Business
India To Become 3rd-Largest Economy With GDP of $7.3 trn By 2030: Centre
New Delhi: From being the world’s fourth-largest economy, India is on track to become the third-largest by 2030 with a $7.3 trillion GDP, the Union Government said on Saturday.
“India is projected to reach a GDP of Rs 4,26,45,000 crore ($5 trillion) by 2027 and is on course to surpass Germany by 2028. By 2030, India is set to become the world’s third-largest economy with a projected GDP of $7.3 trillion,” the government said.
This comes as India’s GDP growth accelerated to a robust 7.8 per cent in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year compared to the growth of 6.5 per cent during the same quarter of FY 2024-25, as per official figures released by the Ministry of Statistics.
“India’s strong services activity has helped GDP growth comfortably beat expectations for the second quarter in a row, rising to an impressive high of 7.8 per cent for April-June 2025. The swift growth in the first quarter of the current financial year further consolidates India’s position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy,” the government said.
The government attributed the momentum to “decisive governance, visionary reforms, and active global engagement”.
With easing inflation, higher employment, and buoyant consumer sentiment, private consumption is expected to further drive GDP growth in the coming months.
Further, the government explained that the sharp pick-up in growth in April-June 2025 has been catalysed by the services sector growth hitting a high of 9.3 per cent.
All components of the services sector, such as trade, hotels, transport, communication, and services related to broadcasting, financial, real estate, and professional services, and public administration, defence, and other services, have been on an upward trajectory.
The GVA growth, which is seen as a more meaningful measure of activity levels, registered a high of 7.6 per cent in April-June 2025. GVA is arrived at by subtracting net indirect taxes, indirect taxes after adjusting for subsidies — from the GDP.
“In our view, Q1 numbers reflect the basic resilience of our economy. On the supply side, we have seen an all-round growth. On the manufacturing, construction, and service side activity, as well as the fact that the agriculture side has shown robust growth. The rabi harvest, as well as kharif sowing, have been much in excess of the last quarter,” said Anuradha Thakur, Economic Affairs Secretary, Ministry of Finance
“We have a good buffer stock. We have had a good rainfall…On the demand side, the primary drivers have been domestic, and in our economy, net exports don’t contribute so much on the demand side,” she added.
Business
Middle East heat may ripple across India’s energy supply chain, flags Goldman Sachs – The Times of India
As tensions continue to heat up in the Middle East, concerns are raising about disruptions to one of the world’s most critical energy shipping routes, the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption could significantly affect major oil-importing countries such as India, as the narrow Strait of Hormuz is central to global energy trade. The strait sees almost 20 million barrels of oil passing through each day, or about a fifth of the world’s consumption, pass through the route. The waterway also carries roughly 19% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, making it a crucial corridor for energy-importing economies.A recent report by Goldman Sachs has flagged early signs of stress in the region. The report warned that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already begun showing signs of disruption, with shipping firms, oil producers and insurers adopting a cautious approach following reports of damaged vessels in nearby waters.According to the firm, financial markets have already begun factoring in the geopolitical risk. Oil prices currently carry an estimated risk premium of $18-per-barrel, reflecting the potential market impact if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted for about a month.
Even is the oil facilities are not directly damaged, a shutdown of the shipping route could expose a significant portion of global supply. The report estimates that in an event of full closure, about 16 million barrels per day of oil flows could be affected, despite the availability of some pipeline routes designed to bypass the strait.And the risks are not limited to crude oil shipments with almost 80 million tonnes of LNG exports annually, much of it from Qatar, moving through the passage. Any prolonged disruption could tighten gas supply globally and potentially drive European benchmark gas prices back to levels seen during the 2022 energy crisis.
Asian economies stand among the most exposed to such disruptions. Major importers such as China, India, Japan and South Korea depend heavily on oil and LNG shipments that transit through the strategic corridor.While global oil inventories and spare production capacity could help cushion short-term shocks, the report warned that sustained disruption to Gulf shipping routes could trigger sharp volatility in global energy markets and push prices higher across oil, gas and refined fuel products.Market participants and governments are closely watching tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, along with diplomatic and military developments involving the United States, Iran and Gulf nations, to assess whether the current disruptions remain temporary or escalate into a broader energy supply shock.
KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange rallied on Thursday after Saudi Arabia assured Pakistan of facilitating crude oil shipments through the Red Sea port of Yanbu Port, easing concerns over potential fuel supply disruptions.
The benchmark KSE-100 Index climbed sharply during the trading session, rising 4,439.93 points (2.85%) to reach an intraday high of 160,217.14 points.
Market Recovery
Analysts attributed the market rebound to renewed institutional buying and improving investor sentiment after Saudi assurances on oil supplies.
Market expert Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Commodities, said easing fuel supply concerns played a key role in the recovery.
He added that rising global crude prices, expectations of a new International Monetary Fund loan tranche for Pakistan, and positive economic indicators also boosted investor confidence.
Alternative Oil Route
Pakistan sought an alternative supply route after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global oil transit corridor.
Federal Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik held talks with Nawaf bin Said Al-Malki, requesting Saudi support for uninterrupted energy supplies.
Saudi authorities reportedly assured Pakistan that oil shipments could be routed through Yanbu, and one crude vessel has already been prepared for dispatch.
Global Oil Market Impact
Oil prices continued to rise amid tensions in the Middle East conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States.
Brent crude: up 3.26% to $83.99 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate (WTI): up 3.70% to $77.42 per barrel
Energy markets remain volatile as shipping disruptions threaten supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handles nearly 20% of global oil trade.
Analysts say the Saudi assurance helped calm fears about Pakistan’s energy supply chain, contributing to the strong recovery at the PSX.
Business
Asian stocks today: Markets inch higher mirroring Wall Street gains; Kospi jumps 10%, Nikkei up 1,400 points – The Times of India
Asian stocks inched higher on Thursday, after days of trading in red amid ongoing Middle East tensions. This comes as equities were lifted by a rebound on Wall Street as oil prices paused their recent spike and economic updates painted a more positive picture of the American economy. In South Korea, Kospi hit a pause on its downward rally to add a whopping 10% or 513 points, to reach 5,606. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also climbed 2.7% to 55,713. Hong Kong’s HSI also traded in green, rising 353 points to 25,603 as of 9:10 am. Shanghai and Shenzhen added 0.9% and 1.7% respectively. Gains elsewhere in the region were more modest. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.3% to 8,927.20, while New Zealand’s benchmark index moved 0.9% higher. In contrast, US futures indicated a subdued start ahead. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were almost unchanged, while S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.2%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8% on Wednesday, clawing back much of the decline seen since the onset of the Iran conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.3% gain. Globally, market sentiment has remained sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with oil price swings continuing to steer trading direction. Crude prices eased during Wednesday’s session. Brent crude briefly moved above $84 a barrel before settling at $81.40, roughly matching the previous day’s level. US benchmark crude edged up 0.1% to finish at $74.66 per barrel. By early Thursday, however, oil was on the rise again. Brent crude climbed 2.4% to $83.32 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark crude jumped 2.5% to $76.53 per barrel.
Middle East heat may ripple across India’s energy supply chain, flags Goldman Sachs – The Times of India
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