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Auto executives are hoping for the best and planning for the worst in 2026

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Auto executives are hoping for the best and planning for the worst in 2026


U.S. President Donald Trump and CEO of Ford Jim Farley clap, as President Trump visits a Ford production center, in Dearborn, Michigan, U.S., January 13, 2026.

Evelyn Hockstein | Reuters

DETROIT — The only consistency has been inconsistency for the U.S. automotive industry during the first half of this decade — a trend that’s expected to continue amid challenging market conditions in 2026.

The U.S. auto sector — a crucial driver of the economy estimated around 4.8% of America’s gross domestic product — has endured rolling crises since the Covid-19 pandemic shuttered U.S. assembly plants in early 2020. The global health crisis was followed by yearslong supply chain issues, semiconductor chip shortages, political whipsawing, tariffs and other challenges for all-electric and autonomous vehicles.

Automakers have been surprisingly resilient during the challenges, but those issues are now combining with more traditional industry problems of affordability and slowing consumer demand. That’s all creating a more challenging environment for automakers in 2026.

“We’ve got to plan for the worst and hope for the best,” Hyundai North America CEO Randy Parker told CNBC during an interview. “That’s the situation that we’re in right now.”

Other executives have expressed similar sentiments as they prepare for a “new” U.S. automotive industry: one that’s more expensive, smaller and, by many means, less predictable.

Automotive forecasters are calling for steady to lower sales this year, despite industry sales only hitting 16.3 million units last year. That was the highest level since the pandemic in 2020, but down from more than 17 million for five consecutive years before the global health crisis, according to industry data.

“Anyone in the auto industry … we should all be very careful about consumer demand,” Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley said Jan. 13 during an event for the Detroit Auto Show. “That’s really important.”

‘Affordability crisis’

“Pandemic-induced production constraints and supply chain chaos didn’t just disrupt the market temporarily. They fundamentally restructured pricing dynamics. This elevated plateau is now the new baseline, which has the market anchored at these higher price points,” said Erin Keating, Cox Automotive senior director of economic and industry insights.

It’s not just vehicle prices hitting consumers’ wallets either. They’re also dealing with inflation, increases in maintenance and repairs, and 13% annual average increases for insurance over the past five years, according to Cox Automotive.

“The cumulative weight of all these increases has pushed total vehicle ownership costs beyond reach for many middle- and lower-income households, constraining market access and accelerating the affordability crisis,” said Cox Automotive interim chief economist Jeremy Robb.

Cox Automotive reports it took 33.7 weeks of median household income to buy the average new vehicle in November 2019. Now it’s 36.3 weeks. That’s down from a record high of 42.2 weeks during the pandemic, but still means vehicles cost thousands of dollars more than historic levels.

David Christ, Toyota Motor’s U.S. sales chief, warned that the current tariff and trade environment will cause prices to continue to increase this year, despite the concerns.

“On our end, we’re just taking it month-to-month, and we’re watching the competitors closely,” Christ said on a call with reporters earlier this month. “But we feel prices are going to go up for us and for our competitors.” 

To combat the slower sales and affordability challenges, Toyota and other automakers have said they will refocus on lower-priced vehicle models — a change from recent years when automakers prioritized their most expensive, highly profitable vehicles during supply chain shortages.

“Every automaker must face the reality that the American market has changed for the foreseeable future,” said Lance Woelfer, head of American Honda Motor’s U.S. sales.

For Honda, Woelfer said that means increasing production on less expensive trims as well as focusing on certified pre-owned vehicles, which are used but backed by company warranties. For others, such as Ford, that could include reentering abandoned segments such as sedans, according to its CEO.

“Never say never,” Farley told reporters during the event in Detroit. “The sedan market is very vibrant. It’s not that there isn’t a market there. It’s just we couldn’t find a way to compete and be profitable. Well, we may find a way to do that.”

Ford sells sedans outside of the U.S. but exited the domestic market with the cancellation of the Michigan-made Fusion in 2020. It also eliminated the larger Taurus sedan and smaller Ford Fiesta and Ford Focus before that.

Ford’s crosstown rivals General Motors and Stellantis have largely exited the traditional U.S. sedan market as well.

Affordability concerns are generating attention from outside the automotive industry as well. A Senate committee led by Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, requested a hearing with CEOs from Ford, GM and Stellantis about affordability and other issues in the automotive industry. The hearing was scheduled for Jan. 14 but was postponed amid scheduling conflicts and general pushback from Ford about Tesla CEO Elon Musk not attending the meeting, according to a letter from the company to the subcommittee that was obtained by Politico.

2025 Jeep Grand Cherokees are displayed for sale at Larry H. Miller Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge and Ram dealership in Thornton, Colorado on Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026.

