Welcome to the 2026 NFL offseason. If your favorite team needs a quarterback, I have some bad news.

Because many football fans are just now turning their eyes to the offseason, here’s a quick overview. The 2026 NFL draft class isn’t particularly strong overall, and it is extremely thin at quarterback. After presumed first selection Fernando Mendoza (Heisman winner, national champion at Indiana and Raiders QB in a little under three months), the best options are Alabama’s Ty Simpson and … probably LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier? This class might play out like 2022, when only one quarterback went in Round 1 (Kenny Pickett, No. 20) and only four went in the first two days.

There are some names available in the veteran quarterback market, but those names aren’t very exciting. While last offseason included free agent quarterbacks such as (now-Super Bowl champion) Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers, this offseason’s pool includes … well, Daniel Jones (off an Achilles injury) and Aaron Rodgers (one year older). Because Jones and Rodgers are both strongly suspected to stay with their current teams, the biggest contract might fall to Packers backup and quality spot starter Malik Willis. Or could the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins get one more solid contract after Atlanta releases him before the new league year begins March 11?

If the draft and the free agent market are thin, what is a quarterback-needy team to do? Win in the margins. While this isn’t the offseason for stacking quarterbacks on a big board or pick-your-poison free agent targets, the smart teams with financial flexibility will still have the ability to attack the veteran quarterback trade market. And two names stand out above the rest: Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. (San Francisco backup Mac Jones reportedly will not be traded this offseason.)

When Murray and Tagovailoa are the offseason’s best options, it isn’t a great QB offseason. But both are workable under the right conditions, and below them, there are plenty of veteran journeymen or low-risk gambles teams will consider at the position. Quarterback movement is inevitable, so let’s look at all of the candidates for changing teams, as well as the teams in the market for their services.

Jump to:
Murray | Tagovailoa
Next tier | Sleepers
Teams looking for QBs

In the past 11 drafts, a quarterback has been selected with the first pick nine times. The three drafted longest ago (2015 Jameis Winston, 2016 Jared Goff and 2018 Baker Mayfield) are with new teams. The ensuing six remain on the teams that drafted them. Murray, drafted in 2019, is the longest tenured of those six … for now.

As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last week, the Cardinals are actively seeking a trade partner for Murray’s deal. It makes sense. Cutting Murray outright would incur a dead cap hit north of $54.7 million. It wouldn’t be the biggest dead cap hit ever — when Russell Wilson was released by the Broncos in 2024, he left behind a whopping $85 million in dead money. But it would be the second biggest.

By trading Murray, the Cardinals could save on dead money and get draft capital in return. Assuming Murray is traded the moment the new league year begins, the Cardinals would take on only the $17 million in cap already due Murray from prorated signing and option bonuses. Relative to his expected 2026 cap hit of over $52 million, they’d save around $35 million in cap space — a huge boon.

But the remaining contract is prohibitive in trade negotiations. If Murray’s deal is moved as is, he would have three years and about $125 million left on it — an average of $41.6 million per year, just above Matthew Stafford for 16th among all quarterbacks. Of that $125 million, a whopping $60 million would be guaranteed, a huge amount for a deal acquired via trade. This is one of the reasons why quarterback megacontracts aren’t often traded. Because of roster bonus timing and salary guarantee kickers deep into the fourth or fifth years of the deal, the acquiring team gets stuck not just with big remaining contract years but also with guaranteed money it can’t easily release or restructure.

Murray’s $22.8 million base salary for the 2026 season is already guaranteed, and another $17 million in roster bonuses is guaranteed by whatever team rosters him — the Cardinals or an acquiring team — on the fifth day of the 2026 league year. As such, Murray would hit the cap for over $40 million in Year 1 and is due another $19.5 million guaranteed in Year 2. This is not a small commitment.

If Murray is considered a veteran dart throw who might steer a listless franchise into a rookie quarterback, then he’s very expensive to add as bridge option. Daniel Jones’ one-year deal with the Colts cost $14 million last season, and he did not cost them any draft capital. Jones is just a few months older than Murray, and from 2019 to 2024 (in other words, excluding Jones’ stellar 2025 season), he was not a significantly worse quarterback than Murray by catch-all metrics. Murray is definitely a more talented player than Jones, but if Jones’ deal is a good proxy for how the league wants to compensate bridge quarterbacks, it’s tough to see the Cardinals dealing Murray without altering his deal.

Unlike many quarterback reclamation projects, Murray did not stumble out of the gates with his first team then bounce around looking for a new home. He won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and made Pro Bowls in 2020 and 2021. He was a great fit in Kliff Kingsbury’s spread-and-shred passing attack and a prolific scrambler, and the certainty of a contract extension was clouded only by a 2022 ACL tear. But he got that extension, and among all of the successful QB reclamation projects over the past several years (including Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, etc.), Jones is the only other one to get a second contract with his original team. (And that original team, the Giants, released Jones less than two years later.)

