UK interest rates are set to be held at 4% until 2026 as lingering concerns about the economy prompt policymakers to act cautiously, economists have said.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its latest decision on Thursday.

The central bank is widely expected to keep rates at 4% after cutting them from 4.25% in August.

Economists believe the MPC may avoid cutting rates at meetings in November and December, meaning the figure could be kept on hold until February.

This would be a setback for mortgage holders with millions still expected to refinance on to higher rates in the coming years.

Thomas Pugh, chief economist for auditing firm RSM UK, said: “It’s all but guaranteed that the Bank of England will hold interest rates at 4% at its meeting on Thursday.

“The committee will stick to its gradual and cautious guidance, as it continues to try to balance rising inflation with a weakening labour market.”

UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.8% in July, from 3.6% in June, meaning it remained at the highest level since January 2024.

This was largely driven by food and drink prices rising, while overall wage inflation has remained at 5%, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.

Interest rates are used by the MPC to control inflation and bring it down to the 2% target.

The UK labour market has been stagnating with the unemployment rate remaining at a four-year high and job vacancies continuing to decline.

Philip Shaw, an economist for Investec, said he was expecting rates to be held at 4% until the end of the year, with the next cut in February.

He said recent economic data will be “unlikely to disperse the committee’s collective doubts over whether the inflationary coast is clear to resume easing” monetary policy by November.

Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics, said recent remarks from the Bank’s governor Andrew Bailey indicated he was happy with the financial markets pricing in only a 40% chance of another rate cut this year.

“The late Budget will likely also encourage the MPC to wait until December at least before considering another cut,” they said.

“We expect little change to the MPC’s guidance from August, given the hawkish dataflow and MPC members’ comments suggest little reason or desire to change their position from early August.”

In August, policymakers emphasised future rate cuts will need to be made “gradually and carefully” amid uncertainty about the economic outlook.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to deliver her autumn Budget on November 26, and is widely expected to raise taxes to balance the books.

New Delhi: The coming week is expected to be crucial for Indian stock markets as investors look ahead to key global and domestic developments. The US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, progress on India’s trade deals with the US and the EU, and the trend of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) will likely set the tone for market movements.

Market experts believe that the US Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting. A deeper cut of 50 basis points, however, would be a surprise and could boost sentiment in global markets, including India. (Also Read: Mcap Of 8 Most Valued Firms Jumps By Rs 1.69 Lakh Crore Amid Market Rally)

Updates on India’s trade negotiations will also be closely tracked. Last week, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said that discussions on an India-US trade deal are ongoing and that the first phase could be finalised by November.

He also noted that talks on the India-EU trade deal are at an advanced stage. FII activity will be another key driver for the markets. Out of the last five trading sessions, FIIs were net buyers in two, with inflows worth Rs 129.58 crore on Friday alone. This indicates that the FII trend is slowly turning positive.

The previous week was strong for Indian equities. The Nifty gained 373 points, or 1.51 per cent, to close at 25,114, while the Sensex climbed 1,193.94 points, or 1.48 per cent, to end at 81,904.70. Looking ahead, experts maintain a positive stance on equities. They suggest focusing on domestic cyclicals such as autos, metals, and consumer discretionary, while keeping a balance with defensives like select FMCG and pharma stocks. (Also Read: ITR Filing 2025: Has ITR Filing Deadline Extended? Here’s The Update)

On the technical front, analysts at Religare Broking said the Nifty has tested its previous swing high near 25,150. “While some consolidation cannot be ruled out, the outlook remains positive with the next upside target seen in the 25,250–25,500 range,” Ajit Mishra said.

“On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,800, with the 100-DEMA around 24,650 acting as a stronger cushion,” Mishra added. For Bank Nifty, the index is hovering near resistance at 55,000, where the 100-DEMA aligns with price hurdles.

“A breakout above this level could trigger short covering and open the way for 56,200, while support exists in the 54,000–54,400 zone and major support at the 200-DEMA near 53,600,” Mishra mentioned.

The prices of petroleum products are expected to rise by up to Rs4.79 per litre from September 16, under the fortnightly price review driven by fluctuations in the international oil market.

According to estimates, petrol may see an increase of Rs1.54 per litre, while high-speed diesel is likely to go up by Rs4.79 per litre.

Prices of kerosene and light diesel oil are projected to climb by Rs3.06 and Rs3.68 per litre, respectively.

The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) will submit its final calculations to the Petroleum Division on September 15.

The Petroleum Division and the Ministry of Finance will forward the calculations, including levy and tax adjustments, to the PM, who will give the final approval.