Hyoung Chang | The Denver Post | Getty Images

‘Prepared for surprises’

Automakers are also bracing this year for potentially volatile U.S. regulations and trade negotiations, such as the upcoming renegotiating of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that’s scheduled for later this year.

Currently, automakers can import new vehicles from South Korea or Japan with lower tariffs than from Canada or Mexico, depending on their U.S. content. The Trump administration has reached trade deals on vehicles with those Asian countries but not its neighbors to the north and south.

Depending on the outcome of those discussions, USMCA could be a tailwind for automakers that have a lot of production in the U.S.

“Looking to 2026, our cycle work would suggest that autos would have a difficult time outperforming given a relatively flat y/y volume outlook. However, we see reasons for optimism for US [automakers],” UBS analyst Joseph Spak wrote last month in an investor note.

Wall Street will begin getting its first outlooks from automakers this week beginning with GM announcing its fourth quarter and year-end earnings on Tuesday, followed by Tesla on Wednesday.

GM CEO Mary Barra earlier this month reconfirmed that the automaker expects 2026 will be better than 2025.  

GM’s 2025 guidance included adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of between $12 billion and $13 billion, or $9.75 to $10.50 adjusted EPS, and adjusted automotive free cash flow of $10 billion to $11 billion, up from $7.5 billion to $10 billion.

But depending on the automaker, Wall Street analysts expect mixed results for the U.S. industry as it continues to deal with uncertain times.

“It is hard to imagine how 2026 could bring more external shocks and share price divergence than 2025 but, with no visible end to industry disruption, we are also prepared for surprises, impairments and strategic shifts,” Jefferies analyst Owen Paterson said in an investor note this month.



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World’s largest mining group names new chief executive

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World’s largest mining group names new chief executive



BHP has named Brandon Craig as its new chief executive to replace Mike Henry at the helm of the world’s largest mining company.

Mr Craig, who is currently BHP’s Americas boss, will start on July 1, when Mr Henry steps down after six-and-a-half years in the role.

The Australian mining giant – which switched its main listing from London to Sydney in 2022, but retained a standard listing in the UK – said Mr Henry had helped the firm establish itself as the world’s biggest copper producer.

But he also presided over two failed attempts to buy rival Anglo American to further bolster its copper portfolio, last November walking away from a deal just 18 months after its previous ill-fated approach.

Former FTSE 100 company BHP had looked to muscle in on the agreed mega-merger between Anglo and Canadian rival Teck Resources before pulling out.

Ross McEwan, BHP chairman and former NatWest chief executive, said Mr Craig’s “discipline and focus” would help him drive the group’s strategy forwards.

“We would like to recognise the outstanding contribution of Mike Henry to BHP as chief executive,” he added.

“Under his leadership, BHP has transformed into a safer and more productive company, financially strong and sharply focused on shareholder value and social value.”

Mr Craig has worked at BHP for more than 25 years, having joined in 1999.

Before his current role, he also previously led the group’s Western Australia iron ore business.

He will take on the chief executive role with a 1.9 million US dollar (£1.4 million) annual salary, plus benefits, with the potential for cash and share awards worth up to a maximum of 6.8 million dollars (£5.1 million) each year and possible long-term incentive share awards of up to 3.8 million dollars (£2.8 million) a year.

Mr Craig said: “It is an honour and privilege to succeed Mike Henry as chief of BHP.

“Thanks to his leadership, BHP is well positioned for the future.

“Mike will be remembered for his strategic decision-making, portfolio transformation, operational excellence and focus on safety and high-performance culture.”

Outgoing boss Mr Henry said: “It has been a privilege to serve as chief executive of BHP and to have worked with so many truly talented people. I am proud of what we have achieved together.”



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LPG crisis: Centre pushes states to fast-track switch to PNG amid Hormuz supply disruption – The Times of India

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LPG crisis: Centre pushes states to fast-track switch to PNG amid Hormuz supply disruption – The Times of India


As the Middle East crisis continues to escalate, its impact is now being felt across Indian households and businesses such as eateries and restaurants, with the country relying on imports for 60% of its LPG needs. Amid rising concerns over LPG supply flows, the government is encouraging both households and commercial users to shift towards PNG.It has urged states to fast-track approvals and cut charges so that more homes can shift to piped natural gas (PNG) at a time when liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies remain under stress. According to an official cited by ET, states have been asked to speed up permissions for laying pipelines and to do away with road restoration and related fees imposed by local authorities. The aim is to accelerate infrastructure rollout and make it easier for households to adopt PNG.As part of the relief measures, the petroleum and natural gas regulatory board has waived imbalance charges for city gas companies, shippers and consumers “as a temporary relief measure in light of the extraordinary circumstances” due to ongoing Iran war. These charges are typically imposed when the actual quantity of gas taken or injected by a shipper differs from the amount scheduled on the pipeline network.Officials said the Centre is trying to overcome “structural constraints” that have slowed the growth of PNG connections. Sujata Sharma, joint secretary at the ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, outlined a series of steps proposed to states in a presentation shared on Monday.These include directing states to:

