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RBI Monetary Policy Committee Unlikely To Cut Rates In October: Report

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RBI Monetary Policy Committee Unlikely To Cut Rates In October: Report


New Delhi: The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee (MPC) is anticipated to maintain the status quo on the repo rate in its October review, considering the positive impact of GST reforms on demand, stronger-than-expected Q1 FY26 GDP growth, and an inflation trajectory which is expected to slope upwards thereafter, a report said on Thursday. 

The inflation trajectory remained lower due to GST rationalisation (FY2026 average now around 2.6 per cent). The transmission of the past 100 bps rate cut is assessed as nearly complete for fresh deposits (-94 bps) but muted for outstanding deposits (-18 bps), ICRA said in its report.

Similarly, the Weighted Average Lending Rate for fresh loans declined by 60 bps, compared to a 42-bps easing for outstanding loans. Further significant transmission to lending rates is considered limited in the coming months.

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According to the report, the 10-year G-sec yield for the government bond market is projected to trade between 6.40-6.60 per cent, with the yield curve expected to remain steep. This is due to comfortable liquidity keeping short-term rates steady, while long-term yields remain sticky amid fiscal concerns and demand-supply dynamics.

“Internationally, the spread between the 10Y India G-sec and the 10Y US Treasury yield widened to 236 bps in September 2025 from 209 bps at the end of June 2025, following a US Fed rate cut,” the report said. Systemic liquidity surplus cooled in September 2025 after being sizable in June-August 2025, due to advance tax outflows.

Additionally, a pending 75 bps CRR cut during October-November 2025 and G-sec redemptions (Rs. 1.0 trillion) in early-November 2025 are expected to support liquidity, offsetting festive season currency leakage pressure, the report stated.

The RBI may continue Variable Rate Repos (VRRs) to manage intermittent tightness. According to the report, GST rationalisation is expected to dampen headline CPI inflation by 25-50 bps during Q3 FY2026-Q2 FY2027 relative to earlier estimates

“Average CPI inflation for FY2026 is now projected at around 2.6 per cent (against 3.0 per cent earlier),” the report noted.



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India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India

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India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India


India on Saturday said it has strongly opposed the China-led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement being incorporated into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, flagging concerns over its systemic implications, PTI reported.The issue was raised at the ongoing 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the WTO in Yaounde, Cameroon, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said such a move could weaken the institution’s foundational structure.“Incorporation of the IFD agreement risks eroding the functional limits of the WTO and undermining its foundational principles,” Goyal said in a social media post.“At #WTOMC14, drawing inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi ji’s philosophy of Truth prevailing over conformity, India showed the courage to stand alone on the contentious issue of the IFD Agreement and did not agree to its incorporation into the WTO framework as an Annex 4 Agreement,” he said.Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement contains Plurilateral Trade Agreements that are binding only on members that have accepted them, unlike multilateral agreements which apply to all members.Goyal said that as part of WTO reform discussions, members are deliberating on guardrails and legal safeguards for plurilateral agreements before integrating any such outcomes into the framework.“In view of the systemic issue at hand, India showed openness to have good faith, comprehensive discussions and constructive engagement under the WTO Reform Agenda,” he added.India had also opposed the pact during the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi.The Investment Facilitation for Development proposal was first mooted in 2017 by China and a group of countries that rely significantly on Chinese investments, including those with sovereign wealth funds. The agreement, if adopted, would be binding only on signatory members.



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Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, dies at 87 in Mumbai – The Times of India

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Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, dies at 87 in Mumbai – The Times of India


Vijaypat Singhania, former Raymond chairman, Padma Bhushan awardee and noted aviator, has passed away.He died in Mumbai at the age of 87.His son Gautam Singhania, chairman and managing director of the Raymond Group, announced the death on microblogging platform X.A company spokesperson said Singhania passed away “peacefully” and his last rites will be performed on Sunday, reported PTI.A recipient of the Padma Bhushan, Vijaypat Singhania was known not only for his leadership at Raymond but also for his passion for aviation. He held a world record for achieving the highest altitude in a hot air balloon.He led Raymond as chairman for around two decades until 2000, after which he handed over the reins of the company to Gautam Singhania. He had also transferred his entire 37 per cent stake in the company to his son.Vijaypat Singhania and Gautam Singhania were later involved in legal disputes, which were subsequently resolved.



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Middle East crisis: Jubilant FoodWorks reports some Domino’s outlets affected by LPG shortage – The Times of India

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Middle East crisis: Jubilant FoodWorks reports some Domino’s outlets affected by LPG shortage – The Times of India


Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd (JFL), which operates Domino’s Pizza and Dunkin Donuts in India, has reported constraints in LPG cylinder supplies across parts of its store network due to the ongoing West Asia war, according to ET.In a filing to the BSE, the company said, “Operational impact at this stage is limited and being actively managed. The company is taking several steps to conserve LPG and working overtime to move to alternate energy sources like electricity and piped natural gas (PNG).”It added that it is in continuous touch with oil marketing companies to track developments and respond to the evolving situation. “The company is in constant engagement with oil marketing companies (OMCs) to remain apprised of the latest developments and plan operational responses accordingly, given the rapidly evolving nature of the situation,” the filing said.The company noted that it is closely monitoring the situation as supply disruptions persist.The impact is being felt across the restaurant industry, with several chains facing similar challenges due to LPG shortages.On March 10, the National Restaurant Association of India (NRAI) had advised its five lakh members to consider shorter operating hours, reduce items requiring long cooking times or deep frying, and adopt fuel-saving measures such as using lids while cooking, in view of supply constraints linked to the Gulf war.



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