Sports
Reacting to the 2026 World Cup playoff draw: Who will fill the final six spots?
The 2026 FIFA men’s World Cup kicks off in just 203 days, but six qualification slots are still up for grabs via the Intercontinental and European playoffs.
Two teams will book a place at the event (to be played in the U.S., Mexico and Canada) via the playoffs, which will be staged in Mexico in March, while 16 European nations, including four-time World Cup winners Italy, are set to battle it out for the final four UEFA qualification berths. The path to the World Cup is now clear for the 22 nations still dreaming of a place at the finals next summer.
Following a draw at FIFA HQ in Zurich on Thursday, the playoffs are now locked in, so which teams can start to plan for North America and who has a nightmare route to football’s biggest tournament?
With the ties now confirmed, here are ESPN’s predictions.
European playoffs
The final four places at the World Cup will be determined via the UEFA playoffs, to be played in March 2026. There is no path to the World Cup through FIFA’s interconfederation playoffs.
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The UEFA playoffs involve 16 teams: the 12 group stage runners-up, plus the four best-ranked group winners from the UEFA Nations League who did not finish in the top two in World Cup qualifying. The teams will be divided into four pots according to FIFA ranking, with the Nations League group winners assigned to Pot 4 and drawn into four routes, each with four teams featuring a one-legged semifinal and a final for a place at the World Cup.
Semifinals to be played on March 26; finals to be played on March 31
Path 1: Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Semifinal 1, Italy vs. Northern Ireland: The playoff nightmare returns for Italy following elimination at this stage ahead of the 2018 and 2022 World Cup, but they will be happy with a home draw against Northern Ireland in the semifinal.
Michael O’Neill’s team are huge outsiders, and despite finishing second in their qualifying group behind Norway, Italy should be too strong and more than capable of erasing memories of failures to beat Sweden (2018) and North Macedonia (2022) at home in their last playoff campaigns.
Winner: Italy
Semifinal 2, Wales vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Wales coach Craig Bellamy made huge importance of beating North Macedonia in Cardiff in their final group game because that would guarantee a home semifinal, and that advantage should swing the tie in their favor. The Welsh have a formidable record at the Cardiff City Stadium, playing in front of what has been billed as a “Red Wall” of passionate supporters; Bellamy’s team should win this game to seal another home tie against Italy in the final.
Winner: Wales
Final, Wales vs. Italy: Despite being the highest-ranked nation in the playoffs, sitting 12th in the FIFA Rankings, Italy lack a proven goal scorer, and they struggle to break opponents down.
If key men Sandro Tonali and Giacomo Raspadori are fit and in form, Italy should have enough to shade this tie, but Wales are strong at home, and if these two meet in the final, don’t be surprised if Wales inflict yet another playoff heartbreak on the Azzurri.
Prediction: Wales advances
Path 2: Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Albania
Semifinal 1, Ukraine vs. Sweden: While Ukraine have home advantage, the ongoing conflict in the country means Sergiy Rebrov’s team will likely play this tie in neutral Poland, and that could tilt the game in Sweden’s favor.
Sweden were dismal in qualification, finishing at the bottom of Group B without a win in six games, but their Nations League success last year sealed a playoff spot, and star forwards Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres will surely see this as a second chance to qualify that they cannot pass up. Sweden are hugely fortunate to be in the playoffs, but they will be too strong for Ukraine.
Winner: Sweden
Semifinal 2, Poland vs. Albania: Poland have become the team that always qualifies for major tournaments but fails to deliver once on the big stage. But this is a tough tie.
Albania, coached by former Barcelona and Brazil defender Sylvinho, are a well-organized, high-energy team, and they will be confident in beating Poland away from home. At 37, this will be Robert Lewandowski‘s final World Cup campaign. If the Barcelona forward is on form, Poland will win. If not, back Albania.
Winner: Albania
Final, Sweden vs. Albania: Albania are good enough to cause any opponent problems and could quite easily travel to Sweden and win. But if Sweden overcome Ukraine and seal a home game in the final, it would be tough to deny a team with the attacking qualities of Isak, Gyokeres and Anthony Elanga.
Sweden, now coached by Graham Potter, really shouldn’t have this opportunity to reach the World Cup, but they are the strongest squad in Path B, so they will qualify.
