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LEI for UK declines by 0.3% in August 2025: Conference Board
However, the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the United Kingdom increased by 0.2 per cent in August 2025 to 108.3 (2016=100), after also no change in July. Overall, the CEI for the UK grew by 0.8 per cent over the six-month period from February to August 2025, on par with the 0.8 per cent increase observed over the previous six-month period between August 2024 and February 2025, The Conference Board said in a press release.
“The UK LEI remained on a downward trend and continued to decline in August,” said Timothy Brennan, economic research associate at The Conference Board. “As in previous months, the weakness came primarily from soft consumer sentiment, lower housing sale expectations, and a rise in unemployment claimants, which more than offset gains from financial components, operating surplus, and productivity. The 6-month growth rate of the UK LEI stayed above the recession threshold, and the warning signal was not triggered either. Still, the LEI reading indicates that economic growth in the United Kingdom will be sluggish through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. The Bank of England cut the bank rate for the third time this year in August 2025, a move that could help ease economic headwinds. The Conference Board expects UK GDP to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2025 and in 2026.”
The UK Leading Economic Index fell 0.3 per cent in August 2025, signalling continued weakness due to poor consumer sentiment and rising unemployment claims.
Despite this, the Coincident Index rose 0.2 per cent, reflecting modest current growth.
The LEI’s six-month decline suggests sluggish economic prospects through 2026, though not recessionary.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (RR)
Such countries include fragile and conflict-affected states and small developing states, especially where debt and financing pressures are mounting, he noted in his statement.
The IMF will continue to support countries in their efforts to promote stability and growth, including through sound macroeconomic policies, domestic resource mobilisation and better governance.
The chair of its International Monetary and Financial Committee said this support will include specific attention to low-income and vulnerable countries.
The committee called for enhanced debt transparency.
“We remain committed to further improving debt restructuring processes, including under the Common Framework, building on the progress already achieved, and advancing the work at the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR) to ensure debt restructurings are delivered in a predictable, timely, orderly and coordinated manner,” he said.
The committee called for enhanced debt transparency from all stakeholders, including private creditors.
“We will advance structural reforms to enable private sector-led investment, increase productivity, safeguard energy security, and elevate medium-term growth prospects,” added Aljadaan.
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“The improved order situation in industry has brightened sentiment somewhat. However, as a result of the Iran war, energy costs have risen sharply, and uncertainty among companies has also increased. That runs counter to a stronger economic recovery,” said Timo Wollmershauser, head of forecasts at ifo.
Firms in Germany have raised investment plans, with ifo expectations rising to 0.2 points in March from -3.1 in December 2025.
Industry led gains, especially non-energy sectors, while energy-intensive segments and chemicals remained weak.
Services showed modest optimism, but trade stayed pessimistic.
Rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty temper recovery.
The most notable rise in the willingness to invest was in industry. Expectations rose to +0.1 points in March, up from -6.9 points in December. The outlook improved particularly strongly in non-energy-intensive industries, where significantly more companies were planning to expand their investments this year, ifo said in a press release.
In energy-intensive industries, however, the willingness to invest remains subdued. At -9 points in March, the balance remained virtually unchanged from December (-8.9 points). In the chemical industry, investment expectations even declined further, from -15.8 to -16.2 points.
Overall, the corresponding balance in manufacturing rose from -4.1 to +1.2 points. “Companies across all sectors also want to invest more in software. The growing use of artificial intelligence is likely to play a role in that,” said ifo economic expert Lara Zarges.
In trade, companies remain the most pessimistic. The balance of investment expectations stood at -9.6 points in March, virtually unchanged from the level in December. Service providers, on the other hand, confirmed their slightly positive outlook from December: Their investment expectations improved from +1.1 to +2.8 points.
The points for the ifo investment expectations indicate the percentage of companies that intend to increase their investments on balance.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
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