Tech
Could a ‘gray swan’ event bring down the AI revolution? Here are 3 risks we should be preparing for
The term “black swan” refers to a shocking event on nobody’s radar until it actually happens. This has become a byword in risk analysis since a book called “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb was published in 2007. A frequently cited example is the 9/11 attacks.
Fewer people have heard of “gray swans“. Derived from Taleb’s work, gray swans are rare but more foreseeable events. That is, things we know could have a massive impact, but we don’t (or won’t) adequately prepare for.
COVID was a good example: precedents for a global pandemic existed, but the world was caught off guard anyway.
Although he sometimes uses the term, Taleb doesn’t appear to be a big fan of gray swans. He’s previously expressed frustration that his concepts are often misused, which can lead to sloppy thinking about the deeper issues of truly unforeseeable risks.
But it’s hard to deny there is a spectrum of predictability, and it’s easier to see some major shocks coming. Perhaps nowhere is this more obvious than in the world of artificial intelligence (AI).
Putting our eggs in one basket
Increasingly, the future of the global economy and human thriving has become tied to a single technological story: the AI revolution. It has turned philosophical questions about risk into a multitrillion-dollar dilemma about how we align ourselves with possible futures.
US tech company Nvidia, which dominates the market for AI chips, recently surpassed US$5 trillion (about A$7.7 trillion) in market value. The “Magnificent Seven” US tech stocks—Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla—now make up about 40% of the S&P 500 stock index.
The impact of a collapse for these companies—and a stock market bust—would be devastating at a global level, not just financially but also in terms of dashed hopes for progress.
AI’s gray swans
There are three broad categories of risk—beyond the economic realm—that could bring the AI euphoria to an abrupt halt. They’re gray swans because we can see them coming but arguably don’t (or won’t) prepare for them.
1. Security and terror shocks
AI’s ability to generate code, malicious plans and convincing fake media makes it a force multiplier for bad actors. Cheap, open models could help design drone swarms, toxins or cyber attacks. Deepfakes could spoof military commands or spread panic through fake broadcasts.
Arguably, the closest of these risks to a “white swan“—a foreseeable risk with relatively predictable consequences—stems from China’s aggression toward Taiwan.
The world’s biggest AI firms depend heavily on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry for the manufacture of advanced chips. Any conflict or blockade would freeze global progress overnight.
2. Legal shocks
Some AI firms have already been sued for allegedly using text and images scraped from the internet to train their models.
One of the best-known examples is the ongoing case of The New York Times versus OpenAI, but there are many similar disputes around the world.
If a major court were to rule that such use counts as commercial exploitation, it could unleash enormous damages claims from publishers, artists and brands.
A few landmark legal rulings could force major AI companies to press pause on developing their models further—effectively halting the AI build-out.
3. One breakthrough too many: innovation shocks
Innovation is usually celebrated, but for companies investing in AI, it could be fatal. New AI technology that autonomously manipulates markets (or even news that one is already doing so) would make current financial security systems obsolete.
And an advanced, open-source, free AI model could easily vaporize the profits of today’s industry leaders. We got a glimpse of this possibility in January’s DeepSeek dip, when details about a relatively cheaper, more efficient AI model developed in China caused US tech stocks to plummet.
Why we struggle to prepare for gray swans
Risk analysts, particularly in finance, often talk in terms of historical data. Statistics can give a reassuring illusion of consistency and control. But the future doesn’t always behave like the past.
The wise among us apply reason to carefully confirmed facts and are skeptical of market narratives.
Deeper causes are psychological: our minds encode things efficiently, often relying on one symbol to represent very complex phenomena.
It takes us a long time to remodel our representations of the world into believing a looming big risk is worth taking action over—as we’ve seen with the world’s slow response to climate change.
How can we deal with gray swans?
Staying aware of risks is important. But what matters most isn’t prediction. We need to design for a deeper sort of resilience that Taleb calls “antifragility“.
Taleb argues systems should be built to withstand—or even benefit from—shocks, rather than rely on perfect foresight.
For policymakers, this means ensuring regulation, supply chains and institutions are built to survive a range of major shocks. For individuals, it means diversifying our bets, keeping options open and resisting the illusion that history can tell us everything.
