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War-linked energy shock pushing inflation higher in Europe: IMF expert
In a blog post, Alfred Kammer, director of the IMF’s European department, said his organisation sees growth slowing down in the continent. Initial data point already to weaker private investment and consumption.
The energy shock that has hit Europe due to the Middle East conflict, though smaller than in 2022, is weighing on growth and pushing inflation higher, an IMF expert recently cautioned.
IMF sees growth slowing down in the continent.
Initial data point already to weaker private investment and consumption.
Central banks must remain laser focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored, he wrote.
The outlook for euro area growth is projected at just 1.1 per cent in 2026, for the European Union it is 1.3 per cent; and this forecast comes with a high degree of uncertainty.
In a more severe scenario as described in the World Economic Outlook—a persistent supply shock compounded by tightening financial conditions—the EU could come close to recession with inflation approaching 5 per cent. No European country is spared, Kammer observed.
Policymakers face intense pressure—to act fast, visibly and for all, which results in policies that have more long-term downsides than short-term benefits, he wrote.
Targeted support is much more effective. Europe’s response to this shock should be shaped by two imperatives, he suggested. First, robust macroeconomic policy that is fit for a world with unpredictable and frequent shocks, and second, resilience built without wasting fiscal resources or getting in the way of markets.
The first imperative involves getting monetary and fiscal policy right. Central banks must remain laser focused on keeping inflation expectations anchored, the IMF expert wrote.
In the euro area, where inflation is close to target and medium-term expectations are broadly anchored, the European Central Bank has some scope to wait and observe the shock evolve before acting. IMF now expects a cumulative 50 basis point increase in the policy rate by the end of this year, maintaining a broadly neutral monetary stance in light of higher near-term inflation expectations, Kammer noted.
A rise in core inflation or increasing medium-term expectations would warrant a more restrictive stance, he wrote.
“Europe must reform under pressure. The current shock is not an argument for delay. It is all the more reason to push forward the reform agenda,” Kammer added.
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Such countries include fragile and conflict-affected states and small developing states, especially where debt and financing pressures are mounting, he noted in his statement.
The IMF will continue to support countries in their efforts to promote stability and growth, including through sound macroeconomic policies, domestic resource mobilisation and better governance.
The chair of its International Monetary and Financial Committee said this support will include specific attention to low-income and vulnerable countries.
The committee called for enhanced debt transparency.
“We remain committed to further improving debt restructuring processes, including under the Common Framework, building on the progress already achieved, and advancing the work at the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (GSDR) to ensure debt restructurings are delivered in a predictable, timely, orderly and coordinated manner,” he said.
The committee called for enhanced debt transparency from all stakeholders, including private creditors.
“We will advance structural reforms to enable private sector-led investment, increase productivity, safeguard energy security, and elevate medium-term growth prospects,” added Aljadaan.
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“The improved order situation in industry has brightened sentiment somewhat. However, as a result of the Iran war, energy costs have risen sharply, and uncertainty among companies has also increased. That runs counter to a stronger economic recovery,” said Timo Wollmershauser, head of forecasts at ifo.
Firms in Germany have raised investment plans, with ifo expectations rising to 0.2 points in March from -3.1 in December 2025.
Industry led gains, especially non-energy sectors, while energy-intensive segments and chemicals remained weak.
Services showed modest optimism, but trade stayed pessimistic.
Rising energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty temper recovery.
The most notable rise in the willingness to invest was in industry. Expectations rose to +0.1 points in March, up from -6.9 points in December. The outlook improved particularly strongly in non-energy-intensive industries, where significantly more companies were planning to expand their investments this year, ifo said in a press release.
In energy-intensive industries, however, the willingness to invest remains subdued. At -9 points in March, the balance remained virtually unchanged from December (-8.9 points). In the chemical industry, investment expectations even declined further, from -15.8 to -16.2 points.
Overall, the corresponding balance in manufacturing rose from -4.1 to +1.2 points. “Companies across all sectors also want to invest more in software. The growing use of artificial intelligence is likely to play a role in that,” said ifo economic expert Lara Zarges.
In trade, companies remain the most pessimistic. The balance of investment expectations stood at -9.6 points in March, virtually unchanged from the level in December. Service providers, on the other hand, confirmed their slightly positive outlook from December: Their investment expectations improved from +1.1 to +2.8 points.
The points for the ifo investment expectations indicate the percentage of companies that intend to increase their investments on balance.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)
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