Politics
China oil majors restart Russian oil imports after a 4-month halt, sources say

Chinese state oil majors looking to head off supply shortages caused by the war in the Middle East have resumed seeking Russian crude cargoes after a four-month hiatus, taking advantage of a US sanctions waiver, five trade sources said.
Trading arms under state-run Sinopec and PetroChina have this week made inquiries with suppliers for possible purchases of Russian oil, which would be their first since November, said five sources close to or involved in Russian oil trade.
While no deals were known to have been struck as of Tuesday, two of the sources said transactions were likely to be imminent as Russian oil remains cheap versus rival supplies from Brazil and West Africa despite surging prices and premiums triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran that began on February 28.
Chinese oil majors were “assessing” the situation, said a state oil trader, including whether payment and delivery could be completed within the 30-day waiver window that began on March 12 and applies to cargoes that had already been loaded.
Sinopec and PetroChina did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
One of the sources, involved in Russian oil trading and familiar with PetroChina’s trading operations, said majors could also seek to secure cargoes while the situation is “messy” by buying from Chinese independent refiners or traders with Russian-origin oil already in storage.
“Some teapots are ready to resell, as that makes more money for them than processing at their plants,” said the source, referring to the independent refiners.
End-April arriving ESPO blend, Russia’s flagship Far East export grade, was last heard offered by a Russian producer at $8 a barrel above July ICE Brent on a delivered basis.
That compared with April-loading Brazil’s Tupi grade last pegged at a premium of $12-15 over dated Brent.
FROM DISCOUNT TO PREMIUM
Differentials for ESPO, mostly consumed by China’s independent refiners, flipped into a $2-$3 premium last week for April/May shipments, compared with discounts of $7-$10 for March-loading barrels.
China’s seaborne Russian oil imports surged to an all-time high of 1.92 million barrels per day in February, Kpler data showed, as independent buyers snapped up deeply discounted cargoes after top buyer India’s demand fell.
State oil companies had since late October suspended buying Russian oil after Washington imposed sanctions on Moscow’s two biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.
The spikes in spot premiums and outright Brent prices to more than $100 a barrel would, however, sideline independent refiners, said three of the sources, as they are cushioned for the near term with cheaper inventories of Russian and Iranian oil bought before the war.
Politics
UK, Ukraine set to sign defence pact eyeing drone threats

Britain and Ukraine are set to sign a defence partnership aimed at addressing the threat of low-cost drones, Downing Street announced ahead of a visit from Ukraine’s leader on Tuesday.
Since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran late last month, Tehran has mainly used ballistic missiles to attack Israel but has relied on drones to strike targets in Gulf states.
The UK-Ukraine agreement will “boost global defensive capability against the proliferation of low-cost, high-tech military hardware, including drones”, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office said in a statement.
It seeks to leverage Ukraine’s “expertise” in fending off drones from its years-long war with Russia, as well as Britain’s industrial base, “to manufacture and supply drones and innovative capabilities”.
“Drones, electronic warfare and rapid battlefield innovation are now central to national and economic security, and that has only been further magnified by the conflict in the Middle East,” Starmer said in the statement.
“By deepening our defence partnerships, we are strengthening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from Russia’s brutal, ongoing attacks, while ensuring the UK and our allies are better prepared to meet the threats of the future.”
The deal would also provide 500,000 pounds ($670,000) to fund an “AI Centre of Excellence” to be integrated into the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to London on Tuesday comes after he expressed concerns that global attention on the Middle East conflict could overshadow Ukraine’s war with Russia.
Ukraine’s European allies have vowed to keep up their support for Kyiv after Washington partly rolled back sanctions against Moscow to cool oil prices sent soaring by the Middle East war.
Politics
Suspected suicide attacks kill at least 23 in Nigeria’s Maiduguri