Above all, the biggest problem with the AI boom is its speed. It is reshaping the global risk landscape faster than we can chart its gray swans. Some may collide and cause spectacular destruction before we can react.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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Tech
I Tested Garmin Watches for a Decade While Hiking, Biking, and Climbing. Here’s What You Should Buy
Last year, Garmin introduced a Pro version that incorporates the inReach’s satellite communications savvy. Not only does it cost at least $400 more than the Apple Watch Ultra and $200 more than the regular Fenix 8, but you also have to pay for the inReach subscription plan, which has several tiers and ranges from $8/month to $50/month depending on whether you want features like unlimited texting or sending photo messages.
What you get for this mind-boggling price is a sports watch that can do anything and everything. It has best-in-class battery life (every Fenix can last for weeks on a single charge, and up to a month with solar charging) and features like the depth sensor from Garmin’s Descent line, which means this watch works as a full-on dive computer for scuba and free diving. It has a microphone and speaker for basic voice commands (although no onboard cellular connectivity), the surprisingly useful built-in LED flashlight, and Garmin’s signature built-in topographic maps, 24/7 health monitoring, and tracking for over a hundred different activities.
I’ve taken the 51-mm version on pretty much every outdoor sport—snowboarding, trail running, mountain biking, and rock climbing. Every time I use it, its capabilities far outclass my own. I have irritated many a fellow climber by attempting to track route difficulty, duration, and falls while integrating my Body Battery metrics and so on. The danger is always that you’ll spend more time fiddling with your Garmin Fenix 8 than you do with your actual sport. I have the version with the sapphire glass face and the titanium bezel, and have smashed it into rock faces with nary a scratch. If you’re up for paying the price and want a good-looking watch that will last forever (I have friends who are still wearing their Fenix 5s and 6s, and honestly, they’re fine), this is the one to get.
Best Running Watch
The Garmin Forerunner series launched in the early 2000s and has become the quintessential runner’s watch. Like all Garmins, the Forerunner comes in a range of price points, each offering different features. Last year, Garmin released the Forerunner 570 ($550), a midrange model with no LED flashlight or onboard maps, and the Forerunner 970 ($750), which is the premium version. Before I go into detail about why the Forerunner 970 is the best option, I should also say that I have tested many previous Garmin Forerunners at various price points. If you’re not a triathlete, the older Forerunners are still worth considering, and the entry-level $200 Forerunner 165 is aimed explicitly at runners, instead of including triathletes as the more expensive models do.
Tech
Save Up to 40% With These Acer Promo Codes and Discounts
Acer is one of the top largest PC manufacturers in the world, perhaps best known for its gaming line and budget-friendly options. If you’ve already got your eye on an Acer product like a laptop or monitor, and are shopping at the company’s online storefront, you should be using one of these Acer promo codes and coupons to save some cash on your purchase.
Save 40% on Accessories When You Build an Acer Bundle
If you’re buying from Acer, you’re most likely shopping for either a desktop PC or laptop. With this discount, you can get a really solid deal on accessories if you bundle it with a mouse, laptop bag, or headset. When you go to purchase a PC, just click “Build Bundle” and you’ll see some of the eligible options, all of which are reduced by 40%. The Nitro Mechanical Keyboard, for example, goes from $50 to just $30. That 40% is a real discount, too, as that same keyboard costs $50 on Amazon when I checked.
Beyond peripheral add-ons, you can also save 10% off Acer Care Plus extended service plans or McAfee LiveSafe antivirus subscriptions. You can bundle up to five products together to save the most money. If you’re headed off to college (or have a kid in the family), a bundle like this can get you everything you need for a gaming or studying setup on the go.
Shop Rotating Weekly Deals on Monitors and Gaming Gear
Acer’s PC gaming offerings come in either the flagship Predator brand or the budget-tier Nitro. Acer offers rotating weekly deals on everything from monitors to gaming laptops, some of which are my favorites that I’ve tested in their given category. The Acer Nitro V 16, for example, was a budget gaming laptop that I recommended quite a lot last year because of its incredible price. The one I tested was the entry-level version with an Nvidia RTX 5050 inside, but Acer has the RTX 5060 model in its own storefront. It’s $100 off right now at $1,200, which comes with 16 GB of RAM and a terabyte of storage. In fact, it’s only $30 more than the RTX 5050 model, despite offering a significant jump in gaming performance. These discounts are reflected right on the product pages, so there’s no promo code, discount code, or coupon code required.
