Business
India Surges Ahead While US, China, Russia Struggle: Harvard Economist Reveals Stunning Post-Covid Growth Story
New Delhi: India has emerged as the world’s fastest-growing economy, leaving nations like the United States, China and Russia struggling to catch up. The post-COVID recovery of the Indian economy has astonished global observers, from the World Bank to the International Monetary Fund. Now Harvard economist Jason Furman has shared a chart, which illustrates India’s extraordinary pace of growth.
The chart shows that while major economies are still grappling with pandemic aftershocks, India has achieved a rebound, consistently maintaining momentum.
Jason Furman shared the comparative growth chart on X (formerly Twitter), highlighting India’s performance from 2019 through the third quarter of 2025. It contrasts India’s nominal GDP trends before COVID-19 with current data, along with major economies such as the United States, the Eurozone, China and Russia.
The data shows India rising steadily, reaching projected GDP growth of +5% by mid-2025, making it the only major economy maintaining continuous upward momentum.
The chart shows that India began its post-pandemic recovery from a low point in 2020 and surpassed its pre-COVID trendline by 2022. By 2024, its growth reached +3%, and projections suggest +5% by the third quarter of 2025.
Furman emphasised that India’s growth is not a one-time surge but a result of structural strength. He pointed to digital infrastructure, investment reforms and a stable macroeconomic environment as key factors driving domestic consumption and investment, allowing India to continue growing even amid global challenges.
Other major economies, in contrast, are still facing hurdles. The Eurozone experienced the deepest contraction during the pandemic at -25%, while China faced a decline of -10%. Russia’s economy fell by -8%, and the United States and India both saw a drop of -5%.
Although recovery measures have helped the United States reach an estimated growth rate of around 2% by 2025, India’s rapid pace far outshines it. China’s recovery remains constrained due to the long-lasting effects of zero-COVID policies and real estate crises, with projected growth of -5% in 2025.
Russia continues to struggle near -8%, influenced heavily by the ongoing war with Ukraine, while the Eurozone is projected to achieve only -3% growth.
Global rating agencies are also expressing confidence in India’s continued momentum. The Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) expects India’s GDP growth to remain strong at 7% in the second quarter of FY 2026, following a 7.8% rise in the first quarter.
GVA projects 7.1%, while Moody’s predicts 7% GDP growth for 2025 and 6.4% for 2026.
India’s post-pandemic economic story is now a benchmark for resilience and rapid recovery. While the world’s leading economies are still managing the lingering effects of COVID-19, India has firmly established itself as a powerhouse, combining policy reforms, robust domestic demand and structural stability to surge ahead on the global stage.
Business
PMI watch: India’s services growth eases in February as demand softens, costs rise – The Times of India
India’s services sector growth eased marginally in February as new business expansion slowed to a 13-month low, reflecting softer demand conditions and a rise in inflation, according to a monthly survey released on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index edged down to 58.1 in February from 58.5 in January. In PMI terminology, readings above 50 denote expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction. “India’s Services PMI registered 58.1 in February, largely unchanged from January’s 58.5, signalling another month of robust expansion in the sector.” “While new order growth slowed to a 13-month low amid rising competition, service providers saw a notable pick-up in international sales and responded with increased hiring to meet operational needs,” said Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC. According to respondents, some firms benefited from stronger client enquiries and targeted marketing efforts, which supported sales. However, others reported that an increasingly competitive landscape limited the pace of growth. External demand stood out during the month. Services companies recorded improved business from several overseas markets, including Canada, Germany, mainland China, Singapore, the UAE, the UK and the US. Overall, international sales rose at the quickest pace since last August. Cost pressures intensified for service providers in February. Operating expenses increased at the sharpest rate in two-and-a-half years, prompting firms to raise their selling prices at the fastest pace in six months. “Input and output price inflation accelerated, with firms passing higher expenses — particularly for food and labour — on to customers, yet business confidence climbed to its highest level in a year as companies looked to broaden their market presence,” Bhandari said. At the combined level, private sector activity strengthened further. Total business output across manufacturing and services expanded at the fastest rate in three months, supported by improved demand and higher new business inflows. The HSBC India Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 58.9 in February from 58.4 in January. “Overall, the composite PMI rose to 58.9, reflecting the fastest pace of private sector activity growth in three months, buoyed by strong momentum in manufacturing,” Bhandari said. Composite PMI figures represent weighted averages of manufacturing and services indicators, with the weights reflecting their respective shares in official GDP data. While the pace of new order growth at the composite level was broadly similar to that seen around the start of the year, hiring activity strengthened to its highest level since last October. Inflationary trends were also evident in the broader private sector, with both input costs and output charges rising at quicker rates. These increases reached nine-month and six-month highs, respectively.