Post-ACL tear and outside of Kingsbury’s offense, Murray hasn’t been the same quarterback. He returned late in the 2023 season, his first under new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. The Cardinals employed a run-heavy offense but never got the deep play-action shot active with Murray under center. On throws of at least 10 air yards from 2023 to 2025, Murray was 26th in completion percentage, 28th in off-target rate and dead last in EPA per dropback (among 34 quarterbacks). The numbers are all as bad or worse on throws of 20-plus air yards.

This split is a serious departure from where Murray was on similar throws under Kingsbury, and it speaks to the disconnect between Petzing and Murray, as well as the Cardinals’ Marvin Harrison Jr.-sized failure to find a solid downfield target.

Murray is currently recovering from a foot injury of unclear severity, and the Cardinals likely used that injury to keep him on the bench for the entire regular season. Could he have come back? If so, when? And how would he have looked? We have no idea, which makes his offseason even more uncertain.

A foot injury can linger, and Murray’s mobility is integral to his game, so acquiring teams must beware. But there is reason to be quite confident that Murray still has some juice as a quality starter in a shotgun, spread offense. As Jones and Darnold showed us this past season, the 16th-best quarterback in football can captain league-leading offenses if everything around them is right. Murray needs to play with more team speed than the Cardinals had and see more RPOs and screens to maximize his quick release and underneath accuracy. As long as his foot is healthy and his quickness remains, he’d also benefit from an offense that more intentionally folds him into the running game.

Were Murray the only legitimate starter available for trade, the Cardinals would have a leveraged position to force an acquiring team to take on as much money as possible. But Murray is not the only big name available. As such, it’s unlikely he gets dealt before the fifth day of the league year, meaning his contract will need to be adjusted to make it more palatable for an acquiring team. Interestingly, when Schefter reported on the trade availability of Murray and fellow veteran Tagovailoa, he reported that the Dolphins were willing to swallow a portion of Tagovailoa’s deal to facilitate a trade. He reported no such thing about Murray.

If Murray’s contract is traded in its current form, I think the return would be almost nominal — a Day 3 pick. For acquiring teams with plenty of cap space and a long-term rebuild ahead (think teams such as the Jets), keeping the draft capital and spending the money on Murray might be preferable. But would the Cardinals endure the optics of getting just a fourth-round pick for Murray to save the money? I’d wager they’re more likely to take on some dead cap in order to improve the draft compensation they get in return, which would put other teams in play.

From 2022 to 2023, Tagovailoa was third in the league in EPA per dropback behind only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Tagovailoa was third in dropback success rate, behind only Mahomes and Allen. And he was first in explosive pass rate.

Much like Murray, Tagovailoa has been most successful under one playcaller. After a couple of shaky years under coach Brian Flores and a carousel of offensive coordinators, Tagovailoa fell into the Mike McDaniel offense, which subsequently took the league by storm. With his shotgun, play-action system that utilized sudden motion at the snap, McDaniel opened intermediate passing windows more easily than even Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay had before him. From 2022 to 2023, Tagovailoa led the league with 39.5% of his throws going at least 10 yards downfield and had the second-fastest time to throw (2.54 seconds) behind only Tom Brady. That’s how an offense breaks the league.

Tagovailoa has a hyper-specific and fragile skill set, though. A tremendous RPO passer because of his fast release, willingness to challenge coverages with anticipation and accuracy within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, Tagovailoa was perfectly equipped to lead the McDaniel offense. He trusted McDaniel exhaustively and, at times, to his detriment, throwing to spots on the field almost independent of safety rotation. More than any other quarterback we had seen in the Shanahan system, Tagovailoa was willing to make it work.

When McDaniel was on the cutting edge ahead of opposing defensive coordinators, the system sang. But because Tagovailoa struggles with escaping the pocket, throws on the move and adjusting beyond his first read, any defensive coordinator who could get the jump on McDaniel never had to fear Tagovailoa punishing the opponent in the scramble drill. After coaches such as Brandon Staley (2022) and Steve Spagnuolo (2023) had some success against the system, their approaches proliferated. As such, we can say with confidence that Tagovailoa is a scheme-dependent quarterback.

For a bridge QB, this isn’t terrible news. The way to maximize Tagovailoa is very clear. Though it’s unlikely he gets such an enormous McDaniel-esque bump to the point where he’s among the league leaders in quarterback metrics in 2026 and beyond, a new spin on a spread, RPO-heavy offense would provide passable play. Tagovailoa is the ideal bridge quarterback, in that you can win with him, but he won’t hold off a promising rookie passer for long. Think about the tough decision the Vikings faced when they had to decide if they should keep Sam Darnold or commit to J.J. McCarthy. It’s unlikely Tagovailoa forces such a debate.