Acer has a wide selection of monitors available, too, whether that’s a massive 49-incher or a more modest 27-inch gaming workhorse. One of my favorite discounts I saw right now was the Acer Nitro XV2, a 27-inch 1440p display with a 300 Hz refresh rate. It’s 44% off at the time of writing, bringing the price down to just $250. Because these discounts are swapped out on a weekly basis, it’s worth checking back to see if the product you’re eyeing has a new discount.
Select Customers Can Get 15% Off Their Purchase
Acer also offers a number of added discounts at checkout, including 15% off for students. Students will need to verify through Student Beans or SheerID. Because a lot of the devices Acer offers are budget-friendly, they can be attractive for students, and the extra 15% off is the icing on the cake.
We tested the Acer Swift 16 AI last year and really enjoyed the high-resolution, OLED screen and impressively quiet performance. Acer has the smaller version of this same laptop available, the Swift 14 AI, which is currently $150 off. You also might check out the Acer Chromebook Plus 514, a laptop we liked quite a bit when we reviewed it in 2024.
Acer offers this same 15% discount for active duty military, veterans, and their families. It also applies to healthcare professionals, which can be verified through its healthcare discount portal.
Tech
AI Research Is Getting Harder to Separate From Geopolitics
The world’s top AI research conference, the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems—better known as NeurIPS—became the latest organization this week to become embroiled in a growing clash between geopolitics and global scientific collaboration. The conference’s organizers announced and then quickly reversed controversial new restrictions for international participants after Chinese AI researchers threatened to boycott the event.
“This is a potential watershed moment,” says Paul Triolo, a partner at the advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge who studies US-China relations. Triolo argues that attracting Chinese researchers to NeurIPS is beneficial to US interests, but some American officials have pushed for American and Chinese scientists to decouple their work—especially in AI, which has become a particularly sensitive topic in Washington.
The incident could deepen political tensions around AI research, as well as dissuade Chinese scientists from working at US universities and tech companies in the future. “At some level now it is going to be hard to keep basic AI research out of the [political] picture,” Triolo says.
In its annual handbook for paper submissions, issued in mid-March, NeurIPS organizers announced updated restrictions for participation. The rules stated that the event could not provide services including “peer review, editing, and publishing” to any organizations subject to US sanctions, and linked to a database of sanctioned entities. It included companies and organizations on the Bureau of Industry and Security’s entity list and those on another list with alleged ties to the Chinese military.
The new rules would have affected researchers at Chinese companies like Tencent and Huawei who regularly present work at NeurIPS. The database also includes entities from other countries such as Russia and Iran. The US places limits on doing business with these organizations, but there are no rules around academic publishing or conference participation.
The NeurIPS handbook has since been updated to specify that the restrictions apply only to Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons, a list used primarily for terrorist groups and criminal organizations.
“In preparing the NeurIPS 2026 handbook, we included a link to a US government sanctions tool that covers a significantly broader set of restrictions than those NeurIPS is actually required to follow,” the event’s organizers said in a statement issued Friday. “This error was due to miscommunication between the NeurIPS Foundation and our legal team.”
Before they reversed course, the conference organizers initially said that the new rule was “about legal requirements that apply to the NeurIPS Foundation, which is responsible for complying with sanctions,” adding that it was seeking legal consultation on the issue.
Immediate Backlash
The new rule drew swift backlash from AI researchers around the world, particularly in China, which produces a large quantity of cutting-edge machine learning papers and is home to a growing share of the world’s top AI talent. Several academic groups there issued statements condemning the measure and, more importantly, discouraging Chinese academics from attending NeurIPS in the future. Some urged Chinese academics to contribute instead to domestic research conferences, potentially helping increase the country’s influence in relevant science and tech fields.
The China Association of Science and Technology (CAST), an influential government-affiliated organization for scientists and engineers, said Thursday that it would stop providing funding for Chinese scholars traveling to attend NeurIPS and would use the money instead to support domestic and international conferences that “respect the rights of Chinese scholars.”
CAST also said it will no longer count publications at the 2026 NeurIPS conference as academic achievements when evaluating future research funding. It’s unclear if the organization will reverse course now that NeurIPS has walked back the new rule.
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