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Ultimate Draft Board: Perfect picks for every round in a 12-team league

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Ultimate Draft Board: Perfect picks for every round in a 12-team league


Fantasy football drafts are all about collecting the best possible values, but we all know those special players exist whom we badly want on our squad.

Whether it’s the young, up-and-coming wide receiver on our favorite team, a sleeper running back no one is talking about or this year’s big breakout at tight end, these players add an extra level of excitement to the roster construction process.

This round-by-round analysis will give you an idea of what’s going through my head on draft day, headlined by those players I have circled on my cheat sheet. Note that I used average draft position (ADP) data from Draft Sharks’ terrific Market Index Tool in order to ensure this roadmap would be useful for as many of you as possible.

For a more philosophical look at the fantasy landscape, including strategies for drafting, trading and working waivers in all types of formats, be sure to check out the fantasy football playbook column.

Here it is: my personal recipe for a 2025 fantasy football championship in a 12-team league.


The core

When I’m making my selections, I often ask myself a question: “Am I drafting this player at his ceiling?” If the answer is “yes,” I generally aim for someone with more upside. Of course, all the players available in the first round or so are likely at or near their ceiling, so this is an opportunity to not overthink it and simply take the best available player on the board.

Round 1: Best available wide receiver … if not Bijan Robinson

Who I choose in the first round will, of course, primarily depend on where I pick, and, for the purposes of this exercise, it’s a tricky year to handicap who will be available since six RBs and six WRs are currently coming off the board in the round.

Same as I laid out in this piece one year ago, I would love to get my hands on Robinson, but that’s simply not happening if I don’t land a top-two pick. Though I’m not aggressively against taking a shot on the other RBs in the round, Robinson is a tier or two above them all, as his top competitors have more sizable concerns, such as Saquon Barkley‘s massive 2024 workload, Jahmyr Gibbs sharing with David Montgomery (plus the Lions’ interior line concerns) and Christian McCaffrey‘s age and injury woes.

If I’m picking in the middle of the first round and thus fail to land Robinson (or top-ranked Ja’Marr Chase), odds are I’ll be choosing an elite wide receiver, namely Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers or Amon-Ra St. Brown. Any receiver from this group will set me up for success in 2025.

Round 2: Jonathan Taylor or best RB available

Same as in Round 1, our pool of available players is very dependent on where we are in the draft order. If I’m near the Round 1/2 turn, I’m eyeing the best available among Ashton Jeanty, De’Von Achane and Nico Collins. If I’m later in the round, the likes of Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams, Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers often make it to my roster.

Taylor hasn’t quite been able to match his breakout 2021 campaign over the past three seasons, but he has remained a clear feature back and was somewhat quietly seventh among RBs in fantasy PPG last season despite the Colts’ QB woes. The QB situation remains a concern, though it could be better if Daniel Jones is under center, which could also improve Taylor’s contributions as a receiver. He’s a solid option in the second round.

I decided to feature Taylor here, but he simply leads a list of several enticing backs in this round that includes Achane, Jacobs, Williams, Chase Brown and Bucky Irving. Especially if I land a wideout in the first round, I feel good about pouncing on any of these backs.

Round 3: Trey McBride

This season is a bit different, in that I’m actively targeting a top tight end and (*spoiler alert*) a top quarterback. The third round is loaded with talent, but if I can land Bowers or McBride in this range, that will give me a sizable edge over the competition, and I simply can’t pass on that value.

McBride is averaging a massive 9.0 targets and 15.4 fantasy points per game since replacing Zach Ertz as the Cardinals’ starting tight end midway through 2023, and the latter number is even more impressive when you consider he dealt with terrible TD luck last season (three total TDs, TE-high 7.9 expected). Despite the lack of scoring, only 10 WRs scored more fantasy points than McBride last season, and he has a path to another heavy workload in 2025.

If I don’t roll with a tight end, McConkey and Tyreek Hill are my targets at WR, James Cook (with a fresh new contract) is a strong RB option and, if I’m picking at the end of the round, I’m not afraid to consider a quarterback. Speaking of which …

Round 4: One of the top four dual-threat QBs

Unlike most years, this is a season in which I’m targeting an elite quarterback. Lamar Jackson (25.3), Josh Allen (22.3), Jalen Hurts (21.0) and Jayden Daniels (20.9) were all top six in fantasy PPG last season and bring elite rushing contributions to the table. I believe these four hold a significant edge over other QB options, and whereas elite passers used to cost a first-round pick in fantasy drafts, we’re able to snag these guys as late as the fourth round in the modern era. Hurts is the most likely QB to fall to the fourth round and, thus, I’ve drafted him most often, but I’m happy if I get any of Hurts, Allen, Jackson or Daniels in this spot.

If not a quarterback, Kenneth Walker III is a favorite RB target and, if I have yet to pick a tight end, I love the value on George Kittle, who led the position in fantasy PPG in 2024.

Round 5: James Conner

Sometimes you have to make the “boring” pick, and the fifth round is flush with unexciting but solid players who can help you grind your way to a fantasy championship.

Conner is my top-ranked available player in this area, and although his age (30) is a concern, there’s enough good here to outweigh the risk. Arizona’s lead back has produced at least 220 touches, 1,080 yards and eight TDs in four consecutive seasons, which includes career highs in yards and touches last season. Conner has finished as a top-20 fantasy back in four straight seasons (top 15 in PPG each year) and is well-positioned for another fringe-RB1 campaign.

If not Conner, D’Andre Swift is an appealing, underrated RB target later in the round. There are a few good WR targets here, as well, including DK Metcalf and Xavier Worthy, one of my favorite breakout candidates. By the way, if I’ve yet to grab a tight end, Sam LaPorta is the final tight end I have a lot of confidence in, so he’ll be on my radar.

