The rupee slipped to a fresh all-time low against the US dollar on Wednesday, extending its recent losing streak as rising oil prices, overseas debt repayments and importer demand for hedging continued to weigh on the currency.The rupee weakened 0.1% to 95.7450 per dollar, moving past its previous record low of 95.7375 touched on Tuesday.Analysts said the pressure on the rupee has intensified since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict earlier this year, which has sharply pushed up global crude oil prices and strained India’s external sector.Brent crude prices have risen nearly 50% since the Iran conflict began on February 28, while the rupee has weakened by more than 5% during the same period.

Oil shock weighs on India’s economic outlook

Economists have lowered India’s growth forecasts and raised inflation projections amid concerns over persistently high energy costs.“A collapse in oil prices or a resumption in portfolio flows are prerequisites for a durable turnaround in the rupee’s bearish run,” Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS, said in a note quoted by Reuters.Traders and analysts told Reuters that the rupee’s losses would likely have been much steeper without regular interventions by the Reserve Bank of India and the use of regulatory measures to stabilise the currency.Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the weekend urged measures to conserve foreign exchange reserves, while the government on Tuesday increased import duties on precious metals in an effort to curb demand and support the rupee.

Markets speculate on possible RBI response

Markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of interest rate hikes to defend the currency and contain inflationary pressure.“Markets are pricing in rate hikes to defend the rupee and address potential inflationary pressures, although we do not expect policy tightening to be the immediate response,” Rao said.Speaking at a conference in Switzerland on Tuesday, RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said monetary policy could look through temporary supply shocks but may need to respond if inflation pressures become persistent.Malhotra also indicated that while India has so far avoided raising domestic fuel prices despite higher global crude rates, prolonged tensions in the Middle East may eventually force price hikes.Global financial markets remained cautious amid uncertainty over the Iran conflict and persistent inflation concerns in the United States.Foreign exchange markets were largely range-bound globally, while technology-focused equities gained on renewed optimism surrounding artificial intelligence despite stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Tui has assured holidaymakers that their peak summer flights will go ahead, despite fears of aviation fuel shortages caused by the Iran conflict.

Mathias Kiep, CFO of Tui Group, told The Independent: “I’m very much convinced that we will see no shortage in the next 10 weeks. There’s definitely enough fuel.”

Speaking as Europe’s biggest holiday company reported its financial results for October 2025-March 2026, he said: “We think that the discussion on fuel is a little bit artificial as we do see no shortages for the next few weeks.

“I would also see no impact in the summer at all except prices – and for the higher prices, we are luckily hedged.

“We do see that Europe now gets more oil from other countries like Nigeria because the increased prices made the production there profitable. We see that consumption is significantly lower than a year before and refinery capacity is also up.”

He said that even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed in the long term, there will be no shortage.

The firm reported a “very successful” first half of its financial year between October 2025 and March this year. But it has warned that the second half “will require great dedication and flexibility”.

The war in Iran delivered a €40m (£35m) hit to profits – due to a combination of lost sales and the extra costs of bringing back holidaymakers from the Middle East and Asia.

In addition, Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica cost the company €5m (£4.3m).

Sebastian Ebel, chief executive of the Tui group, said: “We offer our customers a high level of security and quality, especially in turbulent times. The package holiday remains the gold standard.”

The occupancy rate on Tui cruises fell from 97 to 93 per cent due to the war in Iran. Two ships from the German cruise operation were stuck in the Gulf for 10 weeks.

Air bookings for the summer are 7 per cent below last year. The firm said people were happy to book two or three weeks in advance, but not two or three months.

Tui has seen no decline in the intention to travel, and no shift from air to surface transport. The hantavirus scare has had no impact on cruise demand.

Read more: Britons ditching Spain after rival destination drops EU biometric requirement

Tui has revealed a 10% drop in UK summer bookings as consumers hesitate to make bookings and switch destinations, while the holiday firm took a 61 million euro (£39 million) hit from the Iran war and hurricanes in Jamaica.

Europe’s largest travel operator is one of several firms to be impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, which began at the end of February.

It said booked revenues for summer were down 7% compared with 2025 for its tours and airline, falling to 10% for the UK market alone.

The US and Israel’s war with Iran has led to a shift in demand from eastern to western Mediterranean destinations, while customers were displaying greater caution and making bookings closer to departure dates, Tui said.

The company also pointed to a “competitive” market for travel.

Nevertheless, Tui said it was expecting Spain, including the Balearics and the Canary Islands, and Greece to be top destinations over the summer.

The German business revealed last month that the Iran war cost it around 40 million euros (£34.7 million) after it was forced to repatriate around 5,000 passengers from two cruise ships anchored in ports in Abu Dhabi.

Tui said on Wednesday that the cruise ships had now departed safely, during a pause in the hostilities, and will commence their summer season itineraries in the Mediterranean from mid-May.

It also said it took a roughly 21 million euro (£18 million) hit during the first half of the financial year from the impact of hurricanes that swept across Jamaica in October last year.

Tui reported an underlying loss before interest and tax, and at constant currencies, of 111 million euros (£96 million) for the first half – an improvement on the 156 million euro (£135 million) loss reported the year before.

It is on track to deliver a full-year operating profit of between 1.1 and 1.4 billion euros, down from previous targets of roughly between 1.5 and 1.6 billion euros.

Sebastian Ebel, Tui’s chief executive, said: “The very strong results give us confidence for the second half of the year.

“Due to geopolitical challenges and dynamic market conditions, it will require great dedication and flexibility.

“We offer our customers a high level of security and quality, especially in turbulent times.

“Package holidays remain the gold standard.”