Business
Gold price prediction: Why are gold prices rallying again and what’s the outlook? Top levels investors should watch out for – The Times of India
Gold price prediction: Gold prices are rallying again on the hopes of US Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and China’s gold buying. However, Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan recommends buying the dip, rather than chasing the rally. The analyst shares his views on gold price outlook and what levels investors should watch out for:Gold Performance:
- Although expectations of the ongoing US shutdown ending soon boosted risk appetite, spot gold extended its Friday’s rally to surge sharply higher on Monday on the Fed rate cut expectations, wobbly US Dollar and China’s Central Bank adding gold reserves for 12th month in a row in October.
- Gold gained on inflation concerns also as President Donald Trump once again floated the idea of sending Americans rebate checks of at least $2000 a person (excluding high income people) for the tariffs that his administration has collected.
- At the time of writing this article, spot gold was trading with a huge daily gain of 2.34% at $4,096, while
MCX Gold December contract at Rs 123,707 was up 2.07%. - In the week ending November 7, spot gold prices posted a weekly loss of $1 to close at $4001, which amounts to a third straight weekly loss per se.
US Shutdown likely to end:
- On November 9, the US Senate advanced a plan to end the longest-ever US government shutdown that entered the week. A faction of moderate democrats defied their party leaders and voted to support a deal to end the ongoing shutdown.
- As flight disruptions have worsened due heavy snow, the ongoing shutdown may intensify the stress on the US air-traffic system ahead of the busy Thanksgiving travel period as controllers may have to continue to work without pay checks.
Fedspeak:
- Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President Musalem expects the US economy to bounce back strongly early next year due to rate cuts, fiscal support, deregulation and the government shutdown ending. He urged the Fed officials to be cautious on additional rate cuts as he thinks that the current Fed policy is close to the level where it would not put any downward pressure on inflation.
- On the contrary, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly warned against keeping interest rates too high for too long due to softening labour market and moderating wage growth.
US Dollar Index and yields:
- At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index at 99.72 was up around 0.15% for the day. Day’s low has been 99.45.
- Ten-year US yields at 4.11% were up by around 1.50 bps, while 2-year yields at 3.59% were up by around 3 bps.
US Data roundup:
- US employment report has not been published in November, which makes it the second month without a national employment report.
- Bloomberg estimates that depending on the US government reopening date, September employment report may be published on November 19/November 26. Even then the report may not offer true picture due to uncertainty over Federal government employment figures. Other reports will also be delayed.
- October CPI report may not be released though.
- Data released in the week ending November 7 were largely mixed as US ISM manufacturing trailed the forecast and contracted for the seventh straight month in October, while ISM services at 52.40 beat the forecast of 50.80 to rise at the fastest pace since February.
- University of Michigan Consumer sentiment fell from 53.60 in October to 50.30 in November, near record-low and even lower than 2008 global financial crisis and Covid levels.
- It is to be noted that ADP data released last week showed that US companies added 42K jobs in October, which signalled a moderate stabilization in the US job market. Challenger job cuts report showed almost 950,000 US job cuts this year through September, the highest year-to-date total since 2020.
Gold ETFs and COMEX inventory:
- Total known global gold ETF holdings rose for two straight days through November 7 to 97.24 MOz, though were down for the third consecutive weeks. Nonetheless, holdings are up 17.36% this year and are hovering around 3-year high level.
- China’s domestic gold ETF holdings rose by 79.015 tons in January to September period, which is a steep rise compared to the 29.927 tons-gain during the same period last year.
- COMEX gold eligible inventory at 17.94Moz is around the lowest level since April.
China’s Central Bank buys gold for the 12th month in a row:
- China’s official gold reserves stood at 74.09 MOz at the end of October, up from 74.06 MOz a month earlier, which means that PBoC bought nearly one ton of gold in October.
- Uzbekistan’s gold reserves reached $47.85 billion October, a record high for the fourth straight month.
China’s gold consumption dips:
- According to a statement from the China Gold Association, the nation’s gold consumption dropped 7.95% y-o-y to 682.73 tons in the January-September period.