Round 6: TreVeyon Henderson

Our first featured rookie, the second-round draft pick has an opportunity to play a very substantial role in an improved New England Patriots offense. The Ohio State product is an effective rusher (his 7.1 YPC last season topped this rookie class) and is expected to be used often as a receiver in Josh McDaniels’ offense. There’s risk that Rhamondre Stevenson will limit Henderson’s ceiling, but considering that Stevenson is 27 and was benched for fumbling too often last season, the rookie very well could quickly take over as the lead running back.

If not Henderson (his ADP is on the rise, so he might cost you a fifth-rounder), there are some appealing wide receivers in this range, including Calvin Ridley (who has new life with No. 1 pick QB Cameron Ward), Travis Hunter, Jameson Williams and George Pickens.


The middle rounds

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Is Michael Pittman Jr. being underdrafted in fantasy?

Mike Clay explains why Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. is too talented to slide in fantasy drafts.

OK, so the core of my team is in place. It’s time to start filling gaps and adding depth. I obviously want players with upside, but I also want guys I feel comfortable placing in my Week 1 lineup. We’ll save the high-risk fliers for later.

Round 7: Jaylen Waddle or Rome Odunze

Though I’ve already mentioned a ton of wide receivers in this piece, I haven’t actually featured many as a primary target. The reason? Incredible depth at the position. We’re here in the seventh round, and the likes of Jerry Jeudy, Waddle, Odunze and Chris Olave (among others) are still available.

Waddle has the look of a terrific post-hype target following a bizarre 2024 in which he battled injuries and the Dolphins faced two-high safeties at a league-high rate. A top-25 receiver in fantasy PPG the prior three seasons and still positioned as one of Tua Tagovailoa‘s top targets (especially following Jonnu Smith‘s departure), Waddle is an intriguing bounce-back candidate. Odunze, meanwhile, is looking for a leap forward after an inconsistent rookie season in which he finished top 12 among receivers in routes and end zone targets but 35th or lower in targets, receptions yards and TDs. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago’s new-look, Ben Johnson-led offense, but Odunze, the No. 9 pick in 2024, is a near lock to be a featured target.

Chris Godwin is a player I’m monitoring in this range, and although he’s risky as he recovers from injury, he has WR1 upside when back in the mix.

Kaleb Johnson is a name to watch at RB here, especially as his ADP continues to dip. The third-round rookie is expected to essentially replace Najee Harris as the Steelers’ lead rusher, with Jaylen Warren also involved, primarily as a receiver. Johnson might max out as an RB2 with Warren in the fold, but he has a path to big carry and TD totals in what will likely be a run-first offense under Arthur Smith.

Round 8: Jakobi Meyers, Matthew Golden or the best available WR

In deeper leagues (e.g. ones in which we must start three WRs and a flex), we’re still looking for a Week 1 starter, but many of us are now done filling out our lineup and are on to stocking our bench with talent.

A top-30 fantasy WR four seasons in a row, Meyers is coming off a career year in most categories, and with Geno Smith, he’ll be working with the best QB he has had since Tom Brady threw 39 balls his way in 2019. Golden’s 4.29 wheels prompted Green Bay to pick him in the first round of April’s draft, and he very well could be Jordan Love‘s top target right out of the gate.

I highlighted Meyers and the rookie Golden, but I like quite a few receivers in this range, including seasoned veterans Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs. Kupp is 32 years old and has changed teams, but he remains positioned for a featured role in Seattle. Diggs is 31, but he appears fully recovered from last year’s torn ACL and is expected to operate as Drake Maye‘s top target.

Round 9: Ricky Pearsall

We’re officially in dart-throw territory, and the analysis here is similar to last round: I’ll be picking my favorite solid/underrated veteran or taking a shot on a breakout candidate.

Pearsall is, of course, the latter. A preseason gunshot wound last year derailed most of his rookie campaign, but the 2024 first-round pick showed flashes (17-plus fantasy points in three games after his return) and is positioned well for a leap forward with Deebo Samuel gone and Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a knee injury. He could easily outperform his middle-round ADP.

Javonte Williams is a veteran lottery ticket I’m considering in this range. Efficiency has been a problem since he tore his Achilles in 2022, but he’s still only 25 years old, and his lone competition for lead back duties comes from Miles Sanders and fifth-round rookie Jaydon Blue (who makes for a great late flier). It’s not the most inspiring pick, but volume is king and Williams could see it in Dallas.

This is also a good range to throw a dart at the QB position, as fringe QB1s Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott all generally come off the board in this area.

Round 10: Michael Pittman Jr.

Much like Courtland Sutton in this same spot one year ago, Pittman is one of my favorite sleepers this season. His stock is down after a rough 2024 in which he averaged 8.0 fantasy PPG and reached double digits once while trying to overcome Anthony Richardson‘s struggles. It could be more of the same in 2025, but there’s hope here if Daniel Jones wins the Colts’ starting job (a very real possibility). Jones obviously hasn’t been great during his career, but he hasn’t torched his team’s passing game nearly as badly as Richardson. We saw a bit of that last season when Malik Nabers led the NFL in target share (37%) and averaged 17.4 fantasy PPG (ninth best) in eight games with Jones. Pittman has finished top 20 among WRs in fantasy points three of the past four seasons and could return to that mix in his age-27 campaign.

Speaking of Colts, TE Tyler Warren isn’t the worst dart here, but I believe there’s a better value on a rookie TE, which I’ll get to shortly. Also, Buccaneers first-round WR Emeka Egbuka is worth a flier if he makes it to the 10th round, especially if Godwin’s health becomes more of a concern. I’m also in on QB Justin Fields and RB Jordan Mason in this range.


The late-round fliers

At this point, our starting lineup is likely full, which means it’s time to look for values and upside for our bench.