Prediction: Sweden advances
Path 3: Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo
Semifinal 1, Turkey vs. Romania: Turkey showed their strength by earning a 2-2 draw against Spain in Seville in their final Group E game, a result that restored some pride after a 6-0 home defeat against the European champions in September. Having scored 12 goals in three games against Bulgaria (twice) and Georgia in between the Spain fixtures, Turkey are clearly an attacking force and loaded with top talent, including Arda Güler, Kenan Yildiz, Deniz Gül and midfielder Hakan Çalhanoglu.
Romania, coached by the 80-year-old Mircea Lucescu, are unpredictable but talented. They will be brave and confident in this game, but Turkey should be too strong.
Winner: Turkey
Semifinal 2, Slovakia vs. Kosovo: Kosovo are the most dangerous outsiders in the European playoffs and much stronger than their FIFA ranking of 80th would suggest. Franco Foda’s team lack big names, but their players are based throughout Europe, and Kosovo ran Switzerland close in Group B, beating Sweden home and away before being held at home by the Swiss in the final game.
Slovakia shocked Germany with a 2-0 home win in qualification before losing 6-0 to Julian Nagelsmann’s side in Leipzig in the final game. Slovakia are ranked higher (45th) by FIFA, but Kosovo are a better team right now.
Winner: Kosovo
Final, Kosovo vs. Turkey: On paper, Turkey are big favorites to make it through Path C to the finals, but home advantage could be decisive for Kosovo if they eliminate Slovakia.
Having only become a FIFA member in 2015, following a declaration of independence from Serbia in 2008, the national fervor for home games in Pristina makes Kosovo a formidable opponent for Turkey. This could be a game in which Turkey’s superior talent and depth counts for little against a Kosovo team determined to make history by qualifying for a first World Cup.
Prediction: Kosovo advances
Path 4: Denmark, North Macedonia, Czechia, Republic of Ireland
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Semifinal 1, Denmark vs. North Macedonia: Denmark threw away an automatic qualification spot by drawing at home to Belarus and then losing away to Scotland in their final two games having been in control of Group C, so their status as favorites in this tie should be tempered by the scars of their group-stage failure.
North Macedonia’s 7-1 defeat away to Wales in their final game should not be taken as a true gauge of their capabilities, though. Blagoja Milevski’s team drew home and away with group winners Belgium and they will relish their underdog status, just as they did when eliminating Italy with a 1-0 win in Palermo in the 2018 playoffs. Denmark should be too strong at home, but North Macedonia are primed to record another shocking result.
Winner: North Macedonia
Semifinal 2, Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: The Czechs were locked in a surprise battle with the Faroe Islands for the runners-up spot in Group L and almost blew it with a 2-1 defeat away to the perennial minnows in Tórshavn in October. But Jaroslav Kostl’s squad, which includes West Ham’s Tomás Soucek and Bayer Leverkusen forward Patrik Schick, held their nerve to seal second position behind Croatia.
Ireland came from nowhere to claim a playoff place, though, with a shocking 2-0 home win against Portugal before Troy Parrott‘s hat trick in Budapest, including a 96th-minute winner, denied Hungary and claimed second spot for Heimir Hallgrimsson’s team. Ireland have momentum and belief, so they can win this tie and book a home final in Dublin.
Winner: Republic of Ireland
Final, North Macedonia vs. Republic of Ireland: Home advantage in a game to decide a place in the World Cup will be crucial, and Ireland, backed by a crowd of 52,000 in Dublin, might just have enough to make it the World Cup.
North Macedonia are more individually talented, and the same applies to Denmark if they make the final, but Ireland coach Hallgrimsson made his name guiding Iceland to a series of shocking wins, and he can do it again if key players Troy Parrott, Caoimhin Kelleher and Evan Ferguson are fit and in form in March.
Prediction: Republic of Ireland advances
Intercontinental Playoffs
The playoffs, to be held in March, will determine the final two qualifiers. Six countries will take part. Each of the five confederations (apart from UEFA) will provide one country, while the host confederation (Concacaf) receives a second slot.
The two nations with the best FIFA world ranking will be seeded and go straight into one of the two finals. The four other countries will be drawn to play a semifinal, feeding through to play a seed for one of the two places at the World Cup.
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New Caledonia or Jamaica vs. Congo DR
Congo DR await the winners of the New Caledonia vs. Jamaica semifinal, and it would be a huge upset if Jamaica fail to book a final clash against the African nation.