He is in the midst of a lucrative contract extension, and the financials behind trading his deal would be tough. Cutting Tagovailoa would create $99 million in dead cap — a record-setting figure. Even with a post-June 1 designation, Tagovailoa would still batter the Dolphins’ salary cap with a $67 million dead cap figure in 2026 alone, beating Wilson’s single-year record of $53 million cleanly. Releasing Tagovailoa would be the largest admission of financial error in NFL history.

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It also might be inevitable. Any contract this brutal to terminate is similarly brutal to trade. An acquiring team would take on a three-year deal with a $39 million base salary in 2026 (fully guaranteed) and be saddled with another $15 million option bonus if Tagovailoa is traded before the third day of the 2026 league year. Because Schefter reported that the Dolphins are willing to swallow some of Tagovailoa’s contract to get a trade done, it’s easy to infer that they’d take on the $15 million bonus. Yes, it would increase their 2026 dead cap hit after the trade to over $60 million, which would set the single-season record. But unlike in a post-June 1 release, they wouldn’t have to take on any more dead cap in 2027.

I’d wager that the Dolphins don’t just take on Tagovailoa’s $15 million but also some more of the 2026 salary to make his contract more of a one-year deal in the $30 million range (with some team options behind). This would make Tagovailoa’s compensation commensurate with the deal Darnold signed with Seattle, as a scheme-dependent quarterback with the right tool kit to manage an elite offense for the correct coaching staff.

Tagovailoa is extremely unlikely to return much of anything in a trade package. While Murray could easily get into the range of a Day 2 pick, I would be surprised if Tagovailoa is traded for anything better than a Round 4 selection. It would require the Dolphins taking on even more salary to get anything in trade return for their former franchise passer, and they can take on only so much because they must also release Tyreek Hill this offseason.

The next tier

Though Tagovailoa and Murray are the two big-name quarterbacks, smart teams will investigate secondary options. Willis is the splashy young name. The 26-year-old has only six career starts — three with the Titans and three with the Packers — during his four-year career. All six were spot starts behind an injured QB1, and his reps with the Titans were brutal. Willis had no touchdowns and three interceptions, completed just 50% of his passes, was sacked 10 times and averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in Tennessee. He had some value as a rusher, with 27 carries for 123 yards and a score, but not nearly enough to move the needle.

In Green Bay, Willis showed some of the talent that got him drafted in Round 3 in 2022. In 11 games, Willis has 42 carries for 261 yards and three scores. That 6.2 yards-per-rush mark would be fourth behind Murray, Baker Mayfield and Spencer Rattler over the past two seasons among passers with 100-plus dropbacks. Willis’ 13% scramble rate and 11.8% explosive run rate would lead all QBs. This guy is a legitimate threat with the ball.

But it’s the improvement as a passer that really stands out. Over those two seasons, Willis has gone 70-of-89 (79% completion rate) for 972 yards, and that 10.9 yards per attempt ranks miles ahead of second place (Lamar Jackson at 8.7). His 9.2 yards per dropback is also miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 7.7). And his 86.3 total QBR is miles ahead of second place (Jackson at 69.9).

Though Willis’ production has come against some soft passing defenses, such as the Bears and Ravens, the film is undeniable. Willis is throwing accurate passes down the field in rhythm. He can throw inside of structure to the correct option, and he can make quality throws outside of structure, too. The sack rate is worrying — 9.6%, one of the league’s highest over the past two years. But that places him somewhere on the Justin Fields–Jayden Daniels continuum of playmaking, and that’s not a bad place to be.

Watching Malik Willis. Bears bust the coverage so Christian Watson is wide open but Willis doesn’t see it and hits the harder throw to Musgrave instead.

Great velocity on this ball. pic.twitter.com/gdvJC1noiD

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) February 10, 2026

Willis is no longer a sleeper signing. His services will be hotly sought after by teams looking for a still-young gamble at a franchise quarterback. But just how hotly? It’s hard to find a historical proxy for “highly valued free agent with six career starts at quarterback.”

One of the few solid comparisons we can use is Jimmy Garoppolo. Though Garoppolo could not be more stylistically opposite from Willis, he had only seven starts in his first four seasons as a pro — including two before the 49ers traded a second-round pick to acquire him from the Patriots after his third season. Garoppolo had five starts for the 49ers in 2017, went 5-0 as a starter with solid stats and got a five-year deal worth $137.5 million — the largest contract in NFL history at the time.

OK, so maybe not the best proxy.