Gold Price Outlook:
- A possible end to the US government shutdown has turned investors’ attention back to the Fed rate expectations in October as the upcoming US data may show deteriorating economy.
- Gold is benefiting due to China extending its buying spree and inflation concerns, too.
- However, steady US yields and Dollar may limit the gains barring
- In the very short-term, gold is expected to test the strong resistance around $4160, a successful breach of which would open the way to test the resistance in $4190-$4200 zone.
- Dip buying is preferred over chasing the rally.
- Support is at $4075/$4025/$3990.
Silver: Sharply up
- MCX Silver December contract surged to 153,650, up 4% for the day.
- The metal may test the resistance around Rs 158,500 as it has taken out the strong resistance at $49.30 (Rs 150,000), which will act as a support now.
- Next support comes in at $48.50 (Rs 148,000).
- Dip buying is preferred over chasing the current rally.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
Saudi Arabia pumps 7 million bpd via east-west pipeline amid Hormuz disruption – The Times of India
Saudi Arabia has brought its East-West pipeline into full operation, pushing 7 million barrels of oil a day through the route as it works to maintain supplies following the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a person familiar with the matter said. The pipeline, which runs across the kingdom to the Red Sea, has become central to efforts to keep exports moving. Oil shipments are now being rerouted to Yanbu, where tankers are loading crude for international markets, offering a crucial alternative at a time when the main passage has been disrupted, Bloomberg reported. According to the person cited by the agency, crude shipments from Yanbu have reached about 5 million barrels a day. In addition, between 700,000 and 900,000 barrels a day of refined products are being exported. Of the total volume transported via the pipeline, around 2 million barrels a day is directed to domestic refineries.Though, even at full capacity, the route does not fully replace the volumes previously shipped through Hormuz, which handled roughly 15 million barrels a day before the war, the availability of this alternative has helped limit the extent of price increases compared to earlier supply disruptions. Market concerns are now shifting towards the Red Sea after Yemen’s Houthis said they are entering the war. While there has been no indication of plans to target vessels passing through the Red Sea or the Bab El-Mandeb strait, the group has in the past threatened shipping in the region using drones and missiles. Saudi Arabia had long prepared for a scenario in which Hormuz could be shut. Its contingency plan was put into action within hours of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with flows along the east-west pipeline increasing steadily since then. The pipeline stretches more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from oil-producing regions in the east of the country to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. It was originally developed in response to risks highlighted during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, when tanker attacks disrupted movement through the Strait, though the current situation has led to a near-closure on a scale not seen before.
Business
From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India
A month into the Middle East conflict, its ripple effects are felt across economies worldwide. The crisis was triggered on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, setting off a chain of events that has tightened Tehran’s grip over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage, linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, remains one of the world’s most critical energy routes. At its narrowest, it spans just 29 nautical miles, with limited navigable channels for shipping.Carrying around 20 million barrels of oil daily, nearly a quarter of global seaborne trade, any disruption here has far-reaching consequences. As supplies come under strain, countries are scrambling to manage the fallout while cushioning consumers through a mix of policy responses. While some have raised fuel prices, others restructured taxes to protect consumers.
Vietnam
Vietnam consumers have breathed a sigh of relief as the country has lowered fuel prices. Faced with a sharp spike in fuel costs, Vietnam rolled out emergency measures to bring costs under control. Authorities have suspended environmental protection taxes on petrol, diesel and aviation fuel until mid-April, in a bid to steady the domestic market. The trade ministry described the step as “an urgent and effective solution to stabilize the petroleum market and ensure national energy security amidst the escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is creating the ‘biggest energy bottleneck ever’.” The move has led to a steep fall in prices, with petrol dropping by roughly 26% and diesel by more than 15% after earlier surges.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, prolonged high temperatures have intensified pressure on an already strained power system, prompting the government to scale back activity. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced a week-long suspension of work across the public sector, including education, as part of an electricity-saving drive. “During this Holy Week, I want to announce that I have decreed days off on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the entire education sector,” she said, adding that the country had endured “45 days of high temperatures.” While essential services will remain operational, the step reflects ongoing challenges in managing electricity demand.