Business
80% Stocks Already In Bear Market; Should You Buy The Dip Or Run For Safety?
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India’s Sensex and Nifty correct 6-7%, with 80% of stocks in bear territory. Monarch AIF reports 64% of stocks over Rs 1,000 crore market cap has fallen 30%.

Hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.
India’s benchmark indices may not show it, but a large part of the market is already in deep correction. According to a report by Monarch AIF, while the Sensex and Nifty have corrected only about 6-7 per cent from their record highs, nearly 80 per cent of listed stocks are already in bear market territory.
The data highlights a sharp divergence between headline indices and the broader market.
Majority of Stocks Deep In Correction
The report analysed companies with a market capitalisation above Rs 1,000 crore.
It found that over 64 per cent of these stocks have fallen more than 30 per cent from their all-time highs. Nearly 78 per cent have declined over 20 per cent.
In simple terms, most stocks in the market have already seen a brutal correction even though benchmark indices remain relatively elevated.
This unusual divergence has been playing out for the past 18 months.
Why Indices Are Still Holding Up
According to the report, Indian markets are witnessing a rare phase of simultaneous time and value correction.
A narrow set of large-cap stocks has kept the benchmark indices elevated. Meanwhile, hundreds of midcap and smallcap companies have quietly lost significant value.
This has created a misleading picture where the indices appear stable but the broader market has been under sustained pressure.
Now A New Shock: Middle East War
The situation has become more complicated after the recent escalation in West Asia.
Following US-Israel strikes on Iran, global markets have turned volatile and crude oil prices have surged.
Amid these developments, the Sensex recently fell over 1,000 points, while the Nifty slipped below the 24,900 level.
For investors, the challenge is that a market already weakened by months of selling is now facing geopolitical risks and a potential oil shock.
Should Investors Buy Or Wait?
Aakash Shah, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking, advised caution. “Amid persistent global uncertainties and elevated volatility, market participants are advised to maintain discipline and adopt a selective approach, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks during corrective phases. Fresh long positions should ideally be considered only after a decisive and sustained breakout above the 25,000 mark on the Nifty, which would signal improving sentiment and confirm the development of a stronger bullish structure,” he said.
Key Risk For India: Rising Oil
V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said the biggest concern for India is rising crude prices.
“With the war escalating and crude rising, markets are going into a period of heightened uncertainty. Nobody knows how long this conflict will go on and what will be the extent of the havoc it could wreck. From the perspective of India, which relies on imports for around 85% of her oil requirements, the real concern is the potential inflation and its consequences on economic growth. From the market perspective, the impact of potentially widening trade deficit, depreciating currency, higher inflation and perhaps lower growth is the real issue. If this fear materialises, corporate earnings will be impacted,” he said.
However, he added that the impact may be temporary if the conflict ends quickly.
“If it ends in, say 3 to 4 weeks, things will be back to normal,” he said.
Don’t Panic, Use Corrections
Despite the volatility, Vijayakumar advised investors not to panic. “Experience tells us that panicking and getting out of the market during uncertain times like these is not the right thing to do. Markets have an uncanny ability to surprise and climb all walls of worries,” he said.
According to him, investors with a long investment horizon and higher risk appetite can gradually accumulate quality stocks during corrections.
He added that sectors such as banking, pharmaceuticals, automobiles and defence may offer attractive long-term opportunities.
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March 04, 2026, 13:39 IST
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