Brock Osweiler can also help us out. Drafted in the second round in 2012, Osweiler didn’t start a game until his fourth year with the Broncos, as a little-known quarterback named Peyton Manning turned out to be much healthier than Denver could have dreamed. Osweiler parlayed his seven starts (5-2, pretty average stats) into a four-year, $72 million deal with the Texans in 2016 — a substantial contract at the time, and one that Houston traded to the Browns with significant draft capital the next offseason after it became clear Osweiler wasn’t a starting-caliber quarterback.

Osweiler got $18 million per year, which was about 8.6% of the 2016 salary cap. A decade later, with a salary cap projection just over $300 million, a similar deal would cost $26 million per year. This feels like the correct value for Willis. Fields made $20 million per year on his two-year contract with the Jets, and Mayfield is making $33 million per year in Tampa Bay. That $13 million difference between the two feels like the sweet spot for Willis.

The other significant (soon-to-be) free agent is Cousins, whom the Falcons will reportedly release this offseason. He will turn 38 before the 2026 season kicks off and is now more than two years removed from an Achilles injury, so we can pretty easily tie his value to that of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was 41 and two years removed from an Achilles tear when he signed his one-year, $13.6 million deal with the Steelers. Much like Rodgers, who had some flashes of quality ball in the back half of the 2024 season with the Jets before he hit free agency, Cousins looked decent stepping in during the back half of the 2025 season with the Falcons once Michael Penix Jr. went down for the year.

Cousins is an evident stopgap quarterback — a one-year solution for a team that needs passable play for short-term relief. While Murray, Tagovailoa and Willis could all play their way into multiyear futures with new teams, Cousins is reportedly mulling retirement and television as an option in this free agent period. If the marriage isn’t right for one last go, he might forgo signing with a team entirely. But of the super-veteran options (Cousins, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco and Garoppolo), he is comfortably the most talented remaining passer.

I’d make it 65-35 that he ends up signing a one-year deal somewhere.

The super deep indie cuts

With a largely unsatisfying draft class waiting in the wings, there almost certainly will be movement among No. 2 QBs as teams cycle through young passers in hope of striking gold on a Hail Mary heave. Here are a few names to watch for those teams that miss out on Malik Willis, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray.

• Will Levis, Tennessee Titans: The 2023 second-round pick lost his job to Cam Ward the moment the Titans landed the first pick in 2024. In July, Levis underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, and he is now approaching the final year of his rookie deal. A disasterclass artist so prolific he produced multiple screenshot-worthy reactions to his own turnovers, Levis is remembered worse than he actually played. He has prototypical size and good arm strength. Because the Titans’ front office and coaching staff are completely new, I’d be stunned if he isn’t traded this offseason.

• Jalen Milroe, Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks hedged their Darnold bet with a Round 3 selection on Milroe, who now starts down the path that Willis was on with Tennessee. Milroe is only QB3 in Seattle behind Darnold and Drew Lock, but Milroe started above Ty Simpson — the nominal QB2 in this draft class — at Alabama in 2024. Teams likely will compare their predraft grades on Milroe to the grades on this year’s class, and if they can get Milroe at a discount, they could try to trade for him instead of drafting an inferior prospect.

• Tanner McKee, Philadelphia Eagles: The backup QB on Howie Roseman’s roster is always in danger of being dealt. McKee typically looks strong in the preseason, and he looked acceptable in two Week 18 starts while throwing to the Eagles’ backups. He is an older prospect (will be 26 next season), but he still has a developmental arc in that he has never seen extended game action. In a world where Will Howard might be starting for the Steelers or Quinn Ewers could be in for the Dolphins, McKee deserves a camp fight somewhere.

• Davis Mills, Houston Texans: It’s hard to see the Texans trading Mills, whom they just gave a one-year, $7 million extension to continue providing effective QB2 play behind C.J. Stroud. But perhaps a strong offer could entice them to deal Mills, who is far from an exciting option at 28 years old but clearly is somewhere between the QB2 and QB1 worlds for quarterbacking quality. Note that his old offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, now coaches the Dolphins’ offense; Miami would need a new quarterback if it flips Tagovailoa.

• Anthony Richardson Sr., Indianapolis Colts: It was an odd year for Richardson, who reportedly was having a solid camp but could not fend off Daniel Jones for the starting QB job in Indianapolis. Jones took off like wildfire, but once he got hurt, Richardson was unavailable given a freak orbital fracture. Richardson is a huge sleeper now — in that the Colts are likely set at QB2 with Riley Leonard behind Jones — and his youth and physical tool kit merit further opportunities and a fresh start on another team.

• Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints: This is the guy I’d really be pursuing if I were in desperate need. Rattler was a totally acceptable young starter during his eight games of action before Tyler Shough took the reins in New Orleans. And while Shough elevated the offense some, he enjoyed a much more successful defense than Rattler got in his starts. Rattler has great physical tools for playmaking, but he also showed he could be a more cautious and methodical player last season. I’d deal a Day 3 pick for him right now if I were looking for camp competition.

