Business
Tax, spending and investment: Where the Budget ranks in history
Rachel Reeves’s second Budget as Chancellor has set the UK on a path towards levels of tax, spending and investment not seen for many years, according to the latest economic forecasts.
Here the PA news agency looks at what those forecasts suggest about the likely future of the country’s finances – and how they compare with decades gone by.
– Tax burden to reach new all-time high
The UK’s tax burden was already set to hit record levels in the years ahead, but new data shows the figure peaking even higher than previously thought.
The tax burden, or tax take, is a measure of how much the Government collects in taxation, expressed as a proportion of the total value of the economy.
When Rachel Reeves delivered her spring financial statement in March 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast the tax burden to reach the equivalent of 37.7% of GDP by 2027/28: the highest level since current records began in 1948.
The OBR is now forecasting it to reach 37.6% by 2027/28 but then go on climbing to an even higher record of 38.3% in 2030/31.
This is more than five percentage points above the pre-pandemic level of 32.9% in 2019/20.
The main drivers of the increase are personal taxes, such as the extension of the threshold freeze at which people start paying higher rates of income tax, plus the increase in employer national insurance contributions, the OBR said.
– Spending on health and disability benefits passes £100 billion for first time
Government spending on welfare is also forecast to continue at record levels.
Spending on health and disability benefits per year is likely to pass £100 billion for the first time, rising from £83.1 billion in 2025/26 to £103.6 billion in 2029/30.
This is up from the previous forecasts of £81.2 billion in 2025/26 and £97.7 billion in 2029/30.
The OBR acknowledges there is “uncertainty” around the future costs of welfare spending, because of “the growth of disability and health caseloads, which have increased very sharply since the pandemic”.
The latest forecasts have been calculated on the assumption that the number of people requiring these benefits will continue to rise, but at a slower pace than recently.
However, if growth continues at rates seen since the pandemic, this could increase spending in 2029/30 by around £11 billion, the OBR added.
Total government spending on welfare per year is forecast to rise from £333.0 billion in 2025/26 to a new all-time high of £389.4 billion in 2029/30.
This is higher than the previous forecasts of £326.1 billion in 2025/26 and £373.4 billion in 2029/30.
The revised forecasts reflect the reversal of cuts to winter fuel payments and health-related benefits, along with the removal of the two-child limit within Universal Credit.
– Longest sustained period of high government spending since Second World War
Total government public spending is forecast to remain at the equivalent of between 44% and 45% of GDP for nearly the entire decade.
This is almost five percentage points higher than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
It also represents the longest sustained period of spending at this level since the Second World War.
The forecast suggests spending will not fall below the equivalent of 44% of GDP for nine financial years in a row, from 2022/23 to 2030/31.
This easily surpasses the two other post-war periods when spending was 44% of GDP or above, in the three years from 1974/75 to 1976/77 and the three years from 2009/10 to 2011/12.
Spending at the end of the last century, in the financial year 1999/2000, stood at 34.6% of GDP.
– Debt as percentage of GDP remains at levels last seen in early 1960s
The headline measure of public sector net debt in the UK, which includes the Bank of England, is forecast to remain between 95% and 97% for the rest of the decade.
This level of debt was last seen at the end of the financial year 1962/63, when debt stood at 98.2% of GDP: a time when Harold Macmillan was Conservative prime minister, there were only two television channels in the country, and The Beatles had just released their debut album Please Please Me.
Debt at the end of the last century, in 1999/2000, stood at 32.4% of GDP.
– Highest sustained level of government investment since 1970s
Government investment is forecast to remain above the equivalent of 2% of GDP in every year for the rest of the decade: the highest sustained level since the 1970s.
Public sector net investment stood at the equivalent of 2.4% of GDP in 2023/24 and is forecast to climb to 2.9% in 2027/28, before falling back to 2.5% by 2030/31.
This would represent eight consecutive years with investment above 2%: a trend not seen in the UK for more than 40 years.
Government investment as a proportion of GDP was above 2% in every year from 1948/49, when current records began, to 1980/81.
It then remained below 2% in almost every year until the late 2010s, save for 1983/84, 2004/05 and 2008/09-2010/11.
Spending rose above 2% in the two years from 2017/18 to 2018/19, then again from 2020/21 to 2021/22, but in each case it fell back below 2% the following year.
Business
India’s $5 Trillion Economy Push Explained: Why Modi Govt Wants To Merge 12 Banks Into 4 Mega ‘World-Class’ Lending Giants
India’s Public Sector Banks Merger: The Centre is mulling over consolidating public-sector banks, and officials involved in the process say the long-term plan could eventually bring down the number of state-owned lenders from 12 to possibly just 4. The goal is to build a banking system that is large enough in scale, has deeper capital strength and is prepared to meet the credit needs of a fast-growing economy.