- Security tightened, investigation underway in Maiduguri.
- Multiple blasts hit post office, market, hospital, and Kaleri.
- Security say attacks follow pattern of Boko Haram insurgency.
MAIDUGURI: At least 23 people were killed and 108 injured in suspected multiple suicide-bomb attacks in Maiduguri city, capital of Nigeria’s insurgency-hit northeastern state of Borno, the state police command said in a statement late on Monday.
Borno is at the heart of Nigeria’s extremist insurgency for the past 17 years, which has claimed thousands of lives and displaced 2 million people.
The first blast went off at a post office in the city centre and was immediately followed by another at the popular Monday market nearby, two security sources and three Maiduguri residents told Reuters on Monday.
One blast hit the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital, and another struck the eastern neighbourhood of Kaleri, all in the early evening of Monday.
“Preliminary investigation reveals that the incidents were carried out by suspected suicide bombers,” the state police said in the statement, without saying who was responsible.
Police said normalcy had been restored and security forces had tightened patrols across the city to prevent further attacks, adding that an investigation into the circumstances of the attack was underway.
Security analysts said the attacks had the hallmarks of insurgent group Boko Haram, which together with Daesh West Africa Province, has been escalating attacks against the Nigerian military in Borno.
Maiduguri is among the safest cities in Borno state but at least five worshippers were killed and 35 others injured on Christmas Eve last year when a suspected suicide bomber detonated an explosive inside a mosque.
Besides the insurgency in the northeast, militants have also been expanding in the northwest of the country, where bandit gangs have caused havoc through kidnappings and attacks on communities and schools.
The United States carried out air strikes in Nigeria’s northwest in December and has begun deploying a small number of troops to train Nigerian forces confronting militants.
Politics
Trump was warned of likely Iranian retaliation on Gulf allies: sources

- United States bases in Gulf states targeted.
- Iran nearly halted shipping through Hormuz.
- Democrats report ‘no imminent threat’.
President Donald Trump was warned that attacking Iran could trigger retaliation against US Gulf allies despite his claims on Monday that Tehran’s reaction came as a surprise, said a US official and two sources familiar with US intelligence reports.
Pre-war intelligence assessments did not say that Iran’s response was “a guarantee, but it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” said one source, who, like the other two, requested anonymity to discuss the issue.
The president twice on Monday said that Iran’s retaliatory strikes against Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait were a surprise, the first time at a Kennedy Center board meeting in the White House.
“They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” he said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
Trump’s assertion followed other administration claims that have not been backed by US intelligence reporting, such as that Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the US homeland and that it would need two to four weeks to make a nuclear bomb and would then use it.
Those allegations and an imminent threat posed by Iran to the US and its forces in the region have been among the varying reasons that Trump and some top aides have given to justify his decision to join Israel in launching their air war against Iran on February 28.
Trump was also briefed ahead of the operation that Tehran would likely seek to close the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two other sources familiar with the matter.
Over the past two weeks, Iranian drones and missiles have struck targets in the Gulf states that have included US military bases and an Emirati base hosting French troops, civilian structures, including hotels, airports, and energy facilities.
Iran has also halted almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of oil supplies move, causing global energy prices to spike.
Democratic lawmakers emerged from administration briefings on the war last week, saying they heard of no imminent threat that required the US and Israel to launch the war.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Warnings of a regional war
The US official said that Trump was briefed before the war that striking Iran could trigger a broader regional conflict that would include Iranian retaliation against Gulf capitals, especially if Tehran saw those countries condoning or actively supporting the US attacks.
Trump repeated his claim later on Monday during a signing event in the Oval Office. He was asked if he was surprised that nobody had briefed him about the risk that Iran would strike back at the Gulf states.
“Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit,” replied Trump.
The second source familiar with the matter said that before the US-Israeli attacks, the US intelligence community assessed that Israel’s plan to launch strikes aimed at killing top Iranian leaders likely would result in retaliation against US military and diplomatic outposts.
The administration did not order departures of diplomatic staff from several regional embassies until after the air strikes began.
The community also warned that Iran “could” widen its retaliation to American allies in the region, the source said.
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