Business
Food exports stoke inflation fears | The Express Tribune
LAHORE:
As echoes of the US-Israel-Iran conflict ripple across global trade routes, a familiar dilemma is confronting policymakers in Islamabad, which is how to seize a rare export opportunity without letting it burn a hole in the pocket of the ordinary Pakistani consumer.
The federal government has recently green-lit exports of 40 food items to Gulf states, a move driven by supply chain disruptions that have left Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations scrambling for alternative food sources. For a country like Pakistan, which is hungry for foreign exchange, the decision looks commercially sound. But economists and market observers are sounding a cautionary note – what feeds the export ledger could also feed inflation at home.
The timing is delicate. Pakistan is still absorbing the aftershocks of successive fuel price hikes over the past year, with petrol prices now hovering around Rs321 per litre. In an economy where supply chains are heavily dependent on road transport, every rupee added to fuel costs translates directly into higher prices for food items on the shelf.
With global oil prices already edging upwards in the wake of Middle East tensions, Brent crude has closed this week at around $110 per barrel. Following this, the transportation cost burden on domestic food supply chains is unlikely to ease anytime soon. Add to this an export-driven reduction in domestic food availability, the recipe for another inflationary spiral becomes uncomfortably familiar.
“There is definitely a strong demand from Gulf buyers right now, especially for meat and rice. But if too much stock is diverted abroad, local prices will shoot up and that will hurt consumers,” said Haji Tahir Mahmood, a seasoned food exporter to Gulf countries.
He added that normally when the government allows export of any commodity, local prices increase, primarily due to middlemen, who stock them and wait for abnormal rate hikes.
“I am not sure this will happen this time around as not everyone can export. We want to export as Gulf prices are two to three times what we earn here, but if the government opens the floodgates without controlling local supply, meat and other commodity prices in Pakistani markets will go through the roof within weeks. We should export the surplus, not the staple,” Mahmood argued.
Pakistan’s headline inflation, which peaked at a historic 38% in May 2023, has only recently begun to moderate and currently stands at around 8.24%, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Food inflation, however, has historically stayed several percentage points above the headline figure. Vegetables, cooking oil, meat and rice, precisely the categories now earmarked for expanded Gulf exports, have been the most persistent contributors to household price pressures.
Convener of the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry’s Regional Committee on Food, Shahid Imran, however, urged Pakistani trade bodies and exporters to act swiftly to capitalise on the expanding food market access in Gulf states, arguing that the country’s strong agricultural base and diverse food production capacity position it well to meet growing Gulf demand. “If managed strategically, this situation can help Pakistan not only boost its exports but also establish itself as a dependable and long-term food supplier to Gulf nations, contributing positively to the country’s economic growth,” Imran said.
The opportunity, by all accounts, is real. Gulf countries collectively import over $50 billion worth of food annually and with traditional suppliers from conflict-stricken regions facing logistical disruptions, Pakistani exporters are already reporting upticks in orders for rice, meat, fruits, vegetables and processed food products including snacks.
Senior market analyst Muhammad Salman said that expanding food exports is absolutely the right decision and Pakistan must not miss this window. “But the government must simultaneously enforce a domestic price stabilisation mechanism. Export quotas and strategic reserves of essential commodities are not anti-export tools; they are the very instruments that make exports sustainable.”
Salman added that the Gulf opportunity is genuine, time-sensitive and strategically significant for a country that desperately needs to shore up its current account. “But export policy crafted in haste, without parallel measures to protect domestic food security and dampen inflationary spillovers, risks shifting the burden of this economic opportunity squarely onto the shoulders of consumers, who are already stretched thin. We should not forget the fact that a hungry population cannot support a thriving export economy.”
Business
Saudi Arabia pumps 7 million bpd via east-west pipeline amid Hormuz disruption – The Times of India
Saudi Arabia has brought its East-West pipeline into full operation, pushing 7 million barrels of oil a day through the route as it works to maintain supplies following the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a person familiar with the matter said. The pipeline, which runs across the kingdom to the Red Sea, has become central to efforts to keep exports moving. Oil shipments are now being rerouted to Yanbu, where tankers are loading crude for international markets, offering a crucial alternative at a time when the main passage has been disrupted, Bloomberg reported. According to the person cited by the agency, crude shipments from Yanbu have reached about 5 million barrels a day. In addition, between 700,000 and 900,000 barrels a day of refined products are being exported. Of the total volume transported via the pipeline, around 2 million barrels a day is directed to domestic refineries.Though, even at full capacity, the route does not fully replace the volumes previously shipped through Hormuz, which handled roughly 15 million barrels a day before the war, the availability of this alternative has helped limit the extent of price increases compared to earlier supply disruptions. Market concerns are now shifting towards the Red Sea after Yemen’s Houthis said they are entering the war. While there has been no indication of plans to target vessels passing through the Red Sea or the Bab El-Mandeb strait, the group has in the past threatened shipping in the region using drones and missiles. Saudi Arabia had long prepared for a scenario in which Hormuz could be shut. Its contingency plan was put into action within hours of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, with flows along the east-west pipeline increasing steadily since then. The pipeline stretches more than 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from oil-producing regions in the east of the country to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. It was originally developed in response to risks highlighted during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, when tanker attacks disrupted movement through the Strait, though the current situation has led to a near-closure on a scale not seen before.
Business
From office desks to dark streets: How the oil crunch is reshaping daily life in different nations – The Times of India
A month into the Middle East conflict, its ripple effects are felt across economies worldwide. The crisis was triggered on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran, setting off a chain of events that has tightened Tehran’s grip over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea passage, linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, remains one of the world’s most critical energy routes. At its narrowest, it spans just 29 nautical miles, with limited navigable channels for shipping.Carrying around 20 million barrels of oil daily, nearly a quarter of global seaborne trade, any disruption here has far-reaching consequences. As supplies come under strain, countries are scrambling to manage the fallout while cushioning consumers through a mix of policy responses. While some have raised fuel prices, others restructured taxes to protect consumers.
