Atlantic hurricane season is almost upon us, and the early signs indicate it might be less active than usual. But that’s no reason to delete your weather app and ignore the forecast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting eight to 14 named tropical systems, of which three to six will become hurricanes and one to three will be Category 3 or higher.

“What’s driving this forecast is largely an El Niño event,” said NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs.

Characterized by a tongue of hot water stretching across the Pacific, El Niño is likely to emerge this summer. That stretch of warm ocean rearranges weather patterns around the world. In the case of the tropical Atlantic, El Niño stirs up winds that make it hard for hurricanes to spin up. Those that do can sometimes be torn apart by what’s going on in the upper atmosphere. (The opposite is true in the Pacific, and NOAA is predicting a very active season in that ocean basin.)

During the three past super El Niños, accumulated cyclone energy—a metric that factors in storms’ strength and longevity—was well below normal.

That said, El Niño, even an extremely strong one, is only one of many factors that impact hurricane season. Hot local ocean temperatures can help storms form and gain strength, and the Atlantic is currently warmer than normal.

At the same time, Sahara dust can gum up the atmosphere and inhibit storms from forming. It’s also notoriously hard to predict when plumes of it will kick up. That’s what happened last year, when a below-average number of named storms formed despite an active forecast. Despite the lower-than-expected activity, last year still spawned Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the Atlantic basin.

All of which is to say that the seasonal forecast is a handy guide for what to expect, and it’s great for federal and state agencies to preposition supplies and resources. But it’s what happens with individual storms that ultimately matters.

“Even though we’re expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it’s important to understand it only takes one,” Jacobs said, noting that even in quiet years, Category 5 storms have still made landfall.

The Trump administration has slashed staffing at NOAA and reduced the collection of some data, such as weather balloons, that can impact forecasts. Jacobs touted the value of new observations, including aerial drones that will be deployed operationally for the first time.

NOAA has also ramped up the use of artificial intelligence weather models trained on historical data. During the 2025 hurricane season, the agency tested an experimental hurricane model developed with Google DeepMind. Late last year, it also rolled out a suite of AI weather models to use in operational forecasting, in addition to traditional weather models that use equations to forecast the weather.

The agency says that the AI version of its flagship model provides better prediction of the tracks of tropical cyclones—the generic name for hurricanes—though it lags traditional weather models in predicting their intensity.

A virtual private network (VPN) favoured by cyber criminals to mask data exfiltration, fraud ransomware attacks and other criminality has been dismantled in Operation Saffron, a Franco-Dutch led action supported by Europol and other agencies, including the UK’s National Crime Agency (NCA), and private sector partner Bitdefender.

The First VPN service was heavily used among Russian-speaking threat actors, and according to Europol, was used in “almost every” major cyber investigation it has undertaken in the past few years. Besides obscuring malicious traffic from law enforcement surveillance, First VPN’s operators are also known to have offered services such as anonymised payments and hidden infrastructure.

“For years, cyber criminals saw this VPN service as a gateway to anonymity. They believed it would keep them beyond the reach of law enforcement. This operation proves them wrong. Taking it offline removes a critical layer of protection that criminals depended on to operate, communicate and evade law enforcement,” said Edvardas Šileris, head of the European Cybercrime Centre at Europol.

A spokesperson for Bitdefender added: “We are extremely pleased with the successful takedown of First VPN, and congratulate global law enforcement, and all those involved.

“Operation Saffron exemplifies the power of collaboration between the public and private security sector in dismantling illegal online activities, in this case, a VPN service designed to conceal attacks. It also serves a message to criminals who believe the dark web covers their actions and guarantees their anonymity. If they become the target of an international effort, they can’t hide.” 

Operation Saffron marks the first time Bitdefender Labs’ virtual Draco Team unit has worked on a counter-VPN action, having previously been involved in a number of other operations including stings on the Hansa dark web marketplace, 2024’s Operation Endgame targeting botnets, and actions against ransomware gangs including GandCrab and its successor REvil.