• Derek Carr, retired: Apparently Carr would maybe come back for the right team? This does not interest me at all. Remember, Carr is still under contract with the Saints, so he isn’t free if he unretires. He has to return to New Orleans, waive his no-trade clause then get dealt. (Presumably not for much, as the Saints don’t want to keep his contract on the books, but still.) Carr will be 35 next month, so he hasn’t aged out of the league just yet, but it’s difficult to be enthusiastic about his ceiling outside of the Klint Kubiak offense.

• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: If Fernando Mendoza is the obvious first pick and Simpson is the next man off the board, then the rest of the field is scrambling for a QB3 option. I’d have Nussmeier above players such as Carson Beck (Georgia) and Cade Klubnik (Clemson), as Nussmeier had exciting 2024 film before a 2025 oblique injury robbed him of his throwing power. The size is suboptimal, but the arm talent is there. Nussmeier feels like a pick somewhere in the 70s.

The teams that might need one of these passers …

As I see it, there are 10 teams in clear need of an additional quarterback this offseason. That count does not include Las Vegas, which will draft Fernando Mendoza with the first pick and start a new era of prolific Raiders football (hopefully). Included in those 10 teams are the Cardinals and the Dolphins, who — independent of exactly how they move on from their current passers — will at least look for competition in 2026.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta can defensibly enter 2026 with Penix under close scrutiny as a third-year starter. But he’s coming off a late-season ACL tear, so the Falcons will need someone who can start in September if he’s not ready. More likely, the Falcons open up the starting job in a camp competition between Penix and another outside option.

Funnily enough, Cousins would be a great fit in Atlanta. He has played for new coach Kevin Stefanski successfully in the past (with Minnesota) and obviously has an existing rapport with the Falcons’ pass catchers. Is the blood in Atlanta still bad now that the front office and coaching staff have been replaced?

Atlanta likely won’t compete hard for Willis’ services in free agency, but I could easily see that front office trading for one of the backups on rookie contracts who are collecting dust on another team’s bench.

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Indianapolis Colts

Assuming the Colts sign Daniel Jones, I could still see them looking for a veteran option to start over Riley Leonard while Jones slowly comes back from the Achilles injury. (No, not Philip Rivers. That’s a little too veteran.) This seems like the right team for Marcus Mariota or Joe Flacco.

If the Colts do not re-sign Jones, they’ll have perhaps the biggest QB need on the market. But they will … right?

New York Jets

I don’t think it would be egregious for the Jets to enter next season with a QB room of Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor and (insert middle-round rookie here). Fields was frustratingly cautious for the Jets last season, but most of the free agent options aren’t much better than him or Taylor.

The Jets do have plenty of money to acquire either Tua Tagovailoa or Kyler Murray. Given the Jets’ intradivisional familiarity with Tagovailoa’s game, I’d be surprised if they go that direction (though, with Frank Reich calling the offense, the RPO game would work well). Murray seems like a more realistic option. GM Darren Mougey is a patient team manager, but he was also present for the Russell Wilson fiasco in Denver, and he knows how badly the Cardinals want to get out of the Murray contract. The Jets have a ton of first-round picks incoming and don’t need to hold on to their third- or fourth-rounders as preciously as other teams.

If I had to guess where Murray ends up next season, this would be my spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers

If the Steelers re-sign Aaron Rodgers to another one-year deal, God bless ’em. Rodgers’ lack of mobility and diminishing arm talent is an enormous limiting factor on their offense. Only two quarterbacks (Fields and Brady Cook) threw shorter passes than Rodgers in 2025, and Rodgers offered the Steelers nothing on extended plays: 39th of 45 quarterbacks by success rate on extended dropbacks. Hopefully a Rodgers return would come with an accompanying trade for a young passer who can compete in camp — I think Rattler would learn a ton from Rodgers, in that Rattler has a style of play reminiscent of prime Rodgers — but I’m not holding my breath on that.

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Cleveland Browns

The Browns should aggressively pursue and sign Willis in free agency. Why not? Already leveraged aggressively against future cap years, the Browns will start to make up financial ground only once they have a quarterback on a good deal. If they trade for Will Levis or Anthony Richardson, with one year remaining on their respective contracts, they’ll be negotiating from a weaker position should either player actually hit.

They should give Willis $30 million per year now, backload it and let him ride as their developmental starter for the next few seasons. His tools are so remarkably beyond those of Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, and he has a style of play similar to Lamar Jackson, with whom Todd Monken just worked. This is a good marriage.

Miami Dolphins

Miami should wait on making any big moves at quarterback until it has swallowed its 2026 cap lumps. Jeff Hafley is a defensive head coach, and the Dolphins’ roster construction will likely mirror that of Seattle’s under Mike Macdonald: Build an elite defense, then cycle through midtier quarterbacks trying to strike gold. Miami should not be trading any picks, as it needs rookie-contract, rosterable players to fill out its depth chart.