Round 11: Jayden Higgins or Keon Coleman

Eyeing a breakout? Look no further than a pair of recent Round 2 wide receivers. The 6-foot-4 Higgins was extremely productive and efficient during his time at Iowa State and could rise as high as second to only Nico Collins in target priority in a high-pass-volume Texans offense. Coleman appeared on the way to a breakout midway through last season, but a wrist injury crushed his momentum and he ended up a fantasy nonfactor down the stretch. He’ll battle Joshua Palmer to be Josh Allen‘s top perimeter target in 2025.

With the uncertainty in Jacksonville and Dallas, Tank Bigsby, Bhayshul Tuten and Jaydon Blue, respectively, are appealing targets here, as well.

Round 12: Colston Loveland

I foreshadowed this earlier, but Loveland has the look of a no-brainer, late-round lottery ticket this year. The No. 10 pick in April’s draft, Loveland sports big-time statistical upside, as we saw when he handled a massive 37% of Michigan’s targets last season. Loveland is young and, as noted earlier, there are a lot of mouths to feed in Chicago, but it’s tough to pass on his skill set as such a high draft pick at this point in the draft. That’s especially the case considering a rookie has led the TE position in fantasy points each of the past two seasons.

I also like this range a lot if I’m eyeing a quarterback breakout, with J.J. McCarthy, Jordan Love and Drake Maye all on my radar.

Rounds 13-14: High-ceiling insurance and breakout candidates

ADP starts to go out the window late in the draft, so now is the time to get our favorite late-round sleepers and breakout candidates. Below are the players I will be considering with my final few picks.

Quarterback fliers: I generally select one quarterback, especially since a lot of solid QB2 options will go undrafted in most formats. However, if I’m eyeing a sneaky breakout candidate in a deeper league, the likes of Cameron Ward, Michael Penix Jr. and Bryce Young are on my radar.

Running back insurance: A few popular insurance RBs will be gone by now, but a ton remain, including Trey Benson, Tyler Allgeier, Jaylen Wright, Braelon Allen, Isaac Guerendo, Ray Davis and Will Shipley. Pick your favorite! It’s also worth mentioning Jerome Ford here. Second-round rookie Quinshon Judkins was expected to be the Cleveland Browns‘ lead back but has remained unsigned while addressing legal matters related to his July arrest, for which he learned on Aug. 14 he would not face formal charges. Although Judkins is expected to sign soon, Ford should have some added early-season value as Judkins gets up to speed.

Wide receiver veterans: With teams using more wide receivers than ever, there are always notable, high-floor veteran wideouts available late. The headliners are Keenan Allen, Rashid Shaheed, Adam Thielen, Cedric Tillman, DeMario Douglas, Hollywood Brown and Marvin Mims Jr.

Wide receiver rookie and sophomore fliers: Despite the comfort of a safe veteran receiver, I’m typically aiming for more upside here. Those targets include rookies Tre Harris, Jack Bech, Kyle Williams, Luther Burden III and Pat Bryant, as well as second-year wideouts Xavier Legette and Jalen McMillan. I could expand this list even further, but as a simple rule, we should have our eyes on Day 1 and 2 first- and second-year receivers.

Tight end options: There are always a few interesting late-round TE fliers of note. Among those available this season are veterans Chig Okonkwo, Darren Waller and old friend Kyle Pitts Sr., as well as rookies Elijah Arroyo and Mason Taylor.

Rounds 15-16: Kicker and D/ST … or more breakout candidates!

We’re assuming a 16-round draft here, so this is the point where league rules come into play. If we’re drafting here at ESPN, we’ll be forced to select both a defense and a kicker (I’ll cover my favorite targets at those spots later).

However, if there’s flexibility, this is a spot where we can gain a leg up on the competition. Most of our league mates are going to select at least one kicker and defense and let them rot on their roster until Week 1.

Why? I have no idea. Don’t do that.

In lieu of filling those positions, I will gather up insurance policies at other positions (especially running back) and wait for injuries to strike during the preseason. If I have the Ravens defense rostered and Saquon Barkley goes down for the season, I have the Ravens defense. If I instead have Will Shipley rostered when Barkley goes down, I have a potential RB2. Oh, and I can always drop two players and pick up a defense with a good matchup and a decent kicker just prior to Week 1. By the way, if your league is hosted here at ESPN (why wouldn’t it be?), one way around the draft room restrictions is to cut your kicker and defense after the draft in favor of adding more of the high-upside stashes mentioned earlier.

Defense/special teams: History has taught us over and over and over again, we should never reach on D/STs. In fact, seven of the past eight top-scoring fantasy D/STs finished ninth or worse the following season. That includes the 2016 Vikings, 2017 Jaguars, 2018 Bears, 2019 Patriots, 2020 Rams, 2022 Patriots and the 2023 Cowboys. Be smart. Just don’t do it.

The Texans, Steelers, Broncos and Vikings top my D/ST rankings, but since I like to stream, I’ll also be looking at the Cardinals, Patriots and even the Bengals, as each has a relatively light Week 1 opponent.

Kicker: This is as simple as picking the top guy left on the board. Jake Bates, Chase McLaughlin, Cameron Dicker and Brandon Aubrey top my rankings, but don’t reach on any of them. The legend that is Daniel Carlson finished as fantasy’s top kicker in 2021 and 2022. Did that convince you to reach on him a bit in your 2023 draft? If so, you ended up with fantasy’s No. 24 kicker. In fact, prior to Carlson’s streak, the last No. 1-scoring kicker to even finish top 10 the following season was Matt Bryant in 2017. Aubrey (a top-two scorer each of the past two seasons) can’t be trusted, nor can reigning No. 1 fantasy kicker Chris Boswell, whose past five season finishes are first, 17th, 31st, fourth and 25th. Don’t draft a kicker before the final round.


So, there you have it. My game plan for a 2025 fantasy football championship. Remember, this piece should not serve as your only draft board. It’s simply the players I’ve found myself targeting and, with ADP in mind, whom I would love to have on my squad this year.



