Business
Gold, silver outlook for Diwali 2025: How high could prices go after 50% surge? Analysts weigh in – The Times of India
As Diwali 2025 approaches, gold and silver markets have shown remarkable performance, with increases of over 47% and 52% respectively this year. On the MCX, prices have exceeded Rs 1,18,000 per 10 grams, leading investors to speculate about further growth potential during the upcoming festive period.Analysts, quoted by Economic Times, predict continued growth, with gold potentially reaching Rs 1.22 lakh by Diwali.The 2025 precious metals surge has been driven by various factors including festival demand, accommodative central bank policies, global political tensions and sustained ETF investments, leading to unprecedented price levels.Silver prices have also risen significantly, trading above Rs 1.44 lakh per kg, with projections suggesting Rs 1.50 lakh by the festival period.Renisha Chainani of Augmont Research anticipates a “bullish-to-consolidation phase” during Diwali, noting that whilst recent gains might encourage profit-taking, the overall positive trend continues. “Gold has surged past Rs 1,18,000 on MCX while silver trades above Rs 1,44,000, supported by safe-haven demand amid the US government shutdown, tariff uncertainty, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts,” Chainani told ETMarkets.Regarding Diwali 2025 projections for precious metals- Chainani forecasts that by October 21, gold could reach $3950-$4000 internationally (Rs 1,20,000-Rs 1,22,000 on MCX), while silver might achieve $49-$50 (Rs 1,48,000-Rs 1,50,000), particularly if global tensions increase. She notes that “key drivers of bullishness include dovish Fed policy, a weaker US dollar, continued ETF inflows, and robust Indian festive demand.“The industrial sector and green energy requirements could boost silver demand. However, she notes that market stabilisation could occur due to profit collection, US dollar strengthening, or reduced global tensions.Manoj Kumar Jain from Prithvifinmart Commodity Research notes that September’s performance, with gold increasing over 10% and silver 15% internationally, indicates a “super bull run” for both metals. Additionally, his predictions include gold reaching Rs 1,22,000 by Diwali and Rs 1,25,000 by year-end, with silver potentially hitting Rs 1,50,000 and Rs 1,58,000-Rs 1,60,000 respectively.Internationally, Jain anticipates gold at $3940-$4000 and silver at $48.40-$50 per troy ounce. Support levels are $3720 (international) and Rs 1,10,660 (domestic) for gold, with silver at $44.40 and Rs 1,34,400. Jain recommends: “We suggest buying gold and silver on dips for the target of Rs 1,22,000 and Rs 1,50,000, respectively and avoid any kind of short selling in both precious metals.”As Diwali approaches, jeweller and retail demand is expected to increase. Traditional peak buying during festivals and weddings could further strengthen prices already elevated by global economic uncertainties.Despite potential profit-taking opportunities, analysts maintain that fundamental factors remain positive, with any price decreases likely being temporary.Jigar Trivedi of Reliance Securities said, “By Diwali 2025, gold may trade around Rs 1,19,000-Rs1,20,000/10g, driven by global uncertainties, central bank buying, high inflation, Fed stance and a weaker rupee. Safe-haven demand is strong as geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown fears persist.”He adds that silver might reach Rs 1,48,000-Rs 1,50,000/kg, supported by industrial applications, particularly in solar energy and EVs, alongside investment interest. “Supply constraints and a falling rupee further fuel price momentum. With interest rates expected to fall globally, precious metals may gain. However, high volatility and profit-booking can cause short dips. Overall, both metals show a bullish outlook for Diwali 2025 in rupee terms, supported by macroeconomic trends, weak INR, and robust investor interest in hard assets,” Trivedi further added.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
Business
SBP receives final $1bn from Saudi Arabia, bringing total deposit reaches $3bn – SUCH TV
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has received $1 billion from the Ministry of Finance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, marking the second tranche of a $3 billion deposit agreed recently, the central bank said on Tuesday.
According to the statement issued by the central bank, the second tranche was received with a value date of April 20, 2026.
The first tranche of $2 billion had already been received on April 15, 2026, bringing the total inflows under the arrangement to $3 billion.
The development comes days after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia, where he engaged in diplomatic efforts aimed at promoting regional peace.
During his visit, the premier met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah and expressed appreciation for the Kingdom’s continued support for Pakistan’s economic stability. He also conveyed solidarity with Saudi Arabia in light of recent regional developments.
Earlier on April 16, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb had announced that Saudi Arabia would provide $3 billion in additional financial support, with disbursement expected shortly.
He also noted that Riyadh had extended the tenure of its existing $5 billion deposit, removing the earlier annual rollover requirement.
The Saudi funding has strengthened Pakistan’s external position as it repaid $2 billion in debt to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The amount was kept with the central banks as a safe deposit.
Saudi Arabia has been a key financial partner for Pakistan, having provided support packages during previous economic challenges, including a $6 billion assistance programme in 2018 comprising deposits and oil facility arrangements.
Business
How Trump’s psychedelics executive order could unlock stalled cannabis reform
Advocates attend a news conference about the “impact of incarcerating those charged with marijuana-related offenses,” and policy reform ideas, outside the U.S. Capitol on April 20, 2026.
Tom Williams | CQ-Roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images
A White House executive order on psychedelics, signed by President Donald Trump on Saturday, aims to speed up research on drugs like psilocybin, MDMA and ibogaine, helping to legitimize an industry that’s long lived largely underground.
But it also raises a broader question: Will psychedelics fall victim, like cannabis has, to a slow-moving federal process?