I like the Dolphins as a Kirk Cousins team, but if he prefers to return to Minnesota, it’s tough to find any ideal options. Malik Willis has the coaching familiarity, but the Dolphins will get priced out. Bobby Slowik coached Davis Mills in Houston, but again, I don’t like trading picks given the Dolphins’ current cap position. It really might be a Quinn Ewers year in Miami.

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota will absolutely bring in competition for J.J. McCarthy, as it reportedly tried to do last season with Rodgers. Cousins is the obvious choice because he has scheme familiarity from his time in Minnesota as coach Kevin O’Connell’s starter. But O’Connell is a big believer in quarterback development, and I would not be surprised if he wants to go for a younger player to challenge McCarthy’s seat not just in 2026 but also beyond. Every toolsy young passer who can operate from the pocket (Tanner McKee, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, etc.) is on my radar for a surprise Vikings trade.

(It will probably just be Cousins, though, let’s be honest.)

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Arizona Cardinals

The good news for the Cardinals is that 2025 spot starter Jacoby Brissett has one year left on his deal and is a totally palatable bridge quarterback. With new head coach Mike LaFleur stepping in with the Sean McVay system, I would not be surprised to see Rams free agent Jimmy Garoppolo also make his way to Arizona as a potential spot starter instead of Brissett. The Cardinals must invest in some youth at quarterback, and I’d wager they’re in the Malik Willis market accordingly.

The incoming changes to the Cardinals’ offensive line and running back room do some damage to the quality of their developmental bedrock. But despite Arizona’s poor performance this season, a young passer could do a lot worse than Michael Wilson, Trey McBride and whatever can be gleaned from Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals seem like the right team for a Ty Simpson pick in the second round.

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford won the MVP award and confirmed his return for another season in 2026, but I don’t trust his back at all — even and especially after the iron man season he just had. The Rams’ only youth at quarterback is No. 3 QB Stetson Bennett IV, and as such, they should strongly pursue young backups on the trade market this offseason. Will Levis is a great fit, as is Tanner McKee. But I’d wager McVay wants more playmaking at the position, so watch out for Anthony Richardson and Spencer Rattler as well.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs need a spot starter! Patrick Mahomes is rehabbing an ACL/LCL tear suffered Dec. 14 with the hope of playing in Week 1, but the Chiefs will likely be uber-cautious with their franchise star. No. 2 QB is not a secure spot either, as Gardner Minshew is a rising free agent. The Chiefs might simply return Minshew and hope to get Mahomes back by Week 5, but they’re a good candidate for a veteran free agent addition, as well.

At its best, the NBA can be the best — all-in, all-out competition and drama, especially in the playoffs.

The regular season, however, is different; too often you don’t know what you are going to get.

Load management, tanking for draft position and a run of gambling-related scandals that have ensnared players and even a head coach have left fans understandably suspicious.

Is this real or something else?

Against this backdrop, one of the league’s biggest stars, Milwaukee‘s Giannis Antetokounmpo, might not have done anything wrong, but he also didn’t do the NBA any favors last week when he announced he had taken a small ownership in the prediction market Kalshi.

Kalshi isn’t a sportsbook, like a DraftKings or a BetMGM. It is a platform that allows individuals to buy and trade a prediction contract on a binary question — will this happen, yes or no?

What began as a way to “wager” on who would win an election or an Oscar has come for all segments of society, sports in particular.

You can, for example, “predict” whether an NBA team will win or lose a game, whether it will win or lose by a certain number of points, whether an individual player will register more than a specific number of points or blocks, and even whether someone will play at all.

It also extends to off-court results — awards, trades and so on. Outside of sports, it is a free-for-all, with everything from “will Timothée Chalamet and Kylie Jenner be engaged this year” (46.5% say yes) to whether the number of measles cases will surpass 10,000 (38% say yes).

Because of the nature of some of the predictions, the results are open to easy manipulation that would be especially hard to detect.

These predictive markets are the last thing professional sports leagues need seeping into the public consciousness. Even worse when star athletes become involved as owners (a nonwagered prediction: Antetokounmpo won’t be the last).

Consider that last week a rumor apparently circulated, mostly within college fraternities and sororities, that actor Mark Wahlberg would attend the Super Bowl. That caused nearly $24 million to be bet on that occurring. Only, it turns out Wahlberg apparently didn’t go. Kalshi still hadn’t settled the bet as of early Wednesday.

No malfeasance has been alleged, but eyebrows and mistrust have justifiably arisen.

Obviously something such as whether to attend or not attend an event — or generating the rumor that someone might attend or not attend an event — is easier for someone to influence than winning a game or covering a specific performance spread. Yet big money is being laid on it anyway.