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Sports

Graziano: Don’t be surprised if these 32 things happen, from an MVP run to rookies who could star

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Graziano: Don’t be surprised if these 32 things happen, from an MVP run to rookies who could star


We are back for our annual edition of preseason surprise predictions — one for each of the 32 NFL teams ahead of the 2025 season.

It’s an odd concept, of course, because if we could predict these things then they shouldn’t really be surprises. But the idea is to collect some of the information I’ve been gathering around the league throughout training camp and present a potential surprise that may or may not have been on your radar as a fan. We hit potential stat leaders, under-the-radar teams, award candidates, sleeper players to watch and position groups that might look better (or worse) than expected.

As always, I recognize that some of these might be more surprising than others, and that those of you who follow a specific team closely might not be as surprised as those who don’t follow said team that closely. But we’re here for all the people, and we hope you enjoy it. Let’s begin in the NFC East.

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH

NFC EAST

Don’t be surprised if … the Cowboys call edge rusher Micah Parsons‘ bluff.

What I’m hearing: Parsons continues to sit out practices as he awaits a contract extension, but this situation has gone sideways. Team owner and GM Jerry Jones believes he and Parsons agreed on the parameters of a deal back in the spring and that the deal changed materially once Parsons got his agent involved. Parsons, meanwhile, believes it’s Jones who is to blame — that the owner should have always anticipated that he’d be dealing with the agent. Parsons has demanded a trade and refused to participate in practice or preseason games.

The Cowboys’ season begins a week from Thursday in Philadelphia, and as the days dwindle, it looks less likely that Parsons will show up and play. Don’t expect a last-minute Hail Mary like the deal Dallas did with QB Dak Prescott on the morning of last season’s opener. Prescott was practicing, and the two sides had been talking. This thing seems a lot more frosty, and Jones appears dug in. Unless Parsons relents and instructs his agent to get a deal done even if it’s on the team’s terms, it’s hard to imagine him getting his extension before the season starts. So then Parsons has a choice to make: play on his current contract or not, with the Cowboys openly holding the threat of a 2026 franchise tag over him.


Don’t be surprised if … the Giants lead the league in sacks.

What I’m hearing: Word out of Giants camp is Abdul Carter is everything the team believed him to be when it made him the third pick in this year’s draft. Adding Carter to a defensive front that already features Brian Burns, Dexter Lawrence II and Kayvon Thibodeaux should give the Giants one of the more fearsome and tireless pass rushes in the entire NFL.

There are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball, even beyond the one about when Russell Wilson will have to pass the starting QB job over to rookie Jaxson Dart. But the defense up front should be the team’s strength, and it could be enough to propel the Giants to a few surprise wins against their tough-looking schedule — especially if they can generate turnovers and give the offense some short fields. New York tied for eighth in sacks last season with 45.


Don’t be surprised if … they keep tinkering with the defense.

What I’m hearing: The reigning Super Bowl champs lost five key contributors from last season’s defense and are working to replace them with younger players they’ve drafted in recent years, anticipating the roster turnover. They’re excited about guys like Moro Ojomo and Jalyx Hunt. They’re extremely fired up about rookie first-round pick Jihaad Campbell. And with two-thirds of their salary cap committed to the offense, they will need production from young players on the defensive side of the ball.

But not every development timetable goes as planned, and asking younger players to take on larger roles brings some risk. This Eagles group has no interest in stopping at one Super Bowl title. They’re thinking dynasty thoughts. We’ve already seen GM Howie Roseman make multiple trades this month, including one that brought in cornerback Jakorian Bennett from the Raiders to address a potentially thin area of the defense. Roseman won’t sit on his hands if more questions rise.


Don’t be surprised if … Deebo Samuel gets some work at running back.

What I’m hearing: I don’t think it’ll be exactly like it was in San Francisco in 2021, when Samuel was getting six, seven carries per game and occasionally even serving as the team’s primary running back. But Washington’s coaches believe Samuel can be a factor when lined up in the backfield, and they’ll be looking for ways to get him touches. Remember that Wes Welker, who is on the Commanders’ staff as a personnel analyst, was the 49ers’ wide receivers coach for the first three years of Samuel’s career and has a strong relationship with him — and a pretty good idea of how to get the best out of him.

Over six seasons, Samuel has 202 rushes for 1,143 yards and 20 TDs.

NFC NORTH

Don’t be surprised if … rookie tight end Colston Loveland is a huge part of the Bears’ offense.

What I’m hearing: The Bears selected Loveland 10th in this year’s draft, so he’s not any kind of sleeper. But he took a while to get up to speed this offseason because he was recovering from an injury, and for that reason, some might have wondered if it’d take some time for him to work his way into the offense.

I don’t think it will. Loveland is the guy whose name comes up every time I ask somebody about Bears camp. He’s quarterback-friendly. He’s big and fast. He’s polished in his route running. He was healthy to start training camp, so he advanced quickly once August got going. And his connection with quarterback Caleb Williams is said to already be outstanding. The Bears have a lot of very good pass catchers, with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and Luther Burden III. But as Williams continues his development under new coach Ben Johnson, he could lean on Loveland a lot — especially early.

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Yates: Loveland is ‘late-round flier’ TE option in fantasy

Field Yates breaks down what Bears rookie Colston Loveland offers fantasy managers in need of a tight end.


Don’t be surprised if … Jahmyr Gibbs is the top-scoring fantasy running back.

What I’m hearing: Yeah, not exactly the boldest prediction, considering Gibbs was second in fantasy points per game last season and actually scored the most points total because Saquon Barkley sat out Week 18. But a lot of people credit that to a furious finish, which coincided with David Montgomery‘s absence from the lineup.

Yes, Montgomery is back healthy, which portends a return to the two-headed running back operation that Detroit favors. But the Lions believe Gibbs has another gear to reach. They think an improved Jameson Williams will open up the field for shorter passes to the backs. And if they have a weakness, it’s on the interior of their offensive line, where center Frank Ragnow retired. That could make the Lions less likely to rely on Montgomery between the tackles and more likely to get creative with Gibbs in space.


Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Jordan Love is an MVP finalist.

What I’m hearing: It sounds like Love will be fully healthy and ready to go for Week 1, even after having a procedure a couple of weeks ago to treat an injury to the thumb of his non-throwing hand. Remember that Love injured his knee in last season’s opener against the Eagles in Brazil and took a while to get back to full health.

Remember also that the Packers had the youngest roster in the league last season and still finished in the top five in defensive EPA and defensive efficiency in the first year of a new defensive system. They drafted Matthew Golden in the first round to add a potential true No. 1 WR to Love’s already deep wide receiver corps. They also have depth at tight end, an impact running back in Josh Jacobs and a strong offensive line. And of their seven losses last season, six came to the Lions, Vikings and Eagles — the top three teams in the NFC.

If the Packers can improve their performance against the league’s top contenders and Love can stay healthy, they are set up to win a lot of games this season. And if they do that, their quarterback is going to be a top MVP candidate.


Don’t be surprised if … Jordan Mason leads the team in rushing.

What I’m hearing: The Vikings love Aaron Jones Sr. If you’ve ever talked to Jones, you know why. He is a great player and a great guy to have in your locker room. But he’s also 30 years old and coming off a 322-touch season.

The Vikings traded for Mason, the former 49ers back who they believe adds an explosive element to their run game. So far, they’ve been thrilled with Mason’s play, and they envision a pretty even split in running back duties this season between him and Jones. But during some Christian McCaffrey absences in San Francisco, Mason did show the ability to function as more than just part of a tandem. He ran for 789 yards on 153 carries last season. So it’s not hard to picture a scenario in which the Vikings decide to lean more on him as the season goes along. Again, nothing against Jones — this could just be the natural evolution of things in Minnesota.

NFC SOUTH

Don’t be surprised if … tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. ends up getting traded.

What I’m hearing: Part of this is what I’m seeing — or rather not seeing. Pitts is in the final year of his contract, playing for $10.878 million on the fifth-year option from his rookie deal. The Falcons have made no move to extend him beyond this season. The fourth pick of the 2021 draft has averaged 49 catches per season and caught a total of 10 touchdown passes in his four-year career while struggling to consistently stay healthy.

When No. 2 receiver Darnell Mooney went down with an injury early in training camp, there was a lot of talk about Atlanta filling that void by playing two-tight end sets and basically using Pitts as a receiver. And the Falcons absolutely might still try that. But there are definitely signs that they don’t view Pitts as a great fit for what they’re trying to do on offense. Mooney’s training camp absence gave some of the younger receivers on the roster a chance to show what they can do, and if one or more of them has emerged as a reliable contributor by the time the trade deadline rolls around, don’t be shocked if Pitts is on the move.


Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Bryce Young is in line for a contract extension next spring.

What I’m hearing: The Panthers believe the improvement Young showed toward the end of last season will carry over into 2025 — not just because of the way he performed on the field but also because of how comfortable he got in his role as starting quarterback. Coaches feel like Young has turned a corner in terms of his confidence and outward competitiveness. And now Carolina added wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan in the first round of this year’s draft to a receiver room that already included last year’s first-round pick Xavier Legette and veteran Adam Thielen.

The Panthers might have a long way to go before being competitive (though maybe not, if their offseason improvements on defense have a lot of instant impact). But they think they have Young on the right track after a disappointing rookie year in 2023 and a rough start to 2024 that saw him benched for veteran Andy Dalton.


Don’t be surprised if … Spencer Rattler gets a pretty long run as starting quarterback.

What I’m hearing: The Saints announced Rattler as their starting QB on Tuesday. He beat out rookie Tyler Shough in a very close training camp competition. Shough was the 40th pick in the draft and turns 26 next month, so it’s reasonable to think they want him to play soon. But Rattler has already surpassed expectations by beating out Shough, and if he performs in the regular season the way he did throughout camp, he could hold on to the job longer than many expect.

Rattler had fans in the Saints’ building last season who felt he had more room to grow. Shough will get his chance, and if the Saints start losing a lot of games, maybe they go to him just for the sake of change. But Rattler has the job for now, and I don’t get the sense that it’s a short leash.


Don’t be surprised if … rookie Emeka Egbuka is the Bucs’ leading receiver.

What I’m hearing: The team has been absolutely raving about first-round pick Egbuka throughout the summer, praising him as hyper-advanced for a rookie in all facets of his game. Chris Godwin, who is working his way back from a major season-ending ankle injury, is on a very uncertain timetable for returning to the field and an even more uncertain one for returning to his old self. Veteran Mike Evans‘ next sub-1,000-yard season will be his first, but he is 32 and missed three games last season. And Jalen McMillan, last year’s rookie standout who caught seven touchdown passes in the final five games of the season, will miss the start of 2025 because of a neck injury.

If he’s everything we’re being told he is, Egbuka can play any of the wide receiver spots in the Tampa Bay offense, already has the trust of quarterback Baker Mayfield and appears in line for a massive share of the target opportunity on one of the league’s best offenses.

NFC WEST

Don’t be surprised if … tight end Trey McBride is the Cardinals’ leading receiver again.

What I’m hearing: Sure, the Cards drafted wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth pick in 2024. And yes, everything we’ve heard out of Arizona this offseason has indicated Harrison is improving on his connection with quarterback Kyler Murray and should be a bigger part of the offense than he was as a rookie. But that still doesn’t mean he’ll be the biggest part of it.

Offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system is built to feature McBride as its top target, and all indications are that the Cardinals see no reason for that to change. McBride is an exceptional player who has been a reliable performer for Murray every time they’ve been on the field together. And yes, fantasy football managers, I think you can expect his touchdown numbers to climb. McBride had 111 catches for 1,146 yards last season, but he scored just two TDs.


Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has to start at some point.

What I’m hearing: The Rams believe starting QB Matthew Stafford is on track to be healthy and start Week 1 after struggling throughout camp with a back injury that stubbornly refused to follow his or the team’s recovery timetable. But Stafford is 37 years old and has dealt with back issues in the past. (To his credit, he has found ways to play through them.) My understanding is that this isn’t something the Rams expect to sideline Stafford for a long period of time or affect his play early in the season, but that it is something that will need to be monitored and managed throughout the season.

That means there could come a week when Stafford feels he can’t play through it. And that’s where you could see backup Garoppolo — who started one game last season — having to step in and keep things humming. Again, I expect Stafford to tough this out and make it through the season; this Rams team has him convinced he can win another Super Bowl before he’s done. But it might not always be the smoothest process.

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1:02

Why Orlovsky isn’t overly concerned about the Rams

Dan Orlovsky outlines why Matthew Stafford’s back injury isn’t impacting his expectations for the Rams.


Don’t be surprised if … the 49ers end up back in the Super Bowl.

What I’m hearing: Good things! I don’t understand why so many people are sleeping on the 49ers, who were in the Super Bowl two seasons ago and saw their 2024 season completely disintegrate because of injuries. They lost some guys this offseason, sure, but they still have Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner … I could go on, but you get the idea. A lot of talent.

At this stage of their careers, McCaffrey and Williams in particular have to be considered injury risks, but if they stay healthy, there’s no reason this can’t be an elite offense for quarterback Brock Purdy. Ricky Pearsall, the team’s 2024 first-round pick who was recovering from a gunshot wound at the start of last season, appears poised to take on a leading role while Jauan Jennings figures out his calf/contract situation and Brandon Aiyuk works his way back from a knee injury.

This team has a good chance to bounce all the way back to being one of the best — if not the best — in the NFC, especially against a schedule that includes just four games against teams that made last season’s playoffs.


Don’t be surprised if … their defense keeps them in the playoff race.

What I’m hearing: The Seahawks ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency and defensive EPA last year in Mike Macdonald’s first season as their coach, but they still finished in the middle of the pack in yards allowed and points allowed. In their second year in Macdonald’s system, they should be dominant. His defense has worked everywhere he has been, including the Ravens and the University of Michigan. His ability to scheme up pressures is as good as anyone’s. It takes time to learn a new scheme, but after playing in it for a year, Seattle’s defensive players are primed for a massive season on that side of the ball.

AFC EAST

Don’t be surprised if … the Bills make a trade or two to improve their defense.

What I’m hearing: Buffalo feels great about its offense, which outscored every team in the NFL last year except the Lions. But it’s still putting things together on the defensive side of the ball, where the Bills finished in the bottom half of the league last season with 5.5 yards allowed per play. The safety position has been a particularly thorny question mark, especially considering how important that position is in coach Sean McDermott’s defense.

McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich have done an excellent job in recent years of making in-season adjustments and bringing that group together. But don’t be shocked if the front office looks to help them out here in the coming weeks or months with a strategic addition or two.


Don’t be surprised if … the Dolphins are actually a wild-card contender.

What I’m hearing: All of the vibes are bad, I get it. The Tua TagovailoaTyreek Hill thing. A cornerback getting hurt seemingly every other day. The fact that the Mike McDaniel magic dust seemed to all blow away last season in Year 3. McDaniel is the most popular name on all of the preseason hot seat lists, and expectations for the Dolphins could not be lower.

But I don’t know. I hate just saying the same thing everyone else is saying, and a visit to their training camp last month got me thinking it might not be as terrible as folks are saying. The Dolphins started 2-6 last season but rebounded to win six of their next eight and ultimately end the season 8-9. We’ve seen teams fold up in those situations, and this one did not. McDaniel and the front office used that experience to identify the strong culture guys, move on from most of those who weren’t and bring in outside veterans with strong leadership reputations.

A ton rests on the Dolphins’ ability to keep Tagovailoa healthy; literally everyone you talk to in that building mentions it. And the popular outside opinion is that they didn’t invest enough in the offensive line this offseason. But McDaniel was 20-14 in his first two seasons in Miami and made the playoffs both times. There’s a chance — a chance — he might be able to get the Dolphins back to where they were in 2022 and 2023. I know I’m out on a limb here, but sometimes you’ve got to go out on a limb.


Don’t be surprised if … rookie TreVeyon Henderson is the team’s No. 1 running back all season.

What I’m hearing: If you’ve been prepping for fantasy drafts, you’re already all over this. Henderson has been the most explosive element of the Patriots’ offense throughout camp, and the coaching staff is smart enough to know New England needs some explosiveness. The concerns about Henderson are whether he can hold up to a full-time starting RB’s workload, considering he split carries with Quinshon Judkins last year at Ohio State. Rhamondre Stevenson is still there if the Patriots want to keep the rookie’s workload lighter early in the season. But there’s some sentiment in Foxborough that Henderson is going to be the type of player they don’t want to take off the field.

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1:36

Why TreVeyon Henderson is making a jump in fantasy

Field Yates and Daniel Dopp explain why TreVeyon Henderson is such an intriguing player in fantasy.


Don’t be surprised if … the Jets lead the league in rushing.

What I’m hearing: They’re extremely high on second-year running back Braelon Allen, the 2024 fourth-round draft pick who’s still only 21 years old. They also know what they have in Breece Hall, who can be a primary ball carrier, a receiving back or some combination of the two. And in Justin Fields, the Jets have one of the most electrifying runners at the quarterback position the league has ever seen. This team’s offensive DNA is going to lie in its run game. And if Fields can show a consistent ability to get the ball downfield to Garrett Wilson in the passing game, it will only open things up more for the Jets to run, run, run.

AFC NORTH

Don’t be surprised if … wide receiver Zay Flowers takes a third-year leap.

