The global trade volumes slowed noticeably in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, reversing the sharp increase recorded in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, a move which had been triggered by importers front-loading ahead of the implementation of US tariffs, according to Fitch Ratings, a company of S&P Global.

An example of this trade volatility is shown by US imports in Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, when volumes increased 30 per cent year-over-year (YoY) in March but then contracted to -2.8 per cent YoY by June, as highlighted in the latest ‘Fitch-20 Economic Monitor’.

With an average US effective tariff rate of 16 per cent, it expects global trade to slow further in the coming months. At a regional level, export volumes in the two months to June slowed in advanced economies and China but recovered in Korea and Australia. Exports from Mexico, a major trading partner of the US, were flat in Q2, Fitch said in its non-rating action commentary.

The global trade volumes fell in Q2 2025 after a Q1 surge driven by importers front-loading ahead of US tariffs, according to Fitch Ratings.
US import growth slowed from 30 per cent YoY in March to 2.8 per cent in June, with the average effective US tariff at 16 per cent.
Exports weakened in advanced economies and China, while India’s imports rebounded 11 per cent after a sharp Q1 decline.

Import growth slowed sharply in Brazil from 16 per cent in Q1 2025 to 4 per cent in Q2 2025, as past monetary tightening continues to weigh on domestic demand. In India, import volume growth rebounded from almost -13 per cent YoY in Q1 2025 to 11 per cent YoY in Q2 2025, while in Mexico it was flat.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (SG)

At the end of 2028, the level of US real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to be about 0.1 per cent higher than it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections because of the economic effects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs and lower net immigration, according to the ‘CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028’ published this month.

Real GDP is the nation’s economic output adjusted to remove the effects of changes in prices.

In the near term, the net effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher tariffs and lower net immigration on aggregate demand and the labour supply drive most of the changes in the agency’s forecast. The reconciliation act reduced taxes for the vast majority of US households.

US growth in 2026 would be 0.4 pp higher than in the last projections by the non-partisan CBO, reflecting the 2025 reconciliation act’s boost to consumption, private investment and federal purchases and the reducing impact of uncertainty about US trade policy.
In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand would drag growth.

In 2025, the growth of real GDP is projected to be 0.5 percentage points lower in CBO’s current projections than it was in the agency’s January 2025 projections, primarily because the negative effects on output stemming from new tariffs and lower net immigration more than offset the positive effects of provisions of the reconciliation act this year.

In 2026, the reconciliation act’s effects boosting growth dominate the effects slowing it that stem from the reduction in net immigration. Waning of the elevated uncertainty about trade policy provides modest support to economic growth next year as supply chains begin to adjust to the higher tariffs.

Growth next year would be 0.4 percentage points higher than in the previous projections, reflecting the reconciliation act’s boost to consumption, private investment and federal purchases and the diminishing effects of uncertainty about US trade policy.

In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration on the labour force and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand would act as a drag on growth.

Partially offsetting those effects, an increase in domestic production, driven by higher tariffs, provides a boost to economic growth. As a result, real GDP growth in those years is roughly the same as it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections.

In addition to boosting aggregate demand in the near term, the reconciliation act will, in CBO’s assessment, raise real potential output by increasing the supply of labour, the capital stock and the and total factor productivity (TFP), the average real output per combined unit of labour and capital, excluding the effects of cyclical changes in the economy.

Meanwhile, the CBO estimated that President Donald Trump’s tariffs would shrink the US economy and add to inflation while reducing the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion.

In a published letter to Senate Democrats, the CBO estimated the budgetary and economic effects of tariff increases that were implemented through executive actions between January 6 and May 13.

The analysis found that shrinking of the US economy would vary but said that tariffs would reduce GDP growth by 0.06 per cent each year, adding that real GDP will be 0.6 per cent lower in a decade than CBO’s earlier forecasts.

“In CBO’s assessment, the changes in tariffs will reduce the size of the US economy—in part because of tariffs imposed by other countries in response to the increases in US tariffs. After accounting for that change in the size of the economy, CBO estimates that the changes in tariffs will reduce total federal deficits by $2.8 trillion,” the letter said.

“Reductions in investment and productivity stemming from higher tariffs will be partially offset by increases in resources available for private investment resulting from the reduction in federal borrowing. CBO estimates that, on net, real (inflation-adjusted) economic output in the United States will fall as a result,” it added.

Fibre2Fashion News Desk (DS)

Two designers with careers on slow but steady boils, both working far distant from London -Rory William Docherty and Anamika Khanna from India- helped make exotic and inspiring additions to the last day of London Fashion Week.
 

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Rory William Docherty: Rock Pools and Sea Anemones

One of London’s most beautiful debuts was by Rory William Docherty, who has previously shown down under in Australia and New Zealand.

Of Scottish origin, Rory has divided his time between the UK and down under over the last 20 years, though it was a return to nature in New Zealand which provided the artistic impetus to this slow fashion collection.
 
The finest looks were his own bold blotchy abstract prints seen in some great dresses, elongated jackets, billowing jumpsuits and little skirts. Though the prints turned out to be culled from nature. 
 
“They were based around a camping trip. That type of reset you need after a season. When I escape into nature and need air. So, I was looking at the landscape – and at rock pools,” explained Docherty.

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Looking at nature also led to incorporating sea anemones growing on rocks as jewelry. Hand blown black glass beads seen on super sandals and bag straps. Even blown up into giant bags or exploded into a patent leather sculptural skirt.
 
Rory’s other explosion was the collar, which splayed out like a puritan on acid, and sometimes grew into a hood. The bold shapes, arty sense of volume and languid mood meant that the clothes recalled the great Japanese designers who have shown in Paris. That said, this was a powerful personal statement by Docherty, a designer and brand on a sure upward curve.
 
“Knowing that no one here would have heard of me before I thought it was really important to focus on my signature looks, and DNA,” explained 46-year-old Docherty. A strategy which this collection clearly showed had worked.
 

AK/OK Anamika Khanna: Toy synergy

To Hamley’s mid-afternoon Monday to catch the runway debut of the ready-to-wear collection AK/OK Anamika Khanna, a new line that debuted in Saks last year.

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Khanna has been presenting couture collections for two decades in India, but this marked the first Western unveiling of her fresh RTW division AK/OK Anamika Khanna.
 
The project is bankrolled by the giant Indian conglomerate of Reliance, which also acquired Hamleys in February for some £70 million.
 
Using the synergy, Reliance closed off the upper floors of Hamley’s, as the cast prowled around the toy store’s racetrack floor, amid Star Wars figurines, Marvin’s Magic lights and Gravity Defying mini drones.
 
On each seat sat a gift of an intriguing cloth emblem, hand embroidered for 20 hours, which set the scene. For this was a collection all about ravishing adornment. 
 
Opening with ivory silk jackets, chiffon shirts and silk dhotis finished with floral prints; or saucy corsets embellished with fabric flowers. Most looks anchored by very cool lace boxing boots.

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Showing plenty of range, she cut striking suits and redingotes in silvery silks finished with metallic embroidery or chain mail patches. Adding the odd metallic finish to jeans to toughen the look.
 
To Western eyes, Indian designers can often come across as a tad demure. Not Anamika, whose love of transparency was apparent.  
 
Emphasizing a whole boudoir mood, with bloomers, sheer chiffon blouses, cami-knickers and silver sequin bras. Amanika’s girls clearly want to have lots of fun, including Bollywood meg star Sonam Kappor, who sat front row. Hopefully her 34.3 million followers will soon she her in this collection, a definite hit from first to last look.