Business
Middle East crisis: IEA proposes largest oil reserve release of 182 million barrels to ease crude prices – The Times of India
Amid soaring crude oil prices worldwide due to the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed the largest disbursement of oil reserves to help bring down prices.The release could exceed the 182 million barrels of oil that IEA member countries put on the market in two separate releases in 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, the proposal was circulated at an emergency meeting of energy officials from the organisation’s 32 member countries on Tuesday.Officials familiar with the matter said that the countries are expected to decide on the proposal on Wednesday. The plan will be adopted if no member objects; however, even if a single country objects, then the plan could be delayed.
Why it matters?
The IEA’s proposal aims to counter disruptions caused by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman and connects the region’s oil exports to global markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, around one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through the strait every day and the threat of tanker attacks by Tehran has halted ship traffic.Since February 28, when the United States and Israel began strikes on Iran, crude oil prices have surged by nearly 40%, briefly crossing the $100-per-barrel mark. However, prices fell this week as traders closely tracked statements by President Donald Trump about how long the conflict might last. On Tuesday, crude oil prices dropped to below $84 per barrel, although diesel prices have continued to rise.IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Monday that member countries hold about 1.2 billion barrels in public oil stocks, along with another 600 million barrels in mandatory commercial inventories. According to him, this combined reserve could cover roughly 124 days of lost supply from the Gulf.The agency previously released crude oil reserves twice in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. However, that move initially pushed oil prices up by nearly 20%, as traders interpreted the release as a sign that the crisis was more serious than expected.One of the most notable coordinated releases took place in 1991, when then US President George HW Bush ordered the first-ever drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a US-led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm against Iraq. IEA member countries also released oil from their stockpiles under a coordinated plan prepared ahead of the invasion.Oil prices fell by more than 20% on the first day of the US-led assault. By the time coalition forces entered Iraq and Kuwait in February, oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had already reached the market.The IEA was established in 1974 following the Arab Oil Embargo. Western countries created the organisation due to the increasing Iranian attacks on oil tankers travelling through the Strait. It aims to coordinate energy policy and ensure oil supply security during market disruptions.The agency sets guidelines on the level of crude oil reserves member countries must maintain and coordinates emergency releases to stabilise global markets during crises.
Business
UAE to leave Opec group of oil producers amid Middle East energy shock
The United Arab Emirates has decided to leave the Opec group of oil producers after six decades of membership amid an energy supply shock in the Middle East spurred by the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The UAE announced the decision, through the state-run WAM news agency, which will be effective from May 1.
Opec (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) was founded in Iran in 1960 and aims to co-ordinate production among member countries, stabilise oil markets and keep supply and income steady.
The UAE joined Opec in 1967, and its departure will leave the oil cartel with 11 member countries including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq.
A statement on the WAM news agency read: “This decision follows a comprehensive review of the UAE’s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market’s pressing needs.
“While near-term volatility, including disruptions in the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, continues to affect supply dynamics, underlying trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over the medium to long-term.”
The statement went on to say that following its exit, the UAE would “continue to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner”.
It has been reported that the UAE has expressed frustrations with production quotas agreed by Opec members in a bid to control oil prices, with the decision also referring to a desire for greater flexibility.
But the announcement comes at a fraught time in the Middle East with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting oil and gas supplies around the world and sending prices soaring.
David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist for Capital Economics, said the UAE had been “itching to pump more oil”.
“The UAE’s desire to pump more oil has been placated up to now by a combination of the rest of Opec turning a blind eye to its overproduction and also raising its quota levels,” he said.
The economist suggested that, if energy flows get back to normal once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, then the UAE’s departure from Opec could “feasibly” result in it pumping an additional one million barrels per day – the equivalent of about 1% of global oil demand.
Mr Oxley also warned that the move could trigger other members leaving Opec which would have bigger implications for the global oil market and prices.
Business
Blow for Reeves as government borrowing costs highest since 2008
There was a fresh blow for Rachel Reeves as government borrowing costs hit the highest level since the financial crash of 2008.
The yield on 10-year bonds – the most widely used benchmark of government debt costs went over 5 per cent on City trading screens.
Sometimes such moves are a blip followed by a fall, but instead they stayed at 5.1 per cent on Tuesday.
The interest rate paid on UK government debt is a sign of confidence in the wider economy; the higher the yield, the more investors are demanding to lend to the government.