What I’m hearing: The Ravens’ offensive identity is still going to be in their outstanding run game, but Flowers is their No. 1 wide receiver, and his absence from last season’s divisional round playoff game in Buffalo (knee) played a part in their loss. He’s healthy now and has had a nice camp. But the main reason I’m looking out for Flowers this season is the fact that DeAndre Hopkins has been on the team since the spring.

Last year at the Super Bowl, Chiefs coaches were raving to me about the impact Hopkins had after Kansas City acquired him — not as a pass catcher but as a teacher, particularly for rookie wideout Xavier Worthy. They talked about how Hopkins would grab the tablet after a drive, walk over to Worthy and teach him some of the finer details about route-running techniques. They felt Worthy’s improved performance throughout the season was due in part to Hopkins’ help, and Ravens coach John Harbaugh told me when I visited their camp that he has seen similar things from Hopkins since he has been in Baltimore. Perhaps Hopkins has the same kind of impact on Flowers that he had on Worthy.


Don’t be surprised if … the Bengals return to the AFC Championship Game.

What I’m hearing: The outside concern about the way the defense has looked in preseason games is not shared by those inside the building. The Bengals are installing a new scheme under new defensive coordinator Al Golden, and the coaching staff made a conscious decision to put as little of that scheme on tape as possible in the televised preseason games. People who have been at practice say the first-team defense has performed fairly well against Joe Burrow and one of the best offenses in the NFL — even with defensive end Trey Hendrickson not participating before agreeing to his new deal.

Cincinnati’s defense has only one direction to go after last season’s collapse. Opponents scored 25.5 points per game on the Bengals, tied for seventh most in the league. If that unit can get back to even the middle of the pack, this is a dangerous team with a potent offense and players who know how to win playoff games. As poorly as the past two seasons have gone in Cincinnati, the Bengals still managed to finish 9-8 in both of them. If that’s rock bottom, you have a contending roster.


Don’t be surprised if … rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. catches a lot of passes.

What I’m hearing: Fannin was one of the most productive college tight ends of all time at Bowling Green, where he set FBS single-season records for catches (117) and yards (1,555) by a tight end in 2024. He slipped to the third round of the draft because of a disappointing 40-yard dash time at the combine (4.71 seconds), but Browns coach Kevin Stefanski saw a hyper-versatile, hyper-productive prospect who could be used in a number of different ways in his offense.

Incumbent David Njoku is still a part of the plans, don’t get me wrong. But I think we’re going to see a lot of plays with Njoku and Fannin on the field together. And whoever’s playing quarterback for the Browns — which is Joe Flacco at the moment — will have an easy time finding the rookie.


Don’t be surprised if … they use a lot of tight ends.

What I’m hearing: Trade acquisition wide receiver DK Metcalf will be Aaron Rodgers‘ top target in the passing game, and the Steelers like their running back room with rookie Kaleb Johnson developing behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. But it’s the depth at tight end that could make coordinator Arthur Smith’s offense surprising and unconventional.

Veteran Pat Freiermuth leads the group, but it also includes Jonnu Smith — who played for Arthur Smith in Tennessee and Atlanta — Connor Heyward and the massive Darnell Washington. The Steelers believe the depth and variety in that group will allow them to show a number of different looks to opposing defenses. With the wide receiver depth chart somewhat thin and full of question marks after Metcalf, look for a lot of 12- and 13-personnel sets from the Steelers in 2025.

AFC SOUTH

Don’t be surprised if … the Texans have the best defense in the league.

What I’m hearing: Houston is extremely excited about the quality and depth of its defensive roster. On the back end, second-year cornerback Kamari Lassiter and second-year safety Calen Bullock look like emerging stars alongside superstar corner Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans are also deep at linebacker and have a pair of high-end edge rushers up front in veteran Danielle Hunter and second-year man Will Anderson Jr. If there are questions, they’re probably at defensive tackle — though Houston added a handful of veterans like Sheldon Rankins, Folorunso Fatukasi and Mario Edwards Jr. to shore up its depth there.

The Texans were in the top five in defensive efficiency and defensive EPA last season, and only Denver, Baltimore and Dallas had more sacks than their 49. There are a lot of eyes on the Houston offense and whether quarterback C.J. Stroud can lead them to a bounce-back season behind a rebuilt offensive line and under a new coordinator. But regardless, the Texans should be a dominant defense week to week.


Don’t be surprised if … the Colts pull an upset and win the division.

What I’m hearing: They have a huge question mark at quarterback. Daniel Jones beat out Anthony Richardson Sr. for the starter’s job because he was steadier, not because he was spectacular. But if Jones can stay healthy and play the way he did for the Giants in their surprise 2022 playoff season, the Colts believe they can build a representative offense behind running back Jonathan Taylor, a strong offensive line and rookie tight end Tyler Warren (who they believe can be a star right away). The defense added some key pieces, not the least of which is former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, and Indy should be a lot better on that side of the ball than most think.

No team in the AFC South has gone longer without winning it than the Colts, who last finished atop the division in 2014 with Andrew Luck at quarterback. With that kind of drought and the team under somewhat new ownership (the late Jim Irsay’s daughter Carlie Irsay-Gordon is the team’s new CEO), there’s a lot of pressure on the coaching staff and front office to deliver — and soon.


Don’t be surprised if … a pair of rookies takes over the backfield by year’s end.

What I’m hearing: Barring a trade between now and Week 1, the Jaguars look poised to enter the season with a running back room that includes Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, fourth-round rookie Bhayshul Tuten and seventh-round rookie LeQuint Allen Jr. Etienne and Bigsby could lead the backfield to start the season, but the new coaching staff and front office inherited them. They drafted Tuten, whose home run speed is enticing enough that he should force his way into a major role relatively soon, and Allen, who they believe can be their third-down back. Etienne is a free agent at season’s end, and Bigsby is signed through 2026. So a changing of the guard in the Jags’ backfield could be afoot before long.