Under the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement, Antetokounmpo is allowed to endorse and make small equity investments in sports betting companies, which is how the league treats prediction markets. Players are prohibited from promoting NBA-specific wagers.

Considering the growth of Kalshi — estimates have market volume growing from about $2 billion in 2024 to $24 billion in 2025 — it is likely a wise move. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC on Tuesday that trading volume exceeded $1 billion on Sunday’s Super Bowl alone.

“I love the Kalshi markets and have been checking them often recently,” Antetokounmpo said in a statement.

Kalshi is unlike a sportsbook in that it profits off the trades, not the results. The company often equates what it does to the stock market. It recently announced increased surveillance and enforcement to identify suspicious activity on the platform.

Great, but is it enough?

When, in 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court declared the federal ban on sports wagering unconstitutional, governments, regulatory bodies and sports leagues worked to set up extensive integrity systems.

Despite that, prop bets on individual performances — including first-half rebounding totals, for example — have proved to be a soft spot. Players can simply fake an injury to assure the under. The predictions market is next-level, inviting even greater skepticism.

One of the popular categories last week was, for example, whether Antetokounmpo would be traded (he wasn’t), which is something Antetokounmpo himself would have significant say over.

This all comes on top of fan dissatisfaction with teams resting players for regular-season games to assure maximum performance in the playoffs. The practice can make certain contests noncompetitive.

Then there is the age-old issue of tanking. With a potentially epic draft class currently in college basketball, there is little incentive for teams with losing records to do anything but try to improve their chances at acquiring a better pick.

On Saturday, Utah led Orlando 94-87 entering the fourth quarter. The Jazz were led by Lauri Markkanen (27 points), Jaren Jackson Jr. (22 points) and Jusuf Nurkic (16 rebounds). None of those three, however, played in the fourth quarter as the Magic came back to win 120-117. Utah fell to 16-37 on the season.

OK, then.

All this might be legal. All of it might be on the up-and-up. Contests, of course, have been fixed long before legalized wagering.

The more intertwined the leagues, teams and players get with sports betting, however, the more fans are being asked to extend their blind faith.

At some point, perception defines reality and optics are going to overwhelm everything.

Trying to assess the men’s college basketball Coach of the Year race is more difficult than ever.

In the pre-transfer portal era, we would compare preseason rankings to current ones, figure out which teams overachieved most and then identify our candidates. But with so many rosters changing dramatically from year to year, preseason rankings are much less predictive than in past decades.

And how do we factor in the talent, or lack thereof, on a team’s roster? In the NIL and portal era, the line between head coach and general manager is blurry and different for every team. Is it a boost for a coach to overachieve with middling talent? Or should he be dinged for assembling an average roster in the first place?

ESPN college basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf attempted to answer all these questions. They each submitted their top 10 candidates for 2025-26 Coach of the Year, then debated until they reached a consensus top 12 — with a few honorable mentions — heading into the final stretch of the season.

1. Tommy Lloyd, Arizona

Lloyd has guided Arizona to a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament in each of his four seasons in Tucson, including a 1-seed in 2022. Now he has his best roster since taking over. One of the final two unbeatens of the season, the Wildcats’ 22-0 record includes wins away from home over UConn, BYU, Florida and Alabama. Arizona lost five of its top eight players from last season, including leading scorer Caleb Love and NBA draft lottery pick Carter Bryant, but are on an eight-week run at No. 1 in the AP poll after debuting at No. 13 in the preseason. — Jeff Borzello

2. Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska

After finishing 7-13 in the Big Ten last season, Nebraska’s athletic director had to release a statement to temper hot-seat talk around Hoiberg. Now Hoiberg is authoring one of the greatest turnarounds in Division I basketball history, coaching his team to a program-record 20-game winning streak to open the season. The Cornhuskers could capture their first conference title since 1950 with Rienk Mast, who missed last season due to injury, and Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort leading a top-25 offense. — Myron Medcalf

Byington did a terrific job in Year 1, turning a program that won four SEC games under Jerry Stackhouse in 2023-24 into an NCAA tournament team in 2024-25. He’s doing an even better job in Year 2. Vanderbilt opened the season with 16 straight wins, with a marquee victory over Alabama to go with defeats against likely NCAA tournament teams SMU, Saint Mary’s and UCF. The Commodores were picked to finish 11th in the SEC preseason poll but are a locked-in top-25 team and would be a top-four seed if the season ended today. — Borzello

May was a Coach of the Year candidate last season, when he guided Michigan to a 19-win improvement in his first season in Ann Arbor, leading the Wolverines to the Sweet 16 a year after finishing 8-24. This season, he has a legitimate national championship contender despite losing three starters year over year. They put together a dominant nonconference run, including a string of three wins by a combined 110 points over San Diego State, Auburn and Gonzaga en route to the Players Era championship during Feast Week. And the Wolverines have been ranked in the top five of the AP poll since December. — Borzello