The latest executive order comes roughly four months after an effort by President Trump to reschedule cannabis, opening the door to greater research and investment opportunities. But since that directive, progress to reclassify cannabis has largely stalled, with the Drug Enforcement Administration review still ongoing and no final decision on moving marijuana from Schedule I to the lesser Schedule III.
The delay reflects how drug policy often slows once it enters interagency review, where scientific evaluation, legal standards and politics meet.
“The process has certainly been slow and frustrating for stakeholders when you consider they have spent decades fighting marijuana’s outrageous 1970s-era misclassification,” said Shawn Hauser, partner at cannabis law firm Vicente LLP.
Vicente LLP also serves as legal counsel for the National Compassionate Care Council, or NCCC, a coalition of health-care stakeholders focused on evidence-based cannabis policy.
The psychedelics order, however, focuses on research acceleration rather than legalization. It directs agencies like the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to expand clinical trials and “Right to Try” access for patients with serious mental health conditions, while leaving drug scheduling unchanged.
AtaiBeckley is among a number of psychedelics-focused drug developers whose stock is rallying since the order was signed over the weekend, up roughly 25% Monday. Several smaller-market cap stocks also jumped, including Compass Pathways, Definium Therapeutics and U.S.-listed shares of Cybin.
Hauser said the recent psychedelics order reflects a broader shift in Washington toward a medical-first framework and could mark a path forward for cannabis rescheduling.
“The science-, patient-, health-care-first approach is winning in Washington right now,” she said.
“The psychedelic pathway — built on physician-led protocols, clinical research and compassionate use frameworks — is actually a model cannabis advocates should be studying and adopting more aggressively,” Hauser said.
Safety first
Trump’s psychedelics measure has drawn particular attention for its inclusion of ibogaine, a powerful, naturally occurring psychoactive compound with long-standing safety concerns.
The drug is being studied for its applications with post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and addiction, but cardiac risks flagged by Nora Volkow of the National Institute on Drug Abuse remain a major barrier.
That tension is heightened by the expansion of “Right to Try” access, a federal law allowing patients diagnosed with life-threatening diseases or conditions to try experimental drugs when no other treatments work. This distinction typically applies only after Phase I trials are successful.
Ibogaine has struggled to meet that criteria, since most of the research into the drug has been conducted outside the U.S.
Psychedelic industry leaders say the order is meaningful, but the full impacts are still unknown until implementation catches up to prove scientific value.
“The opportunity now is not hype, it’s execution: rigorous science, disciplined safety standards, physician-led protocols and real-world outcome data,” said Tom Feegel, CEO of clinical neurohealth center Beond.
Beond, based in Cancun, Mexico, specializes in ibogaine therapy.
Feegel added that while the executive order signals legitimacy at the highest level of government, the next phase is critical.
Psychedelics still lack a commercial market, though clinical-stage developers, like AtaiBeckley, Compass and GH Research, are emerging. Many prioritize research around less controversial psychedelics like psilocybin and MDMA derivatives for mental health treatment.
U.S. states have been weighing the space, too. Colorado advanced regulated psychedelic access for its residents in 2022, while a Massachusetts ballot measure failed in 2024 with 56% of voters rejecting the access.
Cannabis, by contract, already has a multibillion-dollar adult-use industry across dozens of states, giving it a significant head start even as federal rescheduling remains unresolved.
Hauser argued the two industries are ultimately reinforcing one another.
“The two regulatory tracks aren’t in conflict,” she said. “Both are advancing the broader legitimacy of plant-based alternative medicines, and the infrastructure being built for one will inevitably support the other.”
Business
Hormuz disruptions hit China’s Christmas capital — and holiday spending
Christmas is still eight months away, but artificial tree maker Lou Liping is already worried about a bad holiday season due to the Iran war.
Lou’s company, Kitty Christmas Factory, has been making artificial trees for the U.S. and European markets for nearly three decades. Her facility is based in the city of Yiwu, known as China’s Christmas capital.
“Many customers … are holding off on orders,” she told CNBC last Friday at her showroom in the city’s international expo center. The center houses hundreds of manufacturers that contribute to the country’s vast production of the world’s artificial trees, tinsel, ornaments and other decorations.
An estimated 87% of Christmas decor sold in the U.S. is sourced from China, according to the American Christmas Tree Association, with much of it from Yiwu.
Lou said the disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and high oil prices due to the Iran conflict have raised her costs per tree by 10%. The base material of her trees is PET plastic derived from oil. The price of the PET in her artificial pine needles is up 5%, and the cost of the plastic used as packaging for shipments is up 15%, she said.
Lou said her revenue is down roughly 12% because of the lost orders.
Yiwu’s factories normally gear up in the spring to make sure that their products are on store shelves for the Christmas shopping season.
“The war happened at a bad time — right when we need to get our shipments out,” tinsel maker Yun Zhuomei told CNBC from her booth at the expo center. “It’s very painful for us manufacturers.”
Yun said plastic prices for her tinsel are up as much as 40%.
Chen Lian, who makes Christmas lights, said she fears further price increases, with suppliers all moving up delivery schedules to accommodate customers worried about transport delays.
“Everyone needs to deliver between May and August so demand is concentrated,” Chen said. “Material prices are bound to go up.”
To adjust, artificial tree maker Lou said she has accelerated shipments. And when her contracts with customers allow, she passes on some cost. For next year, she said she aims to design a wider variety of lower-end trees so more people can afford her products.
But for this season, Lou said American shoppers will likely be stuck paying at least 15% more.
“The price of Christmas trees in the U.S. will definitely go up,” she said. “It is unavoidable.”
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