The minister explained that bigger banks are better equipped to support large-scale lending and long-term projects. “The country’s economy is moving rapidly toward the $5 trillion mark. The government is active in building bigger banks that can meet rising requirements,” she said.
Why India Wants Larger Banks
Sitharaman recently confirmed that the government and the Reserve Bank of India have already begun detailed conversations on another round of mergers. She said the focus is on creating “world-class” banks that can support India’s expanding industries, rising infrastructure investments and overall credit demand.
She clarified that this is not only about merging institutions. The government and RBI are working on strengthening the entire banking ecosystem so that banks grow naturally and operate in a stable environment.
According to her, the core aim is to build stronger, more efficient and globally competitive banks that can help sustain India’s growth momentum.
At present, the country has a total of 12 public sector banks: the State Bank of India (SBI), the Punjab National Bank (PNB), the Bank of Baroda, the Canara Bank, the Union Bank of India, the Bank of India, the Indian Bank, the Central Bank of India, the Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) and the UCO Bank.
What Happens To Employees After Merger?
Whenever bank mergers are discussed, employees become anxious. A merger does not only combine balance sheets; it also brings together different work cultures, internal systems and employee expectations.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, several mergers caused discomfort among staff, including dissatisfaction over new roles, delayed promotions and uncertainty about reporting structures. Some officers who were promoted before mergers found their seniority diluted afterward, which created further frustration.
The finance minister addressed the concerns, saying that the government and the RBI are working together on the merger plan. She stressed that earlier rounds of consolidation had been successful. She added that the country now needs large, global-quality banks “where every customer issue can be resolved”. The focus, she said, is firmly on building world-class institutions.
‘No Layoffs, No Branch Closures’
She made one point unambiguous: no employee will lose their job due to the upcoming merger phase. She said that mergers are part of a natural process of strengthening banks, and this will not affect job security.
She also assured that no branches will be closed and no bank will be shut down as part of the consolidation exercise.
India last carried out a major consolidation drive in 2019-20, reducing the number of public-sector banks from 21 to 12. That round improved the financial health of many lenders.
With the government preparing for the next phase, the goal is clear. India wants large and reliable banks that can support a rapidly growing economy and meet the needs of a country expanding faster than ever.
Business
Stock market holidays in December: When will NSE, BSE remain closed? Check details – The Times of India
Stock market holidays for December: As November comes to a close and the final month of the year begins, investors will want to know on which days trading sessions will be there and on which days stock markets are closed. are likely keeping a close eye on year-end portfolio adjustments, global cues, and corporate earnings.For this year, the only major, away from normal scheduled market holidays in December is Christmas, observed on Thursday, December 25. On this day, Indian stock markets, including the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), will remain closed across equity, derivatives, and securities lending and borrowing (SLB) segments. Trading in currency and interest rate derivatives segments will continue as usual.Markets are expected to reopen on Friday, December 26, as investors return to monitor global developments and finalize year-end positioning. Apart from weekends, Christmas is the only scheduled market holiday this month, making December relatively quiet compared with other festive months, with regards to stock markets.The last trading session in November, which was November 28 (next two days being the weekend) ended flat. BSE Sensex slipped 13.71 points, or 0.02 per cent, to settle at 85,706.67, after hitting an intra-day high of 85,969.89 and a low of 85,577.82, a swing of 392.07 points. Meanwhile, the NSE Nifty fell 12.60 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 26,202.95, halting its two-day rally.
Business
North Tyneside GP says debt stress causing mental health issues
A GP says patients are presenting with mental health problems because of stress they feel over their levels of personal debt.
According to Citizens Advice, north-east England has the second highest number of people who require professional assistance with debt problems – only London is higher.
Debt charity StepChange said in 2024 the highest concentration of their clients were in the North East, with 37 clients per 10,000 adults.
Dr Kamlesh Sreekissoon, who works as a GP in North Tyneside, said people were juggling “three or four jobs” in the build up to Christmas in order to manage and subsequently struggling with their mental health.
The most common reason for personal debt as reported by Stepchange’s North East clients is a rise in the cost of living (19.3%) and a lack of control over finances (19%).
Both these statistics outstrip the UK figures of 17.7% and 17.9% respectively.
Citizens Advice said thousands of people were falling deeper into debt to meet the cost of basic essentials such as food and fuel, rather than luxuries, but that people also felt under pressure to provide for Christmas.
Dr Sreekissoon said the stress caused by the debt people faced was compounded by issues relating to their family situations.
“At this time of year you will see people juggling three or four jobs, also after caring for elderly relatives, parents, [they’re] stressed out and unfortunately struggling with their mental health,” said Dr Sreekissoon.
He said the debt his patients described was not caused by buying unnecessary things, but by simply struggling to make ends meet.
“It’s more the basics,” he said. “I see people taking on working long hours, doing two or three jobs, and just being kind of stretched out, not being able to see their kids, and that just burns people out which is really sad to see”.
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