5. Bill Self, Kansas

Self has earned these honors only two times in his 33-year coaching career. He’s worthy of consideration again this season given the turbulence he’s had to endure. Yes, he has Darryn Peterson, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft. But Peterson has missed 10 games and has failed to play more than 25 minutes in five others due to injuries. That has forced Self to manage a day-to-day unpredictability none of his competitors on this list have endured. Even with the uncertainty, Kansas entered the week with a top-25 offense and defense and a third-place standing in one of the strongest conferences. — Medcalf

6. Brad Underwood, Illinois

Underwood’s roster was decimated this past offseason: He lost two players to the 2025 NBA draft while four others transferred to programs they are now averaging double figures for. But he rebooted with a new group led by Keaton Wagler — a former four-star recruit turned projected first-round NBA draft pick — and has shepherded Illinois to wins over Purdue and Nebraska without star guard Kylan Boswell (14.3 points per game). Underwood’s team also leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, per BartTorvik. — Medcalf

Otzelberger has Iowa State trending toward its third straight top-three NCAA tournament seed despite losing three starters, including the top two scorers, from last season. The Cyclones have gone from No. 16 in the AP preseason poll to No. 5 in this week’s edition as bona fide Final Four and Big 12 title contenders. With one of the season’s best wins — a 23-point victory at Purdue in early December — Iowa State once again has one of college basketball’s elite defenses and the best offense of the Otzelberger era. — Borzello

Izzo is worthy of a spot on this list most seasons. He’s here now because he didn’t raid the portal to reset after a 30-win Michigan State team lost its top three scorers after last season. Instead, he chose to develop the remaining players from that Elite Eight squad — without any former five-star recruits — in what has been one of his most impressive coaching jobs. Jeremy Fears Jr. (8.8 assists per game) is a top-five point guard nationally. Coen Carr has gone from 50th to 11th in defensive efficiency in the Big Ten year over year, per Evan Miya. Jaxon Kohler is a strong All-Big Ten candidate. And Carson Cooper has doubled his scoring average from last season. — Medcalf

As the coach of one of the final two unbeatens, Steele deserves a spot on this list. Miami (Ohio) wasn’t even picked to win the Mid-American Conference entering the season, with Akron earning 11 of the 13 first-place votes (Miami had the other two). But the RedHawks started the season with 23 straight wins, and while none would be classified as marquee, victories away from home over the likes of Wright State, Bowling Green, Kent State and Toledo are not insignificant. They also beat preseason favorite Akron. Steele, who has steadily improved the program in each of his four seasons at Miami, has the it ranked for the first time since 1999 and off to the best start in program history. — Borzello

10. Jon Scheyer, Duke

In a landscape of older and more experienced players, Scheyer continues to win with young teams. This year, his team is led by freshman Cameron Boozer, a front-runner for National Player of the Year, and other early career standouts. The Blue Devils have one loss (82-81 to Texas Tech on Dec. 20), and marquee wins over Kansas, Arkansas, Michigan State, Florida and Louisville (twice). They’re also top five in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Even more impressive? The average Division I experience of the other nine rosters in KenPom’s top 10 is 1.98 years; Duke’s is just 0.88, 309th out of 365 teams. — Medcalf

11. Bucky McMillan, Texas A&M

Could Bucky Ball translate to the SEC? The answer has been a resounding yes so far. Texas A&M, which was picked 13th in the SEC preseason poll, sits atop the conference standings at 7-1 with only two losses since Nov. 14 — both of which came in overtime. McMillan is in his first season in College Station after five years at Samford, and he’s brought his distinctive brand of basketball — fast-paced, lots of 3-pointers, suffocating pressure defense — with him. Despite returning zero players from the Aggies’ rotation last season, he has the squad on track for the NCAA tournament and in contention for an SEC title. — Borzello

Schertz turned Lincoln Memorial in Harrogate, Tennessee, into a Division II powerhouse, then launched a turnaround during his three years at Indiana State. Now, he has rebuilt Saint Louis, an effort that warrants a place in this conversation. If the sport had an executive of the year award, he would be a candidate for that, too. Schertz tapped the portal for Trey Green (Xavier), Brady Dunlap (St. John’s) and Ishan Sharma (Virginia), each of whom has made more than 40% of their 3-point attempts this season. Those additions, along with the growth of Robbie Avila and Dion Brown, have turned the Billikens into one of the best teams in America (40th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency). — Medcalf

Three that just missed the cut

Johnny Dawkins, UCF
Brad Brownell, Clemson
Ryan Odom, Virginia