading on Tuesday, adding to a surge of more than 28 per cent in the past three months alone, as investors watched a soaring oil price and predicted the profits to come.

“In February, BP announced it was halting share buybacks as weak oil prices hurt profitability. How times change,” said Freetrade’s investment writer, Duncan Ferris.

“The firm has been among the best-performing supermajors since the escalation of conflict in Iran. Higher oil prices, and the opportunities they offer to the company’s traders, have breathed life into a stock battered by faltering low-carbon projects and investor unrest.”

Oil prices have raced higher since the US-Israel war on Iran started on February 28 and are now more than 60% up so far this year.

Brent crude reached close to 120 dollars a barrel at one stage and, despite falling back, is still above the 100 dollars level as peace talks falter and amid fears over a looming global energy supply crisis.

BP’s update showed its customers and products division – including its oil trading unit – reported profits of 2.5 billion (£1.84 billion), compared with 1.4 billion dollars (£1.03 billion) in the previous quarter and just 103 million dollars (£76.2 million) a year ago as traders were able to capitalise on highly volatile oil prices.

Additional reporting by PA



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Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz

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Oil prices edge higher as Trump weighs Iran’s latest proposal to open Hormuz



Oil prices jumped on Tuesday as Donald Trump weighed Iran’s latest proposal to end the war.

The US president is unhappy with the latest Iranian ​proposal, a US official said on Monday. Iranian sources disclosed that Tehran’s ​proposal avoided addressing its nuclear programme until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.

Trump’s ⁠displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of ​Hormuz, which typically carries supply equal to about 20 per cent of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping ​in place its blockade of Iranian ports.

Brent crude rose to $108.13 per barrel, hovering near a three-week high, while US West Texas Intermediate went up to $96.48.

Both benchmarks are well above pre-war levels. Brent was trading at $72 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February.

Asian stocks were broadly subdued at the opening. While MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.12 per cent, hovering near the record high it touched on Monday, Nikkei fell 0.5 per cent.

The S&P 500 eked out modest gains on Monday and was on course for a nearly 10 per cent gain for April. US stock futures were 0.1 per cent higher in Asian hours.

Indian shares are set to open lower on Tuesday, with GIFT Nifty futures pointing to the benchmark Nifty 50 opening below Monday’s close of 24,092.70. Both Nifty and Sensex snapped a three-session losing run on Monday, led by a rebound in technology stocks, but the broader momentum remained constrained by unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Elevated oil prices are a particular headwind for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, heightening inflation risks, pressuring economic growth and widening the country’s import bill.

Foreign portfolio investors offloaded domestic stocks worth Rs 11.5bn ($122m) on Monday, extending their selling streak to a sixth straight session.

Vessel crossings showed signs of recovery over the weekend, according to the maritime intelligence firm Windward, but analysts warned increased movement was yet to translate into a surge in oil and gas flows.

Iran reportedly offered to end its blockade of the waterway without addressing its nuclear programme, passing the proposal to Washington through Pakistani mediators. But Mr Trump has made ending Iran’s atomic programme a condition for any deal.

Central banks are also in focus this week, with the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank all due to announce policy decisions. All are expected to hold rates steady, but markets will be watching closely for signals about how policymakers plan to respond to the inflationary pressure from the war.

“The BOJ is likely to stay highly sensitive to market volatility,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, told Reuters. “Our base case remains one single 25 basis point hike this year in July, but a June rate rise becomes more likely if the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed after mid-May.”



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Oil prices climbs as no end to Iran war shows no signs of ending – SUCH TV

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Oil prices climbs as no end to Iran war shows no signs of ending – SUCH TV



Oil prices extended their gains on Tuesday as efforts to end the ‌US-Iran war appear stalled, with the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway still mainly shut, keeping energy supplies from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.

US President Donald Trump is unhappy ​with the latest Iranian proposal aimed at ending the war, a US official said on Monday. ​

Iranian sources disclosed on Monday that Tehran’s proposal avoided addressing its nuclear program ⁠until hostilities cease and Gulf shipping disputes are resolved.

Trump’s displeasure with the Iranian offer leaves ​the conflict deadlocked, with Iran shutting shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically ​carries supply equal to about 20% of global oil and gas consumption, and the US keeping in place its blockade of Iranian ports.

Brent crude futures for June climbed 45 cents, or 0.4%, to $108.68 a barrel, after gaining 2.8% in the previous session to its highest close ​since April 7. The contract is up for a seventh day.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June rose ‌58 ⁠cents, or 0.6%, to $96.96, after gaining 2.1% in the previous session.

An earlier round of negotiations between the US and Iran collapsed last week following failed face-to-face talks.

“For oil traders, it’s not the rhetoric that matters any more, but the actual physical flow of crude oil through the ​Strait of Hormuz, and ​right now, that flow ⁠remains constrained,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com, said in a note.

Razaqzada added that even if a resolution is reached, ​production outages and logistical challenges mean recovery could take months.

Ship-tracking data revealed ​significant disruptions ⁠in the region, with six Iranian oil tankers forced to turn back due to the US blockade.

However, a liquefied natural gas tanker managed by the United Arab Emirates’ Abu Dhabi National Oil ⁠Co did ​cross the Strait of Hormuz and appears to be ​near India, ship-tracking data showed on Monday.

Before the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, between 125 ​and 140 vessels transited the strait daily.



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