Don’t be surprised if … rookie Elic Ayomanor is the No. 2 receiver.

What I’m hearing: The fourth-rounder out of Stanford has developed a strong rapport with rookie QB Cam Ward and has impressed coaches with his performance throughout training camp. Calvin Ridley projects as the No. 1 receiver, but after him, it’s veterans Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson and rookies Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Ward has publicly pumped up his wide receiver group as a top-five unit in the league. And while that might be an exaggeration, it does a lot for a wide receiver when his quarterback speaks highly of him. Don’t be shocked if Ayomanor is a factor.

AFC WEST

Don’t be surprised if … veteran J.K. Dobbins is the Broncos’ lead running back.

What I’m hearing: The Broncos like second-round rookie RJ Harvey a lot, but he’s still working on his pass-protection skills, and it sounds like Denver trusts Dobbins more in that department. That’s a requirement for a running back in a Sean Payton offense. If Dobbins can do everything the Broncos need there (and Harvey can’t quite yet), I would expect Dobbins to open the season as the team’s main early-down running back with Harvey mixing in a good number of touches.

As the season goes along, could Harvey take on more of a starter’s workload? Of course, and that might even be the team’s hope. But at least to start the season, expect Dobbins to get the majority of the work.

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0:45

Why Field Yates likes the ‘reliability’ of J.K. Dobbins

Field Yates explains why J.K. Dobbins is a better bet than RJ Harvey in drafts.


Don’t be surprised if … the Chiefs trade for a running back.

What I’m hearing: Isiah Pacheco is healthy and ready to resume the lead back role the team planned for him before his early-season broken right leg last year, but the room is thin behind him. Veteran Kareem Hunt just turned 30, and the Chiefs might use rookie Brashard Smith in a more nontraditional role that takes advantage of his receiving skills as he develops. The Chiefs could use a third-down back with some pass protection ability and will be looking at trade and waiver possibilities as rosters get tinkered with ahead of Week 1.


Don’t be surprised if … quarterback Geno Smith sets a career high in passing yards.

What I’m hearing: Smith’s current career high is the 4,320 he put up last season in Seattle behind a substandard offensive line. Las Vegas doesn’t have a great O-line, but there are signs that it should be better than what he had in Seattle. Plus, second-year tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty bring explosiveness to the offense and will offer new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly the ability to get creative with alignments and play calls.

Smith wanted to be in Las Vegas and reunite with former Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, so he’s in a good headspace and playing some of the best football of his career.


Don’t be surprised if … running back Omarion Hampton wins Offensive Rookie of the Year.

What I’m hearing: The Chargers really like veteran running back Najee Harris. They gave him $5.25 million guaranteed in free agency and anticipated him being their starting running back, even after drafting Hampton in the first round. But Harris suffered an unfortunate eye injury in July that cost him a ton of training camp practice time. In the meantime, my understanding is that Hampton emerged quickly.

Harris should still be in the mix once he’s back and fully healthy, and that could well be in time for Week 1. But despite what offensive coordinator Greg Roman has been saying about the backs splitting snaps, I think Hampton is in line for a major role as the starter for the Chargers. And if he’s what they thought he could be when they spent that first-round pick on him, he might just take the starter’s job right away and never look back.



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New Zealand rugby player Shane Christie, who suffered multiple concussions, dies aged 39 – SUCH TV

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New Zealand rugby player Shane Christie, who suffered multiple concussions, dies aged 39 – SUCH TV



A New Zealand rugby player who had wanted his brain to be studied after suffering from the effects of multiple concussions has died aged 39, police said on Wednesday.

Shane Christie, a former Maori All Blacks player, had campaigned for greater awareness in rugby of the impact of repeated blows to the head.

After retiring from the game in 2017 Christie reportedly suffered from headaches, memory lapses, speech problems, depression and mood swings consistent with chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE).

Local media said the death of Christie, who also played for Otago Highlanders, Canterbury Crusaders and the All Blacks sevens team, may have been suicide.

“The death will be referred to the coroner and we have no further information or comment we can provide,” said police.

New Zealand Rugby said Christie was deeply passionate about the sport and would be “remembered always”.

Christie reportedly wanted to donate his brain to the New Zealand sports human brain bank for its studies into CTE, a degenerative disease caused by repetitive head trauma that cannot be detected in living people.

Hundreds of American football (NFL) players have been affected by the condition, which is linked to an array of behavioural symptoms including depression.

CTE has been cited in a number of violent deaths involving former NFL players.

A 2023 study by the Boston University CTE Center said that of 376 brains of former NFL players, 345 of them were found to have CTE.



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New-look Pac-12 extends CW deal through 2031

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New-look Pac-12 extends CW deal through 2031


The Pac-12 has extended its media rights partnership with The CW Network through the 2030-31 season, the conference announced Wednesday.

The agreement gives the new-look Pac-12 a consistent presence on The CW with 13 regular-season football games, 35 men’s basketball games and 15 women’s basketball games each season. Pac-12 Enterprises will produce the broadcasts, totaling 66 events annually on the network.

The deal positions The CW alongside CBS Sports as long-term national broadcast partners for the Pac-12, which will relaunch in 2026 with Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, Oregon State, San Diego State, Texas State, Utah State and Washington State.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

CBS will broadcast the league’s football and men’s basketball championship games, while The CW will carry the women’s basketball tournament semifinals and final.

“Our partnership with The CW has been one of mutual growth and transformation, from the development of our Pac-12 Enterprises’ broadcast production business to the significant added value and positive impact to our current and future members via true national reach across 100% of U.S. television households,” Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould said in a statement. “I am excited for the continued growth of both The CW and the Pac-12 in the years ahead!”

There is expected to be at least one more media partner for the conference, which could be finalized within the month. This year, CBS, The CW and ESPN will share the rights to the 13 home games between the conference’s two current members, Oregon State and Washington State.



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