Vietnam
Vietnam consumers have breathed a sigh of relief as the country has lowered fuel prices. Faced with a sharp spike in fuel costs, Vietnam rolled out emergency measures to bring costs under control. Authorities have suspended environmental protection taxes on petrol, diesel and aviation fuel until mid-April, in a bid to steady the domestic market. The trade ministry described the step as “an urgent and effective solution to stabilize the petroleum market and ensure national energy security amidst the escalating conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which is creating the ‘biggest energy bottleneck ever’.” The move has led to a steep fall in prices, with petrol dropping by roughly 26% and diesel by more than 15% after earlier surges.
Venezuela
In Venezuela, prolonged high temperatures have intensified pressure on an already strained power system, prompting the government to scale back activity. Interim president Delcy Rodriguez announced a week-long suspension of work across the public sector, including education, as part of an electricity-saving drive. “During this Holy Week, I want to announce that I have decreed days off on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for the entire education sector,” she said, adding that the country had endured “45 days of high temperatures.” While essential services will remain operational, the step reflects ongoing challenges in managing electricity demand.
India
In India, the government has taken a range of steps to cushion consumers and companies from the ongoing energy supply crisis. With refining costs climbing sharply, the government reduced excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10 per litre each, despite the impact on state revenues. At the same time, export duties were introduced on diesel and aviation turbine fuel to manage supply pressures. Officials insisted there is no shortage of petrol, diesel or LPG, dismissing claims of disruption as a “coordinated misinformation campaign.” Domestic LPG availability remains stable, with production increased and states asked to expand commercial distribution.
Pakistan
Pakistan is facing mounting pressure from rising fuel costs, with the government adjusting prices selectively while trying to shield consumers. Kerosene prices have been increased by PKR 4.66 per litre to PKR 433.40, effective March 28, even as petrol and diesel rates remain unchanged at PKR 321.17 and PKR 335.86 per litre. Authorities said the decision aims to protect consumers from global price swings, with the state absorbing part of the burden through payments of PKR 95.59 per litre on petrol and PKR 203.88 per litre on diesel to oil marketing companies.At the same time, aviation fuel prices have surged sharply, rising for the fifth time in 28 days. A latest increase of PKR 5 per litre has pushed jet fuel to a record PKR 476.97 per litre, up from PKR 188 at the start of March — a jump of PKR 288. Airlines have already raised fares, with domestic one-way tickets on routes such as Karachi-Islamabad and Karachi-Lahore reaching up to PKR 40,000, while “chance seat” fares have surged by as much as 150%. Amid these pressures, work patterns are also adjusting in response to the energy strain, with measures aimed at reducing overall fuel consumption forming part of the wider response.
Egypt
Egypt has introduced a series of temporary restrictions to reduce energy consumption as fuel costs climb. Retail outlets, restaurants and cafes are now required to shut by 21:00 each night, alongside measures such as reduced street lighting and limited remote working. The government termed these “exceptional measures” in response to mounting pressure on energy supplies. Egyptian PM Mostafa Madbouly said that the country’s petrol expenditure had more than doubled in recent months. Although tourism-related businesses are exempt, the wider economy is feeling the strain, particularly due to reliance on imported fuel.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is tightening energy use as supply disruptions continue to strain the country’s fuel system. With around 60 percent of its energy imported and limited reserves covering barely a month, authorities have reintroduced a QR-based rationing system. Weekly limits have been set, including eight litres for motorbikes, 20 for tuk-tuks, 25 for cars, 100 litres of diesel for buses and 200 for lorries. Fuel prices have also risen by about 33 percent since the start of the war, adding pressure on households.To curb consumption, the government has introduced a no-work-on-Wednesday policy, shutting offices and schools on that day. Alongside fuel shortages, Sri Lankan citizens are also struggling with disrupted fertiliser supplies which could push food prices higher, with estimates pointing to a potential 15% increase, further compounding the cost-of-living strain.
Business
India opposes China-led IFD pact’s inclusion; flags risks to WTO framework and core principles – The Times of India
India on Saturday said it has strongly opposed the China-led Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement being incorporated into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) framework, flagging concerns over its systemic implications, PTI reported.The issue was raised at the ongoing 14th ministerial conference (MC14) of the WTO in Yaounde, Cameroon, where Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said such a move could weaken the institution’s foundational structure.“Incorporation of the IFD agreement risks eroding the functional limits of the WTO and undermining its foundational principles,” Goyal said in a social media post.“At #WTOMC14, drawing inspiration from Mahatma Gandhi ji’s philosophy of Truth prevailing over conformity, India showed the courage to stand alone on the contentious issue of the IFD Agreement and did not agree to its incorporation into the WTO framework as an Annex 4 Agreement,” he said.Annex 4 of the WTO Agreement contains Plurilateral Trade Agreements that are binding only on members that have accepted them, unlike multilateral agreements which apply to all members.Goyal said that as part of WTO reform discussions, members are deliberating on guardrails and legal safeguards for plurilateral agreements before integrating any such outcomes into the framework.“In view of the systemic issue at hand, India showed openness to have good faith, comprehensive discussions and constructive engagement under the WTO Reform Agenda,” he added.India had also opposed the pact during the WTO’s 13th ministerial conference (MC13) in Abu Dhabi.The Investment Facilitation for Development proposal was first mooted in 2017 by China and a group of countries that rely significantly on Chinese investments, including those with sovereign wealth funds. The agreement, if adopted, would be binding only on signatory members.
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