Lucy Smith, senior investment manager at investment management firm Killik & Co, said: “Today the 10-year UK gilt yield has risen above 5 per cent for the first time since 2008. This is bad news for Reeves as she attempts to contain government borrowing costs whilst encouraging growth.”
The chancellor was already dealing with rising inflation, up from 3 per cent to 3.3 per cent in the most recent official figures, and has faced speculation that the prime minister may look to remove her in a shake-up of his team.
Retailers are warning of rises in the cost of food and fuel, a further blow to those on the lowest incomes who were already stretched. Local council elections on May 4 are expected to see a Labour battering at the polls.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised UK growth forecasts for the year down from 1.3 per cent to 0.8 per cent. Some economists fear she may have to find new tax rises.
Ms Smith added: “The Iran war has caused oil prices to spike, with the price of oil remaining above $100 a barrel, up from around $60 in December. The UK is a net importer of oil, so this increase is likely to create a supply-side inflationary shock, worsening the UK’s inflationary outlook. The combination of higher inflation and lower growth presents a significant challenge for the chancellor and may result in further tax rises or reduced spending in the next budget later this year.”
City insiders say that political instability within the UK government, particularly surrounding the Peter Mandelson vetting inquiry, may have also contributed to rising yields, as instability makes investors less willing to hold government debt.
Some spy opportunities for retail investors, since government debt is guaranteed. Bonds can be bought via all major investment platforms and held in tax-free ISAs.
Alan Miller at investment firm SCM Direct said: “Long gilts at 5 per cent plus are the best deal retail savers have had in years. Wrap it in an ISA, and you keep the lot.”
Ms Reeves has been trying to create so-called “headroom”, which means the UK’s finances remain within the guidance she has given to Parliament. Some experts argue she has handled this well.
Andrew Goodwin at Oxford Economics says: “We calculate that if gilt yields and market expectations for bank rate stay where they are now, it would knock about £7.5bn off the chancellor’s £23.6bn headroom at this autumn’s Budget. But this won’t force the chancellor to take corrective action. Indeed, it demonstrates that her decision to increase headroom at the 2025 Budget was a wise one because it has given her the room to absorb this unexpected shock without having to respond with higher taxes.”
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on Thursday and is expected to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent.
Before the Iran war, it was widely expected that the Bank would cut rates two or three times this year, leading to lower mortgage costs.
Critics say government policy is as much to blame as global events.
Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, wrote in a note: “Over the past decade, the UK economy has suffered a succession of policy mistakes and resulting rates of inflation which have consistently exceeded the prevailing trends across other major economies. Unsurprisingly, it no longer takes much to spook UK government debt markets.”
Business
UPS beats Wall Street estimates on top and bottom lines
A UPS driver sits in his truck on April 15, 2026 in the Flatbush neighborhood of the Brooklyn borough in New York City.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images
United Parcel Service on Tuesday posted first-quarter earnings results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
Shares of the delivery giant sank roughly 5% in premarket trading.
Here’s how the company performed in its first quarter, compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.07 adjusted vs. $1.02 expected
- Revenue: $21.2 billion vs. $20.99 billion expected
For the quarter ended March 31, UPS reported net income of $864 million, or $1.02 per share, compared with $1.19 billion, or $1.40 per share, a year prior. Adjusting for one-time items, the company reported a profit of $906 million, or $1.07 per share. Revenue fell to $21.2 billion from $21.5 billion a year ago.
“The first quarter of 2026 marked a critical transition period for UPS in which we needed to flawlessly execute several major strategic actions and we delivered,” CEO Carol Tomé said in a statement. “With that behind us, we expect to return to consolidated revenue and operating profit growth, and adjusted operating margin expansion in the second quarter of this year.”
For its full-year 2026 outlook, the company reaffirmed its consolidated financial estimate of $89.7 billion in revenue and non-GAAP adjusted operating margin of 9.6%.
“It is early in the year to raise [guidance],” Tomé said on a call with analysts on Tuesday, adding that there are no indications to be concerned about the health of the business.
In its domestic segment, UPS said revenue dropped 2.3%, primarily due to an expected decline in volume.
UPS is also in the midst of a turnaround plan and enhancing the automation in its network. In the first three months of the year, UPS said it achieved $600 million in cost savings from its network efficiency program, with expectations to reach $3 billion in year-over-year savings in 2026.
Company executives added on the call with analysts that fuel surcharges have not had a material impact on UPS’ business and that it remains too early to determine exact impacts from the war in the Middle East.
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