India
In India, the government has taken a range of steps to cushion consumers and companies from the ongoing energy supply crisis. With refining costs climbing sharply, the government reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, despite the impact on state revenues. At the same time, export duties were introduced on diesel and aviation turbine fuel to manage supply pressures. Officials insisted there is no shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG, dismissing claims of disruption as a “coordinated misinformation campaign.” Domestic LPG availability remains stable, with production increased and states asked to expand commercial distribution.
Pakistan
Pakistan is facing mounting pressure from rising fuel costs, with the government adjusting prices selectively while trying to shield consumers. Kerosene prices have been increased by PKR 4.66 per litre to PKR 433.40, effective March 28, even as petrol and diesel rates remain unchanged at PKR 321.17 and PKR 335.86 per litre. Authorities said the decision aims to protect consumers from global price swings, with the state absorbing part of the burden through payments of PKR 95.59 per litre on petrol and PKR 203.88 per litre on diesel to oil marketing companies.At the same time, aviation fuel prices have surged sharply, rising for the fifth time in 28 days. A latest increase of PKR 5 per litre has pushed jet fuel to a record PKR 476.97 per litre, up from PKR 188 at the start of March — a jump of PKR 288. Airlines have already raised fares, with domestic one-way tickets on routes such as Karachi-Islamabad and Karachi-Lahore reaching up to PKR 40,000, while “chance seat” fares have surged by as much as 150%. Amid these pressures, work patterns are also adjusting in response to the energy strain, with measures aimed at reducing overall fuel consumption forming part of the wider response.
Egypt
Egypt has introduced a series of temporary restrictions to reduce energy consumption as fuel costs climb. Retail outlets, restaurants and cafes are now required to shut by 21:00 each night, alongside measures such as reduced street lighting and limited remote working. The government termed these “exceptional measures” in response to mounting pressure on energy supplies. Egyptian PM Mostafa Madbouly said that the country’s petrol expenditure had more than doubled in recent months. Although tourism-related businesses are exempt, the wider economy is feeling the strain, particularly due to reliance on imported fuel.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is tightening energy use as supply disruptions continue to strain the country’s fuel system. With around 60 percent of its energy imported and limited reserves covering barely a month, authorities have reintroduced a QR-based rationing system. Weekly limits have been set, including eight litres for motorbikes, 20 for tuk-tuks, 25 for cars, 100 litres of diesel for buses and 200 for lorries. Fuel prices have also risen by about 33 percent since the start of the war, adding pressure on households.To curb consumption, the government has introduced a no-work-on-Wednesday policy, shutting offices and schools on that day. Alongside fuel shortages, Sri Lankan citizens are also struggling with disrupted fertiliser supplies which could push food prices higher, with estimates pointing to a potential 15% increase, further compounding the cost-of-living strain.
Business
India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India
India on Saturday said it has strongly opposed the China-led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement being incorporated into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, flagging concerns over its systemic implications, PTI reported.The issue was raised at the ongoing 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the WTO in Yaounde, Cameroon, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said such a move could weaken the institution’s foundational structure.“Incorporation of the IFD agreement risks eroding the functional limits of the WTO and undermining its foundational principles,” Goyal said in a social media post.“At #WTOMC14, drawing inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi ji’s philosophy of Truth prevailing over conformity, India showed the courage to stand alone on the contentious issue of the IFD Agreement and did not agree to its incorporation into the WTO framework as an Annex 4 Agreement,” he said.Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement contains Plurilateral Trade Agreements that are binding only on members that have accepted them, unlike multilateral agreements which apply to all members.Goyal said that as part of WTO reform discussions, members are deliberating on guardrails and legal safeguards for plurilateral agreements before integrating any such outcomes into the framework.“In view of the systemic issue at hand, India showed openness to have good faith, comprehensive discussions and constructive engagement under the WTO Reform Agenda,” he added.India had also opposed the pact during the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi.The Investment Facilitation for Development proposal was first mooted in 2017 by China and a group of countries that rely significantly on Chinese investments, including those with sovereign wealth funds. The agreement, if adopted, would be binding only on signatory members.
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