New Caledonia are the lowest-ranked team in the playoffs, sitting at 149th in the FIFA rankings, and coach Johann Sidaner told ESPN last month that his team, from an archipelago in the South Pacific, have a “1 percent chance” of qualifying for the World Cup.
Jamaica blew their chance of automatic qualification with a 0-0 draw at home to Curacao in the final round of Concacaf qualifiers, and that result forced coach Steve McClaren to quit. Jamaica will be too strong for New Caledonia, and they will face Congo DR as underdogs.
Congo DR have Premier League experience in Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Arthur Masuaku and Axel Tuanzebe, but Jamaica can also rely on Brentford‘s Rico Henry and Ethan Pinnock. This tie is a close call, but Congo DR look to have just a little bit more quality and will claim the qualification spot.
Prediction: Congo DR advances
Bolivia or Suriname vs. Iraq
Iraq won a two-legged Asian playoff against United Arab Emirates to clinch their place in the Intercontinental playoffs — their winning goal was a penalty 17 minutes into stoppage time.
Due to their FIFA ranking of 58th, Iraq are seeded through to the final, where they will expect to face Bolivia. Coached by former Australia coach Graham Arnold, Iraq’s squad are largely based in the Middle East, but former Manchester United youngster Zidane Iqbal, now at FC Utrecht, is a player with European experience.
Suriname, ranked 123rd, have a squad of players based in Europe, but while Bolivia’s squad is largely drawn from South American leagues, they have a recent win against Brazil on their form guide, so they should be too strong for Suriname. If Bolivia face Iraq in the final, it will be tough to call, but their experience of playing at altitude could be crucial in Mexico, and it should give them the edge.
Prediction: Bolivia advances
WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump on Tuesday repeated his call for Congress to pass legislation that would rein in college sports at a time athletes are allowed to move freely from school to school and command salaries that put athletic departments in financial peril.
Trump’s remarks came at a White House event honoring some 100 athletes from seven teams that won NCAA championships in 2025.
Trump this month signed an executive order that would limit eligibility to five years, allow one transfer without penalty for undergraduates, stop pay-for-play schemes and build in protections for women’s and Olympic sports.
Aspects of the executive order might not withstand legal scrutiny, which is why Trump and some college sports stakeholders are asking for federal legislation that would codify restrictions and grant the NCAA an antitrust exemption to enforce rules.
Dozens of athletes have challenged NCAA eligibility rules with the hope of extending their college careers and, in turn, their ability to earn money through name, image and likeness deals. He said it’s unfair for athletes right out of high school to compete against 28- or 29-year-olds.
“It’s a very precarious position the courts have left us in,” Trump said, adding that the 2025 settlement of House v. the NCAA created a professional model that has led to financial instability for colleges. “And now it’s a total and complete mess. But we’re going to get it fixed up and we’ve got fantastic people doing it. So we need now Congress to act to clear up the confusion created by the courts and institute permanent reforms to protect college sports at every level, especially some sports.”
The national championship teams honored were Oklahoma State in men’s golf, Texas A&M in women’s volleyball, Wake Forest in men’s tennis, Georgia in women’s tennis, Youngstown State in women’s bowling, Florida State in women’s soccer and West Virginia in mixed rifle.
“Seventy-five percent of Olympians competing for Team USA played as college athletes,” Trump said. “If we don’t straighten out this, we’re not going to have much of an Olympic team because you have so many of these sports, especially certain sports where it’s like the minor leagues, call it the major leagues, whatever you want. But we’ve trained unbelievable athletes to go in and win the gold medal. Without college sports and without your ability to go into college sports and compete and learn how to play and get better, we’re not going to have much of an Olympic team anymore.”
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Eli Manning retired in 2019 and missed out in his first year of Hall of Fame eligibility in 2025. He was passed over again earlier this year but still fired back at a fan who claimed one of his contemporaries was the better quarterback.
On Tuesday, a social media user floated a theory about former Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan, who now oversees football operations as the team’s president, last played in an NFL game in 2022. He announced his retirement in 2024, making him eligible for Hall of Fame consideration beginning in 2028.
“Matt Ryan was a better QB than Eli Manning… people just worship rings. Agree or nah,” the post read.
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New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning greets Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan after their game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Oct. 22, 2018. (Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports)
Manning caught wind of the suggestion and weighed in, pointing to the two Super Bowl-winning teams he was part of during his standout run with the New York Giants.
“I will ponder this while I play with my rings…,” Manning wrote in a quote-tweet.
