Business
An indicator of commercial real estate transaction volume just improved for the first time this year
Housing block in Warsaw, Poland
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After a pullback in commercial real estate activity earlier this year due to broad economic uncertainty, there are new signs that activity is on the move again.
Capital is increasing and “bidder dynamics” are stabilizing, according to JLL’s global Bid Intensity Index, which saw improvement in July — its first since December.
The index measures bidding activity in order to give a real-time view of liquidity and competitiveness in private real estate capital markets. That, in turn, is an indicator for future capital flows across investment sales transactions.
It is composed of three sub-indices:
- Bid-Ask Spread: Final winning bid vs. the asking price
- Bids per Deal: Average number of bids per deal
- Bid Variability: Pricing variability of final bids
The stabilization in bidding dynamics comes as property sector performance fundamentals are holding up and asset valuations have generally held firm so far this year, despite weaker investor sentiment, according to the report.
“With no shortage of liquidity, institutional investors are returning to the market with more capital sources and a renewed appetite for real estate,” said Ben Breslau, chief research officer at JLL. “While further recovery is expected to be gradual after moderating earlier this year, borrowing costs and real estate values in most markets have stabilized, so we expect momentum to pick up through the second half of the year.”
Bid-ask spreads, the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay for an asset and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept, are narrowing to more healthy levels across multiple sectors. The sector seeing the most improvement is so-called “living,” which is largely multifamily apartments but also includes senior living and student housing.
Retail is doing better than last year, but has been in decline over the last few months as tariffs weigh heavily on that sector. Industrial is the biggest laggard, thanks to supply chain uncertainty also muddied by potential and real tariffs.
Office bid dynamics are showing improvement, driven by a growing number of bidders and more lenders quoting on office loans. Some have called a bottom to the office market after its Covid-induced crash. Investors are bargain hunting in some cases, but as fundamentals strengthen with more return-to-office, overall deal demand is rising.
Bottom line: Investors appear to be accepting uncertainty as the new normal, according to the JLL report. Breslau said that includes accepting higher risk.
“The attractiveness of CRE investments as a long-term store of value remains intact. As more investors move to a ‘risk-on’ mode, coupled with the exceptionally strong debt markets, we expect this will lead to continued growth in capital flows,” he said.
Correction: This article has been updated to correct a reference to Ben Breslau, chief research officer at JLL.
Food giant Kraft Heinz is poised to divide its sprawling operations into two independent, publicly traded companies, a decade after its formation through a major merger.
The move, confirmed on Tuesday following reports last week, comes as the company seeks to overcome recent struggles. Known for household staples such as ketchup, baked beans, Heinz soups, and HP sauce in the UK, the firm stated the overhaul is “designed to maximise Kraft Heinz’s capabilities and brands while reducing complexity”.
One part of the business will operate as Global Taste Elevation Co, which will include the group’s global brands and many of its sauces and tinned products.
This will include brands such as Heinz, Philadelphia and Kraft Mac & Cheese, the company said.
It will then also create the North American Grocery Co, focusing on staples in the US and other parts of the region, where it has brands including Oscar Mayer, Kraft Singles and Lunchables.
Carlos Abrams-Rivera, Kraft Heinz chief executive, said: “This move will unleash the power of our brands and unlock the potential of our business.
“This next step in our transformation is only possible because of the commitment of our 36,000 talented employees who deliver quality and value for consumers every day.
“We will continue to operate as ‘one Kraft Heinz’ throughout the separation process.”
The deal is expected to complete in the second half of next year, dependent on regulatory approval.
Business
Eurozone inflation: Prices edge up to 2.1% in August, ECB likely to hold rates steady – The Times of India
Inflation in the eurozone rose slightly to 2.1% in August from 2% in July, official data showed on Tuesday, fuelling expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week.The EU’s statistics agency Eurostat said the uptick was mainly driven by a smaller fall in energy prices. While energy costs continued to decline, they fell by 1.9% compared with 2.5% in July, AFP reported.Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected inflation to remain at 2%, in line with the ECB’s target. The increase now reinforces expectations that policymakers will leave rates unchanged at their September 11 meeting. The ECB had already paused rate cuts in July, ending a streak of consecutive reductions that began in September 2024.Core inflation — which excludes volatile categories like energy, food, alcohol and tobacco — remained steady at 2.3% in August.Meanwhile, food, alcohol and tobacco prices eased to 3.2% from 3.3% in July, while services inflation also softened marginally to 3.1% from 3.2%.
The founder of fintech firm Revolut, Nik Storonsky, is set to become one of the ten richest businessmen in Britain.
App-based bank Revolut is allowing employees to sell a portion of their shares in the company – up to 20 per cent – for $1,381.06 per share (around £1,029) in a secondary sale, which will value the business in total at $75bn (£55.9bn). Last year, the company was valued at $45bn (£33.5bn).
Mr Storonsky has around a 25 per cent holding of the firm, meaning his personal wealth will grow to more than $18bn (£13.5bn) – putting him in the top ten richest businesspeople in the UK.
Bloomberg’s Billionaire Index ranks James Dyson, the entrepreneur and inventor, as the richest on these shores with a personal wealth of $19.5bn. Sir Jim Ratcliffe, owner of Ineos and part-owner of Manchester United, is next in line at $16.2bn according to their list.
Other sources who work out billionaire wealth by different metrics place Storonsky’s impending value below that of Ratcliffe’s, while individuals such as Lakshmi Mittal – chairman at one of the world’s biggest steel manufacturers – is based in the UK, though born in India.
Thus, there will be discrepancies at the precise rank of Mr Storonsky – himself Russian-born but who renounced his citizenship after the invasion of Ukraine – when it comes to richest business people in the UK. He will certainly, however, be within the ranks of the top ten – and with the potential to go far higher.
As part of his package at Revolut, the founder will add more shares to his ownership if he steers the firm to a $150bn valuation, double that of the new level.
On the employee share sale, a spokesperson said: “As part of our commitment to our employees, we regularly provide opportunities for them to gain liquidity. An employee secondary share sale is currently in process, and we won’t be commenting further until it is complete.”
While Revolut does not yet have a full banking licence for the UK, it does hold a restricted one to allow it to operate towards being a full bank during a “mobilisation” phase.
Its valuation of around £56bn makes it bigger than the market capitalisation of public listed banks such as Natwest (£41.7bn), the Lloyds group (£47.6bn) and Barclays (£51.6bn). Revolut are expected to float on the stock market in due course, though Mr Storonsky suggested New York, rather than London, fits the company better for it.
Annual profits at Revolut topped £1bn last year, while earlier this year they announced an internal points system which contributes towards employee bonuses, as well as an intent to break into the mobile phone operator market.
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