  • Issuing deemed permission for pending applications for laying city gas distribution (CGD) pipelines
  • Mandating approval of all new CGD permissions within 24 hours
  • Waiving road restoration and permission charges levied by state or local authorities
  • Relaxing working hours and working seasons
  • Appointing state nodal officers for support, coordination and faster implementation

Meanwhile, the gap between LPG and PNG usage remains wide. India has around 10 million active PNG consumers, compared with about 330 million LPG users.Hospitality and consumers are already feeling the strain of LPG-related disruptions. The Hotel and Restaurant Association (Western India) (HRAWI) has approached the Maharashtra government seeking an extension or staggered payment of annual licence fees, saying a commercial LPG shortage has forced several establishments to shut. In Patna, residents have flagged delayed deliveries and cases where cylinders are marked as delivered but not received, prompting the district administration to step up monitoring, even as officials maintain there is no shortage. The impact is also visible in other industries. In Gujarat’s Morbi, around 430 ceramic units are set to remain shut for at least three weeks after the West Asia conflict disrupted gas supplies essential for manufacturing, according to an industry representative.



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Oil prices fall and stocks extend gains as US, Israel, Iran continue strikes – SUCH TV

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Oil prices fall and stocks extend gains as US, Israel, Iran continue strikes – SUCH TV



Asian markets mostly rose on Wednesday, and oil prices dipped following another tech-led advance on Wall Street, as the United States hit Iranian missile sites near the key Strait of Hormuz and Tehran struck crude-producing Gulf neighbours.

While the war in the Middle East shows no sign of ending and oil has stuck around $100 a barrel — threatening to fuel a fresh inflation spike — equity traders have shifted back into the market after the steep losses suffered at the outset of the conflict.

However, analysts warned the positive mood could fade if the crisis drags on and energy costs spiral with Hormuz — through which a fifth of global oil and gas flow — effectively closed by Iran.

That comes with central banks increasingly in a bind as the need for lower interest rates to support the economy goes up against the prospect of rising prices, which would need higher borrowing costs.

In a bid to ease traffic through the crucial Strait, US forces dropped several 5,000-pound (2,250 kg) bombs on “hardened Iranian missile sites” near the coast, Central Command said.

Iran has sought to extract a heavy toll on the global economy in retaliation for the US-Israeli attack, including by driving up the cost of oil.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday fumed that allies, which have largely distanced themselves from his war, were not lining up to help escort tankers through Hormuz.

The attacks came as Israel announced it had killed security chief Ali Larijani, a key force leading Iran since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first strikes of the war.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia intercepted six drones and Kuwait’s air defences responded to a rocket and drone attack, authorities from both countries said Wednesday, while two people were killed by missiles near Tel Aviv.

Israel also hit a central Beirut neighbourhood as it looks to take out the Hezbollah.

Rystad Energy estimated just 12.5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern oil remains online, down from the 21 million per day pre-war base.

“But the 12.5 million bpd figure is not secure,” Rystad said. “If the (Hormuz) situation persists, the drop in departures could start feeding through into additional export losses in the weeks ahead, as producers face growing difficulty moving crude out of the Gulf.”

Still, oil prices fell, with West Texas Intermediate losing more than one percent to sit around $95, while Brent dipped 0.8%, though it was still holding above $102.

And stocks continued to defy gravity following gains on Wall Street that were helped by tech giants including Apple and Amazon.

Seoul jumped more than three percent thanks to a surge in chip giants Samsung and SK hynix. The Kospi, however, is still well down from the record highs touched before the war broke out.

Tokyo was up more than two percent, while Taipei, Sydney, Singapore and Wellington also rallied. Hong Kong and Shanghai dipped.

“Asia is picking up the baton with a cautiously constructive tone… all of it leaning on the signal from Wall Street where the S&P and Nasdaq have now strung together a second day of gains, suggesting the market is actively choosing to look through the geopolitical noise rather than price it in the fore,” wrote SPI Asset Management’s Stephen Innes.

However, Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com warned that traders might begin to rethink their positions the longer the conflict rumbles on.

“If the war continues then the US and Israel will have to continue alone, because other NATO members have decided against joining the conflict,” he wrote.

“This may work in favour of Iran keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed for longer.”

Focus is also on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting that concludes later Wednesday.

The bank is expected to keep borrowing costs on hold but it will release its “dot plot” forecast for rates in the coming months, amid speculation it could be forced to hike again.



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