Ryan’s statistical production surpasses Manning’s, at least on paper. He was named NFL MVP in 2016, an honor Manning never earned. Ryan is also the most accomplished player in Falcons history and finished his career with more than 62,000 regular-season passing yards, compared with Manning’s 57,023.
NFC head coach Eli Manning leads a huddle during a practice session before the NFL Pro Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nev., on Feb. 4, 2023. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Both quarterbacks were selected to four Pro Bowls, but the key difference lies in championships. Manning won the Super Bowl in 2007 and 2011, while Ryan reached it once but fell short. Manning threw for a single season career-best 4,933 during the run leading up to the second Super Bowl title.
Ryan threw for 284 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions to help the Falcons build a 25-point lead in the championship game — a matchup remembered for the New England Patriots engineering the largest comeback in Super Bowl history.
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan passes the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the second half at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Jan. 2, 2022. (Rich Barnes/USA TODAY Sports)
Manning struck a measured tone in February when discussing his Hall of Fame chances.
“If I never get in the Hall of Fame, it’s not going to change anything,” Manning told Forbes. “I’m not gonna be bitter or mad or upset, and if I do get in, it would just be an unbelievable honor to be associated with some of the great athletes and football players ever. But it’s not going to change my outlook or my approach to how I feel about the game of football.”
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The Falcons have reached the Super Bowl twice in franchise history, first in 1998, but the team is still chasing its first elusive championship.
The Giants marked their 100th season in 2024, winning four Super Bowls over the franchise’s century-long history.
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Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell has committed to Duke, he told ESPN on Tuesday.
Blackwell, who visited Duke on Monday, was the best guard to enter the transfer portal this spring.
“It just felt right,” Blackwell told ESPN. “It felt like the right situation for me. I just connected with Coach [Jon Scheyer] on a different level. We built a connection in these past weeks of just talking to him and him selling why Duke is the right spot for me. Me taking this visit was just confirmation on why I should be at Duke.”
Blackwell, a 6-foot-4 guard, earned third-team All-Big Ten honors this past season after averaging a career-high 19.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists, shooting nearly 39% from 3-point range.
He was at his best in the postseason. Blackwell had 34 points and 10 rebounds in the third round of the Big Ten tournament against Washington, following it with 31 points on 9-for-17 shooting in an overtime win over Illinois. While Wisconsin was upset by 12-seed High Point in the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament, Blackwell finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds against the Panthers.
Blackwell, who is represented by Todd Ramasar and Alexis Liatsos at Life Sports Agency, will have the opportunity to carry that momentum over to Duke.
“Their pitch to me was, come here, have freedom,” Blackwell said. “You can come here and be a draft pick, and that’s always my dream. Come here and help us win a national championship. Those are just things I love to hear. I love the campus, I love the people surrounding Duke. That’s why I made my choice to be a Blue Devil.”
Blackwell, who is still going through the NBA draft process, is joining a backcourt that includes returnees Caleb Foster (8.3 PPG) and Cayden Boozer (7.7 PPG), as well as five-star recruit Deron Rippey Jr. The junior guard said when he entered the portal that he wants to show more on-ball responsibility, meaning Scheyer will have plenty of options as playmakers next season.
“They have four PGs. I would consider myself a point guard,” Blackwell said. “We’re just going to push each other everyday. [When you] have a deep backcourt like we’re going to have, it’s going to be a matchup nightmare for teams. I’m just so excited to play with those guys and challenge those guys. And they challenge me every single day.”
Scheyer has been reloading his roster since last month’s Elite Eight loss to UConn. Projected top-five pick Cameron Boozer is out the door, with projected first-rounder Isaiah Evans expected to follow. Maliq Brown is out of eligibility and freshman Nikolas Khamenia entered the portal and transferred to UConn.
But Duke received positive news on Monday with the return of honorable mention All-ACC big man Patrick Ngongba II, while Cayden Boozer, Foster and potentially Dame Sarr are also likely to return to Durham.
The Blue Devils are also bringing in the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class, led by three top-25 seniors, and added Belmont transfer Drew Scharnowski this past weekend.
But Scheyer desperately needed a high-level scorer to round out his roster, an experienced bucket-getter to lead the offense. And he landed the best one on the market in Blackwell.
“Their track record with producing pros definitely played a part in it,” he said. “Not so much with them producing pros, but them developing pros. I don’t think at any other school, there’s only a few, where you can get that certain level of